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Relative Reserve Outfielders (Split from Now What)

Nymr83
Jan 05 2007 03:20 PM

Vic Sage wrote:

3) We have an expensive over-the-hill RFer, and none of our young OFers (including milledge) have shown themselves ready to step up and fill that slot.
- Omar's solution: do nothing.


i think that between Milledge and Johnson we have among the best 4th and 5th outfielders in the league, Omar did ok backing up the fragile old men.

Vic Sage
Jan 05 2007 03:35 PM

Nymr83 wrote:
="Vic Sage"]
3) We have an expensive over-the-hill RFer, and none of our young OFers (including milledge) have shown themselves ready to step up and fill that slot.
- Omar's solution: do nothing.


i think that between Milledge and Johnson we have among the best 4th and 5th outfielders in the league, Omar did ok backing up the fragile old men.


you can think what you want, but neither of those guys have proven anything on the major league level, so while they have potential, they aren't among the best ANYTHING in the league.

And while i would agree that Endy Chavez, on the other hand, IS a damn good 4th OFer, he was last season's aqcquisition.

At any rate, we didn't need an upgrade at BACKUP corner OFer (ie, see Chavez, above). We needed 2 better starters than Floyd and Green. Alou and Ben Johnson don't fill that bill.

Edgy DC
Jan 05 2007 04:08 PM
Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jan 06 2007 05:01 PM

Millege and Johnson are the fifth and sixth outfielders right now, not fourth and fifth.

I don't know that I philosphically agree that something is not so until it's proven, especially something that's unproveable until the end of the season when the numbers are in. I decided to look at fourth-sixth outfielders league wide.

Team4th5th6th
ArizonaJeff DevanonChris YoungAndy Green
AtlantaMatt DiazScott ThormanKelly Johnson
ChicagoMatt MurtonBuck CoatsDaryle Ward
CincinnatiJeff ConineBubba CrosbyChris Denorfia
ColoradoCory SullivanJeff BakerChoo Freeman


Then I realized I have to get some work done and somebody else can can do the other 10 teams.

So far, Cincy looks good, but Conine and Crosby have as much to prove about not being too old as Milledge and Johnson have to prove about being ready and capable.

Colorado has a lot of young talent, though not a lot of power for a power-generating stadium.

Chicago is a mess. Their website lists no centerfielder on their depth chart, so I mentally stuck Angel Pagan there and took the next three, the third of which was their backup firstbaseman whose outfielding days appear over.

Edgy DC
Jan 05 2007 04:14 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 05 2007 08:19 PM

I split this scintillating mini-thread from the Now What thread, which was more about pitching anyhow.

Gwreck
Jan 05 2007 07:00 PM
Re: Relative Reserve Outfielders (Split from Now What)

Nymr83 wrote:
Omar did ok backing up the fragile old men.


Needless hyperbole - check the numbers.

Green has played 149+ games the last 9 seasons.
Alou might be a bit more fragile but has produced solidly desipte missing time the past 2 years.

Nymr83
Jan 05 2007 07:07 PM

triple post!

i wasn't the one who originally suggested they NEEDED backing up, i was only repeating what was said and offering my opinion that our reserve outfielders are just fine.

Edgy DC
Jan 05 2007 08:20 PM

I think it's neat-o that a post about needless hyperbole is expressed in triplicate.

Gwreck
Jan 05 2007 11:08 PM

I think it's terribly ironic (wiping the egg of my face here).

They might be old but they're not exactly Floyd-injury-prone-esque.

smg58
Jan 06 2007 12:27 AM

And 120 games of Alou would constitute a huge upgrade from what we got out of left field last season.

Edgy DC
Jan 06 2007 10:23 AM

Well, depending on whether Alou can maintain his 2006 level of production.

Keep in mind that Chavez was modestly productive in Floyd's stead last year, to the point where there was a controversy over whether the Mets should keep him in left even if Floyd was healthy enough to play.

But yeah, there's a damn good chance Alou could be a part of the team upgrading the positions OPS by 100 points or so.

PlayerGABSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Floyd9232760.248.329.413.742
Chavez439712.320.383.454.837
Milledge268111.235.303.383.686
Tucker163820.184.360.342.702
Woodward72000.200.273.300.573
Valentin61910.263.300.474.774
Marrero31000.200.333.500.833
Diaz4900.222.222.333.556
Ledee2400.000.000.000.000
Totals162605113.250.330.407.737
PlayerGABSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Alou9834521.301.352.571.923


Subjectively, do I still feel my team is vulnerable? Hell, yeah. But objectively, it's hard to look at the position and see it as unaddressed.

Vic Sage
Jan 06 2007 02:51 PM

Your observation that our LF position generated relatively meager production last year was the very point i started with.

the only question was whether Alou, who'll turn 41 in mid-season, and who has had 420 ABs and 350 ABs the last 2 seasons, will play enough to provide the increased production we need.

Assuming he gets around the same number of ABs this season (which is not a risk-free assumption at age 41), you still need to factor in the 250 or so ABs that we'll have to cobble together from other players. Is Chavez going to hit as well as he did early last season, or as poorly as he did late? Will Johnson or Milledge hit enough, or will they drag down the production, or will they even play?

I viewed LF as a hole this off-season, and i saw omar fill it with a pebble.

Elster88
Jan 06 2007 03:29 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
PlayerGABSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Floyd9232760.248.329.413.742
Chavez439712.320.383.454.837
Milledge268111.235.303.383.686
Tucker163820.184.360.342.702
Woodward72000.200.273.300.573
Valentin61910.263.300.474.774
Marrero31000.200.333.500.833
Diaz4900.222.222.333.556
Ledee2400.000.000.000.000
Totals162605113.250.330.407.737
PlayerGABSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Alou9834521.301.352.571.923



I feel somewhat better. Thanks EDC

Edgy DC
Jan 06 2007 05:03 PM

Vic Sage wrote:
Your observation that our LF position generated relatively meager production last year was the very point i started with.

the only question was whether Alou, who'll turn 41 in mid-season, and who has had 420 ABs and 350 ABs the last 2 seasons, will play enough to provide the increased production we need.

Assuming he gets around the same number of ABs this season (which is not a risk-free assumption at age 41), you still need to factor in the 250 or so ABs that we'll have to cobble together from other players. Is Chavez going to hit as well as he did early last season, or as poorly as he did late? Will Johnson or Milledge hit enough, or will they drag down the production, or will they even play?

I viewed LF as a hole this off-season, and i saw omar fill it with a pebble.


There's a lot of quesitons here. It's not like any answer would make them go away. We're dealing with likelihoods, not guarantees.

Would anybody who subscribes to any of those fancy projection sites like to post what the Mets left field projections look like if they returned last year's crew and what they look like with Alou, Johnson, and Newhan in the mix?

cleonjones11
Jan 06 2007 06:03 PM

Ben Johnson....enters minors 1999..show some power...makes majors in 2006 with 80 something AB's AAAA hitter?

We're not expecting him to make the big club..are we?

Edgy DC
Jan 16 2007 01:37 AM

Here's a possible lefthanded power source:



Mets Clear a Comeback Trail for Sierra
By MURRAY CHASS
Published: January 16, 2007


How can you like a guy like this?

The Mets are trying to sign the veteran Rubén Sierra to a minor league contract. He has played for nine major league teams, including two stints with the Yankees.


Rubén Sierra would be the first two-time Yankee/three-time Ranger to play for the Mets.
Rubén Sierra is batting in the ninth inning of a game against Texas, the last game before the All-Star Game last July. Minnesota is down by three runs with a runner on second base, two out and Joe Mauer on deck. Ignoring a take sign, Sierra swings at what might be ball four and misses, then strikes out for the final out.

How can you not like a guy like this?

The Twins released Sierra the day after that game, and the Mets wanted to sign him to a minor league contract last August with the understanding that they would recall him in September when rosters expanded. But Sierra’s mother had had a series of medical problems and he opted to take care of her instead of playing.

The Mets continue to believe in Sierra’s goodness and are in the process of negotiating that minor league contract with him.


Sierra's agent wooed the Mets with a vision of Sierra rounding third and heading for home, a brown-eyed handsome man.
“We haven’t finalized anything yet, but that’s probably what will happen,” Sierra’s agent, Chuck Berry, said yesterday.

The Mets have no immediate plans for Sierra, a 41-year-old outfielder, to make the major league team out of spring training, but he will be in their system if the need arises for a veteran hitter. In the meantime, he will be able to help the Mets’ young players.

“With the Yankees, he was known as something of a mentor working with younger kids and it was the same way in Texas,” Berry said. “People in those organizations appreciate how he has taken to helping kids.”



Sierra has had an unusual career. In 17 years of major league service spread over 21 seasons, he has been one of the most productive players in the American League and he has made more comebacks than your garden variety cat. He has undermined his career with a decline in his hitting and with a tendency to put his foot in his mouth.

“It’s like you don’t give a damn about me, just about the team,” he said when the Yankees traded him to Detroit in 1996. “They just give a damn about winning.”

He had previously made similarly silly comments about the Oakland Athletics, and years later he apologized to the managers he offended, Joe Torre and Tony La Russa.

“When he was playing in Atlantic City,” Berry said, “he went to New York one day, met with Torre and apologized. When La Russa was in Philadelphia, he did the same. He tried to make amends for some of his mistakes.”

At that time, Sierra, then 33 years old, was in a downward spiral, his career taking him to the unaffiliated Atlantic League and, the next year, to Mexico. People go to Cancún to seek sun and sand. Sierra, seeking to revive and extend his career, played baseball there.

“He went down as far as you can go,” Berry said. “He got a couple opportunities, then kind of disappeared. But he was fortunate. Hector Florin, a Cuban refugee businessman in South Florida, got to know Rubén, took him under his wing and encouraged and helped him. He also worked with him from a mental standpoint, like, ‘you’ve screwed up a lot; what do you have to do.’ ”

Sierra succeeded in reviving his career, playing for Texas and the Yankees again as well as Seattle and Minnesota. But he has not been able to recapture the slugging productivity of his early years. In the past seven seasons, he has hit 67 home runs and driven in 275 runs. Those numbers include his 23 home runs and 67 R.B.I. for Texas in 2001, the year he was named the American League comeback player of the year.

The overall drop-off was reminiscent of his loss of productivity in the mid-90s.

“He had an interest in a musical career at that point,” Berry said. “He cut some CDs. He lost a little bit of his focus and drive.”

If Sierra can demonstrate an ability to hit in the coming season, he could join Omar Minaya’s collection of aging, if not aged, players. Earlier this off-season, Minaya, the Mets’ general manager, signed the 40-year-old Moises Alou to play left field for a club that has a 48-year-old utility player, Julio Franco, and two 40-plus pitchers, Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernández.



Sierra’s biggest problem, Berry said, is his age, though not because of a decline in skills. “It’s the increase in injuries,” Berry said. “The body starts breaking down. That’s the problem Rubén has had. We’ve talked about how he trains to see if he can avoid injuries.”

Last year, injuries limited Sierra to 14 of the 74 games the Twins played while he was on their roster. But injury did not prevent him from signing with the Mets last August.

“His mother has had a number of medical problems,” Berry said. “He was taking her to Mexico for treatment and things got worse. She had a heart attack while she was there, so what we initially thought would be a two-week stay was a two-month stay.”

Sierra’s mother recovered, went to Florida, where Sierra lives, for treatment, then returned to Puerto Rico a healthier woman. Now Sierra is ready to play again in his latest comeback.

smg58
Jan 16 2007 07:50 AM

cleonjones11 wrote:
Ben Johnson....enters minors 1999..show some power...makes majors in 2006 with 80 something AB's AAAA hitter?

We're not expecting him to make the big club..are we?


He hits lefties fairly well, plays all three outfield positions, showed excellent power before last year (and plenty of veterans have seen their power numbers plummet upon arrival at PETCO too), his progress was stalled when he lost a full season to an injury but that was a few years ago and he's hardly old at 25 -- why not? I think he'd be more likely to make the club in a reserve role than Milledge, whom I think would need to beat Green out of a full-time spot to make the Opening Day roster. Newhan complicates things, but with Endy in place as the fourth outfielder and Green a liability against lefties, the Mets need an extra righty outfielder more than a lefty one. Plus I think Johnson is simply better than Newhan and will show that in the spring.

Nymr83
Jan 16 2007 08:13 AM

Johnson is an excellent guy to have around, nobody is suggesting he get handed a starting job, but he's a good player.

Johnny Dickshot
Jan 16 2007 09:34 AM

The Mets need Franco to retire is what they need.

Yancy Street Gang
Jan 16 2007 10:12 AM

Yes, I agree. Franco's a good guy and a good mentor, but he's taking up a roster spot that should be filled by a younger and more versatile player.

Make him a coach, or a minor league manager. I know Omar values him, and he may have good reason. But his most valuable contributions come off the field, not on.

Edgy DC
Jan 16 2007 10:18 AM

Thing is that, on the Braves, he was more versatile, because they used him to cover first base against lefties.

I don't think he needs to retire so much as join a team that could give him at-bats at first base or DH.

Edgy DC
Jan 16 2007 11:57 AM

Crazy thought. The Cubs have squat for a centerfielder right now and have followed a couple of free agency and trade routes and come up empty. Prospect Felix Pie is at least a year away (though his name is right now, baby!).

Maybe a trade of Endy Chavez might be in Omar's worldview while the bloom is still on his rose.

smg58
Jan 16 2007 12:30 PM

At this point I think Franco would be more valuable as a bench coach than as a player. His highlight for us last year was getting Beltran to make the curtain call.

I don't know if anything is up regarding Chavez. It's rare for an NL reserve player to have a glove that more than makes up for any inadequacies he might have with the bat, but he probably will never have more value than he has right now, and if somebody sees him as a starting centerfielder and is willing to pay a starting CF's price to get him, I'm listening.

Edgy DC
Jan 16 2007 12:58 PM

That inadequate bat, if you can imagine him sustaining that performance long enough to qualify, would have been fifth in OPS among National League centerfielders.

He may strike the Cubs as just the guy to hold down center until their prospect comes about. They have about eight starting pitchers right now, plus Kerry Wood and Glendon Rusch in the bullpen.

metirish
Jan 16 2007 01:07 PM

We'll need Endy when Alou or and Green goes down with an injury.....just my opinion but I see Endy becoming the regular right fielder in 07....

Nymr83
Jan 16 2007 01:54 PM

if we could actually get a decent starter for Chavez i'd do it and take the chance that when someone goes down Milledge will be ready. It should also be easy to acquire an aging corner outfielder with a semi-productive bat midseason if need be, compared to other positions they practically grow on trees.

DocTee
Jan 16 2007 02:09 PM

ESPN reporting that Endy just got a $1 million raise from the Mets

metirish
Jan 16 2007 02:10 PM

]

NEW YORK -- Outfielder Endy Chavez, whose spectacular catch in Game 7 of the NL Championship Series saved a two-run homer, agreed Tuesday with the New York Mets on a one-year contract worth $1,725,000.


Chavez leaped at the left-field wall to snare Scott Rolen's sixth-inning drive off Oliver Perez with a runner on, keeping the score tied at 1. Yadier Molina hit a two-run homer in the ninth, helping St. Louis win 3-1. The Cardinals went on to win their first World Series title since 1982.

Chavez, who turns 29 next month, batted .306 with four homers and 42 RBIs in his first season with the Mets. Because of injuries to Cliff Floyd, Chavez had 353 at-bats.

Last year, Chavez made $700,000. In addition to his base salary this year, he could earn $100,000 in performance bonuses: $12,500 each for 120 and 130 games, and $25,000 each for 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances.

Frayed Knot
Jan 16 2007 02:21 PM

metirish wrote:
We'll need Endy when Alou or and Green goes down with an injury.....just my opinion but I see Endy becoming the regular right fielder in 07....


At some point they're going to have to have faith that Milledge can be thrown into the deep end of the pool.
Endy is a valuable backup (at least as long as he proves that last year wasn't a fluke) but if he can help fish up some useful part elsewhere you can't vow to keep him around just as a hedge against injuries. He'd actually be most valuable if/when Beltran goes down since he's the only legit CFer on the bench (maybe Johnson?) but he's not a real long-term solution at one of the corners.

smg58
Jan 16 2007 03:29 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
That inadequate bat, if you can imagine him sustaining that performance long enough to qualify, would have been fifth in OPS among National League centerfielders.


I can't imagine it (Endy, feel free to prove me wrong on this one), but his glove still makes him valuable even if he reverts back to his previous numbers.

Edgy DC
Jan 16 2007 04:31 PM

Not saying it's likely, but I see no reason why it's beyond conceiving that a guy who does something over 353 at-bats can do it over 501.

More important would be getting a trading partner to believe it.

Fun fact: Endy went 2-12 during the World Baseball Classic, with both hits going for home runs.