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Lottery Thoughts

KC Mar 07 2007 12:44 PM

Like many offices, we got about 45 tickets yesterday in hopes of sharing a piece of the Mega Millions jackpot. a) I've always maintained that quick picks are the way to go because you are choosing the numbers randomly (in the same manner that they're being picked) and the odds of winning are astronomical enough without you also being so fortunate to have Jrs. birthday, your anniversary, your ATM pin, and your last cholesterol count coming up as well. I don't know if there's any statistical reasoning behind this, but it made sense to me the first time I heard the notion. b) There are like 45 powerball numbers and you need to hit the powerball number in addition to the other numbers ... should 1-45 be played sequentially on the tickets? Does this make sense? c) I also think the lottery is an additional tax on the naive and misguided.

Edgy DC Mar 07 2007 01:03 PM

Which makes it into a regressive tax. It's also a crazy fat opportunity for political patronage. How about those scratch cards emblazoned with the logo of your favorite sports team?

Vic Sage Mar 07 2007 01:14 PM

the way i understand it, the odds of winning are pretty similar (practically speaking) whether you buy a ticket or not. So, i'll take my chances by not buying one.

Frayed Knot Mar 07 2007 01:15 PM

a) statistical relevance [advantage] of quick-pick vs some other pattern? NO b) should 1-45 be played sequentially on the tickets? Does this make sense? Not sure what you're asking, but sequential vs not doesn't matter I never play those things, but a girlfriend once wanted me to pick some numbers for her, so I kept saying: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 She refused to play them since "that combo would never come up". My explanation that it had EXACTLY as good a chance as any other combo didn't seem to satisfy her and she continued to reject my reasoning. Not surprisngly, we no longer speak. c) I also think the lottery is an additional tax on the naive and misguided SHIT YEAH! Reasonable people can argue about whether the increased presence of gambling in our society is a good idea -- but I cringe at the gov't encouraging it, particularly when it's sold under lame and misleading slogans like; "all the money goes to education"

metirish Mar 07 2007 01:16 PM

I don't play,I have an aunt that won the lottery in Ireland years ago,I think that makes my odds of winning even worse....

KC Mar 07 2007 01:22 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 07 2007 01:23 PM

I mean, should "1" be played as the powerball number on the first ticket, and "2" on the second, etc. I don't mean they have to in order, just one of each number 1-45 represented on the forty-five tickets. You need to get that num- ber and you will have it one ticket.

Edgy DC Mar 07 2007 01:23 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Mar 07 2007 01:41 PM

No. The odds of both you and your aunt winning were worse before she won. Now that she has, you're no more astronomically unlikely to win than the rest of us. The argument against playing obvious patterns, like sequences or 8-6-7-5-3-0-9 is that they're more likely to be played multiple times by others playing obvious patterns, and so they're more likely to have multiple winners splitting a jackpot if they come up. So Knot's girlfriend was on to something. If it's going to be the longest of longshots, you might as well walk away with the whole enchilada. Call her now. It may not be too late.

Frayed Knot Mar 07 2007 01:34 PM

"So Knot's girlfriend was onto something. If it's going to be the longest of longshots, you might as well walk away with the whole enchilada." Except that her argument was not that it would be worth less if it came up, but that it had less chance of coming up. "Call her now. It may not be too late." Oh trust me, it is. P.S. I don't understand how the "poweball number" works so just ignore all my comments on that subject.

Centerfield Mar 07 2007 01:50 PM

Around the office here, people have felt compelled to tell me how they would use their money ("I would give $20 million to my parents, then $5 million to my brother..."). I follow up by asking them when the IRS comes knocking, would you ask for some of the money back or pay out of your remaining share?"

Edgy DC Mar 07 2007 01:59 PM

Well I lost an eye in Mexico Lost two teeth, where I don't know People see me comin' and they move to the other side of the road. I robbed a liquor store To make myself at home a few times Borrowed myself a car when I needed it. I got me a shack at the bottom of the road Fixin' cars and givin' tows Spend all my money on the lottery. When I win the lottery gonna buy all girls on my block A color TV and a bottle of French perfume When I win the lottery gonna donate half my money to the city So they have to name a street or a school or a park after me When I win the lottery Never run a flag up a pole Like Mr. Red, White, and Blue down the road But I never called myself a hero for killing a known communist. Now I can walk into any old bar Find a fight without looking too hard But I never killed someone I don't know just 'cause someone told me to. And when I win the lottery Gonna buy the house next to Mr. Red, White and Blue And when I win the lottery Gonna buy Post 306 American Legion, paint it red with five gold stars. When I win the lottery. When the end comes to this old world The rocks will cry and the rest will curl up And God won't take the time to sort your ass from mine. 'Cause we zig and zag between good and bad Stumble and fall on right and wrong 'Cause the tumbling dice and the luck of the draw just leads us on. And when I win the lottery Gonna buy all the girls on my block Silver-plated six shooters and a quart of the finest highland scotch 'Cause when I win the lottery The rocks will shake their heads and say that God is good but surely works in mysterious ways. When I win the lottery.

Frayed Knot Mar 07 2007 02:04 PM

I get a kick out of the folks who only play when the jackpot hits a real high ($100mil+) type of number -- as if the piddling $20-$30 million payouts aren't worth their trouble.

Yancy Street Gang Mar 07 2007 02:19 PM

I hate it when my co-workers do that "everybody chip in thing". For a long time I'd pony up my dough, not because I wanted to win (which of course I did) but out of fear of everyone winning but me. I once worked for a company that had only 15 people. If the other 14 all won big money and retired, I'd have to do the work of 15 people! I've since learned to just say no.

Nymr83 Mar 07 2007 03:34 PM

]c) I also think the lottery is an additional tax on the naive and misguided SHIT YEAH! Reasonable people can argue about whether the increased presence of gambling in our society is a good idea -- but I cringe at the gov't encouraging it, particularly when it's sold under lame and misleading slogans like; "all the money goes to education" personally i say if theres going to be gambling the gov't might as well be getting a piece of the action, in slightly decreases the tax burden on the intelligent people which is fine by me.

Yancy Street Gang Mar 07 2007 03:50 PM

I kind of agree with that. If all taxes were paid by chumps, it would be easier to avoid paying taxes.

RealityChuck Mar 07 2007 03:59 PM

The lottery is a tax on people who don't understand math. There's a greater likelihood that any given member of this board will commit suicide tomorrow than there is of you winning the Lottery tomorrow.

iramets Mar 07 2007 04:13 PM

RealityChuck wrote: There's a greater likelihood that any given member of this board will commit suicide tomorrow than there is of you winning the Lottery tomorrow. And a far greater chance that any given member of a Cubs' messageboard will commit suicide tomorrow...

Edgy DC Mar 07 2007 04:14 PM

You know, as long as we take an exploit the ignorant attitude toward taxpaying, the more we will find ourselves to be the ignorant exploited.

iramets Mar 07 2007 04:51 PM

It sounds like all you people know a good deal about odds, social economics, regressive taxation, allocation of revenue and lots of other intensely intellectual subjects, but I think with all your fancy knowledge you're forgetting one simple truth: "You never know." So don't tell me you do, because you don't.

KC Mar 07 2007 05:05 PM

"One never knows, do one?" -- Fats Waller

KC Mar 07 2007 05:14 PM

YSG: >>>I hate it when my co-workers do that "everybody chip in thing". <<< I could do without it. We have a very social and family type office ... it's not worth trying to go against the grain. The male/female ratio is very disproportionate ... they freakin' run circles around me.

SI Metman Mar 07 2007 06:46 PM

Yeah, but does your office have the nutty religious guy who becomes addicted to gambling when we all went in on a ticket? I swear I was almost going to have to take him to AC this weekend and let him cut loose.

KC Mar 07 2007 07:40 PM

Maybe he's an ex-gambler who replaced gambling with religion and this one small bet set him off. Compulsive behavior is fascinating. I can quit watching the Mets and posting here anytime for that matter. I just don't want to right now. Let us pray ...