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Defensive replacements
iramets Apr 07 2007 08:31 AM |
Rather than continue in a hostile (and shall we say "defensive"?) vein, let us examine the interesting issues (if any) in substituting a lesser-skilled offensive player late in a game for defensive reasons, and perhaps see if we have a more useful observation to make than "It happens." As I understand it, (please correct me if I'm misrepresenting here), we're agreed than managers sometimes put a defensive wizard in the the late innings in place of a starter with greater offensive skills. Edgy cited Gaspar for Swoboda/Shamsky in 1969 and several others as examples of this gambit. Where we seem disagreed is, I think, the value of doing so in close games, not-so-close games, and blowouts. I contend (I don't anyone disagrees with this) that such substitution occurs in all three types of games, for different reasons, certainly. We seem agreed that the most important type of defensive substitution occurs in a "one-run lead" situation. Edgy likened this to putting a closer in a game with a one-run lead, though I contend that putting Wagner in a game with a one-run lead in the ninth when he's well-rested is no gamble at all--it's as close as you can come in modern baseball to a no-brainer type of move, while putting (say) Endy in for Green with a one-run lead in the 9th is risky, in that, if that lead gets blown, you'd rather have Green batting than Endy, and Endy's defensive skills may not come into play in the one or two innings he plays in the OF. So, without belaboring the point, let me just say that such a substitution has risks and may not always be the smartest move. It calls for some managerial discretion. But this may not be what we're discussing. If anyone cares to clarify, or restate the discussion, I'm all ears. I suggested one way to see if defensive substitutions are used in one-run lead situations vs. multiple lead situations, but this may require too much work, especially if we're unclear what points we're trying to support. I'll volunteer to count up 1969 Gaspars, though, if anyone wants to suggest refinements on my methodology.
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iramets Apr 07 2007 08:45 AM |
Original discussion [url=http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6008&start=120] here [/url], around pp. 6 and 7.
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dinosaur jesus Apr 07 2007 10:33 AM |
I'd rather have Endy up than Green, but that's another question.
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metsmarathon Apr 07 2007 10:41 AM |
obviously, part of the consideration process is how much of a letdown there is between the starter's and the replacement's offensive capabilities. in terms of green and chavez, its a bit of a wash, with an argument that chavez is actually a step up offensively! (personally i think that holds true for the short term, but that chavez might get overexposed given a full season, and so is more valuable coming off the bench, and as an occasional starter) other factors worth considering are how soon the starter's spot in the lineup will be coming up and the abilities of your pen - flyball pitcher necessitating better outfield defense? strikeout pitcher? righty/lefty?
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DocTee Apr 07 2007 01:02 PM |
If putting Wagener in with a one run lead is "as close as you can come to a no-brainer" because he is not likely to implode, then the risk of substituting Endy for Green AT THE SAME TIME as Wagner enters is also a no-brainer: Wagner will not blow hte lead so Green's bat will not be needed.
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iramets Apr 07 2007 02:29 PM |
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That's not the reason I was thinking of. It's a no-brainer because that situation is the definition of Wagner's job. No one is ever going to criticize a manager for putting a closer in that spot, even if he implodes. I often suspect, in fact, that managers secretly would rather not use their closers in a "closer" situation (he's a little overworked, or the matchup sucks, or he hasn't been going so well lately) but he does it anyway because he knows he can cling to "But that was his spot!" if anyone dares to second guess him. Endy for Green is always going to be something of a judgment call. There's no book on when he makes that move, or even if he must in a particular spot.
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metsmarathon Apr 07 2007 02:53 PM |
is there really all that much of a difference in their offensive production? because endy is light years better than him defensively. if you were putting endy in for beltran, i'd understand the consternation better. but endy for green isn't much of an offensive hit you're taking, except maybe in terms of winning a game on one swing - but endy can keep an inning going, too.
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TheOldMole Apr 07 2007 03:37 PM |
Is the discussion about Endy vs. Green, or the theory of defensive replacements?
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Nymr83 Apr 07 2007 03:50 PM |
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if by "no-brainer" you mean the manager didn't use their brain then sure. but i think automatically going to the "closer" can be a dumbmove...if the starter (or the reliever who pitched the 8th inning) has already shown that he's "on" tonight why go to a guy who may not be? as for defensive replacements in a blowout, i don't think its "defensive" i think its just a matter of getting your starter out of there to rest him and/or avoid injury.
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iramets Apr 08 2007 07:27 AM |
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The latter. It's still a little unclear what exactly is in dispute here, so I'll wait for further clarification before I do much more research. So far I've uncovered the somewhat surprising (to me) info that Gaspar began 1969 as the everyday RFer, starting every game the first few weeks or so. He wasn't used as a defensive replacement for Swoboda until the 20th game of the year and even that one he started in center and was shifted to right (with Agee coming in the game for Swoboda) in the ninth. Retrosheet PBP below: METS 9TH: Gaspar singled to right; Gaspar stole second; Boswell EXPOS 9TH: GARRETT REPLACED BOSWELL (PLAYING 2B); GASPAR CHANGED So it was a tie game, the Mets went ahead by a run in the top of the ninth, at which point the Mets went to a defense-first team, a classic use of Edgy's defensive reasoning.
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iramets Apr 08 2007 07:39 AM |
Next defensive use of Gaspar for Swoboda came on the same road trip, against the Cubs. Another slide over from CF for Gaspar, but this one came in a tied game that the Mets lost, the winning run scoring just after Swoboda left the game. METS 8TH: PHILLIPS REPLACED W. SMITH (PLAYING CF); REGAN CUBS 8TH: Beckert flied to left; Williams singled to shortstop; METS 9TH: HICKMAN STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING RF); ABERNATHY Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 07:48 AM |
The third occasion of Gaspar replacing Swoboda (actually another use of Agee replacing Gaspar and Gaspar replacing Swoboda) came in the season's 24th game, also against the Cubs, also with a one run lead: CUBS 9TH: GARRETT REPLACED BOSWELL (PLAYING 2B); AGEE REPLACED Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 07:51 AM |
The fourth an identical situation (the same 3-2 lead, in fact) later that same day:
METS 9TH: ABERNATHY REPLACED PHILLIPS (PITCHING); Grote walked; CUBS 9TH: Santo struck out; Banks singled to left; N. OLIVER RAN Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 07:55 AM |
The fifth the next game, this time with a two run lead: METS 7TH: GRANGER REPLACED STEWART (PITCHING); Swoboda was REDS 8TH: GROTE REPLACED MARTIN (PLAYING C ); AGEE REPLACED METS 8TH: Boswell singled to second; Jones singled to right REDS 9TH: Perez struck out; May singled to left; Helms grounded Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 08:07 AM |
This post is not an instance of Gaspar coming in as a defensive replacement for Swoboda but merely an observation: Look at how many Mets changed positions in the top of ninth (in the next game, down by one run to the Reds): REDS 9TH: KOONCE REPLACED OTIS (PITCHING); KRANEPOOL STAYED IN Do you EVER see players routinely switching positions anymore in a game like this? It seems to me that, much like current pitchers have a Role That Must Not Be Violated, current position players take exception to playing multiple positions within a single game. (You'd never hear a discussion about Wright batting fifth or second either--players in my youth didn't seem to own batting slots or defensive positions as they do today). Certainly Gil changed his 1969 Mets like a poker player changes cards, and I guess I miss that strategic use of fielders. Seems like I got spoiled watching Gil manage.
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iramets Apr 08 2007 08:19 AM |
Okay, through May 31, there are exactly NO games where Gaspar came as a striaght defensive replaement for either Swoboda or Shamsky in RF (though I'll count the five games above, which have the same result). Not a little surprisingly, espcialy since Gil seems to have thought a lot of Gaspar for the first two months of the year. He pinch him quite a bit, but used him a sub for D pretty rarely, which is weird in light of Gaspar's eventual career numbers..
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iramets Apr 08 2007 08:26 AM |
AT LAST--the first pure Gaspar for Swoboda defensive substitution came in a fairly famous 15 inning 1-0 victory over LA: (obviously the game situation was a 0-0 tie--note that Swoboda had made the last out, and that this was a classic double-switch) METS 13TH: Jones flied to right; Kranepool singled to center; DODGERS 14TH: TAYLOR REPLACED SWOBODA (PITCHING); GASPAR METS 14TH: Grote flied to center; Weis popped to third; Gaspar DODGERS 15TH: Lefebvre doubled to left; GRABARKEWITZ RAN FOR METS 15TH: GRABARKEWITZ STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING 2B); MIKKELSEN Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 08:37 AM |
Here's the second classic double-switch (7th overall substitution of Gaspar in RF overall, if you're scoring) in the 57th game of the year, in a one-run lead, ninth inning situation: METS 9TH: BOOZER REPLACED G. STONE (PITCHING); Jones grounded PHILLIES 9TH: WEIS STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING 2B); GASPAR REPLACED Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 08:41 AM |
Here's the first pure defensive substitution of the year (no double switch) on my 16th birthday, June 18, 1969: PHILLIES 9TH: GASPAR REPLACED SHAMSKY (PLAYING RF); Taylor Final Totals R H E LOB Note the last two listed games were games where Dick Allen made the final representing the tying run. so far, weve got 8 defensive substitutions in all.
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iramets Apr 08 2007 08:46 AM |
Now, HERE's a weird little game, defensively speaking. Gaspar came in for defense for Shamsky (following a Shamsky HR in the 8th that put the Mets up a run--everything's straight vanilla so far, right?) but then Gaspar came OUT for Swoboda's glove in the ninth: METS 8TH: Garrett flied to left; Jones flied to right; Shamsky PHILLIES 8TH: GASPAR REPLACED SHAMSKY (PLAYING RF); Ryan doubled METS 9TH: WATKINS STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING C ); RAFFO REPLACED R. PHILLIES 9TH: GROTE STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING C ); SWOBODA STAYED Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 10:40 AM |
In game #61, on June 20th, Gaspar came in for Shamsky in a straight d-sub, with the Mets leading 4-3: METS 7TH: Boswell grounded out (second to first); Garrett CARDINALS 8TH: GASPAR REPLACED SHAMSKY (PLAYING RF); Torre METS 8TH: Kranepool lined to center; Grote popped to catcher in CARDINALS 9TH: Shannon struck out; JOHNSON BATTED FOR MAXVILL; Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 10:59 AM |
In the 64th game, on June 22nd, Gaspar came in from CF again to play RF for Shamsky to protect a 1 run lead:
CARDINALS 9TH: JONES STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING LF); GASPAR CHANGED Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 11:08 AM |
So that's 11 defensive substitutions of Gaspar for either Shamsky or Swoboda through June 22nd 1969. One further observation is that Hodges sometimes had ideal situations for such a move, and chose not to employ them. Viz. the next game against the Phillies: he had a one-run lead, Seaver pitching, Swoboda batted in the seventh innng, he had Gaspar on the bench--and Swoboda finished the game in RF. Not criticizing, just saying: METS 7TH: Swoboda flied to right; Charles walked; Charles stole PHILLIES 8TH: Rojas struck out; Callison walked; Briggs struck METS 8TH: Seaver lined to center; Harrelson flied to right; Agee PHILLIES 9TH: Ryan flied to left; Joseph grounded out (second to Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 11:22 AM |
In the 12th defensive subbing in RF, we have a new turn of events: Hodges used the Gaspar for Shamsky switch in a tie game, and the Phillies went ahead in the 10th, with Shamsky's spot coming up again: METS 8TH: Jones struck out; Shamsky flied to right in foul PHILLIES 9TH: GASPAR REPLACED SHAMSKY (PLAYING RF); On a bunt G. METS 9TH: Martin was called out on strikes; Weis grounded out PHILLIES 10TH: TAYLOR REPLACED CLENDENON (PITCHING); GROTE METS 10TH: Agee walked; Boswell out on a sacrifice bunt (pitcher Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 11:31 AM |
Here's a very interesting game: Gaspar came in for Shamsky in the 8th inning with the Mets up 4-0. As Gaspar stands in RF, not touching the ball at all, Koosman's control goes away, and Taylor comes in and he promptly gives up a grandslam pinch-hit HR to Vic Freakin' Davalillo. The Mets win it in the 14th. METS 8TH: TAYLOR REPLACED GAGLIANO (PITCHING); Boswell was CARDINALS 8TH: GASPAR REPLACED SHAMSKY (PLAYING RF); Flood METS 9TH: MAXVILL REPLACED DAVALILLO (PLAYING SS); HUNTZ CHANGED CARDINALS 9TH: MCGRAW REPLACED SWOBODA (PITCHING); GROTE METS 10TH: HOERNER REPLACED JOHNSON (PITCHING); Boswell grounded CARDINALS 10TH: Torre doubled to left; DAY RAN FOR TORRE; METS 11TH: WASHBURN REPLACED DAY (PITCHING); WHITE STAYED IN CARDINALS 11TH: Brock lined to left; Flood was called out on METS 12TH: McGraw popped to first; Agee singled to right; CARDINALS 12TH: Shannon popped to first in foul territory; METS 13TH: Jones popped to first in foul territory; Gaspar CARDINALS 13TH: Brock walked; Flood walked [Brock to second]; METS 14TH: WILLIS REPLACED GIBSON (PITCHING); Weis flied to CARDINALS 14TH: Maxvill flied to center; Huntz flied to left; Final Totals R H E LOB
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iramets Apr 08 2007 11:45 AM |
The July 9th game is probably the most famous regular season game of the year, if not of all Mets' history: it's the Jimmy Qualls game. It also occurred at the exact midpoint of the season (I did not know that), and contained an usual substitution of Gaspar for Swoboda, in that it came with a 4-0 lead, and it was in the midst of a flurry of other defensive manuevers. I'm not sure if anyone is reading this thread, or gives a shit about this subject anymore, so I'll stop pasting here, unless anyone wants to see the complete account of Gaspar's defensive subsititutions for Shamsky and Swoboda. METS 7TH: Pfeil flied to left; Jones homered; Clendenon grounded CUBS 8TH: GARRETT REPLACED CHARLES (PLAYING 2B); PFEIL CHANGED METS 8TH: Grote grounded out (third to first); Weis singled to CUBS 9TH: Hundley grounded out (pitcher to first); Qualls Final Totals R H E LOB
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Nymr83 Apr 08 2007 12:28 PM |
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i'm interested in the larger subject or when a defensive replacement is or isn't a good idea, but i don't care too much about these particular players/examples from 40 years ago.
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iramets Apr 08 2007 12:50 PM |
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I could give you a summary of the whole season, which I'm leading up to, without all the details. (how many total substitutions, how many with a lead, how many tied, etc.)
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Nymr83 Apr 08 2007 03:54 PM |
thats all i'd want to see, i can't speak for anyone else though
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