Master Index of Archived Threads


Win Predictor Fun

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 12:40 PM

You all saw the home opener and the see-saw battle that ultimately sawed decisevely in the Mets favor. What was the big blow --- the offensive play that advanced the Mets cause most effectively? For definition's sake, I used the win expectance finder to calculate the value of the various Mets' offensive plays.

Centerfield Apr 12 2007 12:50 PM

I don't know about "big blow", but the one play that made me shift from pessimistic to optimistic was the walk to Old Man Franco.

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 12:55 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 12 2007 12:56 PM

Good choice. That was the third-most-damaging offensive play by a Met, advancing their win probablility (based on 2001-2006 game data) by 19.2 percentage points, from 38.2% to 57.4%. One reason why pinch-hitters matter. They may only get 20 hits in a season, but they're in high-leverage spots. Go old guy.

TransMonk Apr 12 2007 12:56 PM

Yup, I agree with CF...I was expecting an inning ending DP from Julio.

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 12:58 PM

Ah, monk, you're in new territory. I'm measuring the difference between where a team starts and where a team ends. You're measuring the difference between where a team ends up and where they could have ended up given the worst possible outcome.

metirish Apr 12 2007 01:01 PM

That's really cool,and it's based on real data,right?.....Joe Morgan would love it.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 12 2007 01:12 PM

How about Wright's double?

Johnny Dickshot Apr 12 2007 01:20 PM

Was it Rollins' error?

holychicken Apr 12 2007 01:21 PM Re: Win Predictor Fun

Edgy DC wrote: You all saw the home opener and the see-saw battle that ultimately sawed decisevely in the Mets favor. What was the big blow --- the offensive play that advanced the Mets cause most effectively? For definition's sake, I used the win expectance finder to calculate the value of the various Mets' offensive plays. Do you also use this win expectance finder to determine your PoTG points?

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 01:37 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: How about Wright's double? Wright's double was vicious, but the Mets were already up by a few and it was late. It advanced the likelihood of a Mets win 3.3 points, from 94.3 %to 97.6%. The game wasn't in bed, but the lights were out and the covers were pulled. ="Johnny Dickshot"]Was it Rollins' error? Very very close. Reyes' conspiring hit to Mr. Team-to-Beat pushed our scheme ahead by 22.8 points, from 57.4% to 80.2%. Rollins might have realized that, though his team led in score, they trailed in probablility. Had Rollins relaxed and gotten the runner at second, the Mets would certainly have advanced less, from 57.4% to 72.5%. The double play would have cut the Mets chances all the way down to 14.6%. So was it worth the gamble to rush the play going for two? I dunno, depends on what you thought of Reyes' running that one out. Frayed Knot can help us here. But there was one other play that pushed the Flushing Nine cause ahead by 22.9 points. What was it? ="holychicken"]Do you also use this win expectance finder to determine your PoTG points? No, but I'd consider it.

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 01:40 PM

By the way, I'm taking 2001-2006 data.

metirish Apr 12 2007 01:41 PM

The wild pitch by Geary?

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 01:49 PM

That brought in the go-ahead run, but the likeliness that it was going to be brought in one way or another at that point apparently supressed the overall statistical impact. It advanced the marker 12.1 points, from 80.2% to 92.3%. I thought Barajas should have partial blame on that one. It wasn't that unplayable.

metirish Apr 12 2007 01:52 PM

This is fun,it must be the sac-fly by Beltran.

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 02:00 PM

Two guesses is your limit. You're driving.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 12 2007 02:05 PM

Whatever LoDuca did after Reyes. Walk, I believe

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 02:12 PM

Most of what Lo Duca's walk would have accomplished was already accomplished in the wild pitch. The walk only advanced the Mets 1.8 points, from 92.1% to 93.9%.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 12 2007 02:15 PM

Yeah, that's why it wasn't my first guess.

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 02:19 PM

Two things that the predictor has taught me have grossly over-rated value, that should be evident but aren't always. Sacrifice bunts Walks behind runners on second and third.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 12 2007 02:30 PM

See the next page...

Benjamin Grimm Apr 12 2007 02:31 PM

Here's the inning: - M. Alou singled to deep right center - S. Green singled to left, M. Alou to second - E. Chavez ran for S. Green - J. Valentin grounded into fielder's choice, M. Alou out at third, E. Chavez to second - J. Franco hit for P. Feliciano - J. Franco walked, E. Chavez to third, J. Valentin to second Edgy DC wrote: That was the third-most-damaging offensive play by a Met, advancing their win probablility (based on 2001-2006 game data) by 19.2 percentage points, from 38.2% to 57.4%. - J. Reyes reached on fielder's choice, E. Chavez scored, J. Valentin to third, J. Franco to second on J. Rollins' fielding error Edgy DC wrote: Reyes' conspiring hit to Mr. Team-to-Beat pushed our scheme ahead by 22.8 points, from 57.4% to 80.2%. - J. Valentin scored, J. Franco to third, J. Reyes to second on wild pitch Edgy DC wrote: That brought in the go-ahead run, but the likeliness that it was going to be brought in one way or another at that point apparently supressed the overall statistical impact. It advanced the marker 12.1 points, from 80.2% to 92.3%. - P. Lo Duca walked Edgy DC wrote: Most of what Lo Duca's walk would have accomplished was already accomplished in the wild pitch. The walk only advanced the Mets 1.8 points, from 92.1% to 93.9%. - J. Lieber relieved J. Lieber - C. Beltran hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Franco scored - C. Delgado walked, J. Reyes to third, P. Lo Duca to second - D. Wright doubled to deep left, P. Lo Duca and J. Reyes scored, C. Delgado to third Edgy DC wrote: Wright's double was vicious, but the Mets were already up by a few and it was late. It advanced the likelihood of a Mets win 3.3 points, from 94.3 %to 97.6%. The game wasn't in bed, but the lights were out and the covers were pulled. - M. Alou singled to left, C. Delgado and D. Wright scored - E. Chavez grounded out to shortstop So the big leap had to have come early in the inning. Interesting. My second (and final) guess: Green's single?

metirish Apr 12 2007 02:33 PM

I think we found a new game to entertain us.

Edgy DC Apr 12 2007 02:44 PM

No to Green's single and no to Beltran's sac fly. It's 4:42, so I'll lay the numbers out now. Two notes before I do: We shouldn't be arguing about leaving Burgos' in to pitch. We maybe should be arguing about bunting Valentin. Getting the runner at third there was huge for the Phillies (not huge enough, in the end, from 78.0% to 38.2%. It's the sort of play that makes one (again) appreciate Keith Hernandez. Howard's homer nonetheless cut the Mets win expectancy from 65.2% to 28.7%. Ouch. Here we go. Delgado's second-inning single: .584 to .623 = .039 Maine's third-inning single: .450 to .478 = .028 Reyes's third-inning single: .478 to .498 = .020 Beltran's fourth-inning single: .468 to .523 = .055 Delgado's fourth-inning single: .523 to .562 = .039 Green's fourth-inning walk: .439 to .429 = -.020 Valentin's fourth-inning two-RBI two-out single, swinging a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead with two out: .439 to .668 = .229 Reyes's fifth-inning reach on a 2-base error: .598 to .672 = .074 Lo Duca's fifth-inning "productive out," moving Reyes to third: .672 to .637 = -.035 Beltran's fifth-inning walk: .637 to .626 = -.011 Delgado's fifth-inning sacrifice fly: .626 to .720 = .094 Beltran's fifth-inning caught stealing: .720 to .688 = -.032 Alou's sixth-inning walk: .248 to .286 = .038 Lo Duca's seventh-inning single: .162 to .178 = .016 Beltran's seventh-inning walk: .178 to .235 = .057 Delgado's seventh-inning RBI single: .235 to .301 = .066 Alou's eighth-inning leadoff single: .295 to .419 = .124 Green's eighth-inning single: .419 to .580 = .161 Franco's eighth-inning four-pitch walk: .382 to .574 = .192 Reyes's eighth-inning tie-run-scoring grounder to Jimmy Rollins who misplays it: .574 to .802 = .228 Lo Duca's standing there as Geary wild-pitches in the go-ahead run: .802 to .923 = .121 Lo Duca's eighth-inning walk: .921 to .939 = .018 Beltran's eighth-inning RBI sacrifice fly: .939 to .979 = .040 Delgado's eighth-inning walk: .979 to .943 = -.036 Wright's eighth-inning two-run double: .943 to .976 = .033 Alou's eighth-inning two-run single: .976 to 1.000 = .034

A Boy Named Seo Apr 12 2007 04:11 PM

From FanGraphs.com: The [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2007-04-09&team=Mets&dh=0]play log[/url] has win expectancy for ever batter of the game, plus some other neat stuff. Edit: Got rid of the graph. I don't want to fuck up the game. You can still get it [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20070409_Phillies_Mets_0.png]here[/url].

Nymr83 Apr 12 2007 05:31 PM

cool toy. Rollins' leadoff homer dropped the Mets chances from.540 to .440, going with only 2000-2006 it went from .539 to .431 I'm suprised. that means that in the past few seasons a lead-off homer is slightly MORE likely to hold up than it was in the past, i'd think the greater frequency of runs scored would make the opposit true. i guess the sample size is a bit small, i'll have to play with it later

Nymr83 Apr 12 2007 05:32 PM

edit- wrong thread

holychicken Apr 13 2007 07:54 AM

A Boy Named Seo wrote: From FanGraphs.com: The [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2007-04-09&team=Mets&dh=0]play log[/url] has win expectancy for ever batter of the game, plus some other neat stuff. Edit: Got rid of the graph. I don't want to fuck up the game. You can still get it [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20070409_Phillies_Mets_0.png]here[/url]. Anyone a programmer (besides me) who is motivated (probably not me)? I think it would be interesting to use this tool to grab the data from every game and calculate which players contribute the most to increasing (and decreasing) our probability of winning over the season. As I mentioned to edgy in another thread, this might be a interesting way to generate another "PoTG" type of ranking. Any takers? Or am I the only programmer here?

Edgy DC Apr 13 2007 08:02 AM

I think, and have always thought, it's an excellent way to compare players and generate MVP candidates and such. The thing is that a tool like this can both (1) iron out clutch performances over the long haul, and (2) reward you with credit (and no more or less than you actually deserve) when you actually are clutch. It's also a good way to see if late inning relievers and pinch-hitters actually belong where we put them, value-wise. They give you fewer reps but in high-leverage situations, and this system measures the leverage. By this system, in a typical year, a team with the bases loaded, down by three, with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, has a 10% chance of winning. A player who hits a grand slam in such a situation would get credit for .90 win shares. If he makes the final out, he gets -.10 win shares. Of course, in order to get a keep a bunch of people from hovering around zero, you'd still want a computation to distinguish his performance from that of a replacement player.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 13 2007 08:03 AM

holychicken wrote: ="A Boy Named Seo"]From FanGraphs.com: The [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2007-04-09&team=Mets&dh=0]play log[/url] has win expectancy for ever batter of the game, plus some other neat stuff. Edit: Got rid of the graph. I don't want to fuck up the game. You can still get it [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/tgraphs/20070409_Phillies_Mets_0.png]here[/url]. Anyone a programmer (besides me) who is motivated (probably not me)? I think it would be interesting to use this tool to grab the data from every game and calculate which players contribute the most to increasing (and decreasing) our probability of winning over the season. As I mentioned to edgy in another thread, this might be a interesting way to generate another "PoTG" type of ranking. Any takers? Or am I the only programmer here? I was thinking the same thing. I might be willing to program a spreadsheet, but I won't take custody of tracking the results.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 13 2007 09:26 AM

Okay, I went ahead and did it. I slapped together a little spreadsheet that counts up the "points" for each player. Paste the table from this page (this is from April 9) into the spreadsheet, run a macro, and you get the following results. J Rollins -0.087 J Maine -0.094 S Victorino 0.151 C Utley 0.017 J Reyes 0.269 C Hamels -0.115 P Lo Duca -0.06 C Beltran 0.089 R Howard 0.319 P Burrell 0.005 C Ruiz -0.069 A Rowand 0.099 A Nunez -0.083 C Delgado 0.323 D Wright -0.238 M Alou 0.05 S Green 0.095 J Valentin 0.164 A Burgos -0.297 J Smith 0.037 D Easley -0.04 M Smith -0.128 G Geary -0.531 P Feliciano 0.055 J Franco 0.147 J Lieber -0.081 E Chavez 0 B Wagner 0.003 What's cool about this is that players can get negative points as well as positive points. If anyone wants to take ownership of this just let me know and I'll send you the spreadsheet. You'd have to come up with your own way of tracking season totals. And you'd also have to filter out the numbers for the opposing players.

holychicken Apr 13 2007 09:36 AM

How would one determine VORP?

metsmarathon Apr 13 2007 09:38 AM

well, you could just go [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2007]here[/url] or [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Mets&season=2007]here[/url] and get the totals there! granted, that's just not as much fun! oh, and jose reyes is the NL leader, with a win percentage added of almost 0.800, while arod leads all players with a 1.01

Edgy DC Apr 13 2007 09:45 AM

How are you crediting the ptichers? Do they get full credit for all outs they get, or do they share it with the defense?

metsmarathon Apr 13 2007 09:46 AM

and therein lies the flaw!

Willets Point Apr 13 2007 09:48 AM

You guys are so wonderfully geeky. I don't think I could ever fathom what you're doing but more power to you.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 13 2007 09:49 AM

Edgy DC wrote: How are you crediting the ptichers? Do they get full credit for all outs they get, or do they share it with the defense? It seems like it would go to the pitcher for getting the out. Players get credit for reaching base on an error. And I think the pitcher would be penalized for the error even if someone else made it.

metsmarathon Apr 13 2007 09:50 AM

and yancy, take the info from the game graphs or the box score page, and the teams won't be intermingled. you'll still have to combine your pitchers' contributions with the bat into his contributions with his arm, but its a start...

Benjamin Grimm Apr 13 2007 09:51 AM

I've taken this as far as I care to. The intermingled players are easy enough to sort out.

Edgy DC Apr 13 2007 10:06 AM

If pitchers get 100% of the credit for all outs, they'll win big time.

metsmarathon Apr 13 2007 10:12 AM

y'know, it doesn't seem to play out that way. last year: beltran - 5.21 wright - 4.64 delgado - 3.11 reyes - 2.11 ... pedro - 0.60 bannister - 0.53 glavine - 0.46 ... wagner - 3.52 sanchez - 1.95 heilman - 1.58 and actually, if i counted their offensive contributions as well, pedro and glavine would both be in the negatives! the reasoning being that by holding your opponent scoreless early in the game, you're not really contributing to your team winning so much as merely holding serve. at least, that's the best i could make of it. to clarify, if the score is tied at the start and end of an inning, the win expectancy should remain virtually unchanged. only once you have a run differential does the win probability change after a scoreless inning.

Edgy DC Apr 13 2007 10:17 AM

Unfortunately, they get 100% of the blame for hits and shit also.

holychicken Apr 13 2007 12:58 PM

metsmarathon wrote: well, you could just go [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2007]here[/url] or [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Mets&season=2007]here[/url] and get the totals there! granted, that's just not as much fun! oh, and jose reyes is the NL leader, with a win percentage added of almost 0.800, while arod leads all players with a 1.01 Nice to ruin our fun, jerk. :( But anyway. . . as others have already illustrated Imagine a game where two pitchers throw perfect games into the 9th and then in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs the guy pinch-hitting for the pitcher hits a homerun. He wasn't in the game at all until that point so he did almost nothing ESPECIALLY compared to the pitcher and he would get all of the credit for the win and the other pitcher would get the entire credit for the loss. I am wondering if there is anyway to edit the win predictor % to account for this . . . or to have an entirely different graph that favors the pitcher more than this seems to favor the hitters.

Willets Point Apr 13 2007 01:04 PM

holychicken wrote: Imagine a game where two pitchers throw perfect games into the 9th and then in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs the guy pinch-hitting for the pitcher hits a homerun. That sounds like a beautiful game that I would like to see.

Edgy DC Apr 13 2007 01:13 PM

The losing pitcher wouldn't get all the blame. The lion's share would go to his failing hitters.

Edgy DC Apr 13 2007 01:40 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 13 2007 02:07 PM

Using 2001-2006 data, I calculate that the ill-begotten losing pitcher (or the defense) would have had .697 win shares (where a team nets 1.0 for a win and 0.0 for a loss) before the homer and a mere .27 on the day after the homer. Subtract from that the -.10 his hitting would have garnered, and it hardly seems worth the effort. But measuered against the perfomance of a theoretical replacement player, I'm sure his day would prove statistically worthwhile, if epically disappointing.

metsmarathon Apr 13 2007 02:05 PM

Willets Point wrote: ="holychicken"] Imagine a game where two pitchers throw perfect games into the 9th and then in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs the guy pinch-hitting for the pitcher hits a homerun. That sounds like a beautiful game that I would like to see. actually, i've done more thinking... the value of keeping the score tied for each inning is as follows, for home and away pitchers: inning Home P Away P 1 0.051 0.058 2 0.049 0.049 3 0.049 0.057 4 0.065 0.061 5 0.066 0.073 6 0.078 0.080 7 0.089 0.088 8 0.114 0.113 9 0.134 0.136 total 0.695 0.715 home teams have about a 2% better chance of winning a given game! oh, and i used the 1977-2006 data... so the starters wouldnt get totally hosed... well, the losing starter would get kinda hosed.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 13 2007 02:14 PM

I like this stuff, even if I can't do it. Here's a suggestion: Rather than screwing up "your vote" as to Schaefer PoTG by using things like this, why doncha create a "character" who will? You know what I'm saying? You could call it MetBot. We could all judge our own interpretations against him, or perhaps, use him for guidance. MetBot could crunch all numbers here using whatever stuff you come up with.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 17 2007 08:06 AM

Scutaro breaks the meter:

Edgy DC Apr 17 2007 08:36 AM

They should paint that on the scoreboard and wear it on their jerseys.