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DEE-FENCE!!!!

Frayed Knot Apr 19 2007 10:54 AM

[url=http://www.hardballtimes.com/main]The Hardball Times[/url] (under 'Ten Things I Didn't Know Last Week' - 4/19) uncovers an whopping truth about the season so far: The NYM defense is playing well!!! Well yeah, you probably alreay knew that, but they unearth a few choice nuggets. An NL best "defensive efficiency" makes up for our NL worst "fielding independant" pitching. The chart shows defensive efficiency as the Y axis (pct of in-park batted balls turned into outs). Higher = better The X-axis shows Fielding independant ERA - an estimate of how the pitchers would look based on their walks, Ks & HRs surrended while backed with a hypotheically average defense and average "luck". Further left = higher expected ERA. Main sources of our good fortune: * 21% of all the flyballs allowed by the Mets have been infield flies. That's a whopping total (average is 12%) and explains why the Mets' batted balls have been so "fieldable." * The Mets outfield has been average, but the infield has converted 83% of all ground balls into outs. The major league average is 75%. * 86% of all men to reach base have been left there (league avg = 73%) That's because opponents are batting only .120 with men in scoring position. The Mets lead the major leagues in all of the above categories

MFS62 Apr 19 2007 11:04 AM

Do they also lead the league in DPs? They seem to have turned a lot of those this year. Later

Rotblatt Apr 19 2007 11:15 AM

MFS62 wrote: Do they also lead the league in DPs? They seem to have turned a lot of those this year. Later According to Gary last night, the Mets did in fact lead the league in DP's. He may have said MLB, but I'm not positive.

Frayed Knot Apr 19 2007 12:34 PM

I was wondering if they took the high number of GiDPs into account anywhere there. The part about [u:6586ffa6c6]86% of all men to reach base being left there - vs league avg = 73%[/u:6586ffa6c6] implies that they're looking at LOB figures as a pct of the total. But it could be that they looked at runners put on vs how many scored and simply treated the rest as "left there" even though some might have been erased. If so, then GiDPs would def contribute to the MLB best rate. If not, then the GiDPs would make the runners-on vs runs scored ratio even more impressive. In any case, it would be nice to cut down on the walks rather than try and get away with this kind of stuff all season.

Centerfield Apr 19 2007 12:47 PM

Am I the only one that reads these stats to mean that we should expect more runs to score because we have been lucky so far?

Frayed Knot Apr 19 2007 01:06 PM

No, I assume that luck (or good fortune & timing if you prefer) playing a part in the "outlier" status on that chart is an implied part of it all. Those low BAw/RiSP and high pop-up/fly ball rates are going to be tough to keep up. But, if that infield grounder-to-out ratio is truly a reflection of skill and not just a small sample size - and therefore stays high all year long - then we've got a good shot at staying on the high side on the Y side of the scale even if our plotted point moves somewhat back towards the norm.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 19 2007 01:19 PM

My proprietary defensive measurement stats, which I call "ED" (eyewitness defense) tells me the Mets have been considerably stronger than their opponents defensively, and in fact, their cumulative ED currently ranks 2nd in the overall BF stat (for Big Factors) this year. Big Factors Ranking: 1. Jose Reyes 2. Defense 3. Bullpen 4. Moises Alou 5. Carlos Beltran 6. Tom Glavine * seriously the infield defense is just plain better thasn the other guys and it's made a big difference. The OF is shaky in the number of plays it is capable of making, but it hasn't made a lot of mistakes either, which has also been important.

Nymr83 Apr 19 2007 03:32 PM

I don't think noodle-arm Green gets much credit for it, but I'd think his range is at least average, outfielders seem to get judged on 2 things though: how cannon-like their arm is and how many times they dive and make a catch (whether the dive was really necessary or not- hi edmonds!)

Edgy DC Apr 19 2007 03:51 PM

Don't forget the wall climbs. Yeah, though, I agree with that. Moises and Green have been rangier than I expected.