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Let's see your Willie!
iramets Apr 27 2007 06:12 AM |
To get away from what's perceived by some as my irrational all-purpose hatred for Willie Randolph, I'd like to suggest that we try to fill out one of Bill James' useful "[Manager X] in a Box" forms, wherein certain more-or-less objective questions about a particular manager's preferences and techniques are noted. If nothing else, we should be able to see where we disagree and where we agree.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 06:57 AM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Apr 27 2007 02:28 PM |
Let's start by filling out the easy, purely factual stuff
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Edgy DC Apr 27 2007 07:03 AM |
Managers for Whom He Played: Danny Murtaugh, Billy Martin, Dick Howser, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin, Dick Howser, Gene Michael, Bob Lemon, Gene Michael, Clyde King, Billy Martin, Yogi Berra, Billy Martin, Lou Piniella, Billy Marrtin, Lou Pinella, Tommy Lasorda, Tony LaRussa, Tom Trebelhorn, Jeff Torborg
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Edgy DC Apr 27 2007 07:07 AM |
His 11-year coaching career (ten?) was much more stable, working under only Buck Showalter and Joe Torre.
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Kid Carsey Apr 27 2007 07:15 AM |
He's a liar, defensive, deceptive, and inarticulate.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 07:18 AM |
You're boring me, KC. I suspect you're boring other people as well.
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Kid Carsey Apr 27 2007 07:22 AM |
Frankly, I don't care if I'm boring you ... I'm adding my two cents. Have you
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iramets Apr 27 2007 07:23 AM |
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Certainly that belongs under "Others he was influenced by." Of course, influences are positive and negative. I think the largest managerial influence was Billy Martin, also a light-hitting leadoff-batting second baseman for the Yankees most of his career, who probably saw young WIllie in his image and tried to mold him more than he did others, but whether Willie viewed Billy as a role model or a demonic influence to be avoided at all costs remains to be discussed. At a first stab, I'd say he's much more a negative role model than a positive one for Willie, who seems to have modelled many of his public traits on avoiding Billy's problems, notably arguing with his players in the media.
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Johnny Dickshot Apr 27 2007 07:24 AM |
WHAT HE BROUGHT TO A BALL CLUB
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iramets Apr 27 2007 07:31 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 27 2007 07:49 AM |
Are we going to be relying on our memories and impressions exclusively here, or is there any kind of database on Willie we can use? I'm wondering about any interviews he's given in which he spoke about how influenced by Billy Martin he was as a player and manager. I can't remember offhand much about Willie, though I've probably read a dozen books about the Yankees when he was a player--Reggie's several autobios, Catfish's, some books on Steinbrenner, even the THE WORST TEAM MONEY COULD BUY...Not much on him that I can recall, but maybe someone can?
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Edgy DC Apr 27 2007 07:33 AM |
I think Willie takes a lot of Billy Martin, and leaves behind what he found to be distasteful. He certainly cited him as an influence when he took the job, though that may have been in part to distance himself from the "Torre Protégé" tag.
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duan Apr 27 2007 07:38 AM |
I think he's been pretty good with the pitching staff as a whole and the bullpen in particular, but how much of that goes down as credit to Peterson I don't know.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 07:55 AM |
The idea, Duan, I think, is that Willie gets the credit or the blame for the pitching staff, though various other factors (like Peterson, or Omar) can't be discounted.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 08:07 AM |
Was he an emotional manager or a decision maker?
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iramets Apr 27 2007 08:12 AM |
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Under HANDLING THE PITCHING STAFF, the specific questions are: Did he like power pitchers or people who put the ball into play? Did he stay with his starters or go to the bullpen quickly? Did he use a four-man rotation? (This one is badly out of date, and for or purposes needs to be changed, maybe to "How strictly did he stick to a regular rotation?") How long would he stay with a pitcher who was struggling? Was there anything unique about his handling of pitchers?
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2007 08:49 AM |
2006 Managing Statistics
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Edgy DC Apr 27 2007 08:53 AM |
We have the means for a very non-biased standard by which to judge managers. I have a sabbatical coming up soon.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 09:03 AM |
That's a lot of data for us to mine. Thanks, Yancy. If it's not too much trouble, could you (or anyone) post the same stats for 2005? The biggest problem in evaluating Willie's tendencies is the small amount of available hard data, so every bit helps.
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Johnny Dickshot Apr 27 2007 09:07 AM |
More sac bunts than the competition, and favorite inning = 2? Ouch.
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metirish Apr 27 2007 09:17 AM |
Those stats that Yancy posted are great,but they don't measure Willie's "gut feel" moves and tendencies.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2007 09:31 AM |
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That second inning thing caught my eye too. In the second inning you can never be sure whether you'll need one run to win the game or if you'll need 12 runs. Sacrificing that early doesn't seem like a great idea. I'd like to see a breakdown of Willie's second-inning bunts, though. Because if they occurred with the pitcher batting and runners on base then in that case I can excuse the sacrifice. The Mets did score a lot of first-inning runs, so they probably frequently had the number 9 slot come up in the second inning. I would think that pitchers would do most of their sacrificing early in the game. If it's late in the game, and you need that run, you'll probably use a pinch-hitter.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 09:32 AM |
What are the final two categories under Relievers? ist batter APP? 3 pit. <2 run?
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2007 09:32 AM |
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Maybe I'll be able to do that a little later this afternoon.
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Johnny Dickshot Apr 27 2007 09:34 AM |
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I'd guess that too.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2007 09:41 AM |
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This is how The Sporting News explains them:
Interestingly, there are several managers who did the Tony La Russa special more often than La Russa himself did.
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Johnny Dickshot Apr 27 2007 09:51 AM |
OK, I looked through all games of April and May last year and found 7 instances of 2nd-inning sac bunts, all of them by pitchers.
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Edgy DC Apr 27 2007 09:58 AM |
Oh, "Be My Guest."
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Johnny Dickshot Apr 27 2007 10:00 AM |
I figured having clicked on 60 boxscores I'd already wasted enough time.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 11:35 AM |
The first thing to do with the stats chart, it seems to me, is to look for Willie as an outlier (as opposed to a just-regular liar). So some categories in which he presents extreme tendencies are:
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iramets Apr 27 2007 11:53 AM |
If you wanna see a similar exercise with Bobby Cox go [url=http://detectovision.com/?p=670] here[/url] Some ambitious person can also save me typing, and us time, by cutting and pasting the whole list of questions.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2007 12:49 PM |
2005 Managing Statistics
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iramets Apr 27 2007 02:22 PM |
Thanks, Yancy.
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metirish Apr 27 2007 02:24 PM |
Not being a smart arse here but what will this tell us about Willie,all this information .
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iramets Apr 27 2007 02:34 PM |
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Not sure, but I was getting awful tired of calling him names. First you compile the data, then you see if it says anything. Found another trait in both seasons: mid-inning pitching changes, near the bottom of NL both years. Doesn't like to switch pitchers in mid-inning.
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2007 02:42 PM |
I noticed that too, about the mid-inning pitcher changes. (Not from the charts, but from watching the games.)
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Rotblatt Apr 27 2007 02:44 PM |
Interesting stuff! One thing some of the statistically inclined peeps do is try to see if there's a consistent bias above or below pythogorean projections--some of them point to that as evidence of managerial competence/incompetence.
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iramets Apr 27 2007 02:50 PM |
As to the sac bunt, Willie ordered 17 more in 2006 than in 2005, with a better lineup. He's had good success % both years with the sac bunt
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Johnny Dickshot Apr 27 2007 03:38 PM |
Could that be explained by better OBP?
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Gwreck Apr 27 2007 04:47 PM |
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What's the supporting data for the first assertion? How do you measure if someone "seems" to implore his players to play hard or not?
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iramets Apr 27 2007 04:55 PM |
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Mebbe. Let's think this through. If you've got fewer runners on base, sure you've got fewer opportunities to bunt a man over. But doesn't that also mean that each baserunner represents a rare chance for a run, discouraging you from trusting that the next three or four guys will string together hits and make bunting a waste of an at-bat? if you're playing for one run, doesn't that mean more or less that you'll be bunting any chance you get? If you've got a strong hitting lineup, top to bottom, doesn't that dictate you're LESS in need of bunts because the next batter is capable of getting a hit or a HR? Isn't it considered counter-intuitive to bunt with a strong offensive team? Isnt a strong offense largely one with a good OBP?
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iramets Apr 27 2007 05:00 PM |
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Maybe that's a bad question, because I don't know how you'd know for sure. Guys like Lasorda and Piniella and Billy Martin gave a strong impression that they injected all sorts of emotion in their clubhouse, but maybe it was a front and they were calm, softspoken gentlemen behind closed doors, and Gil Hodges and Joe Torre might turn into fist-pumping, screaming maniacs once the reporters cleared out of the room. Do you want to make the case that Willie's all intense and emotional and high-drama?
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Willets Point Apr 27 2007 05:18 PM |
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There are no bad questions, just misunderstood questions.
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Kid Carsey Apr 27 2007 05:23 PM |
ira: >>>Was he an emotional manager or a decision maker?<<<
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iramets Apr 27 2007 06:23 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Apr 28 2007 07:59 AM |
Okay, here's the whole Jamesian schmear (I'll c-n-p what I've already compiled as we go along). If you'd care to answer a question so far untouched, I'll c-n-p your answer into this chart: If I've said something with which you disagree, I'll try to hammer out some common ground. The important thing isn’t what I think of Willie, but what the truth is about Willie, as best as we can tell. Some things I’m sure I’m wrong about, but I will tolerate correction surprisingly well.
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Kid Carsey Apr 27 2007 06:33 PM |
I guess I don't get why being emotional and decisive are choices and can't
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Gwreck Apr 27 2007 09:30 PM |
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No. Do you want to answer my "bad" question? You put the weasel words into your statement. "Doesn't seem to implore his players to play hard." How do you know that? Emotional and high drama might be one way to "implore" your players to play hard, but I doubt it's the only one. I actually believe that Willie indeed DOES implore his players to play hard for him. I'm not sure how I can prove it, other perhaps third-hand sources. How do you know what you asserted? P.S. If all you want to say is that he doesn't act like Lou Pinella or Larry Bowa in the dugout, no problem -- the text just needs an edit or two.
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iramets Apr 28 2007 04:24 AM |
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I didn't mean YOU had asked a bad question, I meant I had (or Bill James had). I'd just as soon ditch all of the subjective questions under WHAT HE BROUGHT TO A BALL CLUB (Was He an Intense Manager or More of an Easy-to-Get-Along-With Type? Was he an emotional manager or a decision maker? Was He More of an Optimist or More of a Problem Solver?) because we can't really know these answers, just kinda sense them. Certainly we can't answer them in the same way we can answer "Does he like to sacrifice bunt?" I'm particularly reluctant to answer subjective-type questions because I'd like this thread to be as objective as possible. No "How does he treat the media?", no "Does he seem intelligent?", No "What do you think of his moral character?" for me, thank you, as I've indulged way too much in those areas in which I have only my subjective impressions, and to which this thread is meant to be a corrective. Frankly, if you want to throw them out, that's fine with me, and if you want to supply your own response, I'll put that in there. As it is, I'm using JD's response ("As African American managers go, closer to Frank Robinson than to Dusty Baker: Prefers tough love to tender encouragement.") in place of my own on the "intense or easy?" question, even though I'm not sure where he gets that impression from. Also, and this is a response to KC's point as well, I think several of these questions are designed to avoid an answer of "Well, both" where possible (it's not always possible, and James gives a few "Well, both" answers himself) because EVERY question gets a "Well, both" answer if you search hard enough. Even "Does Willie like to sacrifice bunt?" gets a "Yes and No" answer, if you want to be technical. He might lead the league in sac bunts every year, but does he LIKE it? No, he'd probably prefer to have Babe Ruth batting in slots 1-8. Does he sac-bunt as much as the manager of 1906 Chicago White Sox did? No, but probably the least bunting-team of 1906 bunted more than the -most-bunting team of 2006. So we ought to try to give a definitive answer (and explain the thinking behind the answer).
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iramets Apr 28 2007 08:29 AM |
The question about how deep does he take his starter into games seems to be one that's answered easily with available stats, but I can't find any IP/start stuff anywhere. Where should I look?
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Benjamin Grimm Apr 28 2007 09:16 AM |
Here's some really raw data, but it can be pasted into a spreadsheet if you like.
Opposing Pitchers
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iramets Apr 28 2007 12:51 PM |
I got carpal tunnel, scrolling.
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iramets Apr 28 2007 01:09 PM |
I'm trying to figure out how you quantify "prefers finesse pitchers to power pitchers." The Mets, according to my prejudices, have a classic finesse staff, giving most of their innings to the likes of Glavine, Trax, and Pedro, old guys who know what they're doing and don't overpower you with 95+ MPH stuff.
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Edgy DC Apr 28 2007 02:51 PM |
Finesse pitchers can strike peoples out too.
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iramets Apr 28 2007 04:00 PM |
Yes, of course. But not so many as power pitchers. Or so I thought.
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iramets Apr 29 2007 04:03 AM |
A quick and dirty scan of the 2006 data doesn't turn up a pronounced tendancy, by Yancy's suggested method, of confirming that Willlie likes to leave his starter in to finish innings: We had starters coming out of atfter an even inning (X.0, Y.0. etc.)128 times, the oppos had it 127 times.
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iramets May 17 2007 05:13 AM |
Having said my screed about Willie's moral fiber (for now) and having had it so well received, I thought I'd return to the more objective evaluation.
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iramets May 17 2007 05:45 AM |
So far this season--slightly above league average in pitchers' k and pitchers' BBs.
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iramets May 17 2007 07:31 AM |
I've been thinking about the Billy Martin influence, since Martin is a role model for piss-poor relations with the press--lying to them, denying his lies, changing his story, accusing them of inventing quotes, taking swings at them, etc. . (Martin the dead manager, not Martin the poster, though they share the same level of disrespect for the media.) Willie grew up in a paranoiac locker-room, with Martin uniting his team with an us-against-reporters, us-against-the-umps mentality. Willie's contemptuous treatment of the press seems aligned with Martin, though his reluctance to get thrown out of games certainly differs from the Martin model. But this is subjective stuff, and I'm in the minority here, so maybe I should leave this as my own thoughts on Martin's influence on Willie's thinking and let others on The CPF figure out who was an influence on his style of managing.
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