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April Matters

Nymr83 May 01 2007 01:37 PM

somewhat related to the foolish argument that its ok for willie to do dumb things "because its only april" but more relevant to the craptastic yankees. all quotes from Stark's article. [url]http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2855072[/url] ]We looked at every full season since 1982. Here's what we found: • Of the 144 teams that made it to the postseason in that span, only eight (or 5.6 percent) came out of April more than three games under .500. Clubs that need to worry most about that history lesson: the Yankees (9-14), Astros (10-14), Cardinals (10-14), Cubs (10-14) and Rangers (10-15). ]Just six of those 144 playoff teams (or 4.2 percent) found themselves more than 4½ games out of a playoff spot after April. Those same five clubs ought to get nervous about that trend; the Yankees are 6½ games out ]And you wouldn't think the standings would mean much this time of year. But more than half of the 120 teams that found themselves in first place after April (66 of 120) wound up finishing first. And 98 of the 120 first-place teams (or 81.7 percent) either led their division or were within 2½ games of the lead at the end of April. ]• So when was the last time the Yankees were this far behind Boston after April? How about 1912, when they started out 2-10 (while the Red Sox went 9-4). And how did that season turn out? The Red Sox won 105 games and won the World Series. The Yankees lost 102 -- and finished 55 games out of first. now theres a promising piece of history, the yankees havent been this bad relative to Boston in april for 95 years. ]Just remember this: Over the last five years, the AL wild-card winner has averaged 96 wins. For the Yankees to reach that number, they'd have to go 87-52 the rest of the way. these arent the 1998 or even the 2003 Yankees. While it is certainly possible or even likely that their record doesn't reflect their talent they are simply not that dominant team that can roll out 8-straight, 10 of 11, etc runs that get you to 87-52 the rest of the way.

Edgy DC May 01 2007 01:43 PM

Someday, we'll speak of the Curse of Bernie.

Centerfield May 01 2007 01:45 PM

When was it that the MFY's were 11-19? Was that '05? Even after reading all that, I'd still guess the MFY's will be playing in October.

metirish May 01 2007 01:54 PM

Thanks for the info 83,I firmly believe that Torre will be fired soon,for the next two weeks they play Texas and Seattle,if the losing keeps up against those teams he's fucked.

Johnny Dickshot May 01 2007 01:56 PM

I don't see why the MFYs couldn't win 10 in a row. Their lineup is capable of 8 runs a night. Not suggesting its easy or likely, but getting a 10-game stretch of OK pitching and steady D could it for them. Now I will be rooting very very hard against that.

Willets Point May 01 2007 01:56 PM

Centerfield wrote: When was it that the MFY's were 11-19? Was that '05? Even after reading all that, I'd still guess the MFY's will be playing in October. ...and hoisting the World Series trophy, don't forget that part.

metirish May 01 2007 01:59 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote: I don't see why the MFYs couldn't win 10 in a row. Their lineup is capable of 8 runs a night. . That's true,I just don't think they have the starting pitching right now,and the pen is shot.

Nymr83 May 01 2007 02:20 PM

That was 2 years ago, and they were one of the 4.2% of playoff teams that were that far back, but they were behind BALTIMORE not BOSTON at the time. they did NOT win the WS that year, whoever said that

Rotblatt May 01 2007 02:43 PM

As much as I'd like to believe it, I think their slow start is just a fluke, and they'll wind up winning ~95 games. That lineup is devestating, and they'll beg, borrow or steal their way to a stable rotation. Igawa and Hughes won't be consistent while they're filling in, but Mussina & Pavano should be fine, when healthy. Their bullpen's a bit iffy, but Bruney, Myers & Henn have been solid and Rivera will get himself sorted out. If any team can come back from a crappy April, it's that one.

Edgy DC May 01 2007 02:50 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on May 01 2007 02:58 PM

Not a lot of recent history suggesting that Carl Pavano should be fine or healthy.

soupcan May 01 2007 02:53 PM Re: April Matters

Nymr83 wrote: the foolish argument that its ok for willie to do dumb things "because its only april".... Let's be fair - the argument was not 'it's okay to do dumb things because it's only April' The argument was 'it's okay to experiment with your team early in the season rather than later.'

Edgy DC May 01 2007 02:59 PM

Agreed.

Rotblatt May 01 2007 03:14 PM

Edgy DC wrote: Not a lot of recent history suggesting that Carl Pavano should be fine or healthy. Totally agree on the healthy part, but as to fine, he's been fairly productive when he is healthy. I'd certainly expect him to be better than replacement level, at least . . .

metirish May 01 2007 03:32 PM

Players like Pavano might one day define the Cashman era.