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feAAst or fAAmine

Frayed Knot Jun 08 2007 07:41 AM

Met fans seem to have found their new whipping boy in Aaron Heliman. Right now, he's the guy taking the brunt of the anger on talk shows and elsewhere - even to the point where his facial expressions and psyche are being dissected a la Johnny Franco - with many ready to cut ties with him immediately if not sooner. But something's not adding up here. Dude's got a 1.02 WHiP and a .210 BAA -- numbers which don't seem to add up to either a 4.28 ERA or being scored upon in 1/3 of his (usually short) outings. HRs are one of the explanations; 4 this year vs all of 5 all last season The other is his tendancy this season to either be perfect ... or perfectly awful. 27 appearances this year: Been perfect in 14 of them (some as short as 1 out) But in the other 13, he's given up runs (16 in total, 13 earned) in 9 of them. IOW, virtually everytime he puts someone on base that guy (and often several of his friends) come around to score. He's been bunching his hits & walks to the point where only twice has he had an appearance where he's given up just one baserunner. So that's 14 times = no baserunners; Twice = 1 baserunner; 11 times = multiple runners And, not surpisingly, those multiple runners often lead to multiple runs. He's actually given up 2 or more runs more often than just 1 and more than half his total runners have eventually scored. I'm not quite sure where I'm going with all this or how to "fix" it. One view might be to look at it and figure that he's been somewhat unlucky, that a more random distribution of his hits & walks would yield better results even if only by accident. Another fits into the "pysche" theories; the ones about him not performing well because he's unhappy in his role (the same role he was in while the best reliever in baseball over the 2nd half last year) and needs a change in scenery.

Edgy DC Jun 08 2007 07:46 AM

I think he's been somewhat unlucky, but maybe not pitching to situations enough. Or maybe over-pitching to them. I don't have a good grasp either. What I do know is the scapegoating thing sucks. And I think every caller ringing in to tear him up should be crossed-checked against the databse of callers who called in accusing the Mets of hating him because they don't let him start. The penchant of fans to find whipping boys is the downside of contending.

metirish Jun 08 2007 07:51 AM

I wonder if his elbow is the problem here,wasn't he told or he said that the elbow discomfort is something he would be dealing with all season.

Frayed Knot Jun 08 2007 08:02 AM

His velocity doesn't seem to be down. Nor would an injury explain why he's had as many good outings as bad, or why the non-perfect ones all seem to snowball until they become mini-disasters.

Centerfield Jun 08 2007 08:37 AM

The explanation is obvious enough. In non-big spots, Heilman is great and mows down hitters. In big spots, he completely melts down and can't stop the bleeding.

TheOldMole Jun 08 2007 08:39 AM

Well, when he blows them down, they become non-big spots.

Nymr83 Jun 08 2007 11:06 AM

]everytime (s)he puts someone on base that guy (and often several of his friends) come around to score sounds like a girl i know...

Frayed Knot Jun 09 2007 09:49 PM

Good AAron showed up today: 2 IP, 2 K, 1 baserunner (seeing-eye single)