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Prospect Progress Report

Frayed Knot Jul 16 2007 08:17 AM

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6448] reviews his pre-season Top-100 Prospect List[/url] and talks about whether the stock in those players are rising or falling based on the first half of 2007. * [pre-season ranking]18. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets, 18 Eligible [as a prospect] Next Year? Yes Stock Movement Since Ranking: Down Comment: Yes, a .271 batting average at Double-A is very impressive for a 18-year-old, but he’s showing no secondary skills, and more scouts are speaking up about his inability to play center field. * 26. Philip Humber, RHP, Mets, 24 Eligible Next Year? Should be Stock Movement Since Ranking: Down Very similar to [Rice U. teammate Jeff] Niemann, but a little worse in performance (4.48 ERA). I know, Rice pitchers not living up to expectations--shocking, huh? * 30. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets, 23 Eligible Next Year? No Stock Movement Since Ranking: Down Man, he has one heckuva fastball. Yup, sure is a good fastball. Unfortunately, that’s really all you can say, because the lack of a breaking ball is just killing him in the big leagues. * 34. Carlos Gomez, OF, Mets, 21 Eligible Next Year? Probably, as a broken hand could cost him the remainder of the season Stock Movement Since Ranking: Unchanged A never-ending stream of injuries forced the Mets to rush Gomez to the big leagues, where we got to see tons of promise, and tons of work that still needs to be done. There’s still star potential here, and there were plenty of nights where he was the most exciting player on the field.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 16 2007 09:07 AM

Down. Down. Down. Unchanged. Not the best of news, huh? Gomez's ranking may not have changed, but my first impression of him was a good one. I know he still has some developing to do, but the fact that he's had a bit of success in the big leagues is certainly a positive.

Edgy DC Jul 16 2007 09:20 AM

There probably would be some good news among some of our second-tier prospects --- Mulvey and Parnell. But yeah, lack of progress at the top is frustrating. Fernando Martinez not being a centerfielder won't kill us, but it huts the old TV.

MFS62 Jul 16 2007 09:35 AM

A few weeks ago I read on a minor league board that the report on Martinez' fielding stems from a single scouting report in one of the prospect mags. It seems that the report was filed the day after Martinez had fouled a ball off his foot and in the following game he had difficulty getting a jump on balls and running. The injury also prevented him from planting his feet to make a strong throw. Since that time, some minor league "experts" who have not seen Martinez still refer to that one published report. Subsequent reports say his fielding in center is more than adequate for the position. EDIT: But if a move to first base will ease his path to the majors, I have no heartburn with that. Later

Rockin' Doc Jul 16 2007 09:40 AM

Pefrey and Humber are the two that most concern me. Injuries have slowed Humber's progress, but he needs to start making steady improvement if he is to be of any value to the Mets in the reasonable future. His strike outs per inning looks good and his walks/K is promising. However, he has allowed a .269 BAA while giving up 15 home runs in in 96 innings. This leads me to think that he has pretty good stuff and decent command, but is giving up too many hard hit balls. The BABIP against him must be pretty high. Pelfrey has had minimal success in his opportunites at the major league level. If he can't develop a passable breaking ball, then teach him to throw a change up. If he is unable to develop a good secondary pitch, then he will never develop into a good major league starter no matter haw good his fastball is. If he is unable to develop another pitch to go with his fastball in the future, then it may be wise to groom him as a reliever. I think Carlos Gomez has raw talent and is still young enough that I am hopeful he will mature as a hitter and ultimately become a major contributor to the Mets in the future.

smg58 Jul 16 2007 09:40 AM

="Edgy DC"]There probably would be some good news among some of our second-tier prospects --- Mulvey and Parnell. But yeah, lack of progress at the top is frustrating. Especially since our system is thin. Even Mulvey hasn't been spectacular, and he's the only one of the top prospects who from a statistical standpoint is having a good year. Martinez and Carp have nine homers between them at Binghamton, which is less than encouraging. I wouldn't expect to see either of them in the first starting lineup at CitiField. Our best hitter in NO is Andy Tracy, who was born in 1973. Does anybody know anything about Chip Ambres? He appears to be having a decent year at AAA. The Zephyrs also have an infielder named Jake Gautreau who makes excellent contact and has a good BA and SLG, but only has 2 walks in 109 AB. Those two were both born in 1979, though.

Edgy DC Jul 16 2007 09:42 AM

On the plus side, hasn't Milledge looked like a big leaguer the past few days? He's shown as much as Gomez showed in his whole stint.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 16 2007 09:45 AM

Yes, Milledge is rising to the occasion, and that's a good thing. I'd LOVE to see him play well enough the rest of the way so that he becomes part of the plan for 2008, allowing the Mets to shed either Green or Alou.

smg58 Jul 16 2007 09:45 AM

Pelfrey's biggest issue up here has been control. I get the sense that he's overthinking and trying to be too careful, and he winds up falling behind in the count far too often. I think things will fall into place for him if (and hopefully when) he relaxes enough to consistently throw strikes.

MFS62 Jul 16 2007 09:45 AM

Edgy DC wrote: On the plus side, hasn't Milledge looked like a big leaguer the past few days? He's shown as much as Gomez showed in his whole stint. You betcha'! The most encouraging thing to me is that he is hitting the ball to all fields. To me, that is a sign of maturity as a hitter. Later

smg58 Jul 16 2007 09:48 AM

The Mets have already declined Green's option, and Alou has to hit awfully well when he comes back for the Mets to even consider picking up his option at this point. I can see them bringing in a lefty bat for depth and insurance, but Milledge and Gomez might both get the chance to play regularly next year.

Johnny Dickshot Jul 16 2007 10:02 AM

I'm with smg, i.e. -- Pelfrey just needs to get his stuff altogether. He has a really good fastball, just doesn't seem to know what to do with it yet. I think he's going to be fine... eventually. Right now his games are too messy. I also think Cargo showed plenty of ability here. What's intriguing about him is he's a big guy -- if he starts incorporating strength into his hitting, look oiut, cuz we aleady know he's a good outfielder and very fast. Humber? I dunno. Bobby Parnell is rising to the AA challenge -- still walks a few too many, but is getting his K's back up to earlier levels and his ERA is down to 3.40 after 7 starts (he's 1-2). Milledge to me looks like the same guy who rocked hits all over the place in 06 Spring training. He looks like he can be one of those guys who's very dangerous when hot.

attgig Jul 16 2007 10:02 AM

and yeah, pelfrey and humber really need to step it up the rest of the season, or else we'll have to start looking at free agency for next year's #5. I didn't get El Duque's 2 year deal, but with both of those guys not producing like they were supposed to ... yeah. maybe that WAS the smart move.

Edgy DC Jul 16 2007 10:02 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 16 2007 11:17 AM

Second or third-tier prospects who've moved forward, to varying degrees: Mulvey (since June 10, he's thrown 40.2 innings, with a 2.22 ERA) Parnell Harper Ambres Pellot Stewart Muniz McNab Harper can be added to Carp among the disappointments. He's doing good enough, but at an age where you'd hope he'd do better. Marttinez is playing so ahead of his age, I'm not going to put much into his lack of power. I'll also list Coronado there among the disapoitments. Tracy is on the list of minor league infield veterans who are hitting the heck out the ball but won't be taken seriously unless an emergency requires the team to, along with Matt Kiger and Jake Gautreau.

Frayed Knot Jul 16 2007 01:08 PM

MFS62 wrote: A few weeks ago I read on a minor league board that the report on Martinez' fielding stems from a single scouting report in one of the prospect mags. I would think that Goldstein at BP (he's been doing this stuff for years) and also Baseball America (they quoted a scout a few weeks back trashing FM) would do a little more legwork than just quoting recycled internet material that may have its genesis in one report. But hey, this isn't a death sentence either. He's EIGHTEEN YEARS OLD and holding his own in AA. If he were an American he would have just been drafted 5 weeks ago and probably be in the Gulf Coast League getting his feet wet right now. What these report DO show is that fans need to dial back their expectations when discussing minor league teenagers, no matter how promising. If I had to listen to one more projection with him in next year's lineup (or even '09) or how Milledge was expendable on account of having him in the wings and I was going to go postal. ]... But if a move to first base will ease his path to the majors, I have no heartburn with that I hope we're still a long way away from that. 6-foot tall, RH-hitting 1st baseman aren't exactly valuable produce and unless he develops a helluva bat that move almost automatically makes him a marginal prospect at best.