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I don't buy it

Edgy DC Jul 31 2007 08:05 AM

I've been reading a lot about Tom Glavine possibly being the last 300-game winner. I'm opting out of that thinking.

Johnny Dickshot Jul 31 2007 08:06 AM

I doubt he'll get to 300 either. fake edit: Oh, you mean after him...

metirish Jul 31 2007 08:09 AM

I think he'll be the last for quite a few years..... the Daily Snooze has an article on that today.... ] NEXT TO 300? Will anyone win 300 games again after Tom Glavine notches the milestone or has the game changed too much? Here's a look at some potential candidates, how old they are and how far they have to go. Randy Johnson, 43 (284 wins): The next closest, but he's already out this season with another back surgery. "If he can keep it together, he can do it, but he has such a lingering back problem," Mel Stottlemyre says. Pedro Martinez, 35 (206): He's coming off surgery, so nothing is certain. "But you never know, with Pedro's guile," Fox analyst Tim McCarver says. Andy Pettitte, 35 (192): No chance. He considered retirement after last season and "he's going to want to be with his family," Stottlemyre says. Johan Santana, 28 (89): Lost some years to relief pitching, but "there's no doubt he could do it, with his changeup," Pettitte says. Roy Oswalt, 29 (108): Pettitte named him as his top candidate, but also said he was unlikely to play long enough. "How long can a frame as small as Oswalt (6-0, 185 pounds) throw power?" adds McCarver. Curt Schilling, 40 (213): Currently on the disabled list and would have to pitch until his mid-40s. Does anyone not named Roger Clemens want to do that? Barry Zito, 29 (109): He's experienced an alarming dip in velocity this season, down to mid-80s. "That means you live on only one side of the plate, outside," McCarver says. "That's tough." Mike Mussina, 38 (244): Doubts he'll pitch long enough and has endured ineffective stretches this season. Tim Hudson, 31 (130): "A big mountain to climb," McCarver says. C.C. Sabathia, 26 (94): A great talent, but will he stay healthy? Justin Verlander, 24 (28): "You look at him and say, ‘What a great young pitcher,' but it's so hard to predict," McCarver says. "In 1976, we all said Mark Fidrych was on a road paved with gold. He was as nasty as anybody but got hurt and it lasted one year." Related Articles

HahnSolo Jul 31 2007 08:17 AM

Maybe no one else active will win 300. Doesn't mean there isn't anyone in the future who can do it.

Edgy DC Jul 31 2007 08:21 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2007 08:29 AM

]... or has the game changed too much? It can change again. ]"If he can keep it together, he can do it, but he has such a lingering back problem," Mel Stottlemyre says. So, it could happen. ]"But you never know, with Pedro's guile," Fox analyst Tim McCarver says. True, much is unknown. ]Johan Santana, 28 (89): Lost some years to relief pitching, but "there's no doubt he could do it, with his changeup," Pettitte says. Wow, now we're moving toward certainty. ]"How long can a frame as small as Oswalt (6-0, 185 pounds) throw power?" adds McCarver. How many pitchers reach 300 by adapting to fading power? ] Currently on the disabled list and would have to pitch until his mid-40s. Does anyone not named Roger Clemens want to do that? If he can, maybe for the same reason he's pitching now. ]A great talent, but will he stay healthy? Maybe? ]"You look at him and say, ‘What a great young pitcher,' but it's so hard to predict," McCarver says. Exactly. It's hard to predict. This isn't unlike the Beatles question. Sure, betting on any one particular pitcher is a loser's bet. But I think betting the entire field is safe enough.

metirish Jul 31 2007 08:23 AM

OK,I'm saying for future reference that Santana will win 300 games.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 31 2007 08:24 AM

Yeah, I'm sure it will happen again. It may take a long time, but one article I read recently pointed out that there have been several 15-year (or more) gaps in the past between 300th victories. I remember when Johnny Bench and Carl Yastrzemski went into the Hall of Fame together. Some said it will probably be the last time two guys go in who spent their entire career with the same team. And now we have Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken. And again I heard somebody say that "probably the last time" thing.

Edgy DC Jul 31 2007 08:29 AM

Derek Jeter is going to another team?

Benjamin Grimm Jul 31 2007 08:32 AM

"They" probably don't think he'll be paired with another one-team guy.

RealityChuck Jul 31 2007 08:42 AM

It's seems very unlikely anyone will come close again. Too many factors work against it, just like it's unlikely there will be another 30-game winner. It requires you win 15 games a year for 20 years, and with the shorter starts and five-man rotations, that's pretty hard to do. The DH used to be a positive factor (since you didn't have to pinch hit for your starter in a close game), but that's become less important. With pitchers coming out of the ballgame after 100 pitches, they are slightly less likely to be the pitcher of record when they leave. If that happens once or twice a season, it can make a big difference over the course of a career. In addition, young pitchers tend to be brought along more slowly. Look at Johan Santana. He'a 28 and needs 211 wins. If he pitches until he's 40, that's over 17 wins a year. In the last five years, he's won less than 17 twice (I assume he'll reach 17 this year). In 2005, he had a very good season statistically, but only won 16. And if he's injured at all and misses part of a season, he's going to find it hard to make the 17. Obviously, it's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely any pitcher will be able to get the innings needed to get to 300.

metsguyinmichigan Jul 31 2007 08:45 AM

Edgy DC wrote: Derek Jeter is going to another team? He's not going to the Hall of Fame! Well, I guess we can't say that for sure. It's only three hours away and he can buy a ticket to see the Tom Seaver plaque like everybody else.

Edgy DC Jul 31 2007 08:51 AM

metsguyinmichigan wrote: ="Edgy DC"]Derek Jeter is going to another team? He's not going to the Hall of Fame! Well, I guess we can't say that for sure. It's only three hours away and he can buy a ticket to see the Tom Seaver plaque like everybody else. Please, they've already broken ground on a new wing. I'm feeling crazy. I'm willing to lay down a grand for the charity of RealityChuck's choice (against mine), saying that there'll be another 300-game winnner in the next 18 years. (We can adjust the money to meet today's value of a thousand dollars.) I'll also bet Michigan J. Frog a grand that Jeter's going to WinnieCooperstown, though I doubt he'll put money down on what is clearly wishful thinking.

metirish Jul 31 2007 08:53 AM

RealityChuck wrote: Look at Johan Santana. He'a 28 and needs 211 wins. If he pitches until he's 40, that's over 17 wins a year. In the last five years, he's won less than 17 twice (I assume he'll reach 17 this year). In 2005, he had a very good season statistically, but only won 16. And if he's injured at all and misses part of a season, he's going to find it hard to make the 17. Obviously, it's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely any pitcher will be able to get the innings needed to get to 300. What the hell was I thinking.......not impossible but a tough chore.

Rockin' Doc Jul 31 2007 09:16 AM

With changes that the game has undergone in the last 25-30 years, the 300 wins plateau is now a much harder to obtain than the once rather exclusive 500 home run club. There will almost certainly be others to reach 300 wins in the future, but I expect their numbers will be few and far between.

Edgy DC Jul 31 2007 09:17 AM

I got two grand on the table here.

metirish Jul 31 2007 09:18 AM

It's a rare thing anyway,Glavine will be #23.

metsguyinmichigan Jul 31 2007 09:24 AM

Edgy DC wrote: ="metsguyinmichigan"] Edgy DC wrote: Derek Jeter is going to another team? He's not going to the Hall of Fame! Well, I guess we can't say that for sure. It's only three hours away and he can buy a ticket to see the Tom Seaver plaque like everybody else. Please, they've already broken ground on a new wing. I'll also bet Michigan J. Frog a grand that Jeter's going to WinnieCooperstown, though I doubt he'll put money down on what is clearly wishful thinking. 1) Winnie Cooper rocked! 2) I have no doubt there will be more 300-game winners. People were saying Clemens would be the last one not too long ago. 3) Oh I have no doubt that Jeter will be enshrined. You have people with actual votes like Verducci who swoon at the mention of his name. Let's write his plaque: DEREK "FREAKING" JETER NEW YORK (AL) 1996-2013, 2016 TAMPA BAY (AL) 2013-2015 Captain and shortstop of team that won four championships. His legendary intangables on the field made up for his lack of range and leadership. Beloved by sportswriters. Got uniform dirty in game in 2009. Smelled nice.

Edgy DC Jul 31 2007 09:26 AM

Down to one grand.

Willets Point Jul 31 2007 10:58 AM

="Johnny Dickshot"]I doubt he'll get to 300 either. fake edit: Oh, you mean after him... Second bullet of cool of the day. We're posting well as a forum.

G-Fafif Jul 31 2007 03:40 PM

My gut tells me 300 is the new 400 when it comes to wins, and how many 400-game winners you bump into lately? Nevertheless, three pitchers, assuming Glavine doesn't disintegrate, have done it despite pitching in an era when the norms were stacked against them. Even by the beginnings of Clemens', Maddux's and Glavine's careers, there was a reliance on middle relief and a de-emphasis on complete games never mind the granite institution of the five-man rotation. They're all great pitchers (grumble, grumble where one of those greats in particular is concerned), but they're not three one-of-a-kinds. If Clemens could do it, if Maddux could do it, if Glavine could do it, somebody is bound to do it. It will be a Herculean feat of luck, longevity and not a little skill, but it will likely be done. I have no idea by whom. I doubt we have have met this pitcher yet.

Willets Point Jul 31 2007 04:12 PM

Ollie Perez.

Nymr83 Jul 31 2007 04:23 PM

imo it is pretty pointless to talk about anyone who doesnt have 200 wins getting to 300, too much can go wrong.

SteveJRogers Jul 31 2007 04:25 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: "They" probably don't think he'll be paired with another one-team guy. And if that actually did happen, assuming Jeter sticks around long enough for say Reyes or Wright calls it a career chances are no Met fans would pay attention. It would be akin to 1994, 1995, and 1974

Nymr83 Jul 31 2007 05:00 PM

SteveJRogers wrote: ="Yancy Street Gang"]"They" probably don't think he'll be paired with another one-team guy. And if that actually did happen, assuming Jeter sticks around long enough for say Reyes or Wright calls it a career chances are no Met fans would pay attention. It would be akin to 1994, 1995, and 1974 both players are far too young, if they were to call it a career the same time as jeter that would probably be a bad sign for their chances of getting in at all. I think Jeter's best bet for going in at the same time as a guy who spent his whole career with one team might be Chipper Jones, and I don't think he is getting in. The only other good players I can think of who are near Jeter's age and have spent their careers in one spot (so far) are Lance Berkman, Andruw Jones, and Roy Oswalt. None are close to the hall at this point (imo) and none are likely to finish up where they started.

Willets Point Jul 31 2007 05:14 PM

Nymr83 wrote: imo it is pretty pointless to talk about anyone who doesnt have 200 wins getting to 300, too much can go wrong. Do not question my love and devotion to Ollie Perez.