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Pennant Race Fever

Frayed Knot Aug 27 2007 07:42 AM

5 of the 6 divisions have the first & second place teams matching up this week. If this were college football, ESPN would dub it with a catchy phrase like "Shake-Out Week" which the rest of the media would then sheepishly follow along with as if it were some kind of official title. Anyway, in addition to the Mets/Phils battle: * Sox @ Yanx - 3 games (starts Tuesday): Although the Boston lead is suddenly up to 7.5 games again (pending the outcome of Monday's NYY/DET game) after dropping from 14.5 down to 4, the Sawx have a chance to put a serious dent in the New Yorkers' WC hopes as well as salting away the division before Sept 1st even rolls around. Nice pitching matchups: Matsuzaka v Pettitte; Beckett v Clemens; Wang v Schilling * Angels @ Mariners: Only 2 games seperate them in the West despite Anaheim leading almost every day of the season. Loser of this race will most likely will ultimately fight it out against the Yanx for the WC Not sure who the Yanqui fans (and, by extension, us) should be rooting for here? Probably Angels since Mariners are 2 games up in the WC, but Seattle winning could put both teams in play to be caught. * D-Backs @ Padres Arizona up by 3 games. Loser still has WC lead. * Brewers @ Cubs (starts Tuesday) Final series of the year for these two. Cubs up by 1.5 games as the Brewers have fallen all the way to .500 and have the Cards nipping at their heels.

Johnny Dickshot Aug 27 2007 07:49 AM

I have a thing for the Rockies this year, and I'm kinda sitting here hoping they get to the playoffs instead of SD or AZ. And they can! If they TCB at San Fransisco this week, they'll be right there to start a series in Phoenix. Go Rockies!

metirish Aug 27 2007 08:00 AM

Cubs,Cards and Brewers will be great to watch,what happened to the Brewers,a lack of depth ?

Willets Point Aug 27 2007 08:10 AM

I can't believe the bleeping Cards are back in this.

TransMonk Aug 27 2007 08:24 AM

="metirish"]Cubs,Cards and Brewers will be great to watch,what happened to the Brewers,a lack of depth ? Dickshot has the Rox, I have the Brewers. Their games start about an hour after the Mets do for the most part, so I usually catch the last hour of the Brewers after the Mets are done. Milwaukee's lack of depth is showing through. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure why they weren't even mentioned in considering Castillo or Conine to help out their depth this year. Either or both would have been great for them. Their troubles consist of not being able to tack on insurance runs and blowing leads later in the ballgame. No team is immune to that, but they seem to get bitten by it a lot. They hit a bunch of home runs, but if they don't hit one out of the park, they very rarely have a big inning. The feeling in the Midwest right now is that the Cardinals are going to come on strong and steal the division from the Cubs and Brewers.

Willets Point Aug 27 2007 08:38 AM

TransMonk wrote: The feeling in the Midwest right now is that the Cardinals are going to come on strong and steal the division from the Cubs and Brewers. Bastards!

G-Fafif Aug 27 2007 02:40 PM

Circle your calendars for September 27, when the last-chance St. Louis Cardinals drag their potentially miraculous asses into Shea for a makeup game against the Mets who, quite possibly, can spell the difference between a complete comeback or a dream defused. Would be nice to have Endy out in left for that game. OR...the Mets stumble around these next few weeks, the East becomes a scary scramble and it's the Cardinals delivering a glancing blow to us. I could do without another autumnal look at the Cardinals, actually.

Frayed Knot Aug 28 2007 07:27 AM

Angels & Padres each ride their aces to a win in the first games of the West division showdowns - Lackey tossed a complete game shutout in Seattle. Angels now lead by 3 games - Peavy held the D'Backs to 1 run over 7 IPs and cuts the Arizona lead to 2

Johnny Dickshot Aug 28 2007 07:33 AM

Injuns beat the Twins and turned a 5-4-3 triple play in the seventh inning.

Vic Sage Aug 28 2007 10:49 AM

But FK, you hate the wild card!

Frayed Knot Aug 28 2007 11:11 AM

Vic Sage wrote: But FK, you hate the wild card! 1) I do? 2) Good thing I was talking about division races then.

Vic Sage Aug 28 2007 02:40 PM

1) well, if you don't, you've certainly given me the impression that you do, over the course of its entire existence in MLB. 2) except for the part where you talked about the Yanks and Seattle, you mean. The September stretch drive in the Bronx will be all about the WC.

Nymr83 Aug 28 2007 02:48 PM

i'd love to see the yankees playing meaningless (can't make the playoffs) games at yankee stadium the last homestand of the year

Willets Point Aug 28 2007 03:14 PM

Nymr83 wrote: i'd love to see the yankees playing meaningless (can't make the playoffs) games at yankee stadium the last homestand of the year Or earlier.

DocTee Aug 28 2007 03:58 PM

Cincinatti: ten games under .500, six games out of first. With 18 games remaining against the three teams ahead of them -- Cards, Brewers, and Cubs,-- they could be spoilers at least.

Willets Point Aug 28 2007 04:06 PM

I hope they spoil the Cardinals.

Frayed Knot Aug 28 2007 04:48 PM

Vic Sage wrote: well, if you don't, you've certainly given me the impression that you do, over the course of its entire existence in MLB. That certainly hasn't been my intention. And besides, even if I were against the system - either at its conception or during the time since - it's not like I'm going shun discussion of it by burying my head in the sand and pretending it doesn't exist. What I have done from time to time is taken Selig and others to task for crediting the WC system for everything short of a cleaner environment. Some of baseball's "ailments" that Selig claims have been solved by the whole expansion/realignment/WC system are ones that those changes have either caused or at least exacerbated: reduced chances for division races, uneven schedules, breaking up of old rivalries, etc.

Nymr83 Aug 28 2007 06:14 PM

]What I have done from time to time is taken Selig and others to task for crediting the WC system for everything short of a cleaner environment I've noticed Shea looking alot cleaner since they made the playoffs as a wild card team in 1999...

Kid Carsey Aug 28 2007 06:22 PM

Where? In the ladies rooms on the field level behind home plate maybe ...

Nymr83 Aug 28 2007 06:31 PM

i was just joking with him, i dont really notice any difference, maybe someone needs to teach them how that fancy power-washer works (if they even have one)

Kid Carsey Aug 28 2007 06:33 PM

No need to explain yourself, I was joking too ...

Frayed Knot Aug 30 2007 07:58 AM

Update on the showdowns: AL East: Yanx have taken the first two behind Pettitte & Clemens Still a 6-game gap AL Central: The only division without a 1-vs-2 matchup this week, but Cleveland swept 3rd place Minnesota effectively killing any thoughts they might have of getting back in. Meanwhile 2nd place Detroit loses 2 straight to KC and falls 4.5 games behind Cleveland and 3 out of the WC AL West: Angels sweep the Mariners turning the suddenly close 2 game lead into 5. M's have a pct point lead over the Yanx in the WC NL Central: Cubs & Brewers split the first two with the Brews winning last night behind the return of Ben Sheets and keeping them 1/2 game ahead of the Cards NL West: Padres sweep the D'Backs creating a tie between the two atop the division. One more head-to-head for them tonight. NL East: Not sure what happened here. I couldn't find any reliable results. * As I am now Rick Reed, I will be crossing all picket lines for the duration of the next 50 posts

Willets Point Sep 17 2007 08:17 AM

I hate the schedule. The Tigers who need to gain ground on the Yankees in the Wild Card have to face Cleveland this week, while the Yankees get the sucky Orioles (who always seem to roll over and play dead vs. the Yankees).

Benjamin Grimm Sep 18 2007 01:04 PM

I hoped to find a little bit of comfort in the Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds Report, but it hasn't been updated yet with Monday's actual results. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php How often does this get updated? It would be nice to see that the Mets are still well over 90% for the postseason.

TransMonk Sep 18 2007 01:27 PM

I thought the prospectus website was updated daily. You can go to http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1. Probably not as "smart" as prospectus because it has colors. But it still simulates the rest of the season a million times. They put the Mets at a 94.4% chance of making the playoffs. 86.9% to win the division, 7.6% to win the WC.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 18 2007 01:31 PM

I really need a few Mets wins and Phillies losses to improve my outlook. (I mean that baseball-wise. This potential collapse hasn't cost me any sleep, and I haven't had any other symptoms of depression either.)

Benjamin Grimm Sep 18 2007 02:40 PM

They've updated it. Mets are now at 89.40887 for the division, 6.03581 for the wild card, and 95.44467 for a postseason berth.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2007 09:37 AM

Things are getting progressively worse. (No surprise.) Average wins by position in NL East: 90.6 88.1 83.9 72.5 69.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 83 67 .567 90.4 71.6 80.53373 9.78034 90.31407 -5.13060 -9.10332 Phillies 82 69 .533 88.3 73.7 19.25903 28.72052 47.97955 5.80462 28.60356 Braves 78 73 .536 84.0 78.0 .20723 .63746 .84469 .01414 -2.09199 Nationals 68 83 .439 72.3 89.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 65 86 .465 69.7 92.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Yesterday's action dropped the Mets division hopes by 9 points.

Mendoza Line Sep 19 2007 10:52 AM

Just for grins, I did some quick calculations (I'm an actuary by trade, so I deal with statistics more often than is healthy). Assuming that the Mets and the Phillies each have a 60% chance of winning any given game between now and the end of the season, I came up with an 81.4% probability that the Mets win the division outright and a 13.4% probability of a tie. If the tie mattered for the post-season, there would be a one-game playoff; figure a 50-50 chance that the Mets would win that. So I get an 88.1% probability that the Mets win the division, using a lot of shortcuts and simplifications, and ignoring the Braves and the wild card.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2007 12:31 PM

What if the Phillies are at 60% and the Mets at 20%? Lately, though, it seems like the numbers should be 100 and 0.

Mendoza Line Sep 19 2007 01:33 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: What if the Phillies are at 60% and the Mets at 20%? Probability drops to a pathetically low, and well-earned, 7.2% Hell, I don't want to think about that. If Reyes can somehow get his head out from up his rear and we can avoid Jorge Motaweis for a few days, this will all be forgotten in two weeks.

holychicken Sep 19 2007 01:55 PM

="Mendoza Line"] ="Yancy Street Gang"]What if the Phillies are at 60% and the Mets at 20%? Probability drops to a pathetically low, and well-earned, 7.2% Hell, I don't want to think about that. If Reyes can somehow get his head out from up his rear and we can avoid Jorge Motaweis for a few days, this will all be forgotten in two weeks. I had a full head of hair before the Phillies series and now I am causing car accidents with the glare coming off my skin yarmulke. There's always something there to remind me. doooooo do do do

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2007 02:12 PM

Oh, I assure you this won't be forgotten! We'll either be gnashing our teeth about this collapse all winter, or we'll look back and laugh once the Mets secure a postseason berth. The middle ground here, of course, is that the Mets stumble into the playoffs and get quickly eliminated. That would reduce both the gnashing and the laughter.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 20 2007 06:15 AM

Big improvement today. We gained back ten points towards the division title, but lost some wild card points. With the Padres also winning, the Phillies odds dropped dramatically. Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 87.7 84.3 72.0 69.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 84 67 .566 90.8 71.2 90.60062 3.88954 94.49017 4.20181 -5.31062 Phillies 82 70 .532 87.7 74.3 9.20822 20.18101 29.38922 -18.54576 16.97552 Braves 79 73 .538 84.4 77.6 .19117 .70774 .89891 .04343 -0.74039 Nationals 68 84 .440 71.9 90.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 65 87 .463 69.3 92.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000

Benjamin Grimm Sep 21 2007 01:58 PM

And now we've slid most of the way back to where we were two days ago. We're still a little bit better off than we were on Wednesday, since the lead is still 1.5 and we're two days closer to the end of the season. The real killer is that we were well over 99% a little over a week ago. yeesh. Average wins by position in NL East: 90.4 88.1 84.7 71.8 69.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 84 68 .562 90.2 71.8 81.75885 6.27873 88.03757 -6.45261 -11.72753 Phillies 83 70 .532 88.1 73.9 17.78720 18.70678 36.49398 7.10476 17.51778 Braves 80 73 .538 84.8 77.2 .45395 .64912 1.10308 .20417 -0.78322 Nationals 68 85 .440 71.5 90.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 66 87 .467 69.9 92.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000

Edgy DC Sep 21 2007 02:03 PM

The crazy thing is that Phils, by going 1-1, have lost 11% of their playoff hopes since Monday. They really have their backs to the wall. Our guys are just playing like they do.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 22 2007 06:36 AM

Mets playoff odds improved a little bit; the lead remains at 1.5 games but we're one day closer to the end of the season. Phillies odds, which would otherwise have dropped, increased instead because of the Padres loss to the Rockies. Mets and San Diego have the same record right now. If the Phillies outplay the Mets the rest of the way, the Wild Card can still be in play if the Padres falter. Average wins by position in NL East: 90.8 88.5 84.2 71.2 69.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 85 68 .562 90.6 71.4 83.09293 7.88960 90.98253 2.94496 -8.52061 Phillies 84 70 .534 88.6 73.4 16.85788 26.77911 43.63699 7.14301 20.40747 Braves 80 74 .536 84.2 77.8 .04918 .16478 .21396 -0.88912 -1.91916 Nationals 68 86 .438 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 66 88 .467 69.5 92.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 (San Diego is 27.43945 for the division, 41.52755 for the Wild Card, and 68.96700 overall.)

Benjamin Grimm Sep 23 2007 07:09 AM

Another day closer to the end of the season, and the Mets and Phillies odds both continue to increase, thanks to another loss by San Diego. Mets magic number over the Padres, by the way, is 8. If the Mets go 5-3 the rest of the way, the Phillies can force a tie by going 6-1. But, in that scenario, unless the Padres go at least 6-2, the Mets would land the Wild Card. (Padres' odds are 11.76722 division, 37.03673 wild card, 48.80395 overall.) If the Mets and Phillies end in a tie, but with a better record than San Diego, the Phils are the division champs, the Mets are the Wild Card, and the Padres are spectators. Average wins by position in NL East: 91.2 89.0 84.6 70.7 68.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 86 68 .564 91.1 70.9 84.87475 9.68060 94.55536 3.57283 -4.39606 Phillies 85 70 .535 89.1 72.9 15.10475 40.00673 55.11148 11.47449 26.42275 Braves 81 74 .536 84.7 77.3 .02050 .27330 .29380 .07984 -0.38263 Nationals 68 87 .436 70.5 91.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 66 89 .464 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2007 07:57 AM

Not surprisingly, yesterday's action helped the Mets postseason odds. (Hey, 98.6, it's good to have you back again!) The Padres loss didn't stop the Phillies numbers from dropping, because the Rockies have made themselves a factor once again. (They've now won eight in a row.) Average wins by position in NL East: 91.6 88.5 85.1 71.1 68.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 87 68 .564 91.5 70.5 95.15775 3.53945 98.69720 4.14184 .91302 Phillies 85 71 .535 88.5 73.5 4.83110 43.44318 48.27428 -6.83720 13.93606 Braves 82 74 .539 85.1 76.9 .01115 .85164 .86279 .56899 .17862 Average wins by position in NL West: 90.9 88.6 86.9 83.4 71.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 88 68 .485 90.8 71.2 87.43120 8.03082 95.46202 -0.34161 9.84589 Padres 85 70 .519 88.4 73.6 9.40900 34.41016 43.81916 -4.98479 -21.43687 Rockies 84 72 .547 87.2 74.8 3.15980 9.72233 12.88213 7.45638 10.74702

holychicken Sep 24 2007 08:12 AM

The 5 decimals places of accuracy really brings it all into perspective. :)

Edgy DC Sep 24 2007 09:26 AM

How about them Braves?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2007 09:31 AM

I'll be very happy if the Braves can win two of their next three at Citizens Bank Park. I'll be even happier if they win all three. (A three-game Atlanta sweep would put them tied with the Phillies in second place at 85-74. Both teams would have a tragic number of 2 if the Mets get swept by the Nationals, and they'd both be eliminated (from the NL East race, anyway) by Thursday if the Mets took two from Washington.)

Rockin' Doc Sep 24 2007 11:12 AM

I like that Hudson (16-9 3.34) and Smoltz (14-7 2.95) are the scheduled starters for the Braves on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2007 11:22 AM

If everything goes right, the Mets will clinch on Wednesday night. If everything goes wrong, the Mets will be eliminated on Saturday.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 25 2007 06:07 AM

Last night's loss helps the Phillies more than it hurts the Mets. Padres lost again. Even if the division title slips away from the Mets, the Wild Card chances are very good. Mets Magic Number over San Diego is 5, but they seem more likely to lose on any given day than the Phillies do. Colorado is surging, but the Mets Magic Number for them is 4. Even if the Phillies outplay the Mets by two games, the Wild Card is a likely consolation prize. (I want that division title though!) Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 88.5 85.1 71.8 68.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 87 69 .561 90.9 71.1 90.94177 6.96639 97.90816 -0.78904 2.46349 Phillies 85 71 .535 88.5 73.5 9.02697 47.66327 56.69023 8.41595 14.51530 Braves 82 74 .539 85.1 76.9 .03127 1.21156 1.24282 .38003 .41227 Average wins by position in NL West: 90.8 88.2 86.8 83.4 72.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 88 68 .485 90.8 71.2 91.75357 4.88523 96.63879 1.17677 20.26668 Padres 85 71 .517 87.9 74.1 4.56907 27.10483 31.67389 -12.14527 -38.30257 Rockies 84 72 .547 87.2 74.8 3.67737 12.16189 15.83925 2.95712 14.01447

Benjamin Grimm Sep 26 2007 08:11 AM

Here we go again. Mets odds decreased yesterday, which is a little surprising. (The Phillies loss should have more than offset the loss by the Mets.) Braves are inching back in, but it's most likely too little too late. Padres and Rockies take nice jumps today thanks to their wins and Philadelphia's loss. Cubs and Brewers both have slim Wild Card hopes. (The Brewers can't threaten the Mets for the Wild Card but the Cubs conceivably can.) Average wins by position in NL East: 90.2 88.0 85.6 72.5 69.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 87 70 .560 90.2 71.8 91.57880 4.43639 96.01519 -1.89297 5.72683 Phillies 85 72 .533 88.0 74.0 8.25890 25.94241 34.20131 -22.48892 -13.73367 Braves 83 74 .541 85.7 76.3 .16230 1.26995 1.43225 .18943 .57677 Average wins by position in NL West: 90.4 88.6 87.4 82.9 71.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 88 69 .484 90.3 71.7 80.92990 11.97024 92.90014 -3.73865 10.74346 Padres 86 71 .517 88.4 73.6 10.40755 38.51439 48.92194 17.24805 -24.07518 Rockies 85 72 .546 87.7 74.3 8.66255 17.86391 26.52646 10.68721 23.99383 Average wins by position in NL Central: 85.6 83.6 75.4 73.6 71.1 69.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 83 74 .513 85.5 76.5 85.87565 .00105 85.87669 -7.72108 30.49910 Brewers 81 76 .507 83.7 78.3 14.12435 .00167 14.12602 7.71930 -30.58479

Edgy DC Sep 26 2007 08:18 AM

I'm crazy for the Braves right now, rallying from a backs-to-the-wall .21396 up to 1.43225. That's going from about a one-in-467 chance to about a one-in-70. Bobby Cox is right. People are still paying money, you'd better be still playing hard.

Mendoza Line Sep 26 2007 08:21 AM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Mets odds decreased yesterday, which is a little surprising. (The Phillies loss should have more than offset the loss by the Mets.) May be a strength of schedule issue - the Phillies have one fewer game remaining against the Braves than they did yesterday, while the Mets have one fewer game remaining against the (allegedly) wimpy Nationals.

Edgy DC Sep 26 2007 08:29 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 26 2007 08:30 AM

In addition to the Met loss, wins by the Padres, Roxx, and Braves all took a small bite out of the Mets cookie last night. We slightly increased in the Division, but had a larger drop in our Willd Card consolation prize dream.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 26 2007 08:30 AM

That makes sense. The loss that the Phillies put in the books last night was probably more expected by yesterday's odds than the Mets' loss to the Nationals was.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 27 2007 06:26 AM

Mets playoff hopes dropped more than ten points last night. (Not surprising.) Braves are barely hanging in there. Mets division title hopes are the lowest they've been since I started pasting these figures. Arizona's chances are even worse than the Mets'. Phillies took a nice step forward, but their Wild Card hopes still trail those of San Diego. I'm not sure why the Cubs are showing a zero for the Wild Card. They can still end up in a tie with the Padres for the Card, unless there's something I'm missing. Maybe the 1 million simulations just never happened to land on that combination of results. Average wins by position in NL East: 89.7 88.3 85.2 73.1 69.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 87 71 .558 89.5 72.5 77.49982 8.30389 85.80370 -10.21149 -8.68647 Phillies 86 72 .535 88.4 73.6 22.48217 19.25961 41.74178 7.54047 12.35256 Braves 83 75 .540 85.2 76.8 .01802 .01442 .03243 -1.39982 -0.86648 Average wins by position in NL Central: 85.1 83.1 75.8 73.2 71.6 69.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 83 75 .512 85.0 77.0 89.84160 .00000 89.84160 3.96490 18.04823 Brewers 81 77 .505 83.1 78.9 10.15840 .00000 10.15840 -3.96762 -18.09963 Average wins by position in NL West: 90.0 89.0 87.9 82.4 71.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 88 70 .480 89.7 72.3 62.34122 20.67041 83.01163 -9.88851 -6.88860 Padres 87 71 .520 88.9 73.1 22.27397 34.93080 57.20477 8.28283 -23.89401 Rockies 86 72 .545 88.3 73.7 15.38482 16.82087 32.20569 5.67923 29.10004

Frayed Knot Sep 27 2007 07:10 AM

]not sure why the Cubs are showing a zero for the Wild Card. They can still end up in a tie with the Padres for the Card, unless there's something I'm missing What you're missing is that the Pads & Brewers finsih up against each other. So if the Cubbies win out to "catch" SD that winning streak will make them them Central champs, not the WC.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2007 07:09 AM

No surprise here, but yesterday's Mets loss and Phillies win caused the Mets chances to take a big fall. The Wild Card is now a slim hope for both the Mets and the Phillies; it's most likely to come from the West. The Mets need a good day, where they can drop the magic number by two, and they need it badly. On each of the last few days I've been able to say that the Mets can clinch tomorrow. That's still true, but it's now also true for the Phillies. The Mets can clinch tomorrow. Or they can be eliminated tomorrow. Or this agony can continue until Sunday, or beyond. Average wins by position in NL East: 89.3 88.4 84.7 73.1 70.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 87 72 .556 88.9 73.1 49.67545 8.81009 58.48554 -27.31816 -29.55203 Phillies 87 72 .535 88.9 73.1 50.32455 8.75051 59.07506 17.33328 22.58108 32.3% chance of a tie. Average wins by position in NL West: 90.5 89.4 88.5 81.8 71.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 89 70 .482 90.2 71.8 63.79290 19.08853 82.88142 -0.13021 -4.28416 Padres 88 71 .519 89.4 72.6 20.16820 45.44449 65.61269 8.40792 -17.75668 Rockies 87 72 .548 88.8 73.2 16.03890 17.90638 33.94529 1.73960 30.33282 26.1% chance of a tie. Since the Diamnondbacks and Rockies play each other for three games, there is no way the two of them can finish in a tie, so there is no chance of a three-way tie in the West and so no chance of a five-way tie for the Wild Card.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 28 2007 07:16 AM

What a time to bail, but I gotta head outta town for a wedding this morning. It didn't occur to me until just now that I may have watched my last Met game until 2008. So if they make it or not, I prolly won't be around to see it (unless Farmer Ted happens to be around a TV Saturday nite...)

Edgy DC Sep 28 2007 08:23 AM

Taste the Rockies, Losers!

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2007 05:16 PM

I neglected to post this this morning, so I'll do it now. The numbers are bad, but we can be comforted in knowing they'll be MUCH better tomorrow! Average wins by position in NL East: 89.3 88.2 85.1 72.7 70.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 88 72 .536 89.3 72.7 82.44070 1.53328 83.97398 24.89892 40.33699 Mets 87 73 .555 88.2 73.8 17.55930 3.45709 21.01639 -37.46915 -69.96614 Average wins by position in NL West: 90.9 89.9 88.2 82.2 70.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 90 70 .484 90.8 71.2 91.86900 8.13100 100.00000 17.11858 8.24103 Padres 89 71 .519 89.9 72.1 8.13100 82.47709 90.60809 24.99540 21.64109 Rockies 87 73 .547 88.2 73.8 .00000 4.40154 4.40154 -29.54375 -0.00517 We also know, now, that there will be no playoff game to settle the West title - either Arizona (63.1%) or San Diego (8.1%) can win it directly, and in the 28.8% of the time that they finish in a tie with each other, Arizona would be declared the champ and the Padres would be the wild card. Average wins by NL Wild Card: 89.9 There is still a 45% chance of a wild card tie, but two-thirds of those are between Arizona and San Diego - no playoff. That leaves a 16.25% chance for a wild card playoff, with a 4.8% chance of a three-way tie and a 1.8% chance of a four-way tie still existing. INDAY UPDATE: The Mets' victory drops the Padres' wild card chances from 82.5 to 79.9 and the Rockies' chances from 4.4 to 4.0. The chance of a wild card playoff game is up from 16.3 to 19.8%; the chance of a three-way tie is up from 4.8 to 7.7 and a four-way tie is up from 1.8 to 3.0%.

Edgy DC Sep 29 2007 07:37 PM

Stunning.

metsmarathon Sep 29 2007 08:35 PM

] September 29, 2007, 03:31 PM ET Postseason Odds Updates All Weekend As Games Finish by Clay Davenport At 4:00 eastern time Saturday the Mets‘ finished off a 13-0 thrashing of the Marlins. INDAY UPDATE: The Mets’ thrashing of the Marlins raises their playoff chances from 21.0% to 31.1%: division champ chance up from 17.6 to 25.6, wild card up from 3.5 to 5.5. It cuts the Phillies‘ chances from 82.4/1.5/84.0 to 74.4/2.4/76.9. The chance of an NL East tie, which would require a playoff game, is up to 34.0%. The Mets’ victory drops the Padres‘ wild card chances from 82.5 to 79.9 and the Rockies‘ chances from 4.4 to 4.0. The chance of a wild card playoff game is up from 16.3 to 19.8%; the chance of a three-way tie is up from 4.8 to 7.7 and a four-way tie is up from 1.8 to 3.0%. UPDATE #2: Philly fans go from yesterday’s high to a sad low, as a badly-fielded seventh inning costs them two runs in a 4-2 loss to the Nationals. The East division title odds are now basically 50-50, with a very slight edge to the Phils: 50.4 for them, 49.6 for the Mets. The wild card chance is 3.4% for each of them. Total playoff chance 53.8 Philly, 52.9 New York. The chance of a playoff game is 53.2%. In the wild card, the Padres go back up to 81.0% while the Rockies fall back to 4.1. The chance of a wild card playoff drops a little, down to 17.3, with the three-way tie down to 7.1 but the four-way tie up to 4.0 - not sure I understand that, but OK. UPDATE #3: It didn’t take long after that for the Padres to finish off a loss to the Brewers, 4-3 in 11 inning. That gives Arizona the western division title (there’s still a 17% chance of an Arizona-San Diego tie, but that would mean Arizona wins the division and SD wins the WC) and drives the wild card tie chances way up. The Padres are still a game ahead of everyone else, and so hold 79.7% chance of making the playoffs even with the loss. The Rockies (7.7), Mets (6.3), and Phillies (6.3), more or less split the 20% of the time the Padres don’t make it. The chances of tie games almost double with this decision: a playoff for the WC was needed in 32.5% of the simulations, with an 11.7% chance of a two-way tie, a 13.2% chance of a three-way tie, and a 7.6% chance for a four-way tie. The four-way tie situation is really another three-way tie, since it would also involve the Mets and Phillies being tied for first in the NL East, and the playoff for that would remove the winner from the wild card round. we're still the underdogs...

Edgy DC Sep 29 2007 08:35 PM

The Kolorado Kazuos are stomping all over the Diamondbacks, and I fully expect to wake up tomorrow and see them tied with the Mets and Phils. San Diego goes into their last game tomorrow in first place for the Wild Card, but still with a chance at the Division and a chance at the bupkis.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 30 2007 06:30 AM

Very nice one-day jump for the Mets, as expected. Rockies in the most tenuous position this morning. Average wins by position in NL East: 88.9 88.4 84.6 73.4 70.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 88 73 .561 88.6 73.4 50.28575 6.01201 56.29776 35.28137 -38.25760 Phillies 88 73 .536 88.6 73.4 49.71425 6.01201 55.72626 -28.24772 .61478 Average wins by position in NL West: 90.4 89.5 88.6 82.6 70.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 90 71 .481 90.4 71.6 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 4.19637 Padres 89 72 .519 89.5 72.5 .00000 75.14946 75.14946 -15.45863 26.34551 Rockies 88 73 .550 88.6 73.4 .00000 12.82653 12.82652 8.42498 7.40077

SteveJRogers Sep 30 2007 04:02 PM

One out away from a Rocky Mountain High Play In Game between the Padres and Rockies on Monday!

SteveJRogers Sep 30 2007 04:04 PM

4-3 Rockies now with a runner on 1st

SteveJRogers Sep 30 2007 04:06 PM

And we go to a Game 163, Padres at Rockies! As amazing as the Phillies-Mets race was in the historic sence, how about those Rockies. By virtue of the Padre loss today, the Diamondbacks get their 4th division in their history (99, 01, 02)

cooby Sep 30 2007 04:11 PM

Big whoop.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 30 2007 04:11 PM

Yeah. I don't give a rat's ass either.

SteveJRogers Sep 30 2007 04:12 PM

Yeah I know Coob, just doing some housekeeping in this thread.

seawolf17 Sep 30 2007 04:21 PM

Steve Rogers, Merry Maid.