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2 Innings of Wagner - Blame Willie?

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 07:43 AM

Ok, Billy's rested. He's had a great year overall. I can see putting him in in the eighth and seeing what happens. On the other hand he's had a bunch of bad outings in a row. At what point do you realize that he might not be able to handle the second inning? Before he goes in, as you reflect on his recent poor performances? After the homer by Burrell in the eighth? After it takes about 25 pitches to finish the eighth? After the first two hitters reach in the ninth? After the tying run scores in the ninth? At any point do you get Heilman/Sosa up? Do you ever consider taking Wagner out or do you just live him in there until the game's over? I personally don't have the answers to any of these questions.

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 07:49 AM

He also hasn't had a two inning save in eight years.

Edgy DC Aug 31 2007 07:54 AM

The thing is that he's been much better against righthanders this year than last, but not for the last few weeks. I go to Heilman at least until they get past Burrell. I hate the fact that closers have to work without a net.

TransMonk Aug 31 2007 08:00 AM

He's the closer. He gets paid big money to close big games. Sometimes, in fact very rarely, that means getting 6 out saves. Bringing him in to pitch the 8th was the right move. If he would have mowed them down 1-2-3, the 9th would have been a no-brainer. His struggles in the 8th would have made me squirm as a manager...but there's no way I'm not trotting him back out there to do his job. And given the implosive nature of the bullpen lately, I wouldn't have had any more confidence in Heilman or Sosa to save the game. Isn't this why Wagner is in New York?

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 08:01 AM

I find it amazing that you'd stick to this strategy even after seeing him come apart in spectacular fashion yesterday. If I'm reading you right it seems like you'd do it again the next time because he's paid a lot and that's why he was brought to New York. My goal is to win the game regardless of how much he's paid or why he was brought to New York. If he's struggling, lift him. This is a simple concept to me.

DocTee Aug 31 2007 08:09 AM

I don't think closers need to finish games...the last three outs are no more important than the 24 preceeding them (or more if you are in extra frames)...sometimes the most crucial outs are in the 6-7-8 innings and I'd have no problem running Wagner out there then to get those outs, then letting someone else finish the game on a given day. <----and look who I am

metirish Aug 31 2007 08:13 AM

Closers are just not used to being pulled,I'd have not cared of Willie ran Sosa out for the ninth but I imagine Wagner would have.....yeah that should count for nothing but it does......Willie on Wagner.... ] “He was rested,” Randolph said. “He was facing the middle of the lineup. That’s what he’s getting paid to do.”

Johnny Dickshot Aug 31 2007 08:13 AM

I think Heilman is our closer tonight. The guy I wish we had yesterday was Joe Smith. And not to be a complete I-told-ya-so dick, but Omar's decision not to bolster the bullpen has really come to hurt these last few weeks.

Edgy DC Aug 31 2007 08:16 AM

DocTee wrote: the last three outs are no more important than the 24 preceeding them While importance isn't easily quanifiable, I don't think this is really so. Outs in the seventh inning of a 10-3 game aren't as important as outs in the ninth inning of a 10-9 game, because they're less likely to swing the result. And that's why they're the province of the Darren Olivers of the world.

TransMonk Aug 31 2007 08:20 AM

Elster88 wrote: I find it amazing that you'd stick to this strategy even after seeing him come apart in spectacular fashion yesterday. If I'm reading you right it seems like you'd do it again the next time because he's paid a lot and that's why he was brought to New York. My goal is to win the game regardless of how much he's paid or why he was brought to New York. If he's struggling, lift him. This is a simple concept to me. He's paid a lot and we brought him to New York because he is one of the best in the game at closing. I wouldn't stick with him because of the money, but because he's really good at.

Nymr83 Aug 31 2007 08:24 AM

metirish wrote: Willie on Wagner.... ] “He was rested,” Randolph said. “He was facing the middle of the lineup. That’s what he’s getting paid to do.” thats a sentiment i agree with 100%, its was 100% the right move to have him that 8th inning. how long should he have lasted in th 9th though? i don't know. but certainly there should have been someone warming just in case.

DocTee Aug 31 2007 08:55 AM

]DocTee wrote: the last three outs are no more important than the 24 preceeding them Edgy: While importance isn't easily quanifiable, I don't think this is really so. Outs in the seventh inning of a 10-3 game aren't as important as outs in the ninth inning of a 10-9 game, because they're less likely to swing the result. And that's why they're the province of the Darren Olivers of the world. My point was that three outs in the seventh inning of a 3-2 game were as important as three in the ninth of a 3-2 game.

metsmarathon Aug 31 2007 09:04 AM

bringing billy in for the 8th was a brilliant move. leaving him in for the ninth was expected, and required no brains whatsoever. however, bringing in aaron heilman might've been brighter, given billy's previously stated tired arm, his recent struggles, and the 8th. warming heilman up at the very least would've been perhaps the smartest thing, so that you could bring him in once it was clear that billy wasn't going to get through cleanly. actually, i think heilman does a far better job of holding runners, right? regardless, we needed a fresh arm, not a "grunt grunt he's my closer so i can turn off my brain and let him go out there and whatever hte result i cannot be questioned about it later cos its the ninth and hes my closer, and every other piece of information is immaterial to that fact that it is the ninth inning and no matter what that's what im paying him for so he's gonna fucking pitch it even if his arm is falling half off his body and he cant get a single fucking guy out." heilman should've been ready to come in, and he certainly should've been in there at the very least once the game is tied. because at that point, billy had already shown the he was done for the day. the 8th was where we needed billy yesterday. the ninth could've sufficed with heilman, especially when the other option was a spent, cooled down and ineffective billy.

Edgy DC Aug 31 2007 09:23 AM

="DocTee"] ]DocTee wrote: the last three outs are no more important than the 24 preceeding them Edgy: While importance isn't easily quanifiable, I don't think this is really so. Outs in the seventh inning of a 10-3 game aren't as important as outs in the ninth inning of a 10-9 game, because they're less likely to swing the result. And that's why they're the province of the Darren Olivers of the world. My point was that three outs in the seventh inning of a 3-2 game were as important as three in the ninth of a 3-2 game. Close, but not quite. Win expectancy with the visting team winning by one in the bottom of the seventh: No Outs: 62.9% One Out: 69.3% Two Outs: 72.6% Thre Outs: 76.0% Those three outs increase the win expenctancy from 62.9% to 76.0%, or 13.1 points. Win expectancy with the visting team winning by one in the bottom of the ninth: No Outs: 82.3%% One Out: 91.1% Two Outs: 97.2% Thre Outs: 100.0% Those three outs increase the win expenctancy from 82.3% to 100.0%, or 17.7 points and the ballgame. Now, those 4.6 points may be enough to bring in your best reliever earlier to get the best hitters? Maybe (though in the seventh, they may well come around again by the ninth). My main issue is that I'd prefer a righthander to matchup against Burrell. But, the way Wagner went last night, there's no guarantee that, if somebody else gets Burrell, he still gets the rest.

Gwreck Aug 31 2007 12:04 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Omar's decision not to bolster the bullpen has really come to hurt these last few weeks. Last few months.

DocTee Aug 31 2007 05:00 PM

]Win expectancy with the visting team winning by one in the bottom of the seventh: No Outs: 62.9% One Out: 69.3% Two Outs: 72.6% Thre Outs: 76.0% Those three outs increase the win expenctancy from 62.9% to 76.0%, or 13.1 points. Win expectancy with the visting team winning by one in the bottom of the ninth: No Outs: 82.3%% One Out: 91.1% Two Outs: 97.2% All the more reason to bring your stud in earlier, when the game is more in doubt and victory in jeopardy, than later (when it is all but assured).

Edgy DC Aug 31 2007 05:46 PM

I'm goig to disagree and say it's best to bring him in when he can make the most difference, 17.7 being greater than 13.1.

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 07:41 PM

Gwreck wrote: ="Johnny Dickshot"]Omar's decision not to bolster the bullpen has really come to hurt these last few weeks. Last few months. On M&MD, Omar said he put three waiver claims in for relievers but didn't get any of them.

Johnny Dickshot Aug 31 2007 07:50 PM

Yeah, I heard that. He also said he was in on the gagne stuff but couldn't make it happen. I didn't mean to say he didn't try -- I meant to say he didn't succeed.

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 07:53 PM

Wagner getting loose for the 9th. 45 pitches yesterday.

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 07:54 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Yeah, I heard that. He also said he was in on the gagne stuff but couldn't make it happen. Well so far so good. I think Gagne will get better but what do I know.

Elster88 Aug 31 2007 07:54 PM

Wagner getting loose for the 9th. 45 pitches yesterday.

metirish Aug 31 2007 07:55 PM

Heilman on deck.

Zvon Aug 31 2007 08:39 PM

am I the only one who thinks Wags comments to the press about not wanting to be used in non save situations had anything to do with this? I think Willie was like, ok, then save the 8th and 9th boy.

Frayed Knot Aug 31 2007 08:48 PM

="Zvon"]am I the only one who thinks Wags comments to the press about not wanting to be used in non save situations had anything to do with this? I've never heard - nor heard of - Wagner saying anything like that. Fans can like Wagner or hate him, but during his time here he's been a stand up guy in his comments; calmly taking the blame after bad outings without excuses or whining. The one exception was that 4-walk disaster against the Yanx early in his first year here where he later admitted to not being quite mentally ready to enter that non-save game and thought his performance was off for that reason. But he also apologized to Willie afterward for not being more prepared and vowed that it wouldn't happen again.

Gwreck Aug 31 2007 11:01 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: ="Zvon"]am I the only one who thinks Wags comments to the press about not wanting to be used in non save situations had anything to do with this? I've never heard - nor heard of - Wagner saying anything like that. I think Zvon's either joking or confusing Billy with Bob Wickman.