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David Wright- MVP?

Nymr83
Sep 03 2007 07:22 PM

League Leaders 2007 (from Espn.com)
David Wright:
• Ranks 7th in NL in BA (.320)
• Ranks 12th in NL in HR (26)
• Ranks 9th in NL in RBI (91)
• Ranks 5th in NL in R (94)
• Ranks 9th in NL in BB (80)
• Ranks 6th in NL in SB (30)
• Ranks 6th in NL in OBP (.412)
• Ranks 11th in NL in SLG (.542)
• Ranks 8th in NL in OPS (.955)

Since the All-Star break (minimum 200 plate appearances) Wright leads the NL in BA and OBP, is 2nd in OPS and Rs, and is 6th in RBIs


edit- i am now Turk Wendell, please excuse me while I strike out Big Mac twice in a doubleheader.

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 03 2007 07:27 PM

Just stay the hell away from Luis F. Vizcaino.

Iubitul
Sep 03 2007 07:35 PM

If he gives us 4 more weeks of this - hell yeah.

metsguyinmichigan
Sep 03 2007 07:39 PM

Absolutely!

Who else is even in the conversation? Prince Fielder? Jimmy Rollins?

But to be truthful, Mets players tend to get screwed in MVP voting. Darryl Strawberry losing to Dirty Kirk Gibson was terrible.

And Seaver got robbed in 1969.

seawolf17
Sep 03 2007 07:45 PM

Fielder's a good bet, I'd think.

TransMonk
Sep 03 2007 07:51 PM

Look at NL win shares and runs created. Those numbers look good for David as well.

David will need to continue to produce through September at his August pace, but at this point his name should be mentioned in nearly every conversation.

Valadius
Sep 03 2007 07:55 PM

If we go on a big win streak and he puts up big numbers through the month, he has a shot. Right now, he's in the mix, certainly, but I don't think he's established himself as #1.

DocTee
Sep 03 2007 07:59 PM

I imagine lots of voters would split the Mets between Wright and Reyes, with Beltran getting some consideration, too.

Fielder looks good...anyone on Arizona having a lights-out type of year?

Nymr83
Sep 03 2007 08:04 PM

DocTee wrote:

Fielder looks good...anyone on Arizona having a lights-out type of year?


Brandon Webb is 16-5 with 2 ERA and that 40 inning scoreless streak... but considering how Pedro was robbed once its hard to see a pitcher winning it

Edgy DC
Sep 03 2007 08:25 PM

TransMonk wrote:
Look at NL win shares and runs created. Those numbers look good for David as well.


I'm sure the voters will care more about his steals.

I think we should keep this quiet and let Wright worry about the business at hand.

Zvon
Sep 03 2007 08:53 PM

Fielder is def in this drivers seat.

But if Wright can get (or over):
• HR (30)
• RBI (100)
• Runs (100)

I think he carjacks that honor.

Maaaaaaan, would I love to see this happen.

Frayed Knot
Sep 03 2007 09:16 PM

He's def put himself into the mix.

But so are Rollins, Fielder, Utley, Holliday, Pujols.
The final month will matter a lot.

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 03 2007 09:18 PM

Quietest rise to being the most complete hitter in the league I can remember.

I mean, he sucked bhmc earlier this year.

Frayed Knot
Sep 03 2007 09:27 PM

I may have to change my vote from the 'Reyes or Wright - one or the other' thread that we had a while back.
I said at the time that Jose's newly found OBP skills put him as the better long-term bet where previously I would have backed Wright.
I think I'm changing my mind again.

metirish
Sep 03 2007 09:43 PM

I'm on record as saying he will not win,hope I am proved wrong of course.

attgig
Sep 04 2007 03:31 AM

Frayed Knot wrote:
He's def put himself into the mix.

But so are Rollins, Fielder, Utley, Holliday, Pujols.
The final month will matter a lot.


Question is, how important is it that the MVP's team makes the playoffs? Ryan Howard obviously doesn't care... but some sportswriters might.

bunch of those guys are question marks. utley's injury can hurt. milwakee's 1/2 half bust might leave people down on fielder. rollins for some reason has been quietly productive since saying they're the team to beat. perhaps too quiet for sportswriters. pujols is pujols, and might win it...


i think a met has a good as a chance as any other guy in that list. and wright has been the best met.

Valadius
Sep 04 2007 08:26 AM

If, heaven forbid, the Cardinals make the playoffs, Pujols could end up getting it. However, if David hits 4 more homers, keeps his batting average above .315, winds up with over 100 RBI and 100 runs scored, it looks like it's between him, Prince Fielder, and Matt Holliday. It all depends on which player and which team has the best September. If the Brewers don't make the playoffs, it seriously weighs against Fielder. Some voters might be put off by Holliday's Coors Field-inflated numbers. That leaves it up to Wright to separate himself from his teammates. If that happens, he has a fantastic shot at it.

DocTee
Sep 04 2007 08:32 AM

]If the Brewers don't make the playoffs, it seriously weighs against Fielder.


Andre Dawson won MVP for the last place Cubs. As Branch Rickey would say, "we can finish last without you, too".

Willets Point
Sep 04 2007 09:20 AM

DocTee wrote:
I imagine lots of voters would split the Mets between Wright and Reyes, with Beltran getting some consideration, too.


To perfectly honest, if the voters are having a really tough time picking between Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, I think I like that even better than if any one of them gets the MVP.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 04 2007 09:26 AM

It's nice that Beltran has played himself into the conversation.

sharpie
Sep 04 2007 09:38 AM

]Andre Dawson won MVP for the last place Cubs. As Branch Rickey would say, "we can finish last without you, too".


Yabbut that year there weren't other candidates having the year Dawson had. Second division players have a chance only if there are no standouts among the top clubs, not the case this year.

attgig
Sep 04 2007 11:08 AM

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3002888


espn's talkin about mvps too...
David Wright
Leads the league in: No major categories
Top five in: Runs, runs created per 27 outs
Scoring position: 39 for 126, .310 (62 RBIs in 166 RISP plate appearances)

Jose Reyes seemed to be anointed early as the Mets' designated MVP candidate. But we think Wright has passed his favorite shortstop, with a season that gets better as it rolls along. Sheez, this man has a .477 on-base percentage (best in the big leagues) and .366 batting average since the All-Star break, with 44 runs scored (second only to Jimmy Rollins) and a .593 slugging percentage (better than A-Rod, Magglio or Prince Fielder). Wright also has a shot to be a 30-homer, 30-steal, 100-run, 100-RBI, .300-hitting on-base machine. And Baseball Prospectus ranks him atop every player on an NL contender (and behind only Hanley Ramirez) in VORP. So as much fun as Reyes can be on any given trip around the bases, it's the guy playing next to him who is really the Mets' MVP.

Valadius
Sep 04 2007 12:15 PM

Here's to hoping we cruise through September with Wright keying the offense, the Phillies go into a tailspin, Utley goes into a month-long slump, and Utley, Rollins, and Howard split the Phillies vote. Then I think David Wright wins the MVP. But September is usually the most important month for the MVP and other end-of-year awards (see Piazza, Mike) and players usually win or lose the award during the final month.

HahnSolo
Sep 04 2007 12:32 PM

Much like Reyes seemed overlooked in last year's MVP vote, I think Rollins will be overlooked this year. He should be right up there in the discussion, stupid offseason comments or not.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 04 2007 12:38 PM

An MVP for David Wright would be great, but I'd prefer to see any one of 25 guys on the Mets win the World Series MVP award this year.

Vic Sage
Sep 11 2007 10:36 AM

as of 9/11/07 --

According to ROI (Ralph's Offensive Indicator = RC x OPS), the current top 5 in the NL are:

Fielder = 116.8
Wright = 115
Holliday = 114
H.Ramirez = 113.9
Pujols = 110.6

If Cubs win NL central (eliminating Cards and Brews), and Mr Wright keeps this up, David has a legit claim on the bling.

[u:fb130597a1]The rest of the top 10:[/u:fb130597a1]
C.Jones = 106.2
Utley = 104.1
M.Cabrera = 104.1
Rollins = 102.1
Bonds = 101.6

Where can i find current Win Shares?

attgig
Sep 11 2007 11:18 AM

Vic Sage wrote:
as of 9/11/07 --

According to ROI (Ralph's Offensive Indicator = RC x OPS), the current top 5 in the NL are:

Fielder = 116.8
Wright = 115
Holliday = 114
H.Ramirez = 113.9
Pujols = 110.6

If Cubs win NL central (eliminating Cards and Brews), and Mr Wright keeps this up, David has a legit claim on the bling.

The rest of the top 10:
C.Jones = 106.2
Utley = 104.1
M.Cabrera = 104.1
Rollins = 102.1
Bonds = 101.6

Where can i find current Win Shares?

[url=http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=NL&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit] hard ball times[/url]

Valadius
Sep 11 2007 11:32 AM

Win Shares through 9/8/07:

Wright, NYM - 30
Byrnes, ARZ - 29
Pujols, STL - 28
Martin, LAD - 25
Beltran, NYM - 24
Ramirez, FLA - 24
Cabrera, FLA - 24
Fielder, MIL - 24
Gonzalez, SDP - 23
Utley, PHI - 23
Reyes, NYM - 23
Rollins, PHI - 23
Lee, HOU - 22
Holliday, COL - 22

Vic Sage
Sep 11 2007 12:54 PM

and Wright is 2nd to H.Ramirez in VORP

Elster88
Sep 11 2007 05:02 PM

Keef says 40 times reaching base in his past 80 plate appearances.

Elster88
Sep 11 2007 05:03 PM

I fear that the majority of the old fogeys (fogies?) who vote for MVP don't appreciate win shares and VORP.

Edgy DC
Sep 11 2007 05:12 PM

Agreed. On the other hand, those same fogies probably put credentials in other things David Wright has going for him. Number-three hitter on a playoff team-type stuff.

Elster88
Sep 11 2007 05:17 PM

Philosophically, do you have a problem with the right guy winning for the wrong reasons?

Hypothetically, too.

Edgy DC
Sep 11 2007 06:14 PM

I guess I prefer that to the wrong guy winning for the wrong reasons --- all coming out in the philosophical wash, as it were.

Nymr83
Sep 11 2007 06:46 PM

I'm happy if the (W)right guy wins.

Valadius
Sep 13 2007 01:18 PM

Believe it or not, Steve Phillips is actually picking David Wright to win the NL MVP.

seawolf17
Sep 13 2007 01:20 PM

But he's probably still saying the Mets will miss the playoffs.

Edgy DC
Sep 13 2007 01:29 PM

Why be surprised? Phillips drafted the guy.

Iubitul
Sep 13 2007 01:35 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Why be surprised? Phillips drafted the guy.


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Edgy DC
Sep 13 2007 01:56 PM

I'm not trying to knock his tenure or priase it. I just don't want Met fannies to get caught up too much in the notion that Steve Phillips was fired by the Mets and therefore our team won't get the credit it deserves on Baseball Tonight.

Iubitul
Sep 13 2007 02:00 PM

Point taken, but he still doesn't think the Mets will make the playoffs ;-)

Edgy DC
Sep 13 2007 02:08 PM

I hope BB2N fires him (and each other) the minute the Mets clinch.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 24 2007 12:53 PM

I'd love to see Wright win this thing, but, and I hate to say it, I think a better case can be made for Jimmy Rollins.

TransMonk
Sep 24 2007 12:57 PM

Make it.

Valadius
Sep 24 2007 01:11 PM

A case can be made for Rollins, but I think Utley gets more of the Phillies vote.

David's gotta have a fantastic final week if he's gonna win this thing. Here's how I see the voting right now:

1. Holliday
2. Wright
3. Fielder
4. Utley
5. Pujols

The Rockies' recent surge, propelled by Holliday, has vaulted him into the lead, in my opinion.

metsmarathon
Sep 24 2007 01:52 PM

i still go wright, as most measures i can find do agree, save vorp, which has him 2nd:

player WS WARP3 RC EQR VORP
wright 32 12.6 133 123.8 76.9
ramirez 27 10.1 129 120.8 86.7
pujols 29 12.2 115 117.9 66.6
cabrera 27 10.8 131 116 69
holliday 26 11.8 119 116.1 70.4
rollins 26 11.3 116 111.3 60.6
c jones 24 10.3 111 111.8 73.9
utley 26 10.8 107 102.3 67.6
fielder 26 7.5 115 115.4 62.2
beltran 27 9.4 99 96.3 48.5
reyes 24 10.1 105 103.2 48.2
byrnes 28 9.2 100 92.2 37.1
bonds 22 7.5 91 92.4 56.2


rank among mvp "candidates"
player WS WARP3 RC EQR VORP avg
wright 1 1 1 1 2 1.2
ramirez 4 8 3 2 1 3.6
pujols 2 2 6 3 7 4
cabrera 4 5 2 5 5 4.2
holliday 7 3 4 4 4 4.4
rollins 7 4 5 8 9 6.6
c jones 11 7 8 7 3 7.2
utley 7 5 9 10 6 7.4
fielder 7 12 6 6 8 7.8
beltran 4 10 12 11 11 9.6
reyes 11 8 10 9 12 10
byrnes 3 11 11 13 13 10.2
bonds 13 12 13 12 10 12

Edgy DC
Sep 24 2007 01:56 PM

Any room in that table for Jake PV?

Frayed Knot
Sep 24 2007 02:08 PM

What Wright has going for him above most of the other likely suspects is OBP - a whopping .414 at the moment - which is why many of those metrics above rate him so high. Only Helton, Chipper & Pujols are higher in the NL (w/enough ABs).

The other is that certain voters (wrongly IMO) will eliminate those not on a playoff team (as if missing by a game or two makes one less valuable) so this week's games could eliminate Fielder & Holliday on some ballots, and maybe Utley & Rollins as well.

I believe I heard Adam Rubin say a few weeks back that he has one of the NL-MVP votes this year.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 24 2007 02:10 PM

I think Rollins will be helped by his being a shortstop.

Edgy DC
Sep 24 2007 02:13 PM

It sure will be interesting to see how deeply Hanley Ramirez's season gets buried.

A Boy Named Seo
Sep 24 2007 02:15 PM

Coors Field's Park Factor is 107 this year, not so crazy a hitter's park as it used to, but still second most favorable in the league (GAP in Cincy is 108). Shea, by comparison, is a 95, and Wright kills there.

You can't count Holliday's numbers at home against him or anything, and it's not like he sucks on the road, but the [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=hollima01&year=2007]splits [/url]are pretty dramatic and worth noting.

metsmarathon
Sep 24 2007 03:07 PM

peavy's lines inserted into the table... sorta...

there's no good correspondence to EQR and RC, tho i am using PRC (pitching runs created) from hardball times as it seems the closest analogue on the same scale, or so.

looks like he's about 6th.
player WS WARP3 RC EQR VORP
wright 32 12.6 133 123.8 76.9
ramirez 27 10.1 129 120.8 86.7
pujols 29 12.2 115 117.9 66.6
cabrera 27 10.8 131 116 69
holliday 26 11.8 119 116.1 70.4
peavy 22 11.2 145 75.7
rollins 26 11.3 116 111.3 60.6
c jones 24 10.3 111 111.8 73.9
utley 26 10.8 107 102.3 67.6
fielder 26 7.5 115 115.4 62.2
beltran 27 9.4 99 96.3 48.5
reyes 24 10.1 105 103.2 48.2
byrnes 28 9.2 100 92.2 37.1
bonds 22 7.5 91 92.4 56.2


rank WS WARP3 RC EQR VORP avg
wright 1 1 2 1 2 1.4
ramirez 4 9 4 2 1 4
pujols 2 2 7 3 8 4.4
cabrera 4 6 3 5 6 4.8
holliday 7 3 5 4 5 4.8
peavy 13 5 1 3 5.5
rollins 7 4 6 8 10 7
c jones 11 8 9 7 4 7.8
utley 7 6 10 10 7 8
fielder 7 13 7 6 9 8.4
beltran 4 11 13 11 12 10.2
reyes 11 9 11 9 13 10.6
byrnes 3 12 12 13 14 10.8
bonds 13 13 14 12 11 12.6

Valadius
Sep 25 2007 11:22 AM

I think it'll come down to the wire now, but if Wright continues doing what he's been doing, I think he has a fantastic shot at it. He's hitting .417 (20 for 48) with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 7 RBIs during his current 11-game hit streak. We just gotta win some ballgames.

Tony Gwynn gave his predictions the other day for the NL MVP:

1. Prince Fielder
2. Matt Holliday
3. Chase Utley/Jimmy Rollins

TransMonk
Sep 25 2007 11:43 AM

Valadius wrote:

Tony Gwynn gave his predictions the other day for the NL MVP:

1. Prince Fielder
2. Matt Holliday
3. Chase Utley/Jimmy Rollins


I'd put more stock in those predictions if a) Gwynn had ever won an MVP and b) his kid didn't play for the Brewers.

metirish
Sep 25 2007 11:54 AM

What about Keith and Ron saying last night that there should be a " Player of the Year" to go with the MVP like there used to be back in the day,it was "The Sporting News PoTY"....that came up because Gary wondered weather a player can be MVP on a crap team(thinks they can)....Keith said it was very prestiges to win The Sporting News award the year he shared the MVP......he also wondered why they don't sponsor it anymore.Gary told him The Sporting News is so marginalized these days people don't even know about it.....

soupcan
Sep 25 2007 12:18 PM

A kid came to my door almost two years ago selling magazine subscriptions. He was a nice kid so I bought a few from him even though he represented no magazines that I read at the time.

I wound up with two-year subscriptions to The Sporting News, Metropolitan Home (I live in the suburbs) and Cooking Light (yeah, right). I know it was almost two years ago because thankfully, The Sporting News subscription is about to lapse.

I used to subscribe to TSN when I was in high school and I loved it. I was living in California at the time and it was really my only source of regular Mets news. It was printed on newsprint and was just chock full of baseball news. In those days it still was 'The Baseball Bible'.

These last two years have just shown me how far it as fallen. Baseball is a sidenote to the NASCAR coverage and the writing is like ESPN The Magazine which is geared to people much younger than me.

Not only do I rarely open up TSN when it comes every week but I usually just toss it right in the garbage without even looking at it.

Vic Sage
Sep 25 2007 12:19 PM

]What about Keith and Ron saying last night that there should be a " Player of the Year" to go with the MVP like there used to be back in the day,it was "The Sporting News PoTY".


i've long clamored for something like this.There is a pitcher of the year award, there is an award for defense at each position, but how can their not be a hitter of the year in each league?

well, of course, there was such an award.... that was what the mvp was created for. But sportswriters have long since construed "valuable" more narrowly than it was intended, and as a result great seasons have been ignored because they happened on teams that did not "win" sufficiently (wherever that line in the sand may be)

Once you have a player of the year award, the MVP becomes an award for the best player or pitcher on the winningest team in each league. Then, the sportswriters can go "intangible" crazy and give it to anybody meeting those criteria, and ignore statistical analysis entirely, if they want.

But lets get that award back and honor the singular distinction of being the best hitter in your league. It can be based on a point system (like the Rolaids award), using some version of what marathon has done.

Frayed Knot
Sep 25 2007 12:31 PM

The thing about the 'Player of the Year' award that Keith was talking about is that although it was award given from outside MLB itself, TSN was so highly regarded within baseball circles in those days that it was as good as MLB's own awards like the MVP.

They may still give that award for all I know, but TSN abandoned their full-time coverage of baseball in order to attract fans of other sports and wound up pleasing no one. I too used to subscribe years ago but gave it up as it started heading downhill.


]Not only do I rarely open up TSN when it comes every week but I usually just toss it right in the garbage without even looking at it.


I've told this story before; but I followed an on-line link to a free 1-year subscription for 'The Sporting News'.
I discovered I was being overcharged.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 25 2007 12:40 PM

I too LOVED the Sporting News and I thought (in my youthful folly) that I'd be a lifetime subscriber.

I canceled it in 1991 when they "revamped" it. It instantly became something I wasn't interested in. I can only imagine how much further it's declined since then.

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2007 12:46 PM
Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Sep 27 2007 09:37 PM

And I've long questioned how you can decry that sportswriters are construing the award more narrowly than its intent, when you insist on construing it more narrowly than its intent.

Nymr83
Sep 25 2007 12:47 PM

]I'd put more stock in those predictions if a) Gwynn had ever won an MVP


what the heck does that have to do with it?

metsguyinmichigan
Sep 25 2007 01:49 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 25 2007 03:32 PM

My knock on Gwynn's comments is that he has three spaces -- and lists four players.

Dude, if you have four names, then list four spaces. You have a tie vote, so man up and pick either Rollins or Utley. If you can't decide between the two, then neither are worthy.

As for Wright, he deserves it.

But, Mets almost always get screwed in MVP voting. Seaver got hosed in 69, Carter in 1986, and -- perhaps the biggest outrage -- Darryl losing to Dirty Kirk in 1988.

I like Prince Fielder. I hope he can keep it together. But I watched his Dad play in Detroit, and it was such a shame because the guy just ballooned and probably lost years off his career. Prince is already a big kid. I just hope he doesn't go Mo Vaughn/Kevin Mitchell.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 25 2007 02:01 PM

Carter in 1986?

He was a more worthy candidate in 1985, I think, although if I remember correctly, my MVP hopes that winter were directed towards Doc Gooden.

Keith in 1984 had a real shot, but I won't quarrel with Sandberg winning it. That probably could have gone either way.

DocTee
Sep 25 2007 02:46 PM

isn't there a recently-minted Hank Arraon Award for the best hitter in each league?

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2007 02:48 PM

it's pretty established, highly broken, hilghly disregarded, and needs to be fixed. Hank Aaron should be pissed.

Nymr83
Sep 25 2007 02:51 PM

he shouldn't be there when they give out the award

Valadius
Sep 25 2007 03:47 PM

Baseball-Reference hasn't updated its stats to show yesterday's games, but as of yesterday, in the National League, David Wright was:

1st in times on base
2nd in runs created
3rd in OPS+ and power/speed number
5th in OBP
6th in runs scored and hits
7th in total bases, stolen bases, and walks
8th in RBI and OPS
9th in batting average and games played
10th in plate appearances

cooby
Sep 25 2007 06:15 PM

="soupcan"]A kid came to my door almost two years ago selling magazine subscriptions. He was a nice kid so I bought a few from him even though he represented no magazines that I read at the time.

I wound up with two-year subscriptions to The Sporting News, Metropolitan Home (I live in the suburbs) and Cooking Light (yeah, right). I know it was almost two years ago because thankfully, The Sporting News subscription is about to lapse.

I used to subscribe to TSN when I was in high school and I loved it. I was living in California at the time and it was really my only source of regular Mets news. It was printed on newsprint and was just chock full of baseball news. In those days it still was 'The Baseball Bible'.

These last two years have just shown me how far it as fallen. Baseball is a sidenote to the NASCAR coverage and the writing is like ESPN The Magazine which is geared to people much younger than me.

Not only do I rarely open up TSN when it comes every week but I usually just toss it right in the garbage without even looking at it.


Was he selling The New Yorker? Those kids never seem to be selling The New Yorker.

Absolute ditto on TSN by the way. Do they still have Caught on the Fly? That was the beginning of the end for me.

Vic Sage
Sep 26 2007 08:27 AM

Edgy DC wrote:
And I've long questioned how you can decry that sportswriters are construing the award more narrowly than its intent, when you insist on construing it more narrowly than its intent.


i don't include pitchers in my personal consideration for the MVP because

1) when the MVP was created in 1911, there was no cy young award, so it was appropriate to consider both players and pitchers;

2) but pitchers have had a prestigious award that recognizes their accomplishment since 1956, and hitters don't, and

3) therefore, i exclude them from consideration as a protest against the fact of #2.

Once hitting is separately acknowledged in the same way as pitching (and as you acknowlege, the Aaron award hardly accomplishes that), then I'd be happy to see the MVP go to anybody the writers felt deserving.

metirish
Sep 26 2007 08:37 AM

Yeah the Hank Aaron award doesn't rate at all,when the booth was talking about this the other night it didn't even rate a mention.Keith said winning the PoTY that time (79) was a "huge honor and surprise",PoTH they felt could be the best all round player in the league separate from MVP....last night Gary asked if the fans should vote for the MVP and Keith shouted "hell no they make a mess of the All-Star team..............."

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2007 08:49 AM

I understand your position, but I don't think that's the appropriate way to protest. Use your lobbying to fix the appropriate award, which is growing in prestige even if it's absolutely being decided in an improper manner.

Two guys are up for a Nobel Peace Prize. One is a doctor and one is an engineer. It would be unjust to award it to the engineer simply because doctors have their own Nobel Prize in Medicine and engineers don't.

The world would be robbed because the paragon of peace placed before them by a supposedly informed body is the wrong guy.

The National League's very first MVP was Dazzy Vance. So when you say:

There is a pitcher of the year award, there is an award for defense at each position, but how can their not be a hitter of the year in each league?

well, of course, there was such an award.... that was what the mvp was created for.
...that's just untrue.

duan
Sep 26 2007 09:12 AM
meanwhile

in VORP terms David Wright has had the best season by a met ever (and a late season tear would increase his lead too).

Rockin' Doc
Sep 26 2007 11:26 AM

Wouldn't the Silver Slugger Awards be the hitters equivalent of the Gold Glove Award for defense? Still, I think a PoTY Award would be good idea. It would provide a chance to reward excellence in individual performance without concern for the quality of the team for which the individual plays.

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2007 11:32 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 26 2007 11:38 AM

Correctly rewarding the outstanding batsman, or outstanding offensive player is what is needed.

Creating a Player of the Year Award, and relegting MVP to include only hitters, would make it what it never was and never was meant to be, and reward the intransigence of those voters who tried to make it so.

bmfc1
Sep 26 2007 11:33 AM

I agree that a distinct award is needed to separate "the best season" from "the most valuable player." Keep the "MVP" award for "value"--if your team finishes last, perhaps you weren't that valuable since your team would have finished last without you. Have "The Babe Ruth Award" for the AL and "The Hank Aaron Award" for the NL to honor the batter who has the best season. For those, it doesn't matter if your team stinks.

Frayed Knot
Sep 26 2007 11:36 AM

And it's not like the decision is going to be made any easier by the top candidates limping towards the finish line.

Stats for September:

>
PlayerABHitsBAOBASLGHRsRunsRBI
Holliday8129.358.432.852122426
Rollins11131.279.316.53261715
Wright8830.341.422.63661618
Fielder8029.363.474.800112222

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2007 11:40 AM

I disagree that a player on a last-place team lacks the value of a player offering the same performance on a first-place team.

HahnSolo
Sep 26 2007 11:52 AM

Valadius wrote:
Baseball-Reference hasn't updated its stats to show yesterday's games, but as of yesterday, in the National League, David Wright was:

1st in times on base
2nd in runs created
3rd in OPS+ and power/speed number
5th in OBP
6th in runs scored and hits
7th in total bases, stolen bases, and walks
8th in RBI and OPS
9th in batting average and games played
10th in plate appearances


I just checked Holliday:

1st in Hits, Total Bases, Doubles, RBI, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits
2nd in Batting Average, Slugging pct.
4th in Runs Scored, Home Runs, OPS, Times on Base
9th in OBP, Plate Appearances

It's Game and Set, and Holliday is serving for the Match.

Nymr83
Sep 26 2007 12:08 PM

]I disagree that a player on a last-place team lacks the value of a player offering the same performance on a first-place team


i think theres some, though not much, merit to the argument that the guy who helped his team reach the playoffs did it under tougher pressure than the guy who was in last place... though that works equally well against the guy who ran away with his division. i'm willing to say that "playoff team" should be something of a tiebreaker, but a clearly better season shouldnt be disregarded because the team didn't finish well.

Valadius
Sep 26 2007 12:10 PM

I think the stat to keep an eye on is going to be runs created. Currently it's:

1. Holliday 144
2. Wright 142
3. Fielder 140
4. H. Ramirez 138
T-5. Rollins 129
T-5. Utley 129

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2007 12:17 PM

Nymr83 wrote:
]I disagree that a player on a last-place team lacks the value of a player offering the same performance on a first-place team


i think theres some, though not much, merit to the argument that the guy who helped his team reach the playoffs did it under tougher pressure than the guy who was in last place...


Some.

Nymr83 wrote:
though that works equally well against the guy who ran away with his division.


Good point. These guys aren't oft penalized.

Nymr83 wrote:
i'm willing to say that "playoff team" should be something of a tiebreaker, but a clearly better season shouldnt be disregarded because the team didn't finish well.


Is there merit to crediting a guy who is grinding it out, maintiaining a standard of excellence on a flailing team, with going-nowhere teammates and sparse and apathetic crowds, with little to motivate him to continually push beyond the apparent limits of his excellence, save his deep sense of professionalism, determination, and refusal to accept last place when even fourth is attainable --- who gives those paying customers his all with no ring on the line, but respect for the game and the sacrifice they made to come see him play?

I think some.

How about respect for the guy who goes out there with the pressure of knowing that --- unlike players on first-place teams --- if he has a bad day, it's far less likely that a teammate will pick him up?

I think some.

Value is value. A guy adds ten games to his team's win total, I don't care if they were wins 41-50 or 111-120.

His team is too oft a matter of circumstance. The professional credit he gets shouldn't be.

TransMonk
Sep 26 2007 12:31 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 26 2007 12:50 PM

I really don't have a clear cut favorite to tell you the truth. I am really enjoying the fact that the NL is producing a bunch of new young superstars instead of the same boring Bonds/Pujols race it seems we've had for the past decade.

For me the race is between, in no particular order: Fielder, Holliday and Wright with Rollins being a not as close 4th. I think all of them have valid arguments for being MVP. IMO, and I'm no Tony Gwynn, I think Wright as the least arguments against him. That being said, I wouldn't be disappointed if any of Fielder, Holliday or Wright ended up winning.

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2007 12:45 PM

Nearsighted, but every time Utley swings a bat against the Mets, I'm convinced he's the best player in the league.

Vic Sage
Sep 26 2007 01:48 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Correctly rewarding the outstanding batsman, or outstanding offensive player is what is needed.

Creating a Player of the Year Award, and relegting MVP to include only hitters, would make it what it never was and never was meant to be, and reward the intransigence of those voters who tried to make it so.


but i propose the opposite of your strawman proposal. I propose an appropriate award for best hitter, so MVP can go back to awarding best player (hitter or pitcher, winning team or not), as it was originally intended.

When the MVP was created in 1911, Cobb and Shulte both won it while playing for 2nd place teams. So there was no limitation on the award, from its inception, to giving it only to players from playoff teams. And, until 1956, the award was appropriately given to both hitters and pitchers

But since the creation of the cy young award in 1956, pitchers have been eligible for 2 awards for the same season of production, while hitters have been limited to one. That is inherently inequitable.

the silver slugger doesn't address the issue because it gives 18 awards, arbitarily given by position, that might be ignoring many of the best hitters in each league, simply because there may be a hitter at their particular position that was better. To award a catcher over superior hitters at other positions, for example, doesn't really address the current underlying inequity.

if Aaron and Ruth awards were promoted to the level of the cy young, that would be the answer, but so far that has not happened. And until it does, i continue my pointless little protest which takes the form only of being argumentative on the subject.

Benjamin Grimm
Sep 26 2007 01:54 PM

I was wondering how you raise the stature of an award? How do you make people care?

Does MLB hold a bigger or better press conference for the Cy Young award than they do for the Hank Aaron? Or does MLB treat them both the same, but the press ignores one and gets excited over the other?

Vic Sage
Sep 26 2007 02:15 PM

why would the press care about the best pitcher more than best hitter?

its just that CYA has been around for 50 years and the Aaron is of recent origin. The award is of such a low profile that even industry professionals like Mets announcers don't know it exists and express longing for an award other than the MVP that would recognize great seasons by somebody other than those on playoff teams.

If MLB were to hold a press conference and say that because sportswriters have not been voting in a way consistent with the spirit of the award, MLB will reformat the "hitter of the year" award for both leagues, and the CY, too, to take into consideration quantitative analysis, and that they will then clarify that the MVP is open to any hitter or pitcher and, while value will be determined subjectively, voters are prohibited from excluding players from consideration solely based on the performance of their teams.

I think such a press conference would get much play in the media. But MLB will never do it. They like the vagueness, and the arguments, and don't give a $hit about the inherent inequities of their current system.

Valadius
Sep 26 2007 02:24 PM

The way the Aaron award has been managed is ludicrous. Arbitrarily come up with finalists? Let the idiot masses vote on it and screw it up like they do All-Star selections? Please. I'd turn it into something the players and/or managers vote on, making sure that they can't vote for a teammate.

Vic Sage
Sep 26 2007 02:55 PM

i wouldn't have it be decided by a vote at all! let a committtee hash out a SABRmetric formula for both, so they're both objectively decided.

Then, let the reporters continue to do the MVP voting, using whatever narrow, anecdotal, subjective, parochial criteria they wish to employ, so long as they do not create determinative criteria like "no pitchers" or "no DHs" or "from playoff teams only".

Nymr83
Sep 26 2007 03:12 PM

i'd have no problem with that, as longas the formula was a good one and not "highest SLG% wins" or something

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2007 07:24 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 27 2007 09:35 PM

Vic Sage wrote:
="Edgy DC"]Correctly rewarding the outstanding batsman, or outstanding offensive player is what is needed.

Creating a Player of the Year Award, and relegting MVP to include only hitters, would make it what it never was and never was meant to be, and reward the intransigence of those voters who tried to make it so.


but i propose the opposite of your strawman proposal.


I was responding to the post before mine.

metsmarathon
Sep 27 2007 09:26 AM

i plan on eventually running the top MVP contenders in the NL through my schaeffer spreadsheet (the absolute points generator, not the relativistic vote generator that requires input from the entire team) to see how they compare.

obviously, i'll be more interested in this project if the mets make it, but will likely have more time to do it if they don't...

i figure i'll run matt holliday through forst, then maybe give peavy a try, and then go back to some more of hte top hitters. depending on how peavy compares, i might then have to do more pitchers.

the one drawback is that i don't do too much in terms of defense. i mean, i do have a checkbox for "webgems" (also have one for brain farts, or other mind numbingly dumb moves like endy's stolen third base the otehr night) but for this task, i won't be able to account for them.

i'd consider trying, based on mlb.com's available video highlights with top plays from each game, but those damned things never run on my computers, even the free ones. also, that'd just be a bit too much time to invest... maybe next year...

Rockin' Doc
Sep 27 2007 08:52 PM

Vic Sage - "the silver slugger doesn't address the issue because it gives 18 awards, arbitarily given by position, that might be ignoring many of the best hitters in each league, simply because there may be a hitter at their particular position that was better. To award a catcher over superior hitters at other positions, for example, doesn't really address the current underlying inequity."

Good point and I agree with it, but couldn't the same be said regarding the gold glove awards. The second best defensive shortstop, is likely better defensively and more valuable defensively than say the best fielding first baseman. The Gold Glove Awards are pretty well promoted and accepted by the general public. Unfortunately, the Gold Glove award is frequently awarded as much on reputation as it is actual defensive performance.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2007 09:44 PM

Vic Sage wrote:
i've long clamored for something like this.There is a pitcher of the year award, there is an award for defense at each position, but how can their not be a hitter of the year in each league?

well, of course, there was such an award.... that was what the mvp was created for.


Vic Sage wrote:
i don't include pitchers in my personal consideration for the MVP because

1) when the MVP was created in 1911, there was no cy young award, so it was appropriate to consider both players and pitchers;

2) but pitchers have had a prestigious award that recognizes their accomplishment since 1956, and hitters don't, and

3) therefore, i exclude them from consideration as a protest against the fact of #2.

Once hitting is separately acknowledged in the same way as pitching (and as you acknowlege, the Aaron award hardly accomplishes that), then I'd be happy to see the MVP go to anybody the writers felt deserving.


There's more important things, like my team crashing and burning, but these moving targets are difficult.

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 01 2007 01:21 PM

I don't think we'll be on the edges of our seats when it's time to announce the MVP winners next month.

I'm sure the collapse (or should it be known as "The Collapse" instead?) has killed David's candidacy.

Nymr83
Oct 01 2007 01:24 PM

without a doubt it has.

i'd vote for Holliday, but Rollins, Peavy, Fielder, Ramirez, and probably a few other guys are up there too. theres no clear candidate.

Valadius
Oct 01 2007 01:35 PM

David won't get it.

The one thing that would have kept him as an option at the top was that the Mets were gonna be a playoff team. Now he ends up in 4th, most likely, behind Holliday, Rollins, and Fielder.

soupcan
Oct 01 2007 01:42 PM

My vote goes to Rollins.

Frayed Knot
Oct 01 2007 01:49 PM

I predict: Rollins, Fielder, Holiday, Wright

metirish
Oct 01 2007 01:55 PM

Were the votes cast, if not then when?

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 01 2007 01:59 PM

They get cast some time between the end of the regular season and before the playoffs start.

Zvon
Oct 01 2007 02:31 PM

Rollins.
Oh my, how it pains me to say that.


So what do I do with this?
Do I save it?
Burn it?
Give it to charity?
Whats the proper procedure.

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 01 2007 02:37 PM

How many hours per day do you spend Photoshopping Mets images?

G-Fafif
Oct 01 2007 02:39 PM

The Wright for MVP boomlet was symptomatic of what was wrong with the presumptuousness that surrounded this team all year. Wright is becoming a very good player. He is very valuable. To have lumped him in with Rollins or Holliday or Fielder for 2007 as most valuable was laughable when it was going on and it is sad today.

I don't want to give Glavine any outs (outs as in excuses, not outs as in Glavine should have gotten more than one), but as part of his standard not-my-fault sappy recap after the game, he was in "a couple of grounders got through, a couple of bloops fell in" mode -- and he was right about the Jacobs hit that eluded David. David did not move on that ball until it was definitively going by him. He has subpar reflexes for a third baseman.

In doling out blame, Wright would come in about 60th on this club, but it wasn't as if he put this team on his back and it was everybody else's fault either.

Frayed Knot
Oct 01 2007 02:57 PM

]To have lumped him in with Rollins or Holliday or Fielder for 2007 as most valuable was laughable when it was going on and it is sad today


I don't agree.
I think he was, and still is, a legit choice, just one that's going to fall a bit short due to various factors; among them his team not winning (blah, blah), his lack of any one great stat, the tendancy of writers to rely on "signature moments" such as Rollins on Sunday for their votes, etc.
But he had a better OBA than all and a better BA than all but Holliday, terrific 'across-the-board' stats, a great September (better than Rollins) even if his team didn't, all in a tougher hitters' park to contend with than the rest. Plus it's not like Holliday & Fielder are winning gold gloves at corner positions either.

metsmarathon
Oct 01 2007 03:18 PM

i'd have dwright as a better candidate, in my mind, than rollins fer sure.

Zvon
Oct 01 2007 03:28 PM

="Yancy Street Gang"]How many hours per day do you spend Photoshopping Mets images?



Is that a problem?
Jack: "Chloe, I need all the info we've got on a "Yancy" street gang.
Start with the New York data base. Work backwards from 'Z'."

Grote15
Oct 01 2007 06:10 PM

I don't think Wright was an MVP candidate in the best of times..too many airmailed throws and then that force at third where he waited to tag the guy..ouch

I'd Rollins..but Fielder will probably get it

Edgy DC
Oct 01 2007 07:44 PM

I thik Wright's reflexes are fine. I trust his reflexes better than I trust his nerves. He's seemingly sharper with less time to think.

metsmarathon
Oct 01 2007 09:51 PM

honestly, i don't think that tag at third was anything more than landing off balance from trying to snag the errant throw from loduca...

Edgy DC
Oct 01 2007 10:20 PM

Holliday gets my vote as soon as he touches home plate.

holychicken
Oct 01 2007 10:22 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Holliday gets my vote as soon as he touches home plate.

So does he get your vote or not? I am not sure. . .

What a game.

Frayed Knot
Oct 01 2007 10:25 PM

Helluva hitter but neither his fielding nor baserunning skills were on display tonight.

And that's part of the problem with the earlier anti-MVP argument for Wright; you're more likely to see the warts on your own guys simply because you see so much more of them.

G-Fafif
Oct 01 2007 10:28 PM

Frayed Knot wrote:
Helluva hitter but neither his fielding nor baserunning skills were on display tonight.

And that's part of the problem with the earlier anti-MVP argument for Wright; you're more likely to see the warts on your own guys simply because you see so much more of them.


Totally agree with that and totally agree that colors my impression of Wright. All I know from the other contenders are the heroics I hear about and then I get impatient waiting for the same performance from David.

I still never felt it from Wright, though.

metsmarathon
Oct 02 2007 07:27 AM

i think it'll go to holliday. he leads the league in average, rbi, and is up there in homers. and i don't think there's too much of an impression that he's a product of coors, regardless of the home/road splits.

Frayed Knot
Oct 02 2007 07:41 AM

Not really sure what kind of "performance" you feel is missing. Everything since
around May 1 has been awesome, and he spent August & September getting on base
nearly half the time.
I guess maybe if the staff didn't give away so many of our early 3, 4 and 5 runs leads
some of his early-inning RBIs & runs scored would have stood out more.


btw, NL leaders in 'Runs Created' (roughly the sum of all offensive stats translated into
a runs/game estimate for those not followers of that kind of stuff):
1 - Miguel Cabrera
2 - DAVID WRIGHT
3 - Hanley Ramirez
4 - MATT HOLLIDAY
5 - PRINCE FIELDER
6 - JIMMY ROLLINS
7 - Albert Pujols
8 - Ryan Howard
9 - Adrian Gonzalez
10 - Ryan Zimmerman

Now the difference between each spot is pretty much hair splitting when they're that
close - but it does show that the four presumed leaders are in the same ballpark with David
at worst holding his own.
Also, the same site I got those from also lists all four as being somewhat below average
at "being clutch" - iow, none of that group had any demonstrated ability (or even coincidental
ability) at timing their offensive output for maximum damage.

Edgy DC
Oct 02 2007 07:56 AM

I don't like the notion that he's going to be hurt by not having a super stat.

He'd have more RBI if the guys in front of him had better years, he'd have more runs if the guys behind him had better years.

metsmarathon
Oct 02 2007 08:14 AM

there are so many damned runs created sites out there... and none of them agree.

hardball times disagrees with bbref which disagrees with espn.com

the underlying thread is that if wright isn't the best hitter in the NL, he's in the top three.

player RC THT RC ESPN RC BBREF AVG
wright 136 138.4 146 140.13
holliday 129 142.2 149 140.07
ramirez 130 136.5 141 135.83
fielder 127 135.5 143 135.17
cabrera 138 126.2 132 132.067
rollins 122 133.4 135 130.13
pujols 122 126.9 132 126.97
c jones 116 121.4 130 122.47
utley 109 121.3 130 120.1
reyes 107 112.2 110 109.73
beltran 104 107.1 109 106.7
byrnes 99 108 108 105
bonds 91 97.1 99 95.7


...

rank RC THT RC ESPN RC BBREF AVG
wright 2 2 2 2
holliday 4 1 1 2
ramirez 3 3 4 3.33
fielder 5 4 3 4
cabrera 1 7 6 4.67
rollins 6 5 5 5.33
pujols 6 6 6 6
c jones 8 8 8 8
utley 9 9 8 8.67
reyes 10 10 10 10
beltran 11 12 11 11.33
byrnes 12 11 12 11.67
bonds 13 13 13 13


but i don't think the voters look at this stuff...

Vic Sage
Oct 02 2007 10:17 AM

what about win shares and VORP rankings?

metsmarathon
Oct 02 2007 12:45 PM

last i checked, win shares on the hardball times hadn't been updated since 18 sept, when wright had a sizeable lead over pujols and the rest of the field.

vorp-wise, wright comes in second behind hanley ramirez. warp-wise, wright takes the cake.

i had put in that chart way back on page 2 i think, and nothing much has really changed wrt the relative rankings, tho the numbers have all gone up somewhat.

bottom line is that wright was still arguably the best player in the nl this year

Grote15
Oct 02 2007 06:43 PM

All the stats here are valid and accurate but the voters vote on the buzz dujour....Unfortunately for David there ain't no buzz..this year....

I still think it will be Rollins...if not...The Prince of Tides Fielder

metsmarathon
Oct 02 2007 06:49 PM

if the voters look at mvp numbers, then there's no way holliday doesn't get it.

but wright woulda got my vote, had i one.

Vic Sage
Oct 11 2007 09:21 AM

This guy says Wright, too.

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/The_Dan/2007/10/10/Rollins_MVP_Not_buying_it

TransMonk
Oct 11 2007 09:32 AM

]...Wright was the man the entire year, hit for a great average with great power, fielded his position like a gold glover and added 30+ stolen bases to his credit.


Only if they give GGs to everyone in the league.

Edgy DC
Oct 11 2007 09:43 AM

I don't think he was a Gold Glover either, but he had some moments. But the gloving is what we see everyday from him and don't see everyday from others. But neither do the voters see the erratickness that we sometimes saw.

A long way of saying I don't think defense is likely to be the factor that costs him, and, based on some of those speculators, it might be as likely to help him.

He caught a pop barehanded a few years ago!

Vic Sage
Oct 11 2007 09:47 AM

defensively, he's frustrating because he can make great plays and miss simple ones. He's got great quickness, good hands and a strong arm, but when he has too much time, his throws are erratic. That's his main weakness on defense, and i have the sense that its fixable. I think he actually COULD be a GGer eventually, with his tools and work ethic, but certainly not until it becomes safer to sit in the field boxes behind 1b.

Frayed Knot
Oct 11 2007 10:12 AM

[url=http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/my-2007-mvps/]This statistics-based approach[/url] not only gives Wright the MVP but also gives him high marks for defense.

TransMonk
Oct 11 2007 10:22 AM

If nothing else that article reiterates how remarkably consistent Wright's offense has been during his career to this point.

I love the fact that it's not a stretch to expect Wright to put up similar numbers year after year.

Edgy DC
Oct 11 2007 10:27 AM

I love the paucity of outs, particularly in the second half. Relatedly, I love the fact that he doesn't have to hit 50 homers to be this productive.

Vic Sage
Oct 11 2007 10:30 AM

Wright is the Mets' "Mr. Right" and they should marry him.

The only other franchise player the Mets had was Seaver, a pitcher who got traded while still in his prime. But I can definitely see this kid playing his whole career here and being the best player in the team's history.

Rockin' Doc
Oct 11 2007 11:15 AM

TransMonk - "Only if they give GGs to everyone in the league."

Wright's glove was pretty golden, it was his arm that often let him down.


Vic Sage - " Wright is the Mets' "Mr. Right" and they should marry him.

The only other franchise player the Mets had was Seaver, a pitcher who got traded while still in his prime. But I can definitely see this kid playing his whole career here and being the best player in the team's history."


I share your vision and hope that it does come to fruition.

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 11 2007 11:34 AM

But that would mean that Mike Francesa was wrong!