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The Decline and Fall of Jose Reyes

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2007 12:26 PM

OK, so the subject heading might be a bit dramatic. Still, age 24 is an odd time to go into a near year-long decline, particularly when it's the power numbers that are taking the biggest hit. ---- BA OBA SLG Walk IsoP 2006 .300 .354 .487 .054 .187 2007 .288 .361 .425 .073 .137 Since May 1 .274 .374 .391 .070 .117 Since Aug 1 .251 .320 .358 .069 .107 Since Sept 1 .210 .279 .290 .070 .081 To put those power number in a bit of context; - that .187 from last year is about what Eric Byrnes & Russell Martin are doing now - this year's power puts him in Freddie Sanchez & Edgar Renteria territory - and there's only a handful of full-time NL players who have an isolated slugging lower than the .100-.120 level he's been at since April Then throw in the fact that his speed, in effect, inflates his slugging numbers by turning what would be singles for most players into doubles or doubles into triples and he's really barely slugging at all ... but you probably already knew that.

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 12:36 PM

The reports of Jose Reyes' death are greatly exaggerated.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 12:46 PM

No they ain 't. He's killing this team.

metirish Sep 19 2007 12:49 PM

] OK, so the subject heading might be a bit dramatic. Not really.... Now that Castillo is hitting in front of him things will improve.....mmmmmmmm...no idea what's going on with him though,maybe starting to believe the hype that surrounds him,lackadaisical play from Jose this season.

Edgy DC Sep 19 2007 12:50 PM

Thing is, nobody's getting this memo. MVP speculation articles are still speculating about Reyes taking votes away from Wright. That would be... felonious.

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 01:02 PM

Got it. All the best players on this team suck and should be dumped on the ash-heap. We should be rallying around Reyes, Beltran, & Delgado like Brooklyn Dodgers fans did for Gil Hodges. You people don't deserve the Mets.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2007 01:08 PM

You're really committed to this sunny disposition shtick, aren't you?

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 01:09 PM

bluh. Pretending their problems don't exist ain't the same as rallying around them, and acknowledging their suck ain't akin to throwing anyone of the ash heap.

metirish Sep 19 2007 01:13 PM

Willets weren't you the pessimistic one when the team was killing it and now you're the optimistic one when they suck,I have noticed this for the past few weeks.

sharpie Sep 19 2007 01:25 PM

Willets is in bizarro mode.

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 01:34 PM

I think I'm generally optimistic although sometimes I say negative things in the heat of the moment (or when I'm taking the piss). Anyone who's been watching me post here for the past 7 years probably would recognize me as being in the rah-rah camp. I think the only thing I've been truly negative about is Glavine, and I've eased off on him this season (based on input from you folks). I also have never been one for scapegoating, making generalizations about a player's character based on their poor play, or booing your own players. I've seen a lot of that here and among Mets fans in general lately and I just don't think its fair. I think the Mets are going to clinch the NL East in the next week or two. I think they will go deep into the postseason and have a good chance at winning the World Series. I think if they do that Beltran, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran (all players who've been boo'ed, goated, and character assassinated this season) will be key to the victory. I think there's a lot of weaknesses this team needs to address in all categories, but I don't think turning against our core players is a good way of addressing that.

metirish Sep 19 2007 01:39 PM

] I think the only thing I've been truly negative about is Glavine, and I've eased off on him this season. Yeah point taken.....

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 01:44 PM

Really? Not that booing your guys is ever right, but I think the players have gotten off pretty easy this year to be honest, and Reyes in particular. The fans are dying for him to be successful. They hate to boo him. They love him so much they can't even see how much he struggled, which is the point of the post. I just took the piss myself but that's becaise I drank 1.5 liter bottle of water this afternoon.

metirish Sep 19 2007 01:46 PM

I always figured you for a pisser Johnny.

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 01:48 PM

As for Reyes: 32 DB's = career high 78 SB's = career high (not to mention MLB leader and Met single season record) 72 BB's = career high (obliterating last years 53 walks. Remember when we criticized Reyes for not walking enough?) .361 OBP = career high (a lead off hitter who gets on base this often is really killing our team?) 13 IBB = career high (apparently opposing pitchers have not gotten the memo about Reyes' suckage) Triples are down from last year but Reyes is still second in the NL. Also his runs, hits and strikeout totals are on about the same pace as last year. I don't really see the big concern about the power number drop. Beltran, Delgado, and Wright are the power for this offense, and if they're not doing their job I don't think its Reyes job to compensate.

Kid Carsey Sep 19 2007 01:53 PM

WP: >>>I think the Mets are going to clinch the NL East in the next week or two<<< Let's hope they don't wait two. I think they'll end up winning too, but complaining about the complaining seems like shouting at the wind to me. They're in the midst of a full fledge march to a historic demise ... a little fan hysteria is warranted imo.

Edgy DC Sep 19 2007 01:58 PM

I think it's that .320 since August 1 and that .279 since September 1 that are murder.

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 01:59 PM

I'm more bothered by the attacks on individual players (especially when people say it reflects on their character as humans). I think the last five games have been team losses, wouldn't you agree?

metirish Sep 19 2007 02:03 PM

Willets Point wrote: I'm more bothered by the attacks on individual players (especially when people say it reflects on their character as humans). I think the last five games have been team losses, wouldn't you agree? Definitely team losses ,plenty of players not playing as might be expected,Willets what are the personal attacks you are talking about?

Kid Carsey Sep 19 2007 02:04 PM

Yeah, and I'm just sayin'. Our optimistic sim-score is generally on the high side for baseball fans historically.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2007 02:16 PM

Willets Point wrote: I'm more bothered by the attacks on individual players (especially when people say it reflects on their character as humans). I think the last five games have been team losses, wouldn't you agree? Most of them have been team losses. Last night's, though, falls squarely on Maine's shoulders. The Mets scored 8 runs, and overall played fairly well. Even the bullpen did well, one run over four-plus innings.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 02:16 PM

]32 DB's = career high --yay ]78 SB's = career high (not to mention MLB leader and Met single season record) --hooray ] 72 BB's = career high (obliterating last years 53 walks. Remember when we criticized Reyes for not walking enough?) --Down more than 40% since the ASB (47/25) ].361 OBP = career high (a lead off hitter who gets on base this often is really killing our team?) --He's not getting on at 361, he's averaged getting on @ 361. Since the ASB he's gotten on at 321. That's bad. In September, 279. That's deadly.

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2007 02:25 PM

As noted, the point of the post wasn't to tear down Reyes or to assign him the lion's share of "blame" for the recent problems (he wasn't hitting while they were winning 10 of 12 either). But (also as noted) there has been a disconnect between Jose's image and reality for a while now - something the extrordinary April he had has been covering up. Now this isn't to suggest that this is the start of a years-long and irreversible downward trend, but it does throw some cold water on the idea that these trends were all but assured to point ever upwards for young players. And, yeah, the power outage does matter; it's a big part of what seperates him from the standard slick fielding/slashing type hitter mold. Since August 1st he's essentially a handful of XBHs (speed?) above what we had when some guy named Ordonez was manning his position. {Ordonez '99 = .258 / .319 / .317 / .061 / .059}

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 02:31 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 19 2007 02:37 PM

So the better word for this is "slump." Not "catastrophic career collapse."

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2007 02:34 PM

Definitely. Wright rebounded from his awful April. Reyes will rebound from this. When did this slump start? Does it coincide in any way with the Rick Down/Howard Johnson/Rickey Henderson shakeup?

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 02:36 PM

whistle whistle whistle

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2007 02:38 PM

Well no one ever suggested catastrophic career collapse. I even acknowledged in the opening sentence that the subject heading was overdone for dramatic effect (I hate boring subject headings) and, no, I don't think Jose's season is akin to the last days of the Roman Empire. But 3/4 of a season is a bit more than a slump and is enough to start wondering if last year was the outlier rather than an upward step on a lengthy ladder.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 02:50 PM

Perhaps if we close our eyes and wish real hard, it will go away!

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 03:07 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote: Really? Not that booing your guys is ever right, but I think the players have gotten off pretty easy this year to be honest, and Reyes in particular. The fans are dying for him to be successful. They hate to boo him. They love him so much they can't even see how much he struggled, which is the point of the post. Here's a sampling of commentary on that either attacks Reyes character ("head up the ass" is the favorite way to blame Jose for his slump) and/or blames him for the Mets failures, just from the first two pages. I could find similar for other players: Sept. 16 Frayed Knot “Another game like these past two and I'm going to wake up tomorrow morning and get myself a gun.” Sept. 16 Johnny Dickshot “His head is so far up his ass I can't see it coming out in time. We're screwed IOW.” Sept. 16 MFS62 “Maybe that explains it. His head is up his ass, so his eyes are blocked and he can't see anything.” Sept. 16 Johnny Dickshot “You kinda always knew he wasn't going to be a smiling energy machine his whole life. I mean, Kirby Puckett maintained that illusion deep into his career before it came out he was a complete creep all along.” Sept. 17 Johnny Dickshot “I think they should send Reyes to Alaska and use that guy at short.” Sept. 19 Mendoza Line “Hell, I don't want to think about that. If Reyes can somehow get his head out from up his rear and we can avoid Jorge Motaweis for a few days, this will all be forgotten in two weeks.” Sept. 19 Johnny Dickshot “No they ain 't. He's killing this team.”

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 03:31 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: But 3/4 of a season is a bit more than a slump and is enough to start wondering if last year was the outlier rather than an upward step on a lengthy ladder. Edgy already addressed that. ="Edgy DC"]I think it's that .320 since August 1 and that .279 since September 1 that are murder. So it's six weeks not 3/4's of a season.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 03:34 PM

Wow, reading those comments you'd almost be convinced he's been playing poorly or something. Or maybe they're taken out of context? How, for example, is a piss-poor decision to steal 3rd base the other night (the event that inspired many of the comments) evidence of a "slump"? What, did his brain go into a slump?

Vic Sage Sep 19 2007 04:08 PM

]You people don't deserve the Mets Thank you, WP. And i agree... i don't know WHAT anyone here could have done to deserve the Mets. Maybe I was part of a dog-fighting ring in my prior life.

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2007 05:01 PM

And just for the record, my comment about getting a gun was; a) not directed at Reyes in particular but at the team in general - even though Reyes was mentioned in the subject heading and b) mostly an attempt (a lame one apparently) to play off the subject heading by following: woke up this morning with got myself a gun

Willets Point Sep 19 2007 08:55 PM

Sorry Frayed, in the context I thought were suggesting shooting Reyes. I don't get the reference about waking up in the morning and getting myself a gun so I took you literally.

Johnny Dickshot Sep 19 2007 09:10 PM

And just for the record, I didn't mean to suggest Reyes literally had shoved his head up his own ass. He's a great athlete and all, but I don't think he can do that.

Frayed Knot Sep 19 2007 09:20 PM

You woke up this morning. Got yourself a gun. Mama always said you'd be the Chosen One. She said: You're one in a million you've got to burn to shine, But you were born under a bad sign, with a blue moon in your eyes. You woke up this morning all the love has gone, Your Papa never told you about right and wrong. But you're looking good, baby, I believe you're feeling fine, (shame about it), Born under a bad sign with a blue moon in your eyes. You woke up this morning the world turned upside down, Thing's ain't been the same since the Blues walked into town. But you're one in a million you've got that shotgun shine. Born under a bad sign, with a blue moon in your eyes. When you woke up this morning, when you woke up this morning, When you woke up this morning, you got yourself a gun. Was the theme to 'The Sopranos' although not written specifically for the show.

Zvon Sep 19 2007 09:25 PM

Well, i think we all have to agree on one thing here. If the Mets fold the talking heads will be pointing to Reyes and saying "See! When [u:30ac0df5e8]he[/u:30ac0df5e8] don't go the Mets don't go," and thats a lot of wieght on a 24 yr old kids shoulders. Case in point: Tonight. 2 hits, 2 runs scored.

duan Sep 20 2007 10:33 AM thing is

jose reyes = very good player jose reyes 2006 eqa .288 : jose reyes 2007 eqa .285 jose reyes not the mets biggest problem by any means jose reyes is not equal first coming of the messiah

G-Fafif Sep 20 2007 11:40 AM

I hate to predict turning points because of the presumptuousness and futility of it, but something about that ball Jose stuck right there in the padding last night...he scored on it, next time up he singled and scored, next time up he moved Green over (maybe not his intention, but it buit a run), plus the perfect positioning for the double play on Logan...I think we'll look back on Wily Mo Pena's search as the night Jose Reyes found himself. (Or as just a ground rule double that otherwise would have been a triple.)

Frayed Knot Sep 20 2007 11:49 AM Re: thing is

duan: jose reyes = very good player FK: Yes he is, particularly at his age/position duan: jose reyes 2006 eqa .288 : jose reyes 2007 eqa .285 FK: Yeah, but much of the purpose in starting this thread was to point out how his outrageous April skews the overall to a large degree duan: jose reyes not the mets biggest problem by any means FK: Overall no, but over the last few weeks he's at least in the class picture duan: jose reyes is not equal first coming of the messiah FK: Or even the second. Just a bit discouraging to see a step back at this point.

m.e.t.b.o.t. Sep 20 2007 12:07 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. has been tracking individual player win percentages added throughout the season for the mets. new york met shortstop jose reyes was once the player who contributed the most to met wins, for ten games in april. reyes contributed positively in may, and also in august. jose reyes contributed negatively in june, july, and september. the contribution of jose reyes to wins and losses by month is as follows: april 0.768 may 0.435 june -0.253 july -0.207 aug 0.600 sept -0.299

metirish Sep 20 2007 01:08 PM

="Johnny Dickshot"]And just for the record, I didn't mean to suggest Reyes literally had shoved his head up his own ass. He's a great athlete and all, but I don't think he can do that. You'd be wrong.... [/list]

duan Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM

fwiw's bp's numbers have him being way better defensively this season, he's also stolen MORE bases (11 so far) and got caught at a lower rate . don't think he's really taken a step backward more treaded some water with the bat as he refines his approach and lets not forget what a leap he took forward last season.

Edgy DC Sep 23 2007 09:34 PM

He has taken a leap forward defensively. And that's great. And it's no surprise that his game is going to move in fits and starts. But while Tim McCarver was calling him one of the most exciting players in the last 50 years a few weeks ago, he was in the midst of a months-long slide that has him on the way to having the fourth-best season of a shortstop in the five-team division.