One for the Ages

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One for the Ages

Edgy DC
Sep 22 2007 10:32 PM
Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Sep 22 2007 10:54 PM

Remarkable about David Wright's season is not only his productivity, but continuing to produce in the face of Willie Randolph's workload, a challenge that can speculatively blamed in part for Jose Reyes' second-half slump. He's played 97.59% of the Mets innings at third this season, while Reyes has heroically clocked 98.54% of the shorty innings.

Wright is now on his way to one of the most productive batting seasons in Met history, as measured by my favorited quick metric (OPS+ - 60) * PA.

I'm not measuring defensive contribution here nor baserunning contribution, but likely these two would be a net plus with Wright, despite his annoying ninth-inning yips. He's currently sneaking up on the great outlier, Bernard Gilkey's 1996.

He'd nonetheless have to go quite nuts to join his batting coach as the only Mets every to rack up 70,000 EBM points.

Go, Davey, go.

Rank Player Season OPS+ PA EBM
1 Howard Johnson 1989 169 655 71,395
2 John Olerud 1998 163 665 68,495
3 Darryl Strawberry 1988 165 640 67,200
4 Darryl Strawberry 1987 162 640 65,280
Proj. David Wright 2007 152 706 64,974
5 Bernard Gilkey 1996 157 656 63,632
6 David Wright 2007 152 667 61,364
7 Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 150 650 58,500
8 Carlos Beltran 2006 153 617 57,381
9 Howard Johnson 1991 145 658 55,930
10 Keith Hernandez 1984 143 657 54,531
11 Mike Piazza 2000 159 545 53,955
12 Keith Hernandez 1986 141 652 52,812
13 Lee Mazzilli 1979 135 693 51,975
14 Todd Hundley 1996 143 624 51,792
15 Mike Piazza 2001 150 573 51,570
16 John Olerud 1999 131 723 51,333
17 David Wright 2005 138 657 51,246
18 Cleon Jones 1969 151 558 50,778
19 David Wright 2006 136 661 50,236
20 Gary Carter 1985 139 633 50,007

metirish
Sep 22 2007 10:43 PM

I have no idea what EBM points are,not even an educated guess,did I totally miss something?

Edgy DC
Sep 22 2007 10:52 PM

As stated, (OPS+ - 60) * PA.

Edgy Batting Metric.

You can prove anything as long as you make up your own stat.

Nymr83
Sep 22 2007 11:29 PM

why -60? why not -80? (which is what i've been told "replacement level" is)
otherwise the concept is a good one

Edgy DC
Sep 23 2007 06:14 AM

I've understood 60. If 80, EBM is a lie.

Edgy DC
Sep 23 2007 01:18 PM

How does that translate into MVP voting? Sporadically.

Rank Player Season OPS+ PA EBM MVP Rank MVP Share
1 Howard Johnson 1989 169 655 71,395 5 0.46
2 John Olerud 1998 163 665 68,495 12 0.08
3 Darryl Strawberry 1988 165 640 67,200 2 0.70
4 Darryl Strawberry 1987 162 640 65,280 6 0.28
Proj. David Wright 2007 152 706 64,974 -- --
5 Bernard Gilkey 1996 157 656 63,632 14 0.03
6 David Wright 2007 152 667 61,364 -- --
7 Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 150 650 58,500 15 0.01
8 Carlos Beltran 2006 153 617 57,381 4 0.47
9 Howard Johnson 1991 145 658 55,930 5 0.33
10 Keith Hernandez 1984 143 657 54,531 2 0.58
11 Mike Piazza 2000 159 545 53,955 3 0.60
12 Keith Hernandez 1986 141 652 52,812 4 0.53
13 Lee Mazzilli 1979 135 693 51,975 -- --
14 Todd Hundley 1996 143 624 51,792 18 0.02
15 Mike Piazza 2001 150 573 51,570 13 0.03
16 John Olerud 1999 131 723 51,333 -- --
17 David Wright 2005 138 657 51,246 19 0.04
18 Cleon Jones 1969 151 558 50,778 7 0.24
19 David Wright 2006 136 661 50,236 9 0.16
20 Gary Carter 1985 139 633 50,007 6 0.35

Mendoza Line
Sep 23 2007 04:03 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
I've understood 60. If 80, EBM is a lie.

Yeah, but not of the evil, pernicious type. The difference in rank isn't great (not posting the table so as to save some space here). All else equal, using 80 gives less weight to PA and more to OPS+, so it generally helps the catchers a bit.

I checked quickly and didn't see any other seasons that would get into the top 20 if OPS+ - 80 replaces OPS+ - 60.

metsmarathon
Sep 23 2007 04:51 PM

if an OPS+ of 80 is replacement level, then paul loduca is just barely above replacement, and jose valentin just barely below (82 and 78 OPS+ respectively, as of today's bbref stats).

if an OPS+ of 60 is replacement level, then julio franco is replacement (OPS+ of 59).

the latter feels more right.

oe: a quick crosscheck between baseball prospectus (for which this season it appears as if a 0.230 EQA is replacement level) and baseballreference, and it looks like about a 67 (up to maybe 71) OPS+ is replacement level this year.

so stephen drew, marcus giles, and brad ausmus, to name a few, are your example replacements.

Edgy DC
Sep 23 2007 05:55 PM

I'm going with 60. That's what you find on the waiver wire.

Edgy DC
Sep 23 2007 07:45 PM

Babe Ruth, for comparison, had nine seasons over 100,000, despite this being a cumulative statistic, and him playing a shorter season.

He had three over 120,000!

In 1918, he played in 95 games for Boston, still pitching in 20, 19 as a starter, and spending part-time duty as an outfielder and firstbaseman. By this metric, those 95 games would be better than all but 17 seasons had by any Mets player.

Elster88
Sep 23 2007 10:28 PM
Re: One for the Ages

Edgy DC wrote:
... Willie Randolph's workload, a challenge that can speculatively blamed in part for Jose Reyes' second-half slump...

I thought I was the only one.

TheOldMole
Sep 24 2007 09:58 AM

For those of us hopelessly mired in the mid-20th Century...

I actually do know what OPS is. And I can figure out the last part as divided by Plate Appearances. But what is plus or minus 60? Or 80?

TheOldMole
Sep 24 2007 09:59 AM

Scratch that. Multiplied by Plate Appearances.

Edgy DC
Sep 24 2007 10:09 AM

OPS+ is a players OPS over the league average OPS (or in the NL, the league average not including pitchers), multiplied by 100. An OPS of 150 is 50% higher than the league average.

Sixty is subtracted because an OPS+ of 60 can be said (there's some disagreement in this thread) to be typical of a replacement player, the level of player you can grab off the waiver wire.

Edgy DC
Sep 24 2007 12:49 PM

Through 155 games, he inches closer.

The protracted division race doesn't allow him to get the rest he needs, but it does allow him to garner more EBM points.

He's now projecting toward the third best EBM season ever.

Rank Player Season OPS+ PA EBM
1 Howard Johnson 1989 169 655 71,395
2 John Olerud 1998 163 665 68,495
3 Darryl Strawberry 1988 165 640 67,200
Proj. David Wright 2007 153 709 65,937
4 Darryl Strawberry 1987 162 640 65,280
5 Bernard Gilkey 1996 157 656 63,632
6 David Wright 2007 153 678 63,054
7 Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 150 650 58,500
8 Carlos Beltran 2006 153 617 57,381
9 Howard Johnson 1991 145 658 55,930
10 Keith Hernandez 1984 143 657 54,531
11 Mike Piazza 2000 159 545 53,955
12 Keith Hernandez 1986 141 652 52,812
13 Lee Mazzilli 1979 135 693 51,975
14 Todd Hundley 1996 143 624 51,792
15 Mike Piazza 2001 150 573 51,570
16 John Olerud 1999 131 723 51,333
17 David Wright 2005 138 657 51,246
18 Cleon Jones 1969 151 558 50,778
19 David Wright 2006 136 661 50,236
20 Gary Carter 1985 139 633 50,007

Edgy DC
Oct 12 2007 01:01 PM

How awesome was HoJo '89 that he remained so unapproached by his MVP-chasing protege?

Rank Player Season OPS+ PA EBM
1 Howard Johnson 1989 169 655 71,395
2 John Olerud 1998 163 665 68,495
3 Darryl Strawberry 1988 165 640 67,200
4 David Wright 2007 152 711 65,412
5 Darryl Strawberry 1987 162 640 65,280
6 Bernard Gilkey 1996 157 656 63,632
7 Edgardo Alfonzo 2000 150 650 58,500
8 Carlos Beltran 2006 153 617 57,381
9 Howard Johnson 1991 145 658 55,930
10 Keith Hernandez 1984 143 657 54,531
11 Mike Piazza 2000 159 545 53,955
12 Keith Hernandez 1986 141 652 52,812
13 Lee Mazzilli 1979 135 693 51,975
14 Todd Hundley 1996 143 624 51,792
15 Mike Piazza 2001 150 573 51,570
16 John Olerud 1999 131 723 51,333
17 David Wright 2005 138 657 51,246
18 Cleon Jones 1969 151 558 50,778
19 David Wright 2006 136 661 50,236
20 Gary Carter 1985 139 633 50,007