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What and Why?

Edgy DC
Oct 01 2007 01:21 PM

Theory One: We had some good arms but it didn't have legs. Watch it fade.


MonthERA
April2.96
May3.69
June4.20
July4.50
August4.93
September5.11


Best relief pitcher in September was easily Aaron "I hate his ass face, Dog" Heilman: 17 games, 17.2 innings, 2.03 ERA, no homers.

Farmer Ted
Oct 01 2007 01:41 PM

When did Joe Smith get tired and sent to NO?

metirish
Oct 01 2007 01:45 PM

I'd say we have an old pitching staff but probably not any older than other teams, Joe Smith was used a hell of a lot early doors, and in big spots too.I'm hoping he will benefit from this next season.

Valadius
Oct 01 2007 01:48 PM

Jose Reyes forgot how to steal bases. Hell, he forgot how to play baseball.

This season, we were 39-24 in games where Jose Reyes stole a base. He only stole 5 in September. That said something to me.

soupcan
Oct 01 2007 01:59 PM

The Offense Was Not The Problem.


Hello Rick Peterson? Beat it.

Edgy DC
Oct 01 2007 02:02 PM

Jose Reyes not stealing bases was definitely not the problem.

Johnny Dickshot
Oct 01 2007 02:02 PM

Valadius wrote:
Jose Reyes forgot how to steal bases. Hell, he forgot how to play baseball.

This season, we were 39-24 in games where Jose Reyes stole a base. He only stole 5 in September. That said something to me.


What it should have said to you is, "Hey, Stupid! It's not about stealing bases, it's about being in a position to steal bases, that's most important. Reyes not stealing indicated he wasn't on base enough."

Rotblatt
Oct 01 2007 03:56 PM
Re: What and Why?

="Edgy DC"]Theory One: We had some good arms but it didn't have legs.


I think that about sums it up.

To get specific:

Pitching Goats by month
I'm arbitrarily deciding that below a 5.40 ERA means you're not quite a goat, guessing that it's right around replacement level.

April
Pelfrey (3 GS, 13.7 IP, 7.90 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 6 K, 7 BB)

Plus one bad spot start by Park (4 IP, 7 ER, 2.00 WHIP, 4 K, 2 BB)

3.5 RA/G (season best)
5.5 RS/G
Pyth. Record 17-7
Actual Record 15-9

May
Schoenweis (10 G, 10 IP, 9.90 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 4 K, 9 BB)
Pelfrey (3 GS, 16.7 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7 K, 10 BB)

Plus one curious start from Vargas, where he gave us innings without allowing many baserunners, but still giving up runs (7 IP, 6.43 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 2 K, 0 BB).

4 RA/G
4.5 RS/G
Pyth. Record 16-12
Actual Record 19-9

June
Smith (10 G, 7.3 IP, 7.36 ERA, 2.86 WHIP, 6 K, 7 BB)
Mota (12 G, 14 IP, 6.43 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 11 K, 5 BB)
Sele (4 G, 6 IP, 6.00 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 2 K, 2 BB)
Glavine (5 GS, 29.3 IP, 5.83 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12 K, 10 BB)

4.4 RA/G
3.9 RS/G (season worst)
Pyth. Record 12-15
Actual Record 12-15

July
Feliciano (13 G, 9.3 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8 K, 6 BB)
Sosa (4 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 6.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 9 K, 8 BB)
Schoenweis (10 G, 10 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 11 K, 4 BB)

Plus terrible spot starts by Dave Williams (3.3 IP, 8 ER, 4.20 WHIP) and Vargas (3.3 IP, 9 ER, 3.90 WHIP)

4.9 RA/G
4.4 RS/G
Pyth. Record 12-15
Actual Record 13-14

August
Mota (12 G, 13.7 IP, 8.56 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 11 K, 5 BB)
Sele (7 G, 10 IP, 8.10 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 5 K, 2 BB)
Maine (6 GS, 31.3 IP, 6.32 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 31 K, 17 BB)
Lawrence (5 GS, 25.7 IP, 6.31 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 15 K, 12 BB)
Wagner (13 G, 13 IP, 6.23 ERA, 2.23 WHIP, 15 K, 8 BB)

4.9 RA/G
5.9 RS/G (season best)
Pyth. Record 17-11
Actual Record 15-13

September
Maine (5 GS, 27.3 IP, 5.93 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 36 K, 12 BB)
Glavine (6 GS, 31 IP, 6.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 13 K, 9 BB)
Smith (8 G, 5.7 IP, 6.35 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 9 K, 2 BB)
Collazo (6 G, 5.7 IP, 6.35 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, 0 K, 5 BB)
Sosa (12 G, 12.3 IP, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 11 K, 5 BB)
Sele (5 G, 6 IP, 7.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, 1 BB)

Plus bad spot starts by Humber (4 IP, 5 ER, 2.00 WHIP, 0 K, 2 BB), Lawrence (3.3 IP, 4 ER, 2.12 WHIP, 3 K, 1 BB), and El Duque (3 IP, 8 ER, 3.33 WHIP, 2 K, 4 BB)

5.7 RA/G (season worst)
5.6 RS/G
Pyth. Record 14-14
Actual Record 14-14

Rotblatt
Oct 01 2007 04:51 PM

Some thoughts in looking at the above:

Sele consistently sucked for over half the year, and IIRC, he didn't manage much better than my 5.40 ERA cutoff in April or May either (he was good in July). Once might argue that he wasn't used in high-leverage innings, and I agree, but I can't help but think that we might have been able to eke out one more win by using someone at or slightly above replacement level instead of him. BP, however, disagrees with me, contending that Sele was 0.627 wins better than replacement--which ranks third overall among our relievers, right above Aaron Heilman. The mind boggles.

Mota was used in higher leverage innings (0.91 LEV, according to BP--below Schoenweis at 1.09 and above Sele at 0.72), and was shitty in 2 of the four months we had him, and not much better in July (4.96 ERA). He's the only Met reliever with significant innings pitched who, according to BP, was below replacement level, costing us 0.438 wins.

Smith was brilliant enough in the beginning of the year--and we yanked him early enough--that I can't find much fault in his use, aside from potentially overworking him early.

Our spot starting was atrociously bad this year. If we had someone who could manage replacement level starting pitching in those 7 terrible spot starts, you'd have to think we could have won at least one of those games.

BP agrees, singling out Dave Williams as the single biggest drag to our pitching staff, at -8.2 VORP. Vargas (-7.0), Park (-4.6), Lawrence (-3.2) and Humber (-1.5) round out the bottom five for our staff.

Anyway, one takeaway for me is that raising the bottom floor of our pitching staff could net us a win or two, and should be a fairly low-hanging fruit for us. Scary as it sounds, we actually made strides in that direction from last year to this--mostly by virtue of not using Lima at all.

Another is that getting Mota back on the juice should also be a priority--I would suggest HGH this time, as it's undetectable.

Maine's struggles really hurt us, but I don't see an easy way around that. We just need to keep working with him to gain consistency, and maybe Willie needs to rest him more down the stretch. Having a reliable spot starter on our staff would probably make that easier to do.

I really don't think we need a complete overhaul of our bullpen. Wagner, Heilman & Feliciano were solid, and Sosa & Smith should be decent middle relievers. Mota's iffy, but if we keep him on a short leash, he might prove valuable. Ditto with Schoenweis. Really, I'd say we should sign a couple potential Darren Oliver's this off-season, and stick them in AAA. Sign one solid, veteran middle reliever to bolster the pen, then hope Sanchez can provide more of the same.

Doing everything we can to get live-arm "add-ons" like Ollie in any deals we make this offseason would obviously help too.

The rotation's a whole other story . . .

smg58
Oct 01 2007 06:41 PM

We need a good #2 guy in the pen. Heilman and Feliciano are useful pitchers, but in less important roles than they had. Smith should move forward. Filling the rest of the pen with guys who can't do better than a 5 ERA killed us. That absolutely has to be avoided next year.

Edgy DC
Oct 03 2007 11:43 AM

Theory Two --- well, Theory Three, I guess (Two being that Jose Reyes forgot how to steal bases) --- comes from Richard Cohen's Washington Post editorial page column, waiting for me on my seat as I boarded the Acela yesterday. He, interestingly enough, blames Ben Grimm.



Thing 1, Mets 0

By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, October 2, 2007; Page A19


In August of 1951, my father took me to see a doubleheader between the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants. We didn't stay for the bottom half of that twin bill because the Dodgers won the first game, extending their insurmountable lead (eventually to 13 1/2 games) and ending the season, as far as my father was concerned, right there and then. So we beat the traffic and drove back to Queens, arriving home about the same time of day when, the next month, Bobby Thomson powered a Ralph Branca pitch into the Polo Grounds bleachers, securing the pennant for the Giants and teaching me, at a very young age, everything about life I ever needed to know.

Now it is the New York Mets who have taught some of those same lessons. This hapless heir to the bad-luck Dodgers had a lead of seven games over the Philadelphia Phillies on Sept. 12. Then the Mets, who had been in first place since May, went into a tailspin, a total collapse . . . a something. Slippery banana peels were strewn all over the playing field and the players lost their keen eye and pitches slowed by a mysterious 10 miles an hour and arrived at the plate as big as beach balls. The Thing had taken over and Philadelphia won the pennant.

As an old Dodgers fan, I was familiar with The Thing. I knew it could not be explained. I knew it was cruel and that it teased the innocent -- the Mets got 13 runs in their penultimate game -- but in the end it could not be managed or beaten or even explained. What was happening to the Mets was called life, and it was good that kids were watching. They could learn from it. Victory teaches nothing. Defeat teaches everything.

I am no longer a fan of any team in any sport. The fan is a fool, a sucker, as much a mark as a drunk who flashes cash in a bar. The fan loves the team, but the team does not love him. The team merely loves the fan's money and when the time comes, it will roll up trucks to the ballpark and take off for another city in the middle of the night. A coldhearted lover will sometimes leave a note. A team never will.

This is what the Dodgers taught me. Do not fall in love with a ball team. It's a corporation. It will not love you back and, even though your wall is plastered with the pictures of players -- Hodges, Reese, Campanella, Snider, Furillo and the great Jackie -- the team will abscond to some faraway place. I vowed I'd never love again.

But the lesson taught my heart was nothing compared with the one taught my head. The collapse of the 1951 Dodgers was a metaphor for all that can happen in life. Had Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney and the rest been Dodgers fans they never would have counted on things going right in Iraq. They would have known that The Thing could happen. They would have known you could look at the plans, the way Charlie Dressen looked at his roster, and never see defeat staring you in the face. Defeat is like a two-way mirror. You cannot see it but it can see you. "The Giants is dead," Dressen famously, erroneously and ungrammatically had remarked. It was the "mission accomplished" of its time.

The Dodgers taught me about such things -- which is why I sat back with the smug wisdom of age and watched the TV guys try to explain what was happening to the Mets, combing through the stats like prospectors panning for gold. They tried to blame the coach or the players. It was about talent or motivation or some such thing. They needed to blame someone. They needed to make sense out of the nonsensical.

So, children, pay attention. The 1951 Dodgers had four future Hall of Famers and they lost. They were managed by the peerless Dressen and they lost. They had the support of the most rabid fans in all of history and they lost. I sat before the TV, mouth agape, and watched that Thomson home run and then, some years later, watched again as the Dodgers themselves fled Brooklyn, leaving me heartbroken but wiser. Now I know, as sure as I know anything, that the Mets lost not for any reason sportscasters will find in the statistics but because when the Dodgers left for the coast, something fell out of the back of the truck and, in time, made its way over to Queens where the Mets play.

The Thing was back.

cohenr@washpost.com