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Jose Reyes Mind Games

MFS62 Oct 10 2007 06:25 AM

There have been several comments by the media as well as posters on various boards speculating on what was wrong with Jose Reyes during the second half of the season. There have been comments like "he seems distracted" and "he is having trouble focusing" and wondering if he is having problems off the field. I have a theory. I believe the touble that began his decline occurred on August 7. And it all boils down to ....... money. On August 3, Jose had signed a 4 year contract extension for $23.25 million. But on August 7, David Wright signed one for 6 years, $55 million. I think Jose's pride at his contract turned to jealousy. And I believe that explains the funk he's been in ever since. Hey, its as good a theory as any. Later

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 10 2007 06:35 AM

No it isn't.

metsmarathon Oct 10 2007 06:45 AM

did the decline start on august 7th? before? or after? this is something that one could readily check, no?

metirish Oct 10 2007 06:50 AM

Those contracts were signed August 2006, I don't buy it.

MFS62 Oct 10 2007 06:58 AM

OK, then what other theories do y'all have? Later

Edgy DC Oct 10 2007 07:06 AM

metirish wrote: Those contracts were signed August 2006, I don't buy it. Never mind.

soupcan Oct 10 2007 07:20 AM

MFS62 wrote: OK, then what other theories do y'all have? Later How about he's a young player, still learning, tried to do too much, lost his focus, got tired, ate too many jelly beans, ran out of clean underwear....

Frayed Knot Oct 10 2007 07:29 AM

MFS62 wrote: OK, then what other theories do y'all have? Rule 1: Hitters go in streaks Rule 2: Refer often to Rule 1

Benjamin Grimm Oct 10 2007 07:36 AM

I can't give much weight to a theory that says his funk occurred because it was the 12-month anniversary of his signing a contract.

Vic Sage Oct 10 2007 01:35 PM

Reyes didn't go into a "funk". He didn't "slump". There was nothing going on of particular statistical significance with his "mindset". Reyes's production simply returned to the mean after a hot start. Reyes got off to an unbelievable April, but then dropped off preciptiously in May before levelling off in June, and then steadily declined from July through the end of the season. Here's the breakdown, roughly drawn by month: April 1- April 30: OPS climbs to 1.038 (his season peak) May 1 - May 30: OPS drops 185 pts to .853 May 31 - June 30: OPS holds steady to .851 (peak of .867 on 6/24) July 1 - July 28: OPS drops 32 points to .819 July 29 - Aug 30: OPS drops 15 points to .802 Aug 31 - Sept 30: OPS drops 27 points to .775 i think the notion that something "happened" is a myth not borne out by the numbers. It seems to me he played out of his mind for 6-7 weeks, then cooled off, leveled off, and then dropped off steadily in the second half to return to his career numbers, as his lack of plate discipline once again reared its ugly head.

Edgy DC Oct 10 2007 01:41 PM

I'll agree with a lot there, but It wasn't his plate discipline that was the issue as the year progressed, so much as his lack of hard contact. I'd bet his batting average and slugging percentage tailed off more than his walk rate.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Oct 10 2007 01:47 PM

He stopped driving the ball is what happened.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 10 2007 01:53 PM

He became a pop up machine.

Frayed Knot Oct 10 2007 02:29 PM

I think I posted a table something like this one a few weeks back. His walk rate was somewhat worse in the 2nd half compared to the 1st although for the most part hovered somewhere just above or below average. But it was the power outage that really marked his decline. Aside from April & July those power numbers are considerably below league averages. Month BA Wk Rate IsoP April .356 .086 .240 May .268 .081 .080 June .330 .078 .094 July .265 .053 .188 August .272 .069 .120 Sept .205 .068 .128 And again, this notion that there needs to be some sort of specific cut-off date from which the whole "turn-around" can be traced is largely fan myth -- they usually are. Look at ARod during this sure-to-be MVP season: April (BA/OBA/Slg): .355/.415/.882 May: .235/.361/.422 June: .402/.496/.773 July: .206/.361/.474 August: .330/.434/.620 September: .362/.470./723 "Shit Happens" is the answer to the question about why something happens when it does a whole lot more often than most fans think, and is why the focus on a particular player's "ability" to hit in post-season is a waste of time.

Vic Sage Oct 10 2007 02:35 PM

Edgy DC wrote: I'll agree with a lot there, but It wasn't his plate discipline that was the issue as the year progressed, so much as his lack of hard contact. I'd bet his batting average and slugging percentage tailed off more than his walk rate. It seemed to me, anecdotally, that Reyes swung at bad balls in a way that he hadn't been earlier in the season. That is what may have lead to a lot of weak contact and a drop in his slugging %. As for his BB rate, he drew 42 BBs in his first 72 games (up to that 6/24th peak i noted) for a rate of .58 BB/gm; after that, he drew only 35 more BBs over his remaining 88 games, a rate of .39 BB/gm, costing him about 10 BBs over that period. While not a dramatic fall off, it does support my assertion that his plate discipline deteriorated. He also may have grown exhausted, since he played almost every inning of every game, which also probably contributed to his growing lack of pop over the 2nd half.

Zvon Oct 10 2007 02:38 PM

I didn't get to see the Mets play as much as years past, but what little I did see I can say without a doubt that there was more than just a simple slump at the plate going on here. There was a total change in his demeanor. He was not the same Jose who smiles and jumps and dances and brings balls of energy. Maybe he was tired. But I think there's something going on here that don't meet the eye. What if Jose himself felt nothing negative in regards to the contract but some little birdy got in his ear and told him he got the pine tarred end of the bat. That he should be making as much as Wright, because, like the papers say, he makes this team go. Let's see,.........who could have gotten in little Jose's ear.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 10 2007 02:40 PM

Well, you have to be careful to not get cause mixed up with effect. Maybe he was smiling and dancing less because he wasn't playing as well as he had been. Did he slump because he was less happy? Or was he less happy because he was slumping? I wouldn't spend too much time delving into why he was less happy when the reason may be right in front of us: he kept popping up the damn ball.

Zvon Oct 10 2007 02:58 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Well, you have to be careful to not get cause mixed up with effect. Maybe he was smiling and dancing less because he wasn't playing as well as he had been. Did he slump because he was less happy? Or was he less happy because he was slumping? I wouldn't spend too much time delving into why he was less happy when the reason may be right in front of us: he kept popping up the damn ball. I really do hope the reason for his funk was that simple. Thats still a cause for concern. You can't let a down time during the long season drag you down further. If you don't have the resiliency to recover from that you will not play to your potential. But it could be a simple lack of maturity, yes.

Valadius Oct 10 2007 06:58 PM

Maybe there was a slight change in his swing?

User 362 Oct 11 2007 12:30 PM Re: Jose Reyes Mind Games

MFS62 wrote: There have been several comments by the media as well as posters on various boards speculating on what was wrong with Jose Reyes during the second half of the season. There have been comments like "he seems distracted" and "he is having trouble focusing" and wondering if he is having problems off the field. I have a theory. I believe the touble that began his decline occurred on August 7. And it all boils down to ....... money. On August 3, Jose had signed a 4 year contract extension for $23.25 million. But on August 7, David Wright signed one for 6 years, $55 million. I think Jose's pride at his contract turned to jealousy. And I believe that explains the funk he's been in ever since. Hey, its as good a theory as any. Later Reyes just isn't very mature.