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Braun and Pedroia get ROY

metsguyinmichigan
Nov 12 2007 12:02 PM

I thought Tulo would get a shot at the NL Award.

Valadius
Nov 12 2007 12:06 PM

Braun beat Tulowitski by only two points.

A Boy Named Seo
Nov 12 2007 12:09 PM

Braun totally deserved it. Glad they got it right.

Valadius
Nov 12 2007 12:13 PM

I agree, Braun did deserve it. Project his numbers out over a full season - he hits 40 homers easily.

Frayed Knot
Nov 12 2007 12:16 PM

You wonder if any of the voters even considered defense when casting their ballots.
Not only does Tulowitski play the tougher position, but the difference between the skill level of the two isn't just a gap, it's a fuckin chasm. Braun can hit like hell but is a BRUTAL glove man.

Edgy DC
Nov 12 2007 12:23 PM

Agreed. Tulo was probably the best shortstop in the league --- as a rook.

metsguyinmichigan
Nov 12 2007 12:49 PM

Brian Bannister got a first-place vote in the AL.

A Boy Named Seo
Nov 12 2007 12:54 PM

Frayed Knot wrote:
You wonder if any of the voters even considered defense when casting their ballots.
Not only does Tulowitski play the tougher position, but the difference between the skill level of the two isn't just a gap, it's a fuckin chasm. Braun can hit like hell but is a BRUTAL glove man.


For sure, but how much more awesome does Tulowitski have to be to offset the offensive difference?

PlayerBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+ABBBRuns2bHRRBISBCSHome OPSRoad OPSHome OPS+Road OPS+
Toolowitski.291.359.479.8381086095710433249976.960.71914694
Brawnie Man.327.370.6341.00415345129912634971551.045.966166155

Edgy DC
Nov 12 2007 12:58 PM

They don't really consider this stuff in Rookie of the Year voting --- and maybe they shouldn't --- but Tulo had a lot lot more plate appearances.

Frayed Knot
Nov 12 2007 01:04 PM

NAME1st (5 pts)2nd (3 pts)3rd (1 pt)TOTAL
Braun17141128
Tulowitski15170126
Pence001515
Young (Ariz)001010
Kendrick0147
Escobar0011
Loney0011


NAME1st (5 pts)2nd (3 pts)3rd (1 pt)TOTAL
Pedroia2440132
Young (TB)312556
Bannister18736
Matsuzaka02612
Okajima0033
Fields (Chi)0011
Soria (KC)0011

Edgy DC
Nov 12 2007 01:05 PM

EIGHT, the stubid new acronym for Edgy's Indicator of Good Hitting Teamwork says their offense gap still may be outside the range of thier defensive difference.

EIGHT = (OPS+ - 60) * PA

Tulowitzki = (108-60) * 682 = 48 * 682 = 32736
Braun = (153 - 60) * 492 = 93 * 492 = 45756

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 12 2007 01:06 PM

When was the last time a Mets player got even a single vote for Rookie of the Year?

Is it possible that it's all the way back to Gregg Jefferies in 1988?

metsguyinmichigan
Nov 12 2007 01:06 PM

If you had told me before the season that Bannister would fare better in ROY voting than Dice-K, I'd have thought you were nuts!

Frayed Knot
Nov 12 2007 01:07 PM

]...but how much more awesome does Tulowitski have to be to offset the offensive difference?


I'm not even claiming that Tulowitski deserved to win, only if/how many voters even considered the defensive aspect of the game.
My guess: not many

Edgy DC
Nov 12 2007 01:08 PM

Nah, i can think of plenty of action off the top of my head. Jay Payton came in third, Jason Isringhausen in fourth. I'll bet Reyes and Wright got some respect also.

Valadius
Nov 12 2007 01:08 PM

Possibly Jay Payton.

Edgy DC
Nov 12 2007 01:11 PM

No Wright. No Seo. Reyes came in eighth, Wigginton eighth, Matsui sixth.

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 12 2007 01:15 PM

Where do you find the voting results?

I've long considered putting such info on the UMDB for guys who get votes but don't win Cy Young, MVP, and ROY.

Edgy DC
Nov 12 2007 01:18 PM

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 12 2007 01:19 PM

Cool!

Thanks.

A Boy Named Seo
Nov 12 2007 01:26 PM

Frayed Knot wrote:
NAME1st (5 pts)2nd (3 pts)3rd (1 pt)TOTAL
Braun17141128
Tulowitski15170126
Pence001515
Young (Ariz)001010
Kendrick0147
Escobar0011
Loney0011


NAME1st (5 pts)2nd (3 pts)3rd (1 pt)TOTAL
Pedroia2440132
Young (TB)312556
Bannister18736
Matsuzaka02612
Okajima0033
Fields (Chi)0011
Soria (KC)0011


The dude who voted Kendrick 2nd (gotta be from Philly) is probably the same dude that voted Braun 3rd. These ballots are anonymous aren't they?

Frayed Knot
Nov 12 2007 01:39 PM

]These ballots are anonymous aren't they?


The BBWA doesn't attach names to ballots although many of the writers willingly publish their own picks when they have one.
Who votes for which award is on a rotating basis although some newspapers (NY Times for one) bar their folks from participating to avoid any appearance of conflict of interest.

metsmarathon
Nov 12 2007 03:01 PM

braun had 22 win shares (20.4 hitting, 1.5 fielding), tulo 25 (14.4 hitting, 10.9 fielding)

tulowitzki's warp3 is 10.6, good for 15th best all time rookie season per baseball prospectus. 36 batting runs above replacement, 16 above average, 62 fielding runs above replacement, 30 above average. (adjusted for all time)

braun's warp3 is 4.8. 56 batting runs above replacement, 42 above average, 12 fielding runs BELOW replacement, 27 below average. (adjusted for all time)

12 runs below replacement is fucking awful glovework.

braun also had 96 equivalent runs to tulo's 92 (adjusted for all time)

A Boy Named Seo
Nov 12 2007 03:09 PM

Damn.

Nymr83
Nov 12 2007 04:08 PM

Neyer says Tulowitzki deserved it.

[url]http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3106779&name=Neyer_Rob&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3106779%26name%3dNeyer_Rob[/url]

]The Win Shares method considers defensive value. Tulowitzki finished with 25 Win Shares; Braun finished with 22. Baseball Prospecutus's Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) also considers defense. Tulowitzki finished with 8.5 WARP; Braun with 3.9.

The massive difference in WARP is, of course, because of the massive (measured) difference in defensive value. WARP credits Tulowitzki with 49 Fielding Runs Above Replacement, while Braun is debited with minus-15 FRAR. That's essentially a six- or seven-win difference (10 runs = 1 win), which simply isn't balanced by Braun's superior hitting