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How do you distinguish 'em?

Who is the best bet to have the greater career?

Mike Pelfrey	12 votes
Phil Humber	6 votes

Edgy DC Nov 26 2007 01:37 PM

We seem to be bandying Pelfrey and Humber about as interchangeable, but there are meaningful differences. Humber is a year older, with a sugery behind him. Pelfrey has struggled as a big leaguer, Humber has been mediocre as a AAA-er. Pelfrey fanned 167 and walked 62 in 176 minor league innings (8.54 and 3.17 per nine, respectively). Humber fanned 266 and walked 84 in 289.33 minor league innings (8.27 and 2.61 per nine, respectively). Pelfrey has 94 big league innings to Humbers nine, not meaningless to a guy a year younger. But then there's Humber's greater control. Humber came out of a rigorus workload at a Rice program that Rick Peterson has said he doesn't particularly trust. Obviously, the temptation is to see two big young starting righthanded power pitchers (Pelfrey is taller, Humber broader) drafted at the top of the first round as equal chips in the pursuit of the greater good --- Santana or some other greater good. But, while you may offer Minnesota or whoever the pick of the two, a good bargainer will try to steer them toward the guy they least want.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 26 2007 01:44 PM

I voted Pelfrey for the unscientific reason that I've seen him pitch a few really good innings here and there in the big leagues. Few good starts, but there have been times where he seemed to shine. That gives me at least some hope that he'll one day figure it all out, as guys like Craig Swan and Mike Scott eventually did.

Frayed Knot Nov 26 2007 01:55 PM

I have a generally more favorable view (ie. see a better future for/would prefer not to trade) of Pelfrey but it's not like that's based on a whole lot other than a few perceived differences: - MP seemed to have more hype coming out of his amateur career despite his lower (9th vs 3rd) draft position - more faith in a hard, sinking fastball as a ML out-pitch than the notoriously fickle curveball - 1 yr younger and no surgery vs older and yes surgery

metirish Nov 26 2007 02:04 PM

Went with Pelfrey for the same reasons as above, I wanted to vote for Humber though, just haven't seen him enough.

Edgy DC Nov 26 2007 02:06 PM

I want with Humber on the highly speculative notion that the sugery sucks going forward, but it's not such a bad thing for a young man to have behind him. I think I voted wrong though.

smg58 Nov 26 2007 03:49 PM

Here's the catch: I think that the actual difference between Pelfrey and Humber is smaller than the perceived difference. So while I think more highly of Pelfrey (he's younger, more ML ready and doesn't have a major injury on his resumé), I don't think I could deal Humber and get what he's worth in return.

MFS62 Dec 07 2007 07:24 AM

Don't know about full career, but I'm still hanging in there with my prediction that Humber will pitch the first no-hitter for the Mets. Later

Willets Point Dec 07 2007 03:46 PM

None of the above?

vtmet Dec 08 2007 11:09 AM

I voted for Humber, but if both remain Mets then I would pick Pelfrey... THe guy with the better fastball is the safe pick, and if Pelfrey figured out how to get Brandon Webb results out of his sinking fastball, he might not need many secondary pitches... I think that if Humber went to the AL Central/West, that he could have a better chance of success...IMO, curveball pitchers have decent success in the AL (no, I have no documented proof of that)...I don't really see the Mets giving Humber enough of a chance to be successful here, but I could be wrong...

RealityChuck Dec 08 2007 03:28 PM

While I like both, I voted for Humber because I think he's underrated. His WHIP last year in the minors was better than Pelfrey's (1.24 vs. 1.35) and his ERA is just a bit higher. ERA numbers are misleading in the PCL: the league ERA is 4.68, so Humber's 4.27 isn't all that bad. He was second in WHIP for pitchers with more than 100 innings and third in hits per nine innings (again for over 100 ip -- before anyone brings it up, there were 59 pitchers in the league who hit 100 ip). As for his major league numbers this year, he basically rotted on the bench in September, with only two brief relief stints before his disasterous start. But he had hardly pitched, so was quite likely rusty. My feelings are that, while the Tongue has greater potential, Humber is gong to be the surer bet.