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Frayed Knot Dec 02 2007 09:52 PM

aka; the home of the winter meetings The crew at Baseball Prospectus get things started with the latest pre-meeting scuttlebutt: * The Yankees are going to have to offer more than what they have on the table. The team thought putting Phil Hughes on the table was enough, but the Twins aren’t selling Johan Santana for anything less than three major-league ready prospects. The Red Sox offer is also short, leaving some wiggle room for other teams - the Mariners? - to make a run. The M’s could offer an attractive package, but Jeff Clement, a catcher, isn’t that interesting with Joe Mauer locked in. * Dan Haren is everyone’s Plan B, but he’s going to cost nearly as much. With new Twins GM Bill Smith holding the line on Santana, Billy Beane and the A’s could end up making the deal by simply being willing to make the deal. * Aaron Rowand has been “really close” for about a week, says one source. So why hasn’t he signed? “Fluid market,” says one AL exec. “Rowand and Andruw Jones are kind of on hold until we all figure out Kosuke Fukudome and whether Coco Crisp will be dealt.” None of them get Torii Hunter money, but maybe Gary Matthews Jr money. * Kyle Lohse is this year’s Ted Lilly. Everyone will fight for him, then complain that they’re fighting over him. That said, no one thinks he’ll be signed during the Meetings. “Too many offers and the market for pitching has been all focused on trades.” * Miguel Cabrera? “You’ve got to be kidding me,” says the AL exec. “The Marlins must be advised by Chuck Lamar on the art of the deal. You can’t ever say you won’t deal with someone, but no one likes picking up the phone from them right now.” * Who’s the surprise player? According to five different independent sources, it’s the Orioles. “They’re buyers and sellers, plus this is probably the one time when Andy MacPhail will have a free hand to make these kinds of decisions.” Others mentioned are the Royals, Astros, and Giants. *Don’t expect any early deals. There’s nothing THAT close right now and the teams will stay away from announcing anything close to the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee results, assuming they have some.

metirish Dec 02 2007 09:55 PM

I like the winter meetings, something big usually happens for someone.

Edgy DC Dec 02 2007 10:49 PM

Why, yes, I would like them to move the team to Nashville.

seawolf17 Dec 03 2007 07:30 AM

Have you ever been to the Opryland Hotel? It's like its own planet. The place is enormous.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 03 2007 07:35 AM

I went to Nashville once. It was right after Gore lost Tennessee. Went to the Grand Ole Opry, which was OK to say you did but definitely catered to the 3 dozen busloads of touring seniors at the show. They apparently moved the theatre to this off-ramp combo shopping mall/amusement park/hotel complex and subsequently beat all the soul out of it. You'd do better historically at the Country Music hall of Fame and at the local bootscootin places.

Vic Sage Dec 03 2007 09:59 AM

i went to a few conferences at that hotel, in my bachelor days. Good times, good times... Many rooms have terraces that overlook an indoor atrium. Nice gourmet restaurant, too. Had Bananas Foster. mmmmmmmm My nephew is there, right now. He goes to school at UConn and wants to get into sports administration/management. He did an internship last summer with an independent league team in CT. He's at the meetings because they run a job fair there for college kids. He's a Yankee fan, but i can't hold it against him. Its his poor upbringing, largely the fault of my idiot brother. It would cool, on so many levels, if he got a job with the Mets.

Centerfield Dec 04 2007 08:30 AM

Speculation in the rags today is that the Mets might not make any move, for a starting pitcher or otherwise. I hope this is just posturing on Omar's part. Schneider/Church better not be the major acquisitions of this off-season.

metirish Dec 04 2007 08:39 AM

Vic Sage wrote: He's a Yankee fan, but i can't hold it against him. Its his poor upbringing, largely the fault of my idiot brother. . Funny.

metirish Dec 04 2007 10:50 AM

Dickshots least favorite pitcher of recent vintage gets tradred to the Nationals for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo, now JD can look forward to more Tyler Clippard.

Frayed Knot Dec 04 2007 11:06 AM

Centerfield wrote: Speculation in the rags today is that the Mets might not make any move, for a starting pitcher or otherwise. I hope this is just posturing on Omar's part. Schneider/Church better not be the major acquisitions of this off-season. Except that (as we've discovered from time to time) no move is better than a bad move and it's the over-anxiousness to make A move that often leads to bad moves.

metirish Dec 04 2007 11:07 AM

Lots of stuff going on at the meetings, some small some potentially huge. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb

Edgy DC Dec 04 2007 11:13 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: ="Centerfield"]Speculation in the rags today is that the Mets might not make any move, for a starting pitcher or otherwise. I hope this is just posturing on Omar's part. Schneider/Church better not be the major acquisitions of this off-season. Except that (as we've discovered from time to time) no move is better than a bad move and it's the over-anxiousness to make A move that often leads to bad moves. Word to Mrs. Knot.

Frayed Knot Dec 04 2007 11:23 AM

Common sequence of thought among fans at this time of year: 1) Our GM needs to make a big move 2) When is he going to make a move? 3) Make a move already!!!! 4) NO, NOT THAT ONE!!!!

metirish Dec 04 2007 01:35 PM

Bedard apparently going to the Dodgers for Broxton and Kemp + others.

Edgy DC Dec 04 2007 02:30 PM

Huge uniform time for the Orioles.

Valadius Dec 04 2007 04:15 PM

If true, the Orioles board I visited will be having a party - that's exactly what they wanted.

Valadius Dec 04 2007 04:21 PM

Apparently, we're in the running for Kuroda, though he's looking for 5 years, $50 million.

metirish Dec 04 2007 05:41 PM

Valadius wrote: Apparently, we're in the running for Kuroda, though he's looking for 5 years, $50 million. You mean Hiroki Kuroda?, the DOdgers apparently have made an offer to him.

metirish Dec 04 2007 08:13 PM

I'm reading the ESPN blog. ] 8:12 p.m., from Steve Phillips • The Mets offered Aaron Heilman, Carlos Gomez and Philip Humber for Erik Bedard FWIW SNY's MLB insider says they turned that down .

metirish Dec 04 2007 08:17 PM

Hank has pulled out...... ] "A deadline is a deadline. It was pretty much done as of this morning," Steinbrenner said. "He's a fine pitcher, but there's a lot of things that go into this. This isn't fantasy baseball." Apparently Boston has him in a trade , that's the hot word down there.

Nymr83 Dec 04 2007 10:14 PM

metirish wrote: Hank has pulled out...... ] "A deadline is a deadline. It was pretty much done as of this morning," Steinbrenner said. "He's a fine pitcher, but there's a lot of things that go into this. This isn't fantasy baseball." "if he opts out he won't be a yankee next year" - hank "i've got no credibility" steinbrenner

metirish Dec 05 2007 08:43 PM

No way this happens. ] Here are some other things I heard before I left for the evening: - Although it is not confirmed, the Tigers might look to trade Dontrelle Willis and Ivan Rodriguez to the Mets for Brian Schneider, Phil Humber, Fernando Martinez, and Aaron Heilman. Those names are not being thrown around at the moment, but it is a possibility. Personally, I think the Tigers should absorb the money by bringing in these players and make a run at a World Series. http://mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 06 2007 05:20 AM

Andruw to the Dodgers, 2 years, $36 million

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 07:21 AM

Yowzers that's a lot of cash for a guy coming off a bad year!! So does he go to a corner spot or do they try to dump their last bad CF contract (Juan Pierre) on someone?

smg58 Dec 06 2007 07:28 AM

]Those names are not being thrown around at the moment, but it is a possibility. In other words, the writer is just making shit up.

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 07:44 AM

I think even referring to those at rumor sites like that one or say RotoWorld as "writers" is probably stretching things a bit. What I did hear (radio) was that the Mets had previously inquired about Dontrelle but were told he was unavailable and that even if he were they weren't about to deal him within the division. But the Tigers are under no such restrictions and so considered spinning him off after they completed the trade, including one where they could package him with a catcher for the back-stop starved Mets and get out from under the final year of Ivan the Catcher's contract. THAT, of course, is where the speculation (ie; making shit up) comes into play. The Tiggers would be stuck w/o a catcher if they dealt him so Schneider's name comes into play. The other names are just a case of rounding up the usual suspects that you can only get from "insider" sites like that one ... or from 90% of the people on the street.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 07:55 AM

metirish wrote: No way this happens. ] Here are some other things I heard before I left for the evening: - Although it is not confirmed, the Tigers might look to trade Dontrelle Willis and Ivan Rodriguez to the Mets for Brian Schneider, Phil Humber, Fernando Martinez, and Aaron Heilman. Those names are not being thrown around at the moment, but it is a possibility. Personally, I think the Tigers should absorb the money by bringing in these players and make a run at a World Series. http://mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/ I would happily do that deal.

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 08:04 AM

Well it would depend on what the details of the deal are ... but do keep in mind that Pudge is a fraction of the defensive stalwart he was in years past and has racked up sub-.300 OBAs in two of the last three seasons. 2005-2007 K/BB = 275/46 and last year alone it was 96/9

soupcan Dec 06 2007 08:10 AM

But he's only got the one year left on his deal (I think) and he's better than any catcher the Mets have right now. Besides this is about Dontrelle.

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 08:22 AM

And Dontrelle was lousy last year too. Also, Pudge has a no-trade clause which players in his spot frequently use to try to force extensions onto existing deals in order to sign off on a trade. As always, it'll all depend on the details.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 08:26 AM

I'll give D-Train (a perfect nickname for a player in NYC) a pass on last year. He's a stud. Didn't think about Pudge's no-trade/possible extension. Maybe that means the Mets can take back or switch out one of the players in the imagined deal - Martinez? Heilman? I'd really like to see Omar make this happen. Really. I would.

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 08:33 AM

Last [u:9835df6dd5]two[/u:9835df6dd5] years for Willis = IPs down, hits up, Ks down, BBs up, HRs allowed up, ERA up I'd fall considerably short of saying "Stud"

iramets Dec 06 2007 08:41 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: I'd fall considerably short of saying "Stud" So what's that? "Stuh"? Maybe just "SSSssss...'? What's overlooked in the I-Rod deal is that the Mets would own his contract for only a little bit, which is why A-Jo was able to get big bucks from LA--it's just two years' worth of Big Bucks, which is a reasonable gamble: by the time they figure that he's now not the player he once was was, the A-Jo era is over. And if he has a bog year in 208, you sign him to an extension. Beats the hell out of signing a question mark for most of a decade and finding yourself committed to the destruction of your franchise for the foreseeable future if he can't play anymore.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 08:47 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: Last two years for Willis = IPs down, hits up, Ks down, BBs up, HRs allowed up, ERA up I'd fall considerably short of saying "Stud" Okay fine but he's still a number 1 guy in his mid-twenties with no health issues who has won 20 games in the bigs. The money you'd have to pay Pudge and Dontrelle is still less than what you'd have to pay Santana anyway.

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 08:49 AM

]What's overlooked in the I-Rod deal is that the Mets would own his contract for only a little bit Not overlooked at all as it's specifically adressed above. And if he were gettable at only 1 year that would be a whole lot more palatable than if he were intent on forcing a 2 or 3 year extention out of it, especially since we already know he's not the player he once was.

iramets Dec 06 2007 08:59 AM

You don't extend him, except on an option basis tied to incentives.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 09:17 AM

Well he's in the driver's seat. If you don't extend him on his terms then he doesn't waive his no trade and you're shit outta luck.

iramets Dec 06 2007 09:43 AM

="soupcan"]Well he's in the driver's seat. If you don't extend him on his terms then he doesn't waive his no trade and you're shit outta luck. Which is why I suggested the 'options' option as a compromise between I-Rod asking for the sun, moon and stars and the mets offering nothing at all. If you willing to sign an option year extension, for which you'll have to play x games or get y at-bats,, then you're just extorting money, which doesn't make sense for the Mets. But if you want another year at your current rate if you put in x or y, that's a reasonable risk.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 10:57 AM

Sure but my point is that he is in the position of extorting money and when has a ballplayer ever been in that position and not taken advantage of it? UGH- Now I'm Bobby Bonilla? Geez.

metsmarathon Dec 06 2007 11:30 AM

the cost in terms of prospects should be mitigated by the cost in terms of dollars that hte mets would be getting back. not to mention the uncertainty inherent with both willis and pudge.

Frayed Knot Dec 06 2007 11:35 AM

Keep in mind also that you're already taking a catcher at ~$13mil/per who makes outs at a considerably greater rate than the departing Paul LoDuca. And while, yeah, the rest of his game is better all-around than PLD, he's no longer the power threat he once was as he went from a 3-season run of 87 HRs to just 28 over the last 3 (and looks smaller than he once did ... Hmmmmm!) So unless he's not only agreeing to only a conditional extension but also to one that pays him at around half the rate of the current one (for his likely to decline age 38 & 39 seasons) then I'm not even sure the conditional route is a great deal for the team that gets him. And while I don't object to Dontrelle I also don't think he should be treated as a #1, something he really only was for one season (2005)

Vic Sage Dec 06 2007 11:47 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 06 2007 11:50 AM

The Tigers pitching staff is deep enough not to need Willis, and I-Rod is in serious decline. That, together with the Mets agreeing to take those huge financial commitments off Detroit's books, give Mets some bargaining position here, and therefore the package of talent we offer should reflect that. I would try and keep Heilman and Pelfrey out of the deal: Schneider + Gomez + Humber or Mulvey + Guerra (or similar A ball prospect) If they insist on Pelfrey + Heilman, then they get Schneider, but no Gomez Otherwise, emptying the top tier of the farm system for 2 guys with significant question marks is a risky acquisition

soupcan Dec 06 2007 11:49 AM

Make. The. Deal.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 06 2007 11:51 AM

meh. Pudge suxx, haven;t you seen?

Vic Sage Dec 06 2007 11:52 AM

yes, but he still suxx less than Schneider.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 12:00 PM

Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle Dontrelle

John Cougar Lunchbucket Dec 06 2007 12:07 PM

Vic Sage wrote: yes, but he still suxx less than Schneider. Tho even that's becoming debatable, specially when you consider Pudge has zero defensive game anymore. I'm all for rehabilitating D Willis tho.

Vic Sage Dec 06 2007 12:09 PM

Upon closer inspection of the numbers, i note that I-Rod's OPS+ dropped off 3 years ago (2005 = 94, 2006 = 97, 2007 = 85), so its not like he's just had a bad year. And think of this -- 9 BB / 96 K last year!!! And however much better he is than Schneider on defense (and its arguable that he isn't much better, or even as good), its certainly not worth the players and extra $9m/year he'll cost. As for Willis, he's had 1 great year, 1 good year, 2 mediocre years and 1 bad year. So "stud" is not an apt description. Over the last few years, his BBs have gone up and his Ks have gone down. And while he's still quite young, its interesting to note that the most comparable player to him at his age was Atlanta flameout Steve Avery. So, while he still can re-establish himself, he could also go the way of the dodo, and, again, giving up the players & $$ it'll take to get these 2 guys is HIGHLY risky. Which is why Omar might just do it.

Valadius Dec 06 2007 12:26 PM

The ESPN Nashville blog says that the Mets have talked to Toronto about A.J. Burnett, perhaps for Carlos Gomez.

Edgy DC Dec 06 2007 12:26 PM

Remember, it's all about the backpage splashes.

soupcan Dec 06 2007 12:27 PM

So maybe the Mets don't have to bankrupt the system to get D-Train then. 25 years old, playing with a winning team with a solid defense in NYC. You know you guys want him. Pedro, Willis, Maine, Perez. That doesn't sound too bad now does it? If you get Santana you're going to have to give him $130-$140 mil over 7 years. History shows that eventually that'll be a bad contract. Whatever you pay and then later have to eat because of Pudge is going to be a whole lot less than what you would give to Santana and The Mets wouldn't have to give the Tiggers the same kind of package that a Santana deal would demand.

Valadius Dec 06 2007 12:28 PM

Edgy DC wrote: Remember, it's all about the backpage splashes. And sticking it to the Yankees.

metirish Dec 06 2007 09:18 PM

Tigers owner came out tonight and said that while he wants the team to have a responsible payroll they do not want to or need to trade Willis for payroll reasons and the team has him slotted in as the number three starter.