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Keith Law not sold on Houston.
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Astros still not a realistic contenderposted: Saturday, December 15, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros
It appears that no matter who's on the roster, when Astros general manager Ed Wade looks at a baseball team, the first thing he thinks is, "I need to fix that bullpen." At least this time around, he landed a great catch by trading for closer Jose Valverde.
Valverde was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2007, pitching extremely well and doing so in a lot of highly-leveraged situations (that is, tight games where every out he recorded had a big impact on Arizona's chances of winning the game). His stuff is electric -- a mid-90s fastball, a mid-80s splitter without much bottom but that looks like a weak fastball out of his hand, and a tight-breaking slider with velocity right around that of the splitter. His control is fair and his command isn't great, but his stuff is so consistently good that he gets swings and misses and hasn't been homer-prone despite being a flyball pitcher.
So why was Valverde available? He's about to earn a raise of $3 million or so in arbitration -- arbitrators are easily impressed by things like saves, RBIs, and shiny objects -- and Arizona has plenty of in-house closer alternatives, including Tony Peņa and Juan Cruz. Valverde also was as bad in 2006 as he was good in 2007, posting an ERA near 6.00 despite similar peripherals. But the biggest reason might be the probability that Valverde is going to blow out at some point in the near future. He hasn't thrown 70 innings in a pro season since 2003, and his delivery puts a good amount of stress on his arm, with a stabbing action at the start and a very quick whipping motion as he brings his arm through. Shoulder surgery ended his 2004 season, but he's been healthy since.
The package coming back to Arizona is a little light given how good Valverde was last year; a pitcher like that should have had a greater market value, even though this deal is still good for the Snakes. Chad Qualls is a groundball-machine reliever who runs his sinker up to 94 mph, with more sink in the 90-91 mph range. He also throws a cutter/slider in the high 80s to set off the sinker and get some swings and misses; think of him as Manny Corpas Lite. Because he's been so durable, averaging over 83 innings a year in the big leagues, Qualls has actually been more valuable than Valverde in raw production. Since the Diamondbacks know how to deploy their relievers, they're not likely to miss a beat with the switch from Valverde to Qualls.
Juan Gutierrez, a right-handed pitcher and one of the two players the D-backs acquired from the Astros for Valverde, has a live arm with one good secondary pitch, but needs to work on his breaking ball and his fastball command before he can pitch in a big-league rotation. His fastball is above-average at 91-94 mph; it's mostly straight but it occasionally shows some late life. His changeup is plus but inconsistent, 79-81 mph with good arm speed and a very late fading action. His curveball needs a lot of work, as right now it's a slow roller that's just a show-me pitch, and he may be better off thowing a slider given his arm slot and the lack of bite on his deuce.
Chris Burke, the other player obtained in the trade, has to be one of the bigger draft disappointments of the decade. He was the 10th overall pick in the 2001 draft, and in 2004 hit .315/.385/.507 in Triple-A while playing his home games in a pitchers' park. Yet other than a well-timed playoff homer in 2005, since he reached the majors he hasn't performed anywhere near the level expected of him. His swing can get long and his approach has been way too aggressive since he reached the majors. It's possible that Houston's constant position-switching with Burke -- all to accommodate Craig Biggio well past the point when Biggio was helping the club -- set his offensive development back, but there's no everyday role open in Arizona for him to establish himself.
The problem with this deal for Houston, as with a lot of what they've done this winter, is that they still aren't contenders. Swapping Qualls for Valverde might net them another win in 2008, but that's not even a guarantee. They're still a sub-.500 club operating as if 2007 never happened, and unless there's an upcoming move to acquire a big bat and at least one more starting pitcher, the ongoing gutting of their farm system is just going to set their inevitable rebuilding process further back.
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