Master Index of Archived Threads


Prediction thread: Who's staying and who's going

Benjamin Grimm Aug 10 2005 08:56 AM

Here's a new kind of prediction thread. I'm going to list the names of ten players who are currently in the Mets organization. For each player, give a number, from 0 to 10, indicating how likely you think it is that he'll still be Mets property on Opening Day, 2006. (He doesn't have to be on the active roster. If he's in the minors or on the DL, it still counts as being present.) If you think a player is definitely not returning, vote 0. Definitely returning, vote 10. For every player who does return, your score will be the number you assigned to him. For every player who's gone by Opening Day, your score will be 10 minus your number. Example: You think Player A is unlikely to return, but you think there's a slight possibility that he will, so you give him a 3. If he does return, you were pretty wrong, so you only get 3 points. If he doesn't, you were mostly right, so you get 7. A perfect score is 100. To get it you have to vote 0 or 10 for every player, and be correct every time. You can guarantee yourself a wishy-washy 50 by voting 5 for every player. Rumors may start swirling as we get closer to August 31, so the sooner you vote the more pure your guess will be. Voting will be closed once one of the ten departs, or August 31, whichever comes first. Here are the ten players, in alphabetical order: Cameron, Mike Floyd, Cliff Glavine, Tom Looper, Braden Matsui, Kaz Mientkiewicz, Doug Milledge, Lastings Piazza, Mike Seo, Jae Wong Trachsel, Steve

metirish Aug 10 2005 09:01 AM

Cameron, Mike - 10 Floyd, Cliff - 10 Glavine, Tom - 10 Looper, Braden - 6 Matsui, Kaz - 8 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 0 Milledge, Lastings - 4 Piazza, Mike - 8 Seo, Jae Wong - 6 Trachsel, Steve - 8

Frayed Knot Aug 10 2005 09:05 AM

Cameron, Mike - 6 Floyd, Cliff - 9 Glavine, Tom - 9 Looper, Braden - 3 Matsui, Kaz - 4 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1 Milledge, Lastings - 8 Piazza, Mike - 2 Seo, Jae Wong - 6 Trachsel, Steve - 6

Edgy MD Aug 10 2005 09:07 AM

Cameron, Mike 7 Floyd, Cliff 9 Glavine, Tom 3 Looper, Braden 6 Matsui, Kaz 5 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 8 Piazza, Mike 3 Seo, Jae Weong 4 Trachsel, Steve 5

Benjamin Grimm Aug 10 2005 09:08 AM

Cameron, Mike 8 Floyd, Cliff 8 Glavine, Tom 7 Looper, Braden 4 Matsui, Kaz 4 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 6 Piazza, Mike 3 Seo, Jae Wong 6 Trachsel, Steve 7

metirish Aug 10 2005 09:09 AM

I know my 8 for Piazza seems crazy but I have a feeling he might stay, actually 8 is a strong feeling but you never know.

Johnny Dickshot Aug 10 2005 09:16 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM

Cameron, Mike 5 Floyd, Cliff 10 Glavine, Tom 5 Looper, Braden 3 Matsui, Kaz 2 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 10 Piazza, Mike 5 Seo, Jae Wong 4 Trachsel, Steve 6 NOTE: I edited Millege not realizing that if he was minor league he still counted.

Vic Sage Aug 10 2005 11:25 AM

Cameron, Mike - 5 Floyd, Cliff - 7 Glavine, Tom - 7 Looper, Braden - 8 Matsui, Kaz - 3 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1 Milledge, Lastings - 9 Piazza, Mike - 1 Seo, Jae Wong - 3 Trachsel, Steve - 6

rpackrat Aug 10 2005 11:37 AM

Cameron, Mike - 5 Floyd, Cliff - 8 Glavine, Tom - 8 Looper, Braden - 3 Matsui, Kaz - 4 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1 Milledge, Lastings - 10 Piazza, Mike -2 Seo, Jae Wong - 7 Trachsel, Steve - 7

86-Dreamer Aug 10 2005 12:31 PM

Cameron, Mike 1 Floyd, Cliff 10 Glavine, Tom 10 Looper, Braden 5 Matsui, Kaz 1 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 10 Piazza, Mike 2 Seo, Jae Wong 7 Trachsel, Steve 3

Rotblatt Aug 10 2005 12:57 PM

Cameron, Mike 0 Floyd, Cliff 10 Glavine, Tom 10 Looper, Braden 10 Matsui, Kaz 0 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 0 Piazza, Mike 0 Seo, Jae Wong 10 Trachsel, Steve 10 I'm going for broke. We will package Cam with Milledge and acquire Manny, trade K-Mat for a washed-up prospect (whereupon K-Mat will put up monster numbers in his new town), release Dougie, who will get a full-time job for a scrub team that will make a surprising run at the post-season in 2006 but fall short & we will release Piazza, who will become the DH/C for a West-Coast AL team. Milledge will be moved along with 2 other prospects for Adam Dunn, who will play first. Also on the Sox, Cameron will play centerfield, while Damon will sign a 5-year, $70M deal with the MFY. Cliff & Trachs will stay because we want them, Glavine because we couldn't deal him, and Seo because we want the Tides to win it all next year. You heard it all here first.

Nymr83 Aug 10 2005 01:20 PM

Cameron, Mike - 9 Floyd, Cliff - 10 Glavine, Tom - 10 Looper, Braden - 10 Matsui, Kaz - 0 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 3 Milledge, Lastings - 7 Piazza, Mike - 5 Seo, Jae Wong - 10 Tachsel, Steve - 10 byebye kazmat! (p.s. take ishii with you)

SwitchHitter Aug 10 2005 01:37 PM

Cameron, Mike 10 Floyd, Cliff 10 Glavine, Tom 10 Looper, Braden 8 Matsui, Kaz 6 Mientkiewicz, Doug 2 Milledge, Lastings 6 Piazza, Mike 6 Seo, Jae Wong 8 Trachsel, Steve 8

ScarletKnight41 Aug 10 2005 01:54 PM

Cameron, Mike - 5 Floyd, Cliff - 7 Glavine, Tom - 6 Looper, Braden - 6 Matsui, Kaz - 2 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 5 Milledge, Lastings - 9 Piazza, Mike - 2 Seo, Jae Wong - 7 Trachsel, Steve - 7

metsmarathon Aug 10 2005 02:37 PM

Cameron, Mike 7 Floyd, Cliff 8 Glavine, Tom 3 Looper, Braden 3 Matsui, Kaz 2 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 10 Piazza, Mike 10 Seo, Jae Wong 10 Trachsel, Steve 8

dgwphotography Aug 10 2005 05:10 PM

Cameron, Mike 5 Floyd, Cliff 9 Glavine, Tom 3 Looper, Braden 3 Matsui, Kaz 2 Mientkiewicz, Doug 4 Milledge, Lastings 10 Piazza, Mike 9 Seo, Jae Wong 8 Trachsel, Steve 7

DocTee Aug 10 2005 06:47 PM

Cameron, Mike - 4 Floyd, Cliff - 9 Glavine, Tom - 4 Looper, Braden - 8 Matsui, Kaz - 2 Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1 Milledge, Lastings - 8 Piazza, Mike - 6 Seo, Jae Wong - 7 Trachsel, Steve - 6

seawolf17 Aug 10 2005 06:56 PM

I wanted to go all tens and zeroes, but Rotty stole my thunder. So I'll mix it up a bit... Cameron, Mike 0 Floyd, Cliff 7 Glavine, Tom 7 Looper, Braden 7 Matsui, Kaz 3 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 Milledge, Lastings 3 Piazza, Mike 0 Seo, Jae Weong 7 Trachsel, Steve 10

TheOldMole Aug 10 2005 08:19 PM

Cameron, Mike 6 Floyd, Cliff 9 Glavine, Tom 7 Looper, Braden 7 Matsui, Kaz 4 Mientkiewicz, Doug 5 Milledge, Lastings 9 Piazza, Mike 3 Seo, Jae Wong 1 Trachsel, Steve 8

Benjamin Grimm Sep 02 2005 08:28 AM

It's time to archive this prediction thread. If we remember, we'll revisit it after Opening Day and see how we've all done. Winner gets a photo of Jane Jarvis.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2005 12:09 PM

Here's how everybody voted. Our consensus seems to be that Floyd is most likely to stay, and Mientkiewicz (remember him?) most likely to leave. The Points column all the way to the right are our current scores, with everybody still here. As players leave, the listing will be updated. In the unlikely event that everyone does stay, Namor and Annie will be our winners, tied at 74 points. And yes, I do have another magic spreadsheet going here. I've also figured out that the only way I can win this meaningless little competition is if Cameron, Floyd, and Trachsel stay, and everyone else goes. Cameron Floyd Glavine Looper Matsui Mientkiewicz Milledge Piazza Seo Trachsel Points metirish 10 10 10 6 8 0 4 8 6 8 70 Frayed Knot 6 9 9 3 4 1 8 2 6 6 54 Edgy DC 7 9 3 6 5 0 8 3 4 5 50 Yancy Street Gang 8 8 7 4 4 0 6 3 6 7 53 Johnny Dickshot 5 10 5 3 2 0 10 5 4 6 50 Vic Sage 5 7 7 8 3 1 9 1 3 6 50 rpackrat 5 8 8 3 4 1 10 2 7 7 55 86 Dreamer 1 10 10 5 1 0 10 2 7 3 49 Rotblatt 0 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 50 Nymr83 9 10 10 10 0 3 7 5 10 10 74 SwitchHitter 10 10 10 8 6 2 6 6 8 8 74 ScarletKnight41 5 7 6 6 2 5 9 2 7 7 56 metsmarathon 7 8 3 3 2 0 10 10 10 8 61 Iubitul 5 9 3 3 2 4 10 9 8 7 60 DocTee 4 9 4 8 2 1 8 6 7 6 55 seawolf17 0 7 7 7 3 0 3 0 7 10 44 TheOldMole 6 9 7 7 4 5 9 3 1 8 59 Average 5.47 8.82 7.00 5.88 3.06 1.35 7.47 3.94 6.53 7.18

Benjamin Grimm Nov 23 2005 09:22 AM

With Cameron gone, Rotblatt and seawolf get a big ten points, and 86 Dreamer gets 9. If nobody else leaves, though, Namor will be our winner. Cameron Floyd Glavine Looper Matsui Mientkiewicz Milledge Piazza Seo Trachsel Points metirish 0 10 10 6 8 0 4 8 6 8 60 Frayed Knot 4 9 9 3 4 1 8 2 6 6 52 Edgy DC 3 9 3 6 5 0 8 3 4 5 46 Yancy Street Gang 2 8 7 4 4 0 6 3 6 7 47 Johnny Dickshot 5 10 5 3 2 0 10 5 4 6 50 Vic Sage 5 7 7 8 3 1 9 1 3 6 50 rpackrat 5 8 8 3 4 1 10 2 7 7 55 86 Dreamer 9 10 10 5 1 0 10 2 7 3 57 Rotblatt 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 60 Nymr83 1 10 10 10 0 3 7 5 10 10 66 SwitchHitter 0 10 10 8 6 2 6 6 8 8 64 ScarletKnight41 5 7 6 6 2 5 9 2 7 7 56 metsmarathon 3 8 3 3 2 0 10 10 10 8 57 Iubitul 5 9 3 3 2 4 10 9 8 7 60 DocTee 6 9 4 8 2 1 8 6 7 6 57 seawolf17 10 7 7 7 3 0 3 0 7 10 54 TheOldMole 4 9 7 7 4 5 9 3 1 8 57 Average 4.53 8.82 7.00 5.88 3.06 1.35 7.47 3.94 6.53 7.18 Nymr83 66 SwitchHitter 64 metirish 60 Iubitul 60 Rotblatt 60 metsmarathon 57 TheOldMole 57 DocTee 57 86 Dreamer 57 ScarletKnight41 56 rpackrat 55 seawolf17 54 Frayed Knot 52 Vic Sage 50 Johnny Dickshot 50 Yancy Street Gang 47 Edgy DC 46

Benjamin Grimm Dec 08 2005 09:10 AM

Piazza, Looper, and Mientkiewicz are now all officially gone, so here are the updated scores. Namor's certainty in Looper's return costs him, as does his hedging on Piazza and Mientkiewicz. The ultimate fates of Matsui and Milledge will probably decide this contest. Cameron Floyd Glavine Looper Matsui Mientkiewicz Milledge Piazza Seo Trachsel Points metirish 0 10 10 4 8 10 4 2 6 8 62 Frayed Knot 4 9 9 7 4 9 8 8 6 6 70 Edgy DC 3 9 3 4 5 10 8 7 4 5 58 Yancy Street Gang 2 8 7 6 4 10 6 7 6 7 63 Johnny Dickshot 5 10 5 7 2 10 10 5 4 6 64 Vic Sage 5 7 7 2 3 9 9 9 3 6 60 rpackrat 5 8 8 7 4 9 10 8 7 7 73 86 Dreamer 9 10 10 5 1 10 10 8 7 3 73 Rotblatt 10 10 10 0 0 10 0 10 10 10 70 Nymr83 1 10 10 0 0 7 7 5 10 10 60 SwitchHitter 0 10 10 2 6 8 6 4 8 8 62 ScarletKnight41 5 7 6 4 2 5 9 8 7 7 60 metsmarathon 3 8 3 7 2 10 10 0 10 8 61 Iubitul 5 9 3 7 2 6 10 1 8 7 58 DocTee 6 9 4 2 2 9 8 4 7 6 57 seawolf17 10 7 7 3 3 10 3 10 7 10 70 TheOldMole 4 9 7 3 4 5 9 7 1 8 57 Average 4.53 8.82 7.00 4.12 3.06 8.65 7.47 6.06 6.53 7.18 86 Dreamer 73 rpackrat 73 Rotblatt 70 seawolf17 70 Frayed Knot 70 Johnny Dickshot 64 Yancy Street Gang 63 SwitchHitter 62 metirish 62 metsmarathon 61 Nymr83 60 ScarletKnight41 60 Vic Sage 60 Iubitul 58 Edgy DC 58 TheOldMole 57 DocTee 57

Benjamin Grimm Feb 02 2006 07:38 AM

I know that nobody's terribly interested in this, including myself. Here's the latest update, to reflect the departure of Jae Seo. Old Mole and Vic Sage were most confident that Seo would be gone, and now reap the benefits by moving up in the standings. Rotblatt, Namor, and Marathon were sure Seo wouldn't go, and drop accordingly. 86 Dreamer 69 rpackrat 69 Frayed Knot 68 seawolf17 66 Johnny Dickshot 66 TheOldMole 65 Vic Sage 64 Yancy Street Gang 61 Rotblatt 60 metirish 60 Edgy DC 60 SwitchHitter 56 ScarletKnight41 56 DocTee 53 Iubitul 52 metsmarathon 51 Nymr83 50 Cameron Floyd Glavine Looper Matsui Mientkiewicz Milledge Piazza Seo Trachsel Points metirish 0 10 10 4 8 10 4 2 4 8 60 Frayed Knot 4 9 9 7 4 9 8 8 4 6 68 Edgy DC 3 9 3 4 5 10 8 7 6 5 60 Yancy Street Gang 2 8 7 6 4 10 6 7 4 7 61 Johnny Dickshot 5 10 5 7 2 10 10 5 6 6 66 Vic Sage 5 7 7 2 3 9 9 9 7 6 64 rpackrat 5 8 8 7 4 9 10 8 3 7 69 86 Dreamer 9 10 10 5 1 10 10 8 3 3 69 Rotblatt 10 10 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 60 Nymr83 1 10 10 0 0 7 7 5 0 10 50 SwitchHitter 0 10 10 2 6 8 6 4 2 8 56 ScarletKnight41 5 7 6 4 2 5 9 8 3 7 56 metsmarathon 3 8 3 7 2 10 10 0 0 8 51 Iubitul 5 9 3 7 2 6 10 1 2 7 52 DocTee 6 9 4 2 2 9 8 4 3 6 53 seawolf17 10 7 7 3 3 10 3 10 3 10 66 TheOldMole 4 9 7 3 4 5 9 7 9 8 65 Average 4.53 8.82 7.00 4.12 3.06 8.65 7.47 6.06 3.47 7.18

cooby Feb 02 2006 08:35 AM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I know that nobody's terribly interested in this, including myself. A good prize might get them more worked up about it, Yancy

Benjamin Grimm Feb 02 2006 08:51 AM

How about a date with Lisa Loeb, or whatever her name is?

cooby Feb 02 2006 08:54 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Feb 02 2006 08:59 AM

That's one contest I'd try to lose on purpose

Benjamin Grimm Feb 02 2006 08:57 AM

Hey, we both have 1969 Mets sitting on our heads!

cooby Feb 02 2006 08:58 AM

Yeah, what's up with Jerry Grote? Is he #2, maybe?

Edgy MD Apr 27 2006 05:20 PM

Was this scoring final. This was a good idea, if cumbersome for Yancy.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2006 05:33 PM

I guess it is final. Nobody on the chart left since Seo was traded.

Benjamin Grimm Apr 27 2006 05:34 PM

So packrat and Dreamer are the winners. Congratulations!

Edgy MD Apr 28 2006 03:53 PM

Bumped from the predictions forum to honor the winners.