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Let's Take a Look at It

AG/DC Jan 02 2008 10:21 AM

Don't get me wrong, because I don't like the Church trade at all, either, but I think the fallout from the trade is long-term, and I think they returns will be more or less even this year. I also don't think we've necessarily stood still. Sometimes, with Reyes, Wright, Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, Smith and Mulvey all getting a year older, it might have been a good time to stand still. Obviously, the old guys get older also, and obviously, the olderness of some should give serious pause. Position 2007 Starter Age Season Quality Relative to Career Trajectory 2008 Starter Age Most Likely Outcome Catcher Lo Duca 35 Poor Schneider 31 Wash First Base Delgado 35 Poor Delgado 36 Wash Second Base Valentin 37 Poor Castillo 32 Wash Castillo 31 Even Shortstop Reyes 24 Poor Reyes 25 Improvement Third Base Wright 24 Good Wright 25 Wash Left Field Alou 40 Even* Alou 41 Fall Back Center Field Beltran 30 Slightly Poor Beltran 31 Slight Improvement Right Field Green 34 Poor Church 29 Improvement Pitcher 1 Glavine 41 Good Martinez 36 Wash Pitcher 2 Hernandez 41 Good Hernandez 42 Strong Fall Back Pitcher 3 Maine 27 Good Maine 28 Wash Pitcher 4 Perez 25 Good Perez 26 Wash Pitcher 5 Pelfrey (et al) 23 Poor Pelfrey 24 Improvement Closer Wagner 35 Even Wagner 36 Fall Back * Alou hit better than his career trajectory suggested he would, but missed even more time than expected. A crude numeric framing would look something like this: Reyes improvment: 2 points Alou fall back: -2 points Beltran slight improvment: 1 point Church improvement: 2 points Hernandez strong fall back: -3 points Pelfrey Improvement: 2 points Wagner fall back: -2 points Obviously, many of these --- or all of them --- might not happen, but we can hope tjat luck will tend to balance out. I even think we have a right to hope that Alou deserves only a -1 because he's unlikely to miss quite so much time. I don't count the rest of the pen because pens are too ephemeral to be predicatable. Anyhow, that all adds up to a net wash

metirish Jan 02 2008 10:41 AM

Nice work, are these musings your own?, I think Maine and Perez will improve although I see our season being a wash.

AG/DC Jan 02 2008 10:55 AM

My own mostly, but based on two disputable, though evenly applied, principles: 1) Players tend to get better as they approach 28-32, stay the same during that period, and get worse thereafter. For pitchers and catchers, they tend to plateau earlier, like 27-31. 2) Players who do better than their career trajectory one year will tend to revert back toward it the next. Players doing worse, will tend to improve. Obviously, volatile careers like Perez's are tough to track, and he may well be returning to his early form. A guy like Hernandez, old and coming off a better-than-expected year --- not to mention spending the last several weeks on the DL and in the pen --- are very suspicious performers indeed, and that's why I docked him three points. The preparedness of our reinforcements sure looks like a key to me.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 02 2008 10:57 AM

I see the bench taking a bath in 08. No way they get the same results out of Easley, Anderson or Gotay, and lest we forget, we saw the real Endy Chavez in 07 and not in 06. And you just can't count on Castro's health.

Centerfield Jan 02 2008 11:01 AM

Is AG/DC new?

metirish Jan 02 2008 11:07 AM

AG/DC wrote: My own mostly, but based on two disputable, though evenly applied, principles: 1) Players tend to get better as they approach 28-32, stay the same during that period, and get worse thereafter. For pitchers and catchers, they tend to plateau earlier, like 27-31. . I think HGH and steroids put paid to that theory.

AG/DC Jan 02 2008 11:12 AM

Centerfield wrote: Is AG/DC new? As if using a table isn't a dead giveaway.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 02 2008 11:19 AM

I can only assume that this means you've been named Attorney General?

AG/DC Jan 02 2008 11:23 AM

No, I couldn't get past the hearing stage.

Centerfield Jan 02 2008 11:40 AM

AG/DC wrote: ="Centerfield"]Is AG/DC new? As if using a table isn't a dead giveaway. I don't make assumptions. It makes an ASS out of U and MPTIONS.

Vic Sage Jan 02 2008 11:54 AM Re: Let's Take a Look at It

="AG/DC"]Don't get me wrong, because I don't like the Church trade at all, either, but I think the fallout from the trade is long-term, and I think they returns will be more or less even this year. I also don't think we've necessarily stood still. Sometimes, with Reyes, Wright, Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, Smith and Mulvey all getting a year older, it might have been a good time to stand still. Obviously, the old guys get older also, and obviously, the olderness of some should give serious pause. Position 2007 Starter Age Season Quality Relative to Career Trajectory 2008 Starter Age Most Likely Outcome Catcher Lo Duca 35 Poor Schneider 31 Wash First Base Delgado 35 Poor Delgado 36 Wash Second Base Valentin 37 Poor Castillo 32 Wash Castillo 31 Even Shortstop Reyes 24 Poor Reyes 25 Improvement Third Base Wright 24 Good Wright 25 Wash Left Field Alou 40 Even* Alou 41 Fall Back Center Field Beltran 30 Slightly Poor Beltran 31 Slight Improvement Right Field Green 34 Poor Church 29 Improvement Pitcher 1 Glavine 41 Good Martinez 36 Wash Pitcher 2 Hernandez 41 Good Hernandez 42 Strong Fall Back Pitcher 3 Maine 27 Good Maine 28 Wash Pitcher 4 Perez 25 Good Perez 26 Wash Pitcher 5 Pelfrey (et al) 23 Poor Pelfrey 24 Improvement Closer Wagner 35 Even Wagner 36 Fall Back * Alou hit better than his career trajectory suggested he would, but missed even more time than expected. A crude numeric framing would look something like this: Reyes improvment: 2 points Alou fall back: -2 points Beltran slight improvment: 1 point Church improvement: 2 points Hernandez strong fall back: -3 points Pelfrey Improvement: 2 points Wagner fall back: -2 points Obviously, many of these --- or all of them --- might not happen, but we can hope tjat luck will tend to balance out. I even think we have a right to hope that Alou deserves only a -1 because he's unlikely to miss quite so much time. I don't count the rest of the pen because pens are too ephemeral to be predicatable. Anyhow, that all adds up to a net wash I'd evaluate it this way: Lineup: C: LoDuca v Schneider = slight improvement (less than average) even in decline, LoDuca may be equivalent to Schneider offensively, but an upgrade in defense is likely 1b: Delgado (35) v Delgado (36)= decline continues (less than average) Delgado is trending downward 2b: Valentin/Gotay/Easley/Castillo (31) v Castillo (32) = even (average) Last year's melange was adequate; Castillo won't be much of an upgrade SS: Reyes (24) v Reyes (25) = slight improvement (better than average) It remains to be seen which was the aberration: April or October? 3B: Wright (24) v Wright (25) = slight improvement (MVP candidate) I can't imagine Wright getting much better, but it's possible LF: Alou (40) / Chavez (29) / Gomez (21) v Alou (41) / Chavez (30) / Easley 38 / Anderson (34) = even (less than average) LF was a black hole for the 78 games it was played by anyone other than Alou. It is unlikely to improve with the current roster. CF: Beltran (30) v Beltran (31) = even (better than average) "Slightly Poor"? Only in comparison to has career year. Otherwise, his numbers were better than his careeer averages across the board. I'd expect more of the same. RF: Green (34) v Church (29) / = improvement (average) Church will be an upgrade, but with his impotence against LHP, he's a platoon player without a platoon partner. Pitching P1: Glavine v Pedro = even (below average #1) How do you rate Glavine's season as "good", based on an ERA+ of 96? Pedro is a total questoin mark at this point. P2: Maine (26) v Maine (27) = even (average #2) While still young, Maine's 2nd half slide last year doesn't leave me confident about projecting any improvement for him this season. P3: Perez (25) v Perez (26) = even (better than average #3) Perez had the best year of any Mets starter last season, and is still young enough to continue to improve. However, his career has had such radical swings that its hard to assume anything about Perez in 08. P4: El Duque (?) / Pedro /etal. v El Duque (?) = even (better than average #4) El Duque was great when healthy, but he missed 8-10 starts with various ailments, giving starts to pitchers like Chan Ho Park, Vargas and Brian Lawrence... and he will likely do so again P5: Sosa (30) / Pelfrey (23)/etal. v Pelfrey (24) / ? = improvement (average) I've yet to see anything that suggests any of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey or any of their other young pitchers are ready to get major league hitters out at a reasonablely reliable rate, so this is pure wishful thinking. If Sanchez comes back strong, the bullpen will be better. If he doesn't, it won't. Last year's bench was pretty good but this year's bench still needs to fill some holes.

AG/DC Jan 02 2008 12:21 PM

Delgado is trending downward Of course he is. I'd be a fool to think otherwise. I only meant to suggest that last year's drop was so precipitous, that the most likely outcome is him maintianing that level next year, based on principle number two. It remains to be seen which was the aberration: April or October? Yeah, but the Reyes season as a whole was a backslide. I can't imagine Wright getting much better, but it's possible It's unreasonable to think that's most likely, though, isn't it? "Slightly Poor"? Only in comparison to has career year. Otherwise, his numbers were better than his careeer averages across the board. I'd expect more of the same. Maybe, but I was looking at him at a peak point in his career when we are supposed to produce better than our career numbers. How do you rate Glavine's season as "good", based on an ERA+ of 96? Pedro is a total questoin mark at this point. You're misreading me. I rate his season as "good' only relative to his career trajectory. While still young, Maine's 2nd half slide last year doesn't leave me confident about projecting any improvement for him this season. Agreed. I've yet to see anything that suggests any of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey or any of their other young pitchers are ready to get major league hitters out at a reasonablely reliable rate, so this is pure wishful thinking. It's pretty historically grounded that young pitchers tend to get better. The idea that Pelfrey will improve on his ERA and workload is as bankable as anything else.

smg58 Jan 02 2008 02:19 PM

I think I'm more optimistic than most people here about Delgado bouncing back to some degree. I also think the bullpen will improve a bit simply because it will be hard to replace Mota and Sele with pitchers who are as bad as they were last year. On the cynical side, I think any improvement we get out of rightfield will depend on finding a righthanded bat to go with Church. That being said, I think AG's premise that we've basically broken even to this point is spot on, and I pretty much agree with everything else.