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Johann Santana prediction thread

Benjamin Grimm Jan 21 2008 06:53 AM

Okay, everyone. Let's pony up and put our money where our mouths are. What's going to happen with Johann Santana? Speak up! Here's my own fearless prediction: The Mets will complete a deal for Johann Santana before the Twins open their spring camp. The deal will include a 72-hour negotiating window, and the Mets will sign him for six guaranteed years, plus two additional option years that will automatically vest based on innings pitched. Going to Minnesota will be the following players: Pelfrey, Mulvey, Martinez, Sosa, and Chavez. The deal will be beneficial to the Mets, at least in the short term, as Santana will win 16 games in 2008. Over the long term, the Twins will be okay too, as some of the young players will prove to be productive big leaguers, while others won't amount to much. Your turn now. GO!

AG/DC Jan 21 2008 08:00 AM

That's a pretty good prediction. I'm opting out though. I can't get too close to big-time trade talk.

Farmer Ted Jan 21 2008 08:06 AM

The Minnesota Newsies starting to latch on hard to this story now. The Johan Santana trade discussions have reached a quiet but crucial stage. The Twins know what they can get. And they realize none of the packages will appease their fans, who might never forgive them for trading the two-time Cy Young Award winner. For now, the Twins and the three most interested Santana suitors -- the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox -- are regrouping, trying to decide how far beyond their comfort zones they will go to close this deal. The end result might leave some Twins fans gasping for breath. Lately, the Twins have seemed most intrigued with the Mets' offer. The Mets are offering some combination of the following five players: Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey. Minneapolis Star Tribune

AG/DC Jan 21 2008 08:11 AM

I've been told many times that the Mets don't have the ponies to get this done.

Fman99 Jan 21 2008 08:23 AM

Ugh, I hate winter. This does not give me my baseball fix. In fact I'm bored stupid by this Santana business. I predict that blogs and newspapers will beat this story to death like the proverbial dead pony and that come Opening Day, Santana is taking the hill for the Twins and Petey for the Mets.

AG/DC Jan 21 2008 08:29 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 21 2008 08:29 AM

Hey, let's not cross pony metaphors within the thread. I said pony first. My meaning stands.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 21 2008 08:29 AM

I'm rooting for Twins to sign Santana. Happy ending for all. Too scared to make a prediction.

AG/DC Jan 21 2008 08:30 AM

Word. And then the Mets rock him for eight runs in four innings in game one of the 2008 World Series.

DocTee Jan 21 2008 08:36 AM

Anybody willing to pony up some cash to make this interesting?

metsmarathon Jan 21 2008 09:05 AM

i'm kinda hoping fred is...

Benjamin Grimm Jan 21 2008 09:07 AM

DocTee wrote: Anybody willing to pony up some cash to make this interesting? Nobody's even willing to make a prediction when there's nothing at stake.

d'Kong76 Jan 21 2008 09:18 AM

Can someone look into their crystal ball and see if F-Mart is the next Alex Rodriguez and not Escobar or Ochoa? Mine's in the shop.

Fman99 Jan 21 2008 10:02 AM

AG/DC wrote: Hey, let's not cross pony metaphors within the thread. I said pony first. My meaning stands. I suppose the 'baloney pony' will have to remain in the barn on this one then.

metirish Jan 21 2008 10:16 AM

Twins will resign Santana to a 6 year $1120 millon cantract.

Frayed Knot Jan 21 2008 10:27 AM

metirish wrote: Twins will resign Santana to a 6 year $1120 millon cantract. I know MLB is making a lot of money these day, but $186 million per year sounds kinda high to me. I'm of the mind that Santana will be traded prior to the start of ST and I'm increasingly convinced it will be to the Mets. Hopefully they'll do a deal because it's a good one rather than out of desperation.

Gwreck Jan 21 2008 12:51 PM

Twins will hold firm on their demands (ie. when Washington was trying to trade Soriano) and nobody will bite. Santana will finish out the 2008 season with Minnesota with Cy Young-caliber numbers and become a free agent, and then get several bucketloads of money from either the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox for a long term contract.

smg58 Jan 21 2008 06:17 PM

Gwreck wrote: Twins will hold firm on their demands (ie. when Washington was trying to trade Soriano) and nobody will bite. Santana will finish out the 2008 season with Minnesota with Cy Young-caliber numbers and become a free agent, and then get several bucketloads of money from either the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox for a long term contract. I'm predicting this, and rooting for it too. It won't help the Mets this year, but if Santana and Sabathia both hit the market the Mets should be able to land one and maintain an intact farm system.

Willets Point Jan 21 2008 08:19 PM

The Yankees will trade Kyle Farnsworth for Santana. Santana will win 28 games and the Cy Young Award as the Yankees go 121-41 and sweep through the playoffs. Santana will be 4-0 in the postseason and will be first to hoist the Yankees 27th World Series trophy in victory.

Gwreck Jan 22 2008 06:30 AM

At a certain point, that stuff stops being clever and just becomes annoying.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 23 2008 11:43 AM

Jon Heyman, on SI.com, is saying that the Twins like Gomez more than they like Martinez.

Nymr83 Jan 23 2008 11:48 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Jon Heyman, on SI.com, is saying that the Twins like Gomez more than they like Martinez. good, they can have him. with chavez signed for 2 more years now Gomez's role isn't going to be much anyway.

AG/DC Jan 23 2008 12:02 PM

And he's never going to be better than Jason Tyner.

AG/DC Jan 26 2008 04:00 PM

Twins sign Justin Morneau for six years, $80 million. how this effects Santana's status is, well, fun to speculate.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 26 2008 05:27 PM

Yes. Does it mean that the Twins are spending? Or that they've spent?

AG/DC Jan 26 2008 05:41 PM

I like how anti-revenue-sharing forces (Yankee fans, mostly) continue to argue that susidized teams eat the subsidy.

Edgy MD Jan 28 2008 07:55 AM

Newsday is now describing a Met-Twin deal for Santana as "likely" and "within 10 days."

MFS62 Jan 28 2008 08:36 AM

If the rumors are correct, and the Mets will be giving up several young starters in the deal, look for them to sign a veteran innings eater before the Santana deal goes down. Later

Benjamin Grimm Jan 28 2008 09:03 AM

Here's the key paragraph from that article by Ken Davidoff: The Mets are willing to give up multiple prospects for Santana, who wants a six-year, $150-million extension in return for waiving his no-trade clause. To date, however, the Mets have not relented on giving up minor-league outfielder Fernando Martinez in addition to outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. Those are pretty much the same names we heard a few weeks ago. What Davidoff doesn't make clear is which side is expected to bend in the next ten days. Do the Mets include Martinez, or will the Twins withdraw their insistence that he be included? I'm not crazy about losing Guerra and Mulvey at once, but I probably would have said the same thing a dozen years ago about Isringhausen and Pulsipher. At least they'd be keeping Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez, so the Mets wouldn't be short on young pitching. But if Gomez and Martinez follow Milledge out of town, the Mets are short on young outfielders. Is Endy the fourth outfielder in 2008, and Pagan the fifth? Are there any free-agent replacements for Alou who will be available next winter? And does that leave them deep enough for this season? I'm hoping they can avoid a situation where this year's version of Michael Tucker or Ben Johnson is getting a lot of outfield starts in 2008.

Fman99 Jan 28 2008 09:05 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Here's the key paragraph from that article by Ken Davidoff: The Mets are willing to give up multiple prospects for Santana, who wants a six-year, $150-million extension in return for waiving his no-trade clause. To date, however, the Mets have not relented on giving up minor-league outfielder Fernando Martinez in addition to outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. Those are pretty much the same names we heard a few weeks ago. What Davidoff doesn't make clear is which side is expected to bend in the next ten days. Do the Mets include Martinez, or will the Twins withdraw their insistence that he be included? I'm not crazy about losing Guerra and Mulvey at once, but I probably would have said the same thing a dozen years ago about Isringhausen and Pulsipher. At least they'd be keeping Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez, so the Mets wouldn't be short on young pitching. But if Gomez and Martinez follow Milledge out of town, the Mets are short on young outfielders. Is Endy the fourth outfielder in 2008, and Pagan the fifth? Are there any free-agent replacements for Alou who will be available next winter? And does that leave them deep enough for this season? I'm hoping they can avoid a situation where this year's version of Michael Tucker or Ben Johnson is getting a lot of outfield starts in 2008. Seriously. Someone get "Ice" Williams on the phone, just in case.

Edgy MD Jan 28 2008 09:28 AM

Seems to me that we're as likely to soon enough need those pitchers as those hitters. More, I think.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 28 2008 09:41 AM

Maybe. But Santana is coming back in the deal. So you have four starters under 30: Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez, all capable of starting in 2008. Add Pedro and Orlando Hernandez, plus Sosa, there should be plenty of starting pitchers available in 2008. They would need to find somebody for 2009, though. Pedro or Hernandez may or may not come back, but even if they do, they'll be one year older and one year less reliable. But I think the seven starters the Mets would have in the fold for 2008 would be sufficient.

Edgy MD Jan 28 2008 09:45 AM

Yeah, I'm looking at beyond 2008. Things fall apart.

Edgy MD Jan 28 2008 09:47 AM

I also wonder if --- though we're not hearing it --- Maine or Perez might go in the package. They're going to need somebody ready to step into Santana's place in the rotation. Pelfrey maybe.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 28 2008 09:53 AM

That's been my contention all along. I mean, if Humber and Pelfrey aren't reeling in the big fish I can't imagine why Omar wouldn't put either OP or Maine on the hook. I mean, you may hate it but that's how it's done.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 28 2008 09:55 AM

I thought about that too. Maine or Perez would fit the bill of a "major league ready" player that the Twins want, and it might be the sweetener to get the deal done. But it also means widening the gap that Santana is supposed to fill. Sure, Santana will replace Glavine, but who, then, replaces Maine or Perez? (Actually, I guess Santana replaces Maine/Perez and Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse replaces Glavine.)

soupcan Jan 28 2008 09:55 AM

Here's the Post article... REPORT: SANTANA TRADE IMMINENT; METS HAVE EDGE By MIKE PUMA January 28, 2008 -- The end could finally be near in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. And the winner is . . . according to a report yesterday in the St. Paul Pioneer Press, the answer likely will be revealed within the next 10 days, before pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Of the three main contenders for the ace left-hander, the Mets have emerged as the front-runner mostly based on their open willingness to deal top prospects to the Twins, but the Yankees and Red Sox still lurk in the shadows. A Mets official said last night there's no way of knowing what Twins GM Bill Smith is thinking, but the official sounded optimistic the Mets could close the deal for Santana. The Mets' package likely would include pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra and outfielder Carlos Gomez. The Twins also have sought outfielder Fernando Martinez, but Mets GM Omar Minaya hasn't been willing to include Martinez in a trade. On Friday, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman stated his position loud and clear, telling a gathering of fans at William Paterson University in New Jersey that he'd like to pass on Santana. "My strong recommendation is we stick with our young pitching staff and keep it in-house," Cashman said. "That's my recommendation, and we've fought hard to take one step back to take two giant steps forward." The Twins have sought a package from the Yankees that would include Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy and Jeff Marquez. In recent weeks Cashman has indicated the Yankees would listen if Minnesota lowered the asking price. Of course, the possibility also looms that Hank Steinbrenner will ignore Cashman's recommendation and do whatever is needed to land Santana, who is seeking a $150 million contract extension over six years. He can become a free agent after this season. The Red Sox remain a dark horse, with a package that would include pitcher Jon Lester and either Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury. mpuma@nypost.com

Benjamin Grimm Jan 28 2008 02:18 PM

And this is the view from Minnesota. It's from the Twins Mailbag on MLB.com. Kelly Thesier is the Twins' version of Marty Noble, although she's a bit cuter. (Sorry, Marty.) Kelly Thesier wrote: What's taking so long with the Santana deal? None of the three teams -- the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets -- have given in through the first few months and it seems their offers are not going to change now. Do you have any idea about finish for this marathon? -- Chris F., Grant, Minn. Santana remains the hot topic in Minnesota, but it appears that the solution to the saga is right around the corner. Club officials indicated to me this weekend that this situation will be settled within the week. I think the Twins are at the point where they will have teams give them their final offers for Santana and decide how they want to proceed -- whether that's completing a trade now or heading to Spring Training with their ace. The overwhelming consensus is that a trade will occur. The Morneau and Cuddyer deals had some people thinking that the Twins possibly could re-sign their ace. But one of the sticking points throughout the offseason has been the contract that Santana is seeking. The most recent estimates were that Santana wants a six-year extension worth around $150 million. That's far beyond the realm of what the Twins are willing to spend on Santana. While some teams have hesitated to pay that and give up prospects, it seems that all three sides -- the Twins, Santana's camp and the other teams involved -- could be more willing to compromise a little with Spring Training now less than three weeks away. Right now it still appears that the Mets are the frontrunners in this race. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear his position on Santana this weekend while speaking to group at William Paterson University in New Jersey. Cashman said that he'd like to pass on Santana and stick with his young pitchers. And the Red Sox have remained steady in their offers with no real news on that front. No team is considered to be out of contention and so far, Twins GM Bill Smith has not tipped his hand to what may occur. It's still a waiting game, but one that finally may be coming to an end.

Elster88 Jan 28 2008 05:16 PM

I'm very excited.

Zvon Jan 29 2008 05:16 AM

I predict whatevers goin down is gonna go down today.

metirish Jan 29 2008 07:00 AM

Bill Madden thinks the Bedard to Seattle rumor will make things more difficult for the Mets, with what Seattle are expected to send to Baltimore in that trade Madden thinks the the Twins will be under pressure from their fans to get similar quality in return for Santana. With what some believe is a solid return for the Orioles, the Twins likely will be under pressure from their fans to get quality in exchange for Santana. Several baseball officials said Monday they believed the Mets ultimately would get Santana, but they might have to "flood the deal" with players to satisfy the Twins in the wake of the likely Bedard trade. A Santana deal could be done within 10 days, the St. Paul Pioneer Press recently reported. Outfielder Carlos Gomez almost certainly would be the centerpiece of a Met offer along with prospects such as Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets have been reluctant to include 19-year-old outfielder Fernando Martinez, who hit .271 in 60 games for Double-A Binghamton last year. Bill Madden

AG/DC Jan 29 2008 07:25 AM

It's funny how these prospects are paired up Pelfrey or Humber? Gomez or Martinez? Mulvey or Guerra? But while that first pair may be 85% similar (for the sake of argument), the second is more like 70% and the third maybe 55%. Mulvey and Guerra are very different beasts. And if we have a choice of which one to keep, we should make that choice very deliberately.

metirish Jan 29 2008 07:44 AM

From ESPN. The Mets are believed to have proposed a package of Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. The Twins would also like the Mets' No. 1 prospect, Fernando Martinez, but Mets GM Omar Minaya hasn't been willing to include Martinez in a trade. Ryan Church could also be in the mix. Church?

AG/DC Jan 29 2008 07:45 AM

Curiouser and curiouser.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 29 2008 08:04 AM

It explains the lack of a press conference perfectly.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 29 2008 08:08 AM

Okay, so the Twins liked Church better than Milledge, so Omar trades Lasty for Churchy so he'd have a better shot at Santana. I can buy that, I guess. But if Gomez is also going to Minnesota (and even if he isn't) doesn't that leave us short a starting outfielder just a few weeks before spring training starts? Or does Endy get promoted? Or Pagan? (Martinez certainly won't.) Or do they pick up one of the many remaining free agents off the scrap heap, like Kenny Lofton or someone like that?

DocTee Jan 29 2008 08:12 AM

They bring Green back.

AG/DC Jan 29 2008 09:23 AM

Yeah, it's most interesting if Church gets Gomez off the table. Then it's Pagan and Chavez keeping a seat warm for Go-Go. This would really show some long-term execution by Minaya --- along the lines of acquiring Xavier Nady two years ago because he knew he was going for a slugger along the lines of Delgado and Ramirez, but didn't know if he was going to land a firstbaseman or outfielder, so he got Nady in the meantime to play the position he didn't fill. Whether it's the right move is another matter.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 29 2008 10:25 AM

The latest update from Newsday's Ken Davidoff includes the following: With the Yankees and Red Sox all but out of the bidding, the Mets can continue to insist on holding on to outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, leaving their offer at outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. The Twins appear determined to trade Santana before camp. If it's four for one, and those are the four, then I'm in favor of that deal. They're keeping Pelfrey, and they're keeping Martinez.

sharpie Jan 29 2008 10:35 AM

Yeah, I would do that deal too.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jan 29 2008 10:42 AM

Yup. But this is the Mets. It's gotta be bloodier than that. The contract extension will also be a doozy.

metirish Jan 29 2008 10:48 AM

If I'm a Twins fan I'm wondering why we ain't getting a major league readyfor 08 impact player in the deal such as the Red Sox seem to want to offer.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 29 2008 10:57 AM

The Mets can offer to throw in Rick Ownbey.

smg58 Jan 29 2008 11:03 AM

For one thing, the Twins will be getting more quantity in the Mets deal. Plus, without Santana and Hunter and given the rosters the Indians and Tigers have, major league readiness is not as important as total overall talent. On the Mets side of things, a deal that does not include Martinez or Pelfrey would have to be considered a win, even if the trade involves four other players. But with the contract Santana will get, I think you have offer what you think one year of Santana is worth, and not more than that.

Mr. Zero Jan 29 2008 11:15 AM

Santana turns down last ditch offer from Twins. 100 mil. for 5 years.

soupcan Jan 29 2008 11:21 AM

Mr. Zero wrote: Santana turns down last ditch offer from Twins. 100 mil. for 5 years. The man turned down $20 mil per? I take that as him just wanting to get the fuck out of Dodge. If I'm a Twins fan I'm pissed. Good riddance.

Edgy MD Jan 29 2008 11:21 AM

Whoah.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 29 2008 11:23 AM

The man is clearly looking for a lot of cheese.

Frayed Knot Jan 29 2008 11:35 AM

What it most likely means is that he thinks he can get a 6th (or 7th) year elsewhere. A scary proposition for whichever team trades for him.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 29 2008 11:41 AM

Could today be the day? Twins ask for last offers, with decision coming soon By Buster Olney ESPN The Magazine Executives involved in the Johan Santana trade talks expect the Minnesota Twins to make their decision soon, perhaps as early as Tuesday, on what they intend to do with the left-handed superstar, after the team asked on Monday for last and best offers from teams involved in the trade talks. The Twins could weigh the offers and decide to keep Santana into spring training, in the hope that a more aggressive market for the left-hander develops. For instance: If Andy Pettitte's involvement in the Roger Clemens-Mitchell report case seems to be distracting the left-hander, Hank Steinbrenner -- who has been the most prominent member of the Yankees organization in favor of making a Santana trade -- could spur the team to give the Twins the package they have requested, which includes pitchers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Or if the Red Sox suffered multiple pitching injuries, they might push for a Santana deal. Or the Twins, who just signed Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to extensions totaling $104 million, might prefer to turn the page and make a deal now. The Mets have the most obvious need for Santana and reason to be the most aggressive, and have indicated a willingness to offer a package of four or five players. The Red Sox have talked in the past about deals built around either pitcher Jon Lester or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Two sources involved in the discussions say the Red Sox have indicated they won't trade Lester, and another highly placed source says Lester remains on the table. A fourth says the Red Sox are willing to deal Lester only in a package with little window dressing -- in other words, Lester and Coco Crisp and little else. It's unclear, as well, whether the Red Sox would be willing to offer Santana a deal close to the six-year, $150 million package he will seek in order to approve the trade. Santana has a full no-trade clause and will want an extension in order to approve the deal. The Twins offered him a four-year, $80 million deal, beyond the $13.25 million he is slated to make in 2008. The Yankees appear to be not presently engaged whatsoever in the Santana talks.

smg58 Jan 29 2008 12:09 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: What it most likely means is that he thinks he can get a 6th (or 7th) year elsewhere. A scary proposition for whichever team trades for him. Barry Zito got 7, so why should he settle for 5? Plus, he has a no-trade clause, so whoever deals for him has to give him a good reason not to test the open market or he'll probably stay put.

Edgy MD Jan 29 2008 12:33 PM

Barry Zito for seven was stoopit, and I hope not a new standard.

Fman99 Jan 29 2008 01:52 PM

Our pal Buster has an update, of sorts, on this situation, saying that the Mets offer is Gomez, Humber and two others. I suspect that'd be Guerra and Mulvey. Any deal where the Mets keep Pelfrey, Church and F-Mart is a good one IMHO.

Fman99 Jan 29 2008 02:33 PM

Fman99 wrote: Our pal Buster has an update, of sorts, on this situation, saying that the Mets offer is Gomez, Humber and two others. I suspect that'd be Guerra and Mulvey. Any deal where the Mets keep Pelfrey, Church and F-Mart is a good one IMHO. I called it!