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From Rob Neyer.
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Today, we turn to the best third basemen of the next five years. As you might recall, I've been ignoring players older than 30, but if there's a time to ignore that rule -- more of a guideline, really -- this is it, because the best player in the American League still has plenty of good seasons ahead of him. Here are my 10 holdovers from 2007; the given age is 2008 seasonal age, while the other numbers are from 2007, including adjusted OPS (which is how the players are sorted) and Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP).
Player .............Age OBP SLG OPS+ WARP
Alex Rodriguez 32 .422 .645 177 11.0
David Wright 25 .416 .546 150 10.6
Miguel Cabrera 25 .401 .565 150 9.2
Aramis Ramirez 30 .366 .473 129 7.3
Chone Figgins 30 .393 .432 117 3.4
Adrian Beltre 29 .319 .482 112 4.5
Garrett Atkins 28 .367 .486 112 3.7
Mark Reynolds 24 .349 .495 111 2.8
Kevin Kouzmanoff 26 .333 .459 109 1.5
Ryan Zimmerman 23 .359 .411 107 7.7
Missing from the list? Chipper Jones (who five years from today will be nearly 41 years old), Ryan Braun (who one month from today will be a left fielder) and Mike Lowell (a gamer who might have three or four good years left in him).
A few notes on that list:
• Last year there was a big space between No. 1 and Nos. 2 and 3, and a big space between Nos. 2 and 3 and everyone else. I expect No. 1 to drop off some, but absent injury I don't see any reason to think the top three this season will be different from last season. Yes, Cabrera will be facing better pitching in the American League. He'll also be a year older and it's hard see him not being one of the three best- hitting third basemen in the majors.
• You might be surprised to see Atkins even with Beltre in OPS+, but that's Coors vs. Safeco. When you consider Beltre's age in years and defense, he's clearly going to be a few slots ahead of Atkins when we make our final list.
• I was surprised to find Kouzmanoff with a higher OPS+ than Zimmermann, but Kouzmanoff's defense numbers are simply horrible, easily the worst on the list. If he doesn't get significantly better with either the bat or the glove, the Padres are left in an awkward position, because a 1.6 WARP means he's significantly worse than an average MLB third baseman.
• Meanwhile, Zimmermann's WARP is fourth-best on the list. This is partially due to his excellent defensive numbers, and I suspect there might also be a difference in how WARP and OPS+ utilize park effects. Regardless, I believe Zimmermann's youth and his defense clearly move him into the top five on our final list. In his three seasons with the Nationals, he has an .861 OPS in road games, which gives you an idea of what he'll do with the Nats moving into their new home this spring.
• It's hard to know what to make of Reynolds. Just one year ago, Baseball America opined, "Reynolds will probably begin the season as the second baseman in Double-A." He did spend roughly a month in Double-A but mostly as a third baseman, and spent the balance of the season with the big club. His defensive stats weren't good, but he has little experience at the position and figures to improve.
With all that (and some other stuff) in mind, our tentative list:
1. Wright
2. Cabrera
3. Rodriguez
4. Zimmermann
5. Beltre
6. Ramirez
7. Reynolds
8. Atkins
9. Andy LaRoche
10. ????
Figgins and Kouzmanoff didn't make this list because Figgins probably will continue to be a utility guy, and because Kouzmanoff's defense last season was just so awful. If he gets a handle on that problem, though, he certainly should rank among the top 10 over the next five years.
As you probably noticed, I've tossed Andy LaRoche into the mix, but there are plenty of other young candidates for the last three or four spots. Kansas City's Alex Gordon struggled last season but is still considered a future star. Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria hasn't played in the majors yet, but he's still quite young, has power and patience, and figures to take over at third this spring. Colorado's Ian Stewart hasn't moved quite as quickly as Longoria (or as quickly as we expected), but soon the Rockies will have to figure out how to use both him and Atkins in the lineup.
Your thoughts?
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