Forum Home

Master Index of Archived Threads


Is that all there is?

AG/DC
Feb 19 2008 09:30 PM

Folks are reporting to spring training and there are no offers for Mike Piazza?

Is this where it ends? Will he get a last hurrah, trying to DH and stay healthy? Will he kill a season with a second-division club?

seawolf17
Feb 20 2008 04:24 AM

Come on, Ducks. Do the right thing.

Benjamin Grimm
Feb 20 2008 07:12 AM

I can't imagine he'd play for the Ducks.

If he can't get a big-league roster spot, he should retire gracefully.

metirish
Feb 20 2008 07:20 AM

There was a picture in the Daily News yesterday showing Mike lugging a small propane tank in Miami, presumably for a barbeque.

seawolf17
Feb 20 2008 07:22 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
If he can't get a big-league roster spot, he should retire gracefully.

By selling out Citibank Park in Central Islip every day for a year.

Benjamin Grimm
Feb 20 2008 07:23 AM

I think that matters to you and about three other people.

seawolf17
Feb 20 2008 07:27 AM

I don't see what's so wrong with Piazza signing with an independent league if he can't get a major-league invite. The guy's a baseball player; if he wants to continue playing baseball, then he might not have any other options, and the Ducks have a solid history with ex-major leaguers on the roster and a dedicated fan base who'd be thrilled to see it happen.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised -- or disappointed -- at all. Why is retiring and playing golf every day more dignified or graceful than continuing to do what you love to do?

Benjamin Grimm
Feb 20 2008 07:39 AM

Well, because after a while the "hanging on" begins to look rather pathetic, as it did with Rickey Henderson.

Mike may feel differently, but if it was me, rather than subjecting my body to the rigors of catching for the equivalent of a low-minor league team, I'd get started on the rest of my life and spend time with the little daughter that he has.

He's already had a Hall-of-Fame career. The only thing he's missing is a World's Championship. And he's not going to get one of those in Central Islip.

AG/DC
Feb 20 2008 07:49 AM

There's a lot not to like in Rickey Henderson, but I think there was nothing pathetic in his efforts to keep playing, and I was disappointed when he eventually stopped.

Why would you be spending time with Mike Piazza's daughter? Yee.

TheOldMole
Feb 20 2008 07:56 AM

Not saying he should do it, but if he sells out the park every day, that would be an indication it matters to more than three people.

AG/DC
Feb 20 2008 07:59 AM

Not saying he's slacking, but that's only the third Molepost since February 1.

Benjamin Grimm
Feb 20 2008 08:01 AM

Piazza's presence would matter to more than three people.

It's the Ducks selling out their games that I don't think many people would care about.

I don't imagine that Mike Piazza is having wet dreams about selling out a little ballpark in Islip.

Frayed Knot
Feb 20 2008 08:01 AM

Also no jobs right now for Bonds, Sosa, or Clemens.
Under different circustances that could have made for one helluva HoF class in 2013.

Of course under different circumstances maybe some or all of them would still have jobs ... or maybe would have hung it up years ago.

seawolf17
Feb 20 2008 09:24 AM

I'm not saying that... but I am saying that he can be a marquee hero again, or he can be a part-time DH in Kansas City. I'd rather be a marquee hero in the Atlantic League than a fading superstar, but I don't really have that option myself.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Feb 20 2008 09:43 AM

Shawn Green also appears to be packing it in. He's said he wants only a job in SoCal, and the Dodgers and Angels have so far resisted employing him.

In unrelated news, who is that guy up there with the taped-up bat? Kingman?

Benjamin Grimm
Feb 20 2008 09:51 AM

Looks like the Bad Dude to me.

attgig
Feb 22 2008 10:29 AM

Edgardo Alfonzo is a invite to the Texas Rangers hoping to win utility job. during the winter he hit .345/.414/.525 in 139 at-bats in Venezuela...enough to get an invite.

Maybe green and piazza should've played some winter league ball.

AG/DC
Feb 22 2008 10:31 AM

Jason Tyner got signed to a minor league deal by Cleveland.

Once you get that first homer out of the way, it's smooth sailing.

Nymr83
Feb 22 2008 12:27 PM

]Maybe green and piazza should've played some winter league ball.


piazza's knees probably don't need that. i'm shocked hehasnt caught on somewhere yet.

Frayed Knot
Feb 24 2008 06:12 PM

Bartolo Colon looks like he'll be signing with Boston while Trot Nixon hooks up with Arizona.

But that still leaves a pretty heftly list of the newly unemployed, including hitters:
Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Preston Wilson, Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, Rondell White, Corey Patterson, Ryan Klesko, Julio Franco

and pitchers:
David Wells, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Russ Ortiz, Eric Milton, Aaron Sele, Rodrigo Lopez, Armando Bentiez, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa & Antonio Alfonseca

TransMonk
Feb 24 2008 06:22 PM

Weren't we rumored to have interest in Lofton?

Frayed Knot
Feb 24 2008 06:29 PM

Not that I know of.
They're really looking for a RH bat more than anything. Plus Lofton can't play the field on anywhere near his old level and with Endy around you don't want him for defense either.

Nymr83
Feb 24 2008 07:10 PM

]Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza


throw in Clemens and you've got a great hall of fame class in 5 years.

KC
Feb 24 2008 07:36 PM

Sammy Sosa ain't no hall of famer.

TransMonk
Feb 24 2008 08:05 PM

Found it from Jayson Stark, lost in the Santana scuttle:

Once the Santana trade is done, expect the Mets to swoop into the free-agent market to add an outfielder to replace Carlos Gomez. One name they've kicked around: Kenny Lofton.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3225433

Though, I agree, he doesn't patch up any holes.

Nymr83
Feb 24 2008 08:08 PM

why isn't Sosa a hall of famer?
and if your answer is "steroids," why ARE Bonds and Clemens and who knows how many other from this era who were suspected but never caught like Sosa going to get in?

Nymr83
Feb 24 2008 08:09 PM

Lofton doesn't do shit for this team, they need a power-hitter on the bench. Given that Chavez is on the team that guy need not be a good fielder.

smg58
Feb 24 2008 08:13 PM

Fonzie parlayed a year with the Ducks into a camp invite in Texas this year, so it's not the worst situation if you think you can still play.

Shannon Stewart just got a deal with the Blue Jays.

Lohse is still holding out for a long-term deal, under the assumption that somebody will decide they need a pitcher badly enough before the season starts.

I know there are several teams who don't have better short-term options in centerfield than Patterson or Lofton, so I'm really surprised they're still available.

Nymr83
Feb 24 2008 08:39 PM

Lohse is 28 years old and owns a 95 ERA+ for his career (100 last year)

Gil Meche at age 27, coming off a 99 ERA+ and owning a sub-100 mark for his career to that point got a huge contract from the royals.

Lohse was a more reliable innings eater as well.

Triple Dee
Feb 24 2008 09:12 PM

Nymr83 wrote:
why isn't Sosa a hall of famer?
and if your answer is "steroids," why ARE Bonds and Clemens and who knows how many other from this era who were suspected but never caught like Sosa going to get in?



I think you'll find there's a new criteria when assessing entry; "the extent to which they misled the public balanced against a guestimate of their ability without PEDs"

On this criteria, Bonds is in, Clemens is 50-50 and Sosa, Palmeiro are out

Triple Dee
Feb 24 2008 09:27 PM

Nymr83 wrote:
Lohse is 28 years old and owns a 95 ERA+ for his career (100 last year)

Gil Meche at age 27, coming off a 99 ERA+ and owning a sub-100 mark for his career to that point got a huge contract from the royals.

Lohse was a more reliable innings eater as well.


Carlos Silva also gets a ridiculous contract. Lohse really needs to fire his agent.

metsmarathon
Feb 24 2008 10:22 PM

Triple Dee wrote:
="Nymr83"]why isn't Sosa a hall of famer?
and if your answer is "steroids," why ARE Bonds and Clemens and who knows how many other from this era who were suspected but never caught like Sosa going to get in?



I think you'll find there's a new criteria when assessing entry; "the extent to which they misled the public balanced against a guestimate of their ability without PEDs"

On this criteria, Bonds is in, Clemens is 50-50 and Sosa, Palmeiro are out


without looking at it, i'd say that if clemens were truly in the twilight of his career when he left boston for toronto, and had simply continued with a steady decline of very good drawing down to average starting pitcher, he'd still have put together enough of a hall of fame-y career that he didn't need the ped's to get in. to be considered one of the best ever? yep. but to get in the hall, i think he'd have a shot. basically, i don't think his career would look any worse than glavine's, and would prolly look even better.

but that's without looking at it. i could be very much wrong.

also... who knows how they're gonna vote for pitchers once this current crop of 300-winners and nearly 300 winners passes us by. (and clemens' greatness - albeit due to ped use - has pushed the discussion off for a few years at least) of the pitchers whose age alone does not put them way over hte hill, only pedro is a lock for the hall, and i don't know who's next.

but that's a conversation for another thread, i think...

Nymr83
Feb 24 2008 11:40 PM

you're making big assumptions about when the PED use started, if you only want to go by when he got caught then you can't penalize Sosa who never got caught.

Triple Dee
Feb 25 2008 01:01 AM

Nymr83 wrote:
you're making big assumptions about when the PED use started, if you only want to go by when he got caught then you can't penalize Sosa who never got caught.


If I was to take a wild guess for Sosa, I'd say the 1997/98 off-season

Year Ag OPS+
1990 21 92
1991 22 59
1992 23 99
1993 24 111
1994 25 127
1995 26 121
1996 27 126
1997 28 99
1998 29 160
1999 30 151
2000 31 161
2001 32 203
2002 33 160
2003 34 133
2004 35 113
2005 36 78
2007 38 102

seawolf17
Feb 25 2008 07:23 AM

="Frayed Knot"]Bartolo Colon looks like he'll be signing with Boston while Trot Nixon hooks up with Arizona.

But that still leaves a pretty heftly list of the newly unemployed, including hitters:
Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Preston Wilson, Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, Rondell White, Corey Patterson, Ryan Klesko, Julio Franco

and pitchers:
David Wells, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Russ Ortiz, Eric Milton, Aaron Sele, Rodrigo Lopez, Armando Bentiez, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa & Antonio Alfonseca


Almost everyone on that list is either an outfielder or a DH... and all the pitchers are guys who are fourth starters, middle relievers who won't get important innings, or guys with too many fingers. So why pay for that when you get similar production for less money out of someone from your minor league system?

(Assuming you have guys with extra fingers in your minor league system.)

metsmarathon
Feb 25 2008 08:31 AM

baseball prospectus predicts for the players listed...
(wins above replacement based on pecota weighted means)

hitter 90% mean 10% MORP
bonds 5.0 3.2 1.9 $6.65 M
sosa 3.6 1.6 0.0 $3.00 M
piazza 2.8 1.5 -0.2 $2.40 M
green 3.7 2.0 -0.4 $2.75 M
stewart 4.3 2.7 -0.2 $4.00 M
wilson 2.0 0.9 -0.6 $0.95 M
sanders 1.6 1.2 0.0 $1.80 M
lofton 3.6 2.5 0.6 $3.75 M
white 0.8 0.3 -0.7 $0.50 M
patterson 4.4 3.3 0.8 $5.68 M
klesko 3.2 1.9 0.1 $3.18 M
franco - - - -


baseball prospectus does not yet seem to have the pitchers' pecota cards up, nor do i know if julio franco has intentionally not been predicted, or if they just haven't gotten to him yet.

based on the above, bonds, patterson, and stewart are the best free agents still out there, of those fk listed.

i don't think just anybody can give you 3 warp coming out of the minors, but with twice the at bats, lastings milledge would have, fwiw.

]MORP

Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).
As listed in a player's PECOTA card, a player's MORP includes the major league minimum salary of $380,000 for 2007. Further, in a player's Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 8% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a player's Peak MORP does *not* include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.)

For 2007, a player's MORP is estimated as follows:
1200000*(WARP^1.5) + 380000

Frayed Knot
Feb 25 2008 09:35 AM

seawolf17 wrote:
So why pay for that when you get similar production for less money out of someone from your minor league system?


Not suggesting that anyone should.
And that's a large part of the problem with these guys, that they're so used to being at or near the top of the pay scale it's tough for them to mentally adjust to having to accept less.
As marathon's chart shows, teams are getting smart by not giving them the big bucks.



]nor do i know if julio franco has intentionally not been predicted, or if they just haven't gotten to him yet.


They're still searching for other 49 year olds to use as comps.

metsmarathon
Feb 25 2008 02:41 PM

yay, pecota updates!

hitter 90% mean 10% MORP
wells 5.9 1.5 -0.7 $2.23 M
lohse 5.5 2.4 -0.7 $4.45 M
garcia 4.9 2.5 0.0 $5.15 M
ortiz 1.7 0.5 -1.8 $0.60 M
milton 3.1 1.0 -2.2 $1.13 M
sele 2.2 0.7 -0.5 $1.13 M
lopez 4.0 1.7 -0.9 $2.88 M
benitez 2.7 0.9 -0.8 $1.38 M
rhodes - - - -
mesa 1.2 0.5 -1.4 $0.70 M
alfonseca 2.1 0.6 -0.6 $1.03 M


quite the sorry bunch, and still no julio franco. shocker, no? also, no arthur rhodes card (yet).

Nymr83
Feb 25 2008 02:58 PM

Triple D, when did the following player's PED use start/end?

Year 1 91
2 113
3 100
4 119
5 129
6 131
7 147
8 160
9 149
10 140
11 138
12 141
13 107
14 108
15 85
16 96

I give you Bernie Williams, no evidence except a big jump around age 28, PED user.

metsmarathon
Feb 25 2008 03:27 PM

i would suggest htat if you graphed these, sosa's jump would look much more like a step change than bernie's slope

Nymr83
Feb 25 2008 03:46 PM

then look at Maris' first two seasons as a Yankee compared to the rest of his career.

metsmarathon
Feb 25 2008 04:37 PM

really...?

KC
Feb 25 2008 05:41 PM

KC: Sammy Sosa ain't no hall of famer<<<

Ny: why isn't Sosa a hall of famer?
and if your answer is "steroids," why ARE Bonds and Clemens<<<

Because I said so.

Bonds has started in like three times the number of all-star games that Sosa
has and Clemens was probably a HOF'r before he discovered dancing around
on ESPN in his super-gym proclaiming, "no one is doing this, no one is doing
this."

And that form of arguing you're using like some sort of junior salamander q
wannabe is annoying.

But that's probably just me on all counts so never mind.

Nymr83
Feb 25 2008 05:47 PM

]Because I said so.


riiiiiiight

]Bonds has started in like three times the number of all-star games that Sosa
has and Clemens was probably a HOF'r before he discovered dancing around
on ESPN in his super-gym proclaiming, "no one is doing this, no one is doing
this."


so when you think someone took steroids the question then becomes how great were they abovea nd beyond the normal greatness required for the hall?

]And that form of arguing you're using like some sort of junior salamander q
wannabe is annoying.


how the fuck have i done anything sal-like? you made a statement which i questioned (as well as providing my next question if you gave a certain answer), you've now answered and i've asked a further question, i see no sal-like bait and switch or putting words in your mouth

KC
Feb 25 2008 06:00 PM

I was joking with the, "I said so."

Ny: so when you think someone took steroids<<<

I didn't say that.

Ny: how the fuck have i done anything sal-like?<<<

See above.

Nymr83
Feb 25 2008 07:42 PM

="KC"]
Ny: so when you think someone took steroids<<<

I didn't say that.


you said: "Clemens was probably a HOF'r before he discovered dancing around on ESPN in his super-gym proclaiming, "no one is doing this, no one is doing
this." "

i took that to mean you think he's on the roids but was a HOFer beforehand.

if your reason for Sosa not being a all of famer is not steroid related then what is it, using Sosa's numbers (either standing alone or compared to other who are in and out) as evidence?

KC
Feb 26 2008 04:06 AM

The dancing around refers to the clip they showed on ESPN 7,249 times of
him and Andy doing their super-human old man work out. The audio was
often, "no one is doing this no one is doing this."

Numbers? Sosa started on five all-star teams ... so did Strawberry. Yay.

Triple Dee
Feb 26 2008 06:37 AM

="KC"]The dancing around refers to the clip they showed on ESPN 7,249 times of
him and Andy doing their super-human old man work out. The audio was
often, "no one is doing this no one is doing this."

Numbers? Sosa started on five all-star teams ... so did Strawberry. Yay.


FWIW, Baseball-Reference ranks Sosa approximately at the same level as Mike Piazza in terms of Hall of Fame standard, and significantly higher than McGwire. But I still don't think he'll get in.

Strawberry didn't make the HOF because he only played 2 seasons between 91-99 where he appeared in more than 43 games (and in those he played 63 and 101).

KC
Feb 26 2008 07:35 AM

Yeah, picking Strawberry was my obnoxious way of picking someone close
to home and it sounds good on the surface. A straw argument. Hah.

Sosa's SIM list on bbr is a pretty HOFamey star-studded lineup.

sharpie
Mar 11 2008 08:05 AM

Thinking about Mike Piazza being unsigned led me to thinking about the 2000 NL Champeen Mets and how few of them from that postseason are playing anymore:

Retired/cut/didn't play in MLB in 2007: Kurt Abbott, Benny Agbayani, Edgardo Alfonzo, Mike Bordick, Derek Bell, Dennis Cook, John Franco, Matt Franco, Darryl Hamilton, Lenny Harris, Bobby Jones, Al Leiter, Joe McEwing, Todd Pratt, Rick Reed, Glendon Rusch, Bubba Trammell, Robin Ventura, Turk Wendell, Rick White, Todd Zeile.

That's 21 of them. The remainder:

Armando Benitez (unsigned with less than 3 weeks til Opening Day)
Mike Piazza (unsigned with less than 3 weeks til Opening Day)
Mike Hampton (didn't play in '07 due to injury, already injured in spring training)
Timo Perez (had 90 at-bats with the Tigers last year, is a longshot to go north out of spring training this year)

That leaves only Jay Payton as a definite big-leaguer in 2008. So it goes.

Willets Point
Mar 11 2008 08:52 AM

Bring Benny back from Japan!

sharpie
Mar 11 2008 12:17 PM

Well, Armando Benitez may be around this year as he signs a minor league deal with the Jays.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3287842

seawolf17
Mar 11 2008 01:06 PM

Armando's always been kinda round.