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Carlos Delgado

Benjamin Grimm Feb 20 2008 11:38 AM

Everyone with the Mets is, of course, optimistic that Delgado will bounce back this year. (At least, that's the opinion that they offer to share with the public.) Of course, I hope he does, and I think it's possible. But given his age, there's a pretty strong possibility that his 2008 will be a lot like 2007, or maybe even worse. I read somewhere recently (not sure where... Marty Noble maybe?) that Delgado may very well return to the Mets in 2009. If he has a great season, his contract will automatically vest for $16 million. (It would have to be a really great season for that to happen, and it's not likely.) If his contract doesn't vest, the Mets can choose to renew him at $12 million, or they can buy him out for $4 million. The point here is that the cost differential between keeping him and letting him go is $8 million, and if the Mets think they can get $8 million of production from him in 2009, they might very well do that. I guess this is possible. If he continues to show signs of decline I would think the Mets will cut all ties. But if he does have a nice bounceback year they might be tempted to keep him, especially since there's currently, at least, no one set to inherit his position. The other factor they'd have to consider would be which first basemen are available through trades for free agency. (That Atlanta first baseman intrigues me. And if the Mets get him I promise to learn how to spell his name!)

Centerfield Feb 20 2008 11:43 AM

I think Delgado lost batspeed, and I don't think that comes back. Here's the thing though, if he's lost some batspeed, why not choke up? Or use a lighter bat? When he got a hold of one last year, they still went a mile. He just swung and missed too much.

metirish Feb 20 2008 11:54 AM

It's been reported that he has lost about 20 lbs , came into spring training that much trimmer, dare I say the best shape he's ever been in. I think he's rededicating himself to the task at hand.

AG/DC Feb 20 2008 12:14 PM

I think 2008 will be like 2007 for him. I don't think there'll be further decline this year, as I think 2007 was two steps backward.

Willets Point Feb 20 2008 12:57 PM

I'm confident he will bounce back, not likely to the production of his prime years, but much better than 2007.

Gwreck Feb 20 2008 01:47 PM Re: Carlos Delgado

="Benjamin Grimm"]I read somewhere recently (not sure where... Marty Noble maybe?) that Delgado may very well return to the Mets in 2009. If he has a great season, his contract will automatically vest for $16 million. (It would have to be a really great season for that to happen, and it's not likely.) For Delgado's contract to become guaranteed in 2009, he will need to be the World Series MVP and either the NLCS MVP or finish no lower than 6th in the league MVP voting.

metirish Feb 20 2008 01:56 PM

Well now wouldn't it be great to see him attain those?

RealityChuck Feb 20 2008 02:08 PM

Delgado had a terrible first half last year, but his second half was much better. His numbers in the first half were .242/.305/.435. while in the second half they were .285/.375/.469. What hurt his production most was the fact that he played in fewer games the second half. He also had some very good numbers once he moved out of the #4 slot. So, essentially, the main concern about Delgado is whether he is injured. If he remains injury free, his numbers are pretty good (especially in September: .321/.383/.566). It's hard to argue he's losing skills when the numbers show he improved as the season went on.

metsmarathon Feb 20 2008 04:00 PM

baseball prospectus' pecota weighted mean has him at 0.265/0.344/0.471, which is a slight upgrade from last season's 0.258/0.333/0.448 it also predicts for him about 75% of the playing time, or 521 plate appearances, down from last year's 607. his runs, rbi, and hr per plate appearance are at slightly better rates than last year, though his overall predicted totals for those stats drop due to the reduction in playing time.

Valadius Feb 20 2008 04:26 PM

I've wondered why we haven't started grooming someone in the minors to eventually fill Delgado's shoes at first sometime in the near future, just in case we can't find one on the open market. I mean, those are some pretty big shoes to fill. That being said, I expect Delgado to hit about .275-.285, with 25-30 homers and 90-110 RBI.

metsmarathon Feb 20 2008 04:45 PM

we just need to pick up that nice fellow down in atlanta... he hasn't signed long term with them yet has he? i think good hitting first basemen are often available enough that you don't really need to specifically develop one. or, rather, focus on developing one. its better to develop outfielders and infielders, and if one of them can't hack the position but has a great bat, you move him over to first. it reduces the likliehood of developing a truly outstanding fielding 1bman, but... i guess... so...?

soupcan Feb 20 2008 04:56 PM

Valadius wrote: That being said, I expect Delgado to hit about .275-.285, with 25-30 homers and 90-110 RBI. Where do I sign up for that?

TransMonk Feb 20 2008 05:49 PM

I think his numbers will improve slightly this year. Delgado's production is not in my top 5 lists of concerns for 2008. (Although, it's probably number 6)

Rockin' Doc Feb 20 2008 05:54 PM

I hope vlad's right, but I suspect he may have come up with that vision for Delgado's 2008 season after extensive time at his local bar.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 20 2008 06:15 PM

He's also the guy who would rather have Kevin Mulvey than Johan Santana.

Gwreck Feb 20 2008 08:30 PM

Does Adam Rubin still read the CPF? http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2008/02/talking-bat-speed-and-babies-w.html

TransMonk Feb 20 2008 08:46 PM

Posted mid-split.

smg58 Feb 21 2008 08:10 AM

metsmarathon wrote: we just need to pick up that nice fellow down in atlanta... he hasn't signed long term with them yet has he? No. I don't see Boras (yes, he's the agent) agreeing to an extension unless Teixeira really thinks Atlanta's the coolest place on earth. Nobody has to tell Boras that the Braves have been cutting corners lately, and that both New York teams will likely be in the market for a first baseman next year. (On the plus side, I think it's safe to say that Boras has a better working relationship with the Mets than he does with the Yankees at this point.)

Benjamin Grimm Feb 21 2008 08:15 AM

Yes, I'm sure that Tex will test the market. When was the last time one of Boras' clients failed to do that?

attgig Feb 21 2008 08:41 AM

so dealing with Boras with Olie and Texiera.... is getting those two guys next year going to cost more than getting Santana this year?

smg58 Feb 21 2008 09:52 AM

If Tex knocks out 40 this year, he could probably command Santana money. As it is, he'll turn 28 this April and is one of the top two or three hitters and fielders at his position. As for Ollie, given how up and down he's been, his value might depend more on this year than it would for most of the other potential free agents. At this point, how big of a commitment would you make to him?

Gwreck Feb 21 2008 10:08 AM

3 years. If I was Minaya, I would've offered Perez the $6M or whatever he asked for in arbitration in exchange for him signing for 09, 10 and 11 as well.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Feb 21 2008 11:24 AM

I think we should consider ourselves lucky that Perez has to sing for his supper this year.

Frayed Knot Feb 21 2008 11:43 AM

Absolutely. Oliver's career - both prior to coming to the Mets and since - has been so erratic that I wouldn't know where to start with a multi-year offer. And from the player's end he probably wouldn't know where to settle either. Perez could hit the FA market this winter as an under-30, top of the rotation type pitcher -- which is why I don't think they ever would have gone for the suggestion of a 3-year deal in exchange for getting their price at arbitration. I'd be very surprised if a deal with him for beyond this year even gets discussed prior to the season ending.

Triple Dee Feb 22 2008 05:44 AM

="smg58"] metsmarathon wrote: No. I don't see Boras (yes, he's the agent) agreeing to an extension unless Teixeira really thinks Atlanta's the coolest place on earth. Nobody has to tell Boras that the Braves have been cutting corners lately, and that both New York teams will likely be in the market for a first baseman next year. (On the plus side, I think it's safe to say that Boras has a better working relationship with the Mets than he does with the Yankees at this point.) The Red Sox will be in the market for a first baseman, too, although I suspect they will re-sign Youkilis. The Yankees will lose a lot of salary at the end of this year, so it's conceivable they'll go hard after Teixeira. This is on the assumption Juan Miranda doesn't pan-out for them (which IMO is likely). However they may look to acquire somebody before that, and Nick Johnson is likely to be a prime candidate as he will be surplus requirements when he returns from injury. Similarly, if Delgado gets injured I think Johnson will be a prime candidate to replace him via a trade. Another FA first baseman that may available for 2009 is Adam Dunn. I sincerely hope the Mets don't entertain any thoughts of acquiring him. Nymr83 Feb 22 2008 08:42 AM I wouldn't mind being the ones going after Nick Johnson and his amazing OBP during this season. seawolf17 Feb 22 2008 08:45 AM Let's see Johnson play a full major league season without getting hurt first. AG/DC Feb 22 2008 08:51 AM Well, I don't care about injury prone-ness, so much as I care about how he comes back from that last injury. A year and a month is a long time to be out. Vic Sage Feb 22 2008 09:15 AM ]Another FA first baseman that may available for 2009 is Adam Dunn. I sincerely hope the Mets don't entertain any thoughts of acquiring him. yes, heaven forfend that we acquire a 27-year old slugger with a career OPS of .900 [OB% = .380 (!) + SLG% = .520] and an OPS+ of 130 [2007 = 136]. Your observation is typical of people who still think "Batting AVG" is a stat with a meaningful correlation to run production, or that strikeouts are anything other than an out. such thinking would almost be quaint if it weren't so annoying. Triple Dee Feb 22 2008 09:43 AM Vic Sage wrote: ]Another FA first baseman that may available for 2009 is Adam Dunn. I sincerely hope the Mets don't entertain any thoughts of acquiring him. yes, heaven forfend that we acquire a 27-year old slugger with a career OPS of .900 [OB% = .380 (!) + SLG% = .520] and an OPS+ of 130 [2007 = 136]. Your observation is typical of people who still think "Batting AVG" is a stat with a meaningful correlation to run production, or that strikeouts are anything other than an out. such thinking would almost be quaint if it weren't so annoying. No, my observation is based on the fact he plays 1/2 his games at the Great American Bandbox, the easiest place to hit HRs in MLB last season (yes, including Coors Field, PF 1.351 compared with 1.251 compared to 0.900 at Shea) Dunn has an excellent OBP and like you, I believe that strikeouts really aren't all that different from any other kind of out. However, I think somebody who strikes out 200 times a season isn't going to endear themselves to the NY press terribly much, which may impact on him negatively for a number of years. Perhaps, it would have been better for me to say he isn't my first choice for next year's first baseman, but I certainly wouldn't view it as a catastrophe if he was. Far from it. Frayed Knot Feb 22 2008 10:34 AM Dunn's HRs would leave any park ... including Yellowstone. I doubt GAB is affecting his totals all that much. He wouldn't be my favorite player to get; kind of one-dimensional, slow of foot and an absolute butcher with a glove. But .400 OBPs and prodigious power can't be easily dismissed. That said, it's too early for me to worry about '09 1Bmen at this point. Welcome aboard DDD metirish Feb 22 2008 10:46 AM Frayed Knot wrote: . I'd be very surprised if a deal with him for beyond this year even gets discussed prior to the season ending. I can't find it but I read recently that Boras has told or will tell the Mets that no such talk will take place during the season.I'm not crazy about Boras but he positions his players to maximize their potential earning power and if he has a good season and that means getting a five year deal from a Kansas or Seattle or whoever then that's where he'll go. metsmarathon Feb 22 2008 12:38 PM for his career, dunn has an ops of 0.939 at home, and 0.881 on the road. year park multi-yr BPF single yr BPF hOPS rOPS 2001 CF 105 98 0.850 1.027 2002 CF 104 110 0.896 0.814 2003 GABP 95 97 0.888 0.740 2004 GABP 98 93 0.990 0.925 2005 GABP 100 103 1.057 0.805 2006 GABP 104 105 0.864 0.847 2007 GABP 104 103 0.965 0.915 his home/road splits don't always track the park factor. in 03 and 04, when GABP played as more of a pitchers park, he still hit better there than on the road. and the huge difference between his 05 splits seem to be more an exception than the rule. but i could be wrong. or maybe he just doesn't hit better when he wakes up in a hotel...? seawolf17 Feb 22 2008 01:51 PM AG/DC wrote: Well, I don't care about injury prone-ness, so much as I care about how he comes back from that last injury. A year and a month is a long time to be out. That's what I'm saying. I'd take Dunn at first base in a second. Dude can MASH. smg58 Feb 22 2008 02:30 PM My guess is Johnson gets traded before the spring is out if he's ready to play, because the Nats gave Dmitri Young a hefty extension and have too many outfielders to justify rolling the dice with his glove in left. I bet Johnson winds up back in pinstripes. I think an .880 OPS (i.e., his road splits) is a realistic expectation for Dunn if he came here. That's certainly not bad, but for somebody who's a defensive liability in left and presumably would be at first (the Reds have had the opportunities to move him to first if they wanted to), it's not overwhelming. Teixeira's played in a friendly park too, but his road OPS is .915 over the last three years, he handled Atlanta just fine, and he's a big asset with the glove. AG/DC Feb 22 2008 02:47 PM I took a long look at it, and right now our best bets at first base in 2009 are 1) Marlon Anderson 2) Ben Johnson 3) Michel Abreu So, yeah, they'll be doing something, but we have a long hard season before finding out what. And that's good. Nymr83 Feb 22 2008 03:37 PM Dunn's OPS+ the last 3 years 141, 114, 136. he's 27. Teixeira's are 144, 126, 150, he's also 27. It looks like you'd rather have Teixeira especially with defense counted in, but theres nothing wrong with Adam Dunn, he'd certainly be an upgrade over the spriraling Delgado (161, 131, 103 and 35 years old) metsguyinmichigan Feb 22 2008 06:58 PM AG/DC wrote: I took a long look at it, and right now our best bets at first base in 2009 are 1) Marlon Anderson 2) Ben Johnson 3) Michel Abreu So, yeah, they'll be doing something, but we have a long hard season before finding out what. And that's good. Is Delgado going to retire? I know they won't sign him to the deal he has now or anything remotely close. But if he has a decent season and will come respectably cheap, he's be a better option than any of those three. Nymr83 Feb 22 2008 07:06 PM i think his having a decent season and coming cheap are mutually exclusive. either he sucks and we don't want him back or he plays well in his contract year and prices himself out of what the Metsshould pay (paying for an aging 1stbaseman is not generally a wise investment) metirish Feb 22 2008 07:23 PM Dunn plays in a great hitters park but who knows what Citi Field will play like, not that it would matter to him. Reds are coming to Shea in May and I'd like to go see them. Triple Dee Feb 22 2008 08:48 PM smg58 wrote: My guess is Johnson gets traded before the spring is out if he's ready to play, because the Nats gave Dmitri Young a hefty extension and have too many outfielders to justify rolling the dice with his glove in left. I bet Johnson winds up back in pinstripes. I think an .880 OPS (i.e., his road splits) is a realistic expectation for Dunn if he came here. That's certainly not bad, but for somebody who's a defensive liability in left and presumably would be at first (the Reds have had the opportunities to move him to first if they wanted to), it's not overwhelming. If Dunn wants to maximize his FA value, he'll be smart to package himself as a 1B. However, the Reds have an excellent 1B prospect who will take over from Scott Hatteberg very soon. Dunn may prefer a move to an AL team because of the opportunities to DH -- and in a few years his physique will be crying out "DH!"