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Arbitration Day

AG/DC Feb 20 2008 10:57 PM

Barring a last-minute deal, today (Thursday) will be the day of the Mets first arbitration hearing since 1992, as the Mets try and argue that Ollie Perez ain't all that. The last time the Mets had a case, David Cone beat them and walked off wtih $4.25 million. Al Harazin was the Mets' general manager. Jeff Torborg was the field boss. Jeff Innis and Kevin Elster also lost cases that year, as the Mets made the specious (but nonetheless successful) argument that Innis was the only pitcher ever to pitch a gajillion innings in relief and get no wins and no saves. Of course, he would pitch worse in 1992, but get six wins and a save. Mets representative: David Cohen, general counsel Mets offer: $4,725,000 =orange]Perez's representative: Scott Boras, agent =orange]Perez's offer: $6,500,000 Duh-rama! Maybe not, but I'll take what I can get.

Gwreck Feb 21 2008 12:05 AM

Fearless prediction: The Mets "win" this hearing.

Frayed Knot Feb 22 2008 08:32 AM

Oliver Wins !!!!

Benjamin Grimm Feb 22 2008 08:36 AM

That will just make him harder to sign this winter. But depending on how his 2008 goes, we may not care a whole lot.

Triple Dee Feb 22 2008 08:41 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: Oliver Wins !!!! Can't say I saw that coming. That puts the Mets 2008 payroll at ~138M and about $17M less than the luxury tax threshold.

Triple Dee Feb 22 2008 08:45 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: That will just make him harder to sign this winter. But depending on how his 2008 goes, we may not care a whole lot. Make no mistake about it, if he merely replicates his 2007 performance Boras will be looking for something in the 5 years/$75M region.

Benjamin Grimm Feb 22 2008 08:51 AM

If that's what Boras will demand, the Mets should take a pass and wait until the price comes down. I'd go no more than $30 million over three years for him. And that's the absolute maximum. He should really get $20 million over three.

Triple Dee Feb 22 2008 09:12 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If that's what Boras will demand, the Mets should take a pass and wait until the price comes down. I'd go no more than $30 million over three years for him. And that's the absolute maximum. He should really get $20 million over three. Given Ollie's age, some team will give him five years, no problem. The Royals gave Gil Meche (and his career 4.50 ERA) 5/$55M. I have a feeling Omar will oblige him -- there are 3 (vacancies on next year's rotation and the 2009 FA list for pitchers is filled with mediocrity that will go for a premium.

attgig Feb 22 2008 10:07 AM

yeah, if he replicates his performance last year, there's no question that minaya tries to resign with 5. i think 75 is a bit high, but maybe down towards 60. not sure if that'll be enough though. (ok, i admit it, I'm pulling those numbers outta my arse). I have a good (or is it bad) that he actually comes back and improves. I think maturity and a good catcher helps him get closer to his 04 numbers. Helps us this year, but makes it an offseason to worry about. maybe a championship will make him go the ways of sheff, kenny, and arod and ditch boras.

Farmer Ted Feb 22 2008 12:16 PM

What's a few million between friends? Just so he goes out and earns it.

Triple Dee Feb 24 2008 09:31 AM

As an epilogue to Perez's hearing, it emerged that Scott Boras used Erik Bedard (who recently avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1/$7M deal with the Mariners) as his comparison. The Mets countered wih Tomo Ohka. Does anybody find it difficult to see why the Mets lost?

Nymr83 Feb 24 2008 09:51 AM

Bedard was way better than Perez last year (and career), if Bedard got 7, Perez deserves 5 at most (or maybe Perez deserves 7 and Bedard was foolish to avoid arbitration.) but either way Bedard should have been the Mets' argument "don't pay this guy like a far better pitcher"

Triple Dee Feb 24 2008 10:26 AM

Nymr83 wrote: Bedard was way better than Perez last year (and career), if Bedard got 7, Perez deserves 5 at most (or maybe Perez deserves 7 and Bedard was foolish to avoid arbitration.) but either way Bedard should have been the Mets' argument "don't pay this guy like a far better pitcher" I think in arbitration hearings you can only reason by analogy in a positive way, not in a negative way. The arbitrators would have asked themselves one question: Is Perez closer to Bedard or to Ohka? Further, in arbitration hearings there is no scope for a result beyond the two figures submitted by the respective parties (ie it was either $6.5M or $4.7M) Boras was actually quite clever to use Bedard because the $7M was a compromised figure . So, in effect, he was saying "even if you believe Bedard is a better pitcher than Perez, had he gone to arbitration he would have received more than $7M, but my client is asking for less." Personally, I think $6.5M for Perez is quite reasonable, especially when you think about what Barry Zito is making.