Mar 01 2008 03:52 PM
With Delgado's climbing age and increasing proneness to nagging injuries, I've figured that now's as good a time as ever to look at what exactly this organization has at first base, in case he misses substantial amounts of time/sucks nards.
Michel Abreu
Cuban defector signed by the Mets in winter of 2006 after having a contract with the Red Sox voided a few months earlier because of residency issues and the fact that he was discovered to be 4 years older than previously though. At this point, it's not looking good for him. He's 33 years old, has no pro experience above Double-A, and missed all of last season with visa issues. That'd being said, there's always the allure of his ability. That one year in AA was fantasic. He put up a .403 OBP and .529 SLG with 17 HR and 26 2B in just under 400 ABs. And while it's foolish to judge off the last thing you saw, especially when it came in a spring training game against a college team, he did have that game tying homer earlier in the week. Minaya's already said that Abreu's pegged to play 1st base in New Orleans this season, but he's still an intriguing guy to have around. If the Mets are looking for a long term solution this year, however, I'd really hate to see him taking opportunities away from...
Mike Carp
Won't turn 22 until the end of June, and saw his stock rise rapidly after an outstanding 2006 campaign in St. Lucie. Mets drafted him in the 9th round of the '04 draft, and he started drawing attention to himself as a 20-year-old with a .286/.378/.447, 17 HR, 26 2B in 490 AB campaign for YOUR 2006 FSL champion St. Lucie Mets. He got some slack for a high K rate (329 in 1357 career ABs), but as long as that nifty .094 isolated OBP is maintained I certainly won't mind.
2007 was a rougher season for Carp. He came into AA-Binghamton with high expectations but seemed to suffer, with his basic line dipping to .251/.337/.387. I'm not that worried though, as he suffered a broken finger and wound up missing all of May, most of June, and having a miserable July. On the whole for '07, there was hardly any change in his career line drive %, his walk % increased, while his BABIP and isolated power swooned. The power outage I'd chalk up to his finger injury, meaning there's really nothing in here that would suggest he's forgotten how to hit. The only real red flag, albeit a major one, is that he is pretty abysmal against left-handed pitching. During his career year in '06, there was a .235 OPS disparity in his performance against RHPs and LHPs. Last season it was an eye popping .412.
Carp's going to get another crack at Double-A this year, so hopefully he can stay healthy, make strides, and maybe get a chance at the big show during the second half of the year.
Nick Evans
The farthest off of the three, but probably the one with the highest upside, Evans would seem scheduled to start this season in Double-A as well, which may lead to a bit of a competition. He was drafted the same year as Carp, 4 rounds earlier, and is about half a year older. His 2007 at St. Lucie was comparable to Carp's 2006, as he went .286/.374/.476 with 15 HR and 25 2Bs, but in over 100 fewer at-bats. He's a righthanded batter and hasn't shown any real problems handling pitchers from either side of the rubber. He's got a higher walk rate, less strikeouts, and better power than Carp, and for what it's worth, he's rated #10 among Mets' prospects by John Sickles, 6 spots ahead of Carp. Shortly, he's got the best chance of any Mets 1B to become an everyday player, but won't do diddly-squat for us in 2008.