Mar 12 2008 08:49 AM
Master Index of Archived Threads
Touched by an Angel
| AG/DC Mar 11 2008 12:02 PM |
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Anybody stating to wonder if this guy might be starting-nine-quality material before the year is out?
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| Willets Point Mar 11 2008 12:06 PM |
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Well I've been fond of him for quite a while.
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| soupcan Mar 11 2008 12:06 PM |
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Not yet, although I have thought about it.
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| Benjamin Grimm Mar 11 2008 12:11 PM Re: Touched by an Angel |
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You mean that he'd bump Church or Alou (or Beltran!) from the starting lineup? I would doubt that. But he looks like we'll be glad to have him around as a fourth outfielder, a guy who won't be a drag on the lineup when he starts.
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| Centerfield Mar 11 2008 12:12 PM |
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Or he might be Jon Nunnally.
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| John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2008 12:12 PM |
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He's my opening-day left fielder at the moment.
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| AG/DC Mar 11 2008 12:24 PM |
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Well, thinking about it is wondering.
Well, Church, maybe. Alou has bumped himself, so there appears to be starting-nine room for him already.
Or a thousand other guys. He's seemingly already graduated from journeyman fringer to platoonist. He may yet graduate further. He hasn't yet hinted at the power to graduate as far as Gary Matthews (another journeyman who came through) has, but maybe as far as Brady Clark did. That wouldn't be such a bad thing to get for Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers. On the other hand, maybe Coles is the next fringe outfielder to beat the odds and break through.
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| smg58 Mar 11 2008 01:10 PM |
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The Alou injury will at least make it easier to assess Pagan, because we'll get to see if his hitting continues once the games start counting. He may already be preferable to Chavez, which makes me wonder if signing Chavez for two years instead of one was such a good idea. I think I'd still like to see a righty OF/1B with some pop brought in, but I've got no problem with riding Pagan while he's hot and hoping he stays hot indefinitely.
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| Nymr83 Mar 11 2008 02:17 PM |
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he's certainly playing his way onto the team, but its just spring training, talk of him starting is very premature
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| John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2008 02:54 PM |
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No it isn't. We have a vacancy in left field for opening day plus a good five or six weeks following that.
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| Farmer Ted Mar 11 2008 05:10 PM |
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He's this year's Endy Chavez, if you know what I'm sayin.
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| Nymr83 Mar 11 2008 05:26 PM |
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a couple of 0-5's in April and everyone will be begging for Endy Chavez or even yelling "Why isn't Fernando ready?" Pagan has never really showed himself to be much of a hitter before and i'm not about to let a couple of weeks of spring training numbers convince me that he's any better than his 318 MLB ABs the last two years (.255/.306/.415) or his last full season (2005 at Norfolk .271/.333/.395) say he is.
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| AG/DC Mar 11 2008 06:30 PM |
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People get better. It happens all the time. Smarter people see it earlier.
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| KC Mar 11 2008 06:53 PM |
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roto roto man
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| John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2008 07:44 PM |
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Curious what Endy Chavez might have shown you through 2005. Curious what convinces you even that Chavez is better than Pagan right now.
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| Nymr83 Mar 11 2008 07:47 PM |
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so Pagan has gotten better and the evidence is 2 weeks of spring training numbers? i understand wanting to be enthusiastic about a new acquisition, but i don't understand letting 30 at bats that don't even count make a dent in the perception of a guy that 313 major league and 2400+ minor league ABs that a guy has already racked up.
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| Nymr83 Mar 11 2008 07:48 PM |
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my point wasn't that Chavez was clearly better right now, only that the same people talking up Pagan after a few spring at bats will be calling for a replacement for him if he isn't hitting in a few days of real games.
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| John Cougar Lunchbucket Mar 11 2008 07:53 PM |
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The question was never about Pagan supposedly proving anything in 30 spring training at-bats. Nobody here is saying that, ayt least I'm not. The question was who's going to play left field on opening day.
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| AG/DC Mar 11 2008 08:13 PM |
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Maybe. Better evidence is that he's simply a year older and players tend to get better as they approach 30. Other evidence is the team's commitment to him. But I didn't say he got better. I said "Anybody sta[r]ting to wonder if this guy might be starting-nine-quality material before the year is out?" It's fair to speculate. Somebody suspected going into 2006 that Endy Chavez had more than he had shown. That person was smart, banking on the unseen.
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| Triple Dee Mar 11 2008 08:53 PM |
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I think you're undervaluing Church, just a little bit. Church has slugged >.500 at every level, including in the Great Plains of RFK. Pagan has not slugged .500 at any level.
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| Triple Dee Mar 11 2008 09:05 PM |
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Chavez showed in 2006 that he can put up numbers that come close to an "MLB average" outfielder. Having said that, I'm not terribly confident he can actually reproduce those numbers.
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| AG/DC Mar 11 2008 09:12 PM |
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I'm really not trying to. Church could bring a lot to this team. I'm just hoping to see Pagan evolve into starter material, especially since, you know, there's a job open in left.
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| Triple Dee Mar 11 2008 09:29 PM |
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I'd like to see Pagan break out as much as anyone. Realistically, however, the odds are against it. The other point is, I think it's redundant to have both Chavez and Pagan on the same 25 man roster (whether Alou is available or not). That's why I'd like the Mets to trade for somebody like Marcus Thames, who is a legitimate threat to hit the ball out of the park, in a back-up role.
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| Nymr83 Mar 11 2008 10:58 PM |
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i think evidence has shown that the average "peak" year is lower than 30, most hitters will NOT tend to get better until 30 but until somewhere in the 26-28 range, or so i've seen somewhere. and yeah Church is alot better than the media gives him credit for. If he repeats last year's numbers I'm happy to have him, if he approaches his rate stats from 2006 over a full season I'd be very very happy.
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| smg58 Mar 12 2008 06:50 AM |
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I'm good with that. Thames and Xavier Nady are guys I think you have to look into, as are Kendry Morales and Justin Huber, who aren't likely to make the Opening Day rosters of their current teams but would fit here.
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| AG/DC Mar 12 2008 07:17 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Mar 12 2008 07:19 AM |
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I think there's a subtle but important distinction between "players tend to get better as they approach 30" and the "players tend to get bettter until 30." Improvements come in fits and starts, two steps up and one step back. I'd certainly like to see where the average peak year is established, but as Pagan will be 26 this year, it's not woth hammering out here. As for continuing to shop, fine to entertain crushes on some of these guys, but since we maxed out the card on Johan Santana, we may have to get used to the players we have. Nady's been more popular as an ex-Met than he ever was as a Met. He's probably not the first guy in that regard, but it's been funny to see.
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| Triple Dee Mar 12 2008 07:18 AM |
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Both Thames and Nady hit lh pitching hard. And the one thing that concerns me about Church, is that he can't. However, unlike Nady, Thames is surplus requirements in Dee-troit. He also makes less than 1/2 as much money. Can Morales play OF? I read somewhere Huber is out of options; he's been on a mini-tear this Spring(.533/1.000), equalling his career RBI total in 12abs -- I have no idea what KC's depth is like; they currently have him playing OF.
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| sharpie Mar 12 2008 07:26 AM |
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Nady is a starter with the Pirates. He'd cost us too much at this point to be a platoon player with the Mets.
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| OlerudOwned Mar 12 2008 07:54 AM |
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FWIW, PECOTA has Pagan with a .249/.313/.389 slash stats in 174 PA. Decent breakout and improvement chances, but his blurb basically has him pegged as a solid 4th outfielder who's helpful because of his ability to run and switch hit.
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| AG/DC Mar 12 2008 08:05 AM |
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I agree on Church.
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| Frayed Knot Mar 12 2008 08:30 AM |
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I think that's the main point - if not immediately (due to Alou's hernia) then eventually. Pagan switch-hits although, like most of ours, is better from the left side. Endy brings superior defense and speed tho Pagan is reported to be good at both as well (haven't seen enough myself to know how close). Met fans have a thing for Endy - based mostly on his unexpectedly good numbers in 2006 and one stunning catch - but need to realize that 2006 represented the exception for him rather than the norm and that he's not all that young (30 last month) so it's unlikely that we're catching him on the brink of an upswing. Suggestions for the RH / bit o' power / corner OF-1B spot: Marcus Thames: 31 (as of last week) One good season (2006) -- 26 HRs in 348 ABs (.256/.333/.549) fell off to .242/.278/.498 in 2007 (269 ABs) Basically a good-power, High-K, low-BB type .. not sure about speed/defense. A partial starter for Detroit, they reportedly want a lot for him. Kevin Millar: 37 in September '08 Brings medium power, good OBP, lousy defense and "veteren leadership" (if you buy that sort of thing) Probably available, probably wouldn't take much to fetch Xavier Nady - 29 y/o We all know pretty much what to expect from X. I do hope fans remember that, for all the complaints about Green's 'D' last season that X wasn't a whole lot better. The problem - as mentioned above - is that he's a starter for the Pirates and just because WE want him as a fill-in/platoon/PH doesn't mean that's what he gets priced at. I suspect it would take *At Minimum* Heilman-plus, and the asking price would probably start at Pelfrey. Justin Huber - 26 at mid-season Limited ML time (100 ABs) and almost no success, but has some real good high-minors numbers (.293/.395/.520 over the last 4 seasons & 1,300+ ABs ... that's more than 40% of his hits for Xtra bases). Has played both corner OF & 1B (although reportedly not well) and could also serve as that rarely needed but occasionally useful emergency catcher that would free up Castro's bat for occasional PH duty. He's out of options and KC seems to have a glut of corner/DH types with nowhere else to go (Teahen, Billy Butler). He might get waived (although we'd have a late shot at him if he were) or maybe a low-level prospect/reliever might be able to steal him first. Brandon Inge: 31 in May Another Detroit guy, got pushed out of his 3B spot by the Cabrera trade. A GREAT glove at 3rd (not that that's our primary need), came up as a catcher (that emergency thing again) and has played all three OF spots. .236/.312/.376 last year -- hit 27 HRs in 2006 although 16 or less every other time. Probably doesn't want to sit as much as the role we're looking for would entail and. like Nady, would probably cost more than he might be worth to us.
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| AG/DC Mar 12 2008 08:38 AM |
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For now, I'm OK with any Pagan/Chavez reduncancy.
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| Triple Dee Mar 12 2008 08:43 AM |
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Excellent summary, FK.
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| Frayed Knot Mar 12 2008 08:49 AM |
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As am I - particularly during the Alou outage. It's just that, for the longer term, when your bench is comprised of lefty-heavy, lowish-power OFers (Angel & Endy) plus a gaggle of 2B-types (Marlon, Damion, Anderson, Ruben) it would be nice if the only RH bat capable of putting a scare into the opposing manager wasn't the one you're most reluctant to use (Ramon). Redundancy isn't bad, but variety has its merits too.
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| AG/DC Mar 12 2008 08:49 AM |
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| Triple Dee Mar 12 2008 08:49 AM |
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Re #(3), unfortunately I don't think there are many GM's out there who are sold by Endy-mania.
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| AG/DC Mar 12 2008 08:52 AM |
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It only takes one.
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| TheOldMole Mar 12 2008 09:01 AM |
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How do you pronounce Thames's name?
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| Triple Dee Mar 12 2008 09:09 AM |
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tɛmz - like the river
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| OlerudOwned Mar 23 2008 03:29 PM |
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http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/349919
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| DocTee Mar 24 2008 09:02 AM |
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Tiggers not dealing an OF bat now that Curtis Granderson is on the DL to start the season (broken finger)...Brandon Inge expected to start in CF
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