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No it's not your imagination (running away with you)

Frayed Knot May 09 2008 11:54 AM

There's always a temptation (see what I did there?) to think the bad stuff happens to your team more often than to others. But I was getting the feeling that our staff was letting up a lot of 2-out runs. Not only just more than random distribution would explain but also a lot more than we're scoring. Well, in this case it doesn't just seem that way: Runs scored = 152; scored after 2-outs = 46, or 30% of the total Runs against = 143; scored after 2-outs = 68, a whopping 48% I'm not quite sure what this says except for the obvious part that we almost getting out of innings a lot of times. Heilman & Pelfrey seem most guilty in my mind although I didn't break this down per culprit. Maybe this is a "luck" thing and the law of averages will bring that down somewhat as we go on.

metirish May 09 2008 12:05 PM

It seems the pen gets a lot of work with the Mets , not sure how much more or less than other teams , anyway I think it would be interesting to see how those 68 runs break down amongst the starters and the pen. I suppose in my mind I think that if the starters went deeper into games that number might be better, which of course could be totally false.

John Cougar Lunchbucket May 09 2008 12:16 PM

Perez is an offender, feels like. What are the leaguewide figures? I might be dumb but I'd guess 1 out is the most popular run-scoring out, followed by 0 then 2. The Mets 2-out against number (48%) seems very high

Frayed Knot May 09 2008 12:19 PM

I don't think the starter/reliever breakdown would say much since coughing up runs w/2 outs is strictly a within-inning stat - and if whoever is pitching could get that 3rd out at what sould seem to be a normal rate that runs against stat would drop by 15 runs or more. Now some of those might be garbage-time tack-on runs that wouldn't change the result while others would be at more crucial times. And while you can never know for sure how the W-L results would change but, on average, cutting that amount off the RA side is normally enough to turn 17-15 record into 19-13

Frayed Knot May 09 2008 12:24 PM

="John Cougar Lunchbucket"]Perez is an offender, feels like. My guesses were Pelfrey & Heilman "What are the leaguewide figures?" Dunno "I might be dumb but I'd guess 1 out is the most popular run-scoring out, followed by 0 then 2." My only guess is that w/2 outs is probably lowest under normal circumstances seeing as how you can't score on an out. btw, my 2-out figures do NOT include those scored as the 2nd out was being made. IOW, I counted the runs based on the number of outs as the AB began, so technically our 2-out runs allowed would be even bigger if you counted differently. "The Mets 2-out against number (48%) seems very high" Yes it does.

metirish May 09 2008 12:25 PM

Perez with 2 outs this season. 7 Games - AB - 39 R - 6 H - 10 HR - 1 BB - 10 SO - 9 I'll check on some of the others .

metirish May 09 2008 12:31 PM

Pelfrey with 2 outs this season G - 5 AB - 34 R - 4 H - 11 HR - 1 BB - 3 SO - 4 Heilman - G -16 AB - 27 R - 9 H - 8 HR - 2 BB - 3 SO - 5 SO - 9

metirish May 09 2008 12:38 PM

Sosa is an offender. G - 17 AB - 36 R - 18 H - 12 HR - 3 BB - 4 SO - 3

Frayed Knot May 09 2008 12:44 PM

Sosa's only given up 19 runs the whole season (and just 13 earned) - and [u:39f70a0cbe]all but one[/u:39f70a0cbe] have come with 2 outs?!?! Assuming that's accurate that's certainly a problem, although to be fair to him he's probably the most likely to come in in mid-inning and therefore pitch to a greater majority of batters with 2 outs.

metirish May 09 2008 12:47 PM

Crazy all right. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=sosajo02&year=2008

Frayed Knot May 09 2008 12:54 PM

Weird in that they show him with 19 runs against but then the splits show up as 2 (0 outs) + 2 (1 out) + 18 (2 outs) = 22 Maybe they're counting inherited runners in the splits also?

metirish May 09 2008 12:56 PM

Yeah I saw that , below that there is " Clutch Stats"....inherited runners? 2 -OUTS - RISP - SOSA AB - 20 R - 18 H - 7 HR - 3 BB - 3

Frayed Knot Jun 26 2008 11:31 AM

Dragging up an older thread for some updates. This began with a thesis that the Mets seemed to be giving up an inordinate number of 2-out runs -- 48% of all runs allowed as it turned out. But I wasn't sure whether runs allowed per outs was something that was spread out evenly or how the performance of NYM pitchers compared to those of other teams. John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: What are the leaguewide figures? Funny you should ask ... In the NL so far this season: Runs allowed with 0 outs - 24% Runs allowed with 1 out - 38% Runs allowed with 2 outs - 38% I guess that makes sense, a lot of runs are the result of big innings which naturally occur as the inning goes on and only occasionally before an out is recorded. The good news is that our ratios have improved a bit since I first looked at it. NYM 0-out runs - 43% NYM w/1 out - 36% NYM w/2 outs - 21% We're still heavier than normal with 2-out runs (and highest in the league) but not quite as lop-sided as it was 6 weeks ago (48%) so maybe it is partially a bad luck thing and the law of averages is trending this back towards normal.