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Hello all!
Greetings from Sydney Australia, where winter has come early and I have a chronic case of jet-lag. I started writing this KTE on the long flight home from Paris where I’ve spent the last two weeks for work, in case anybody was wondering.
The Fish visit Shea for the first time this season. The two sides met on the Opening Day of the season where the mood in the two camps was at polar extremes to the present. There was much optimism among the Mets following the euphoria of the Santana acquisition, whereas the Fish seemed resolved for a season of mediocrity in what was a going to be rebuilding season.
Much has changed since then. The Marlins have spent most of season in 1st place of the NL East, whereas the Mets have been, for the most part, pissing in the wind and now find themselves languishing in the wrong end of the standings. In the words of Pink, “[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJmghwq7k2I]Who Knew[/url]?”
Fishing Guide
The Marlins have a record of 29-20 going into this series and are 2.5 games ahead of the Braves for the NL East lead (3 in the loss column). They are 5.5 games up on the Mets.
Recently the Marlins showed signs of faltering after getting swept by the Reds and losing an interleague series to KC. However, they rebounded by sweeping the D-Backs, in the process, handing Brandon Webb his first loss of the season. Then they faced the Giants where they lost the first game of the series (giving Barry Zito his first win), before bouncing back to sweep yesterday's double-header.
This series against the Mets is the start of a 10 game road trip for the Fish. They have have played 11 more games at home than on the road this season, so this road trip is likely to give a strong indication whether they're for real or whether they'll be found out. Therefore, you can expect them to play hard against a team that is licking their wounds. Their record on the road this season is 11-8.
You get the feeling that if the Mets are going to turn this season, then winning this series is a must. Sure there are enough games left, however a heavy defeat may well put them out of it, psychologically . It may also put Willie out of a job. However, losing the series to the Marlins may reflect just as a badly on Omar Minaya, since the Marlins are the Anti-Mets in the sense that have built a team around youth (lowest average age in the Majors) and with a payroll that was ~$22M on Opening Day. I'm sure this is pretty difficult to swallow for most Mets fan.
Goldfish
Dan Uggla is well on the way for a career year and should be the NL starting 2nd baseman at the All Star Game. He is currently hitting .318/.398/.698 with 16 HRs (joint MLB Leader with Lance Berkman) and 34 RBIs and is leading every hitting category for the Marlins.
In May, he is slugging a staggering 1.029 and has 12 HRs. He needs just more three HRs this month to break the all-time record for a 2nd baseman in one month. He's been particularly brutal when it has been late & close (1.238 OPS) and against finesse pitching (1.441 OPS). I think it's fair to say that it is a bad time for the Mets to be running into him.
Hanley Ramirez is the other key bat for the Marlins. His speed and high OBP has represented the ideal compliment to Uggla's brutal power. He is currently hitting .298 / .386 / .511 with 9HRs and 13 SB (4 CS). He also has 38 runs scored, one more than Uggla himself.
FishSticks
Pitching has definitely been the weak point of the Marlins this season. The Marlins starters have a combined ERA of 4.81 which is teetering around the NL average. However this figure is inflated by pitchers who have since been removed from the rotation. Their bullpen has faired slightly better with a 3.22 ERA. In total, the Marlins have coughed up 227 runs which, for some perspective, is four more than the Mets this season.
Injuries
Marlins
Brett Carroll rf - May 24: 15-Day DL
Lee Gardner rp - May 23: 15-Day DL
Mets
Pedro Martinez sp - May 25: 15-Day DL
Ryan Church rf - May 25: Day-To-Day
Jose Valentin 2b - May 25: Day-to-Day
Marlon Anderson 1b - May 24: 15-Day DL
Brady Clark lf - May 23: Day-to-Day
Moises Alou lf - May 22: 15-Day DL
Game 1 - 5/26 7:10PM ET (27/5 9:10AM AEST)
Ricky Nolasco v Mike Pelfrey
Ricky Nolasco (3-3, 4.62) is 25 year old right-hander out of Rialto, California who was acquired by the Marlins from the Cubs along with Sergio Mitre for Juan Pierre. He started his Marlin life in the bullpen and injuries wreaked havoc on his big-league potential, before he was switched to a starting role.
He throws in low-90's with terrific command, and he features a strong curveball and good change-up. He is very effective against right-handed hitters (.303 SLG against).
On the other hand, he has struggled against LHBs (.625 SLG against). Occasionally, he also struggles with his mechanics and confidence, and this when he his most vulnerable.
Nolasco is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 17 in 17.2 innings during that stretch. He is also 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last three road outings.
Nolasco is 1-1 with a 13.50 ERA in two career starts against the Mets.
For the Mets, Mike Pelfrey is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in two career starts against the Marlins.
Game 2- 5/27 7:10PM ET (28/5 9:10AM AEST)
Andrew Miller v Johan Santana
Andrew Miller (4-3, 5.33), 23 years old was acquired from the Tigers as part of the Cabrera trade.
He is a big southpaw with mid-90's heat and a strong slider, and tends to dominate LHBs (career .343 SLG against).
His change-up is his Achilles Heel, and has a tendency to struggle with location.
Notwithstanding this, Miller is coming off his strongest outing of the season after pitching 7 shutout innings against the D-Backs while striking out nine.
Miller has been hit pretty hard by the Mets in the past. He is 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA against the Mets. His victory came in Detroit's 15-7 win last season.
Johan Santana pitched a highly effective game against the Marlins on Opening Day, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings which earned him the win.
Game 3- 5/28 7:10PM ET (29/5 9:10AM AEST)
Scott Olsen v Oliver Perez
Scott Olsen (4-2, 3.38) is a left-handed power pitcher who may well be regarded as the "veteran presence" of the Fish rotation at 24 years old.
Olsen can crank-up his fastball to the mid-90s, and has nasty late movement. He also has a very strong slider. He is generally regarded to be a pretty competitive guy on the mound and works himself in-and-out of jams on a regular basis.
The effectiveness of his fastball is curbed by his lack of effective change-up and tends to give hitters too much of the plate.
His career record against the Mets is 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA
This season, he has absolutely dominated LHBs opponents who are slugging just 0.152 against him. However, he'll be coming off his worst start of the season which saw him cough-up 5 runs in 3.1 innings of work against the Giants.
Oliver Perez is 4-3 with a 4.68 ERA against the Fish.
Any errors or omissions to this KTE are attributable to the Coriolis Effect.
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