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AAAA

AG/DC Jun 03 2008 10:00 AM

I have to say, I've come to hate the designation of AAAA hitters and AAAA pitchers. I know some guys can flourish at AAA and struggle in the bigs, but I don't think there's any particluar trait to those who fail to make the jump (and carry, say, 80% of their produciton to the the next level). I think you and you and you are guessing. So am I. Yeah, a guy hits 26 or 27 and it becomes less likely he's going to keep developing. That's true everywhere, but it doesn't mean a guy with a 1.000 OPS in the Pacific Coast League can't throw up an .800 at the big league level. I'll give the scouts the benefit of the doubt for choosing Nick Evans over Val Pascucci, but it's tenuous benefit. I'm sure Pasucci would create some mighty wind in the bigs, but he might connect with a few lefthanded sliders also. I dedicate this thread to Craig Brazell, whose only (still) big league homer sunk the Cubs, and now labors for the Seibu Lions.

Willets Point Jun 03 2008 10:28 AM OOOO

Nicely put. Would be interesting if there were a level of independent AAAA teams around to put pressure on MLB players and MLB teams though.

metirish Jun 03 2008 10:32 AM

I had forgot about Brazell and didn't realize he saw so little time in the big leagues , made the PCL All- Star team in 07 with Omaha batting .307 with 32 home runs that season. Maybe he could have been Mike Jacobs.

Mex17 Jun 03 2008 10:36 AM Re: OOOO

Willets Point wrote: Nicely put. Would be interesting if there were a level of independent AAAA teams around to put pressure on MLB players and MLB teams though. I think that the Atlantic League comes pretty close to that.

Mex17 Jun 03 2008 10:39 AM

metirish wrote: I had forgot about Brazell and didn't realize he saw so little time in the big leagues , made the PCL All- Star team in 07 with Omaha batting .307 with 32 home runs that season. Maybe he could have been Mike Jacobs. The Mets have had a run of "almost" prospects at first base lately. Jacobs has kind of made it as a Kingman-esque type player, but then you had Brazell and Ian Bladergroen, who put up the stats in the minors and never panned out in The Show. Hopefully Carp breaks the cycle and really becomes something special for the Mets.

AG/DC Jun 03 2008 10:52 AM

I think many teams have systems full of those guys. Enough offense to make them interesting if they could play anywhere else at a big league level. Evans and Dan Murphy also qualify for the Mets Add Jason Phillips, Justin Huber, Earl Snyder. And I understand that these guys will get over-exposed if used regularly, but that doesn't mean they can't wiin some games if given their spots.

Mex17 Jun 03 2008 11:05 AM

AG/DC wrote: I think many teams have systems full of those guys. Enough offense to make them interesting if they could play anywhere else at a big league level. Evans and Dan Murphy also qualify for the Mets Add Jason Phillips, Justin Huber, Earl Snyder. And I understand that these guys will get over-exposed if used regularly, but that doesn't mean they can't wiin some games if given their spots. So what is the difference between a guy who will be "overexposed" and a legitimate major leaguer? Is it always just talent shining through or can it be work ethic? Can a guy like Evans learn from his struggles and make it or is he just doomed to AAAA status?

Benjamin Grimm Jun 03 2008 11:11 AM

It's far too early to "doom" Evans.

AG/DC Jun 03 2008 11:18 AM

One difference is ability to play a non-1b posistion effectively.

Frayed Knot Jun 03 2008 11:19 AM

Agreed. You can't be labeling someone as a AAAA player who has yet to even reach AAA (aside from this emergency call-up). He's too young and hasn't been around long enough to know what he is/will be. As far as the Atlantic League goes (plus similar independants) they'll have the occasional guy who'll parlay his performance there into a ML job (usually w/a stop in the minors first) but, from an overall quality standpoint, none of those leagues have a high enough level of talent to serve as a feeder system for these so-called AAAA players.

Mex17 Jun 03 2008 11:53 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: Agreed. You can't be labeling someone as a AAAA player who has yet to even reach AAA (aside from this emergency call-up). He's too young and hasn't been around long enough to know what he is/will be. As far as the Atlantic League goes (plus similar independants) they'll have the occasional guy who'll parlay his performance there into a ML job (usually w/a stop in the minors first) but, from an overall quality standpoint, none of those leagues have a high enough level of talent to serve as a feeder system for these so-called AAAA players. Yeah, but what the Atlantic League also has is the Carl Everetts of the world whose time has past in the major leagues but are still a few years away from retirement and whose names still have a modicum of box office appeal. To me that is another type of "AAAA" player.

86-Dreamer Jun 03 2008 12:13 PM

Raul Gonzalez signed a minor league contract with Mets today - back in 2002/2003, I thought for sure that he would be a good low cost OFer for the Mets if given a chance at regular time.

Vic Sage Jun 04 2008 10:29 AM

i don't like the AAAA designation as a predictor or label for a young player. I see it as more of an after-the-fact assessment of a career. A guy tears up AA and AAA, and then gets a chance in the majors, but doesn't hit enough. He gets sent down, hits well, comes back up, and doesn't hit again. He gets cut and picked up by another club, enticed by strong minor league numbers. He's 26-27, still young enough to take a chance on. Maybe he finally hangs on to play (usually a corner slot) for a year or 2, as a platoon player or semi-starter on a bad team. But he puts up replacement-level numbers and is traded/released/sent down/benched when the team improves. Maybe he bounces around for a few years, with some AAA seasons in between stints as a backup OF/1b/PHer with various clubs. He's now in his early 30s and gets an offer from a Japanese club as one of their designated gaijin hitters. He becomes a slugger again, for a few years, but hates sushi so comes back when another major league team offers him a spring training invite. But at this point, he's too old and, though he outhits some of the rookie prospects in March, he rips his hammy and starts looking for coaching work. Now that's a AAAA player. But to look at some kid in AA or AAA, who may have had a cup of coffee but has never yet gotten a serious look at the major league level, and bypass him despite solid production because some scout says "he's a AAAA player" is alot of hoo ha. Too often, scouts get seduced by tools over production and are suspicious of guys (especially older guys) with less obvious talents who nevertheless put up solid numbers. If Billy Beane has done anything for baseball, i think it is in legitimizing an approach that attempts to correct for this kind of scouting bias.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 04 2008 10:42 AM

Vic Sage wrote: i don't like the AAAA designation as a predictor or label for a young player. I see it as more of an after-the-fact assessment of a career. That's how I see it too.

Willets Point Jun 04 2008 10:44 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: ="Vic Sage"]i don't like the AAAA designation as a predictor or label for a young player. I see it as more of an after-the-fact assessment of a career. That's how I see it too. That makes sense and upon reflection that's the way I usually hear it applied.

AG/DC Jun 04 2008 10:48 AM

But assesments are educated guesses at what a guy will be at the end of it all, if given half a chance, so it is used that way. The idea that Pascucci and Petagine and Brazell get held out on those assessments and their suggestion that they won't hit at the MLB level, and the Mets are instead promoting a guy they know won't hit there... well that feeds frustration, and insurrection against old-school assessments.

attgig Jun 05 2008 08:55 AM Re: OOOO

Mex17 wrote: ="Willets Point"]Nicely put. Would be interesting if there were a level of independent AAAA teams around to put pressure on MLB players and MLB teams though. I think that the Atlantic League comes pretty close to that. would be great if mlb went the way of european soccer leagues, and the 2 last place teams of mlb got sent down to AAAA and the top 2 AAAA team went up to the mlb.

RealityChuck Jun 05 2008 09:13 AM

You wouldn't have thought so back in 1962.

Vic Sage Jun 05 2008 09:51 AM

]But assesments are educated guesses at what a guy will be at the end of it all, if given half a chance, so it is used that way. The idea that Pascucci and Petagine and Brazell get held out on those assessments and their suggestion that they won't hit at the MLB level, and the Mets are instead promoting a guy they know won't hit there... well that feeds frustration, and insurrection against old-school assessments. I agree with you. By "after-the-fact assessment", i mean an assessment made at the end of a career, in retrospect. Not an assessment you make going forward. But you're right; they do make those judgements, and it can be quite damaging. Petegine is perfect example of a AAAA player. Here's a guy who absolutely tore up the minors, with a career OPS close to 1.000 in over 2,500 ABs. But he was a guy without obvious talents... drafted by Houston as a free agent; then, after a cup of coffee with the `Stros, he's traded to SD, where he got a decent shot at age 24. He didn't do much, and got traded to the Mets. Over 2 seasons, he wasn't given that much of a shot, but he didn't do anyting with the opportunities he did get. Then off to the Reds, where he got another look with only mediocre results. At age 27, he went off to Japan and played well for a number of years. He came back in 2005, for a brief appearance with Boston, and then with Seattle in 06. And that was it. I think you can look at that career and say "AAAA" player. He was not a top draft pick with prodigious talents... no speed, no glove, no arm. He was a LHed 1b with limited power who hit line drives and took walks. Maybe, if the Mets in `96-`97 had given him more of a chance, he might have developed into a productive regular, but they went with the more obvious talent of Huskey at 1b in 96, with Brogna still there, then they got Olerud in 97. As a backup, Matt Franco, a similar player, outhit Petegine as the LHed 1b backup bat off the bench that year, and, as result, carved a little niche for himself. So, maybe Roberto got squeezed for his subtler skills, but he never made the most of his limited opportunities and so was a co-conspirator in his career's limitations. But a guy like Brazell, a 5th round pick with prodigious power, who has had 38 major league ABs since 2004, who is still only 27 and coming off a 2007 season where he pounded the PCL, is not somebody who should be branded "AAAA" at this point. If, 10 years from now, Brazell has accumulated at least a season's worth of ABs and didn't do much with them, then that's an assessment you could fairly make, looking back at his career.

Willets Point Jun 05 2008 09:59 AM

I was going to a lot of Tides games when Petagine was playing there. The attractions of minor league games are often not baseball-related but when he was batting it was electric. I think he set an International League record (or maybe it was just the Tides record) for HR's in a season. Of course that's a mixed bag record because it means that his slugging prowess didn't result in much time called up to the bigs and thus he could accumulate a lot of homers at AAA. Anyhow, I always felt bad for Petagine that he never caught on in the majors.

Vic Sage Jun 05 2008 10:14 AM

that was his big power year. Mostly, though he was a 15-20 hr guy. So, his power wasn't really eye popping. But the fact that he had a career .400 OB% was probably not given its proper respect amongst pre-Moneyball era scouts. line drives and BBs can make you a "professional hitter", but HRs and SBs get you to the show.

AG/DC Jun 05 2008 01:55 PM

But why the devil can't a team like Kansas City find it worth their time to throw 70 September at-bats to Brazell? Worst that can happen is that you're delighted to find out that you were wrong about him. Actually, the worst that can happen ist that you find out that you were right about him. I half wonder if, hadn't Pedro Martinez intervened, Mike Jacobs might still be bouncing around the minors, because "that loopy swing won't work against big league high heat."