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Omar watch?

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 24 2008 08:16 PM

With Wright taking a day off and Beltran getting tossed, the team had exactly ONE decent major league bat on the field. A 137 million dollar payroll, and ONE decent bat. I know Church is coming back and Wright won't get many more days off and Beltran won't get tossed in many games, but still- the way this team is designed, if Reyes and Wright and Beltran aren't doing everything, they can't win. Church will help, but how much blame for the whole concussion disaster belongs to Omar? Frustrating.

Mex17 Jun 24 2008 08:32 PM

I think that he gets one more managerial decision (either keeping Manuel or one more hire) plus another foray into the Free Agent/Trade market in order to retool this team. This coming international signing period will be important for him also.

AG/DC Jun 24 2008 08:59 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 25 2008 09:23 AM

Jerry Manuel is unlikely to make Delgado rally against time. Jerry Manuel is unlikely to make Brian Schneider the hitter he's never been. Jerry Manuel is unlikely to get Church and Alou off the DL, ready to play, and to keep them off. Jerry Manuel is unlikely to make Castillo more than the gimmicky hitter he is. Jerry Manuel is unlikely to help Jose Valentin cheat death one more time in order to contribute at the big-league level. It's a tall order he's being asked to fill. It seems 2007 was a lot like 2001, where we realize that we should have capitalized on the previous year, because that was the small window of opportunity. It seems 2008 is a lot like 2002, when it became clear that our missed opportunity two years before wasn't just the way the cookie crumbled, but a cold hard reality, a realization whose denial cost a manager his job. Maybe 2009 will continue the trend and it'll be the year (it took two years the first time around) the team realizes that the problem is systemic, and not directly related to the field general, and they make a GM change. If it takes two years, there will be an intermediate step before the management overhaul, and that'll be the re-signing of Tom Glavine.

AG/DC Jun 24 2008 09:00 PM

Elster88 Jun 24 2008 09:04 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 24 2008 09:34 PM

That's a scary picture you paint. It's not as bad as it was: Santana Wright Reyes Beltran Maine Pelfrey Church We never had anything close to those (young!) horses in 2001-2002. It's a good start. Now cut the dead weight and fill in the rest in 2009.

Nymr83 Jun 24 2008 09:06 PM

i think a GM necessarily needs a certain amount of time to have "his plan" implemented. i think when you look at this year's roster you can fairly say that it is both: A. Omar's team, and B. a "win now" club that doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt that the same guys will be better next year. If the Mets don't make the playoffs or at least come strong down the stretch and give Shea a penant-race sendoff I'd fire omar at season's end. i see no reason to do it now though.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 25 2008 05:56 AM

Well, the reason you would do it now is if you don't want Omar to make any trade deadline decisions. Like Elster said, this team has a very good core and only lacks the complimentary parts (and a first baseman) to be a championship-caliber team. I worry that Minaya might trade away part of that core in an attempt at short-term success. I don't stay awake at night, but part of me doesn't trust him at this point.

smg58 Jun 25 2008 08:31 AM

It's a tough call. I do think that Minaya is more to blame for the Mets current predicament than Randolph was. And I think last night's game proved that the team needs a lot more than a new manager. If you're concerned about the deadline, you need to act quickly. It's possible that either a) the Mets would be better off selling rather than buying, or b) Minaya would be so desperate to do anything to win now that he's willing to do a Kazmir/Zambrano equivalent deal. If either is true, or at least likely, the Mets should have a new GM in place by the end of the All-Star break.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 25 2008 08:41 AM

Me, I think a clever GM can figure out a way to trade Oliver Perez without giving up on 2008. I'd trade him for youth and replace him in the rotation with Vargas (still don't understand why he was DFA'ed) or Orlando Hernandez (if he ever comes back) or with whoever comes back in the Perez deal.

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 08:44 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 25 2008 08:49 AM

He can probably trade him and either a major or minor league reliever and see if he can get a batsmith. That's what Nady cost.

Mex17 Jun 25 2008 08:46 AM

I'm more concerned over Jeff Wilpon ordering short-sighted "future be damned" moves as opposed to Minaya doing them on his own just to save his skin.

attgig Jun 25 2008 09:11 AM

I think the players are to blame. they're all sucking.

seawolf17 Jun 25 2008 09:18 AM

I would love an Omar watch! I'd always know what time it was on his planet.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 25 2008 09:30 AM

attgig wrote: I think the players are to blame. they're all sucking. Who? Brian Schneider? Marlon Anderson? Damion Easley? Fernando Tatis? Trot Nixon? This is no surprise that these guys aren't very good. Carlos Delgado? Pedro Martinez? Luis Castillo? Not a huge surprise their production has sharply declined. Moises Alou? El Duque? Known injury risks. I think the only players you can point a finger at are Oliver Perez and Aaron Heilman, who have both been surprisingly bad this year. The rest of this mess is all Omar.

Centerfield Jun 25 2008 09:33 AM

Are they to blame? What if you're asking them to be something they are not? The most frustrating part of this year is how predictable it was that this lineup would be lousy. Consider, 1. Reyes: Having a bounce-back year. 2. Castillo: I guess he could be labeled as a disappointment, but only a mild one. His BA is lower than in the past, but his OBP is about what you would expect. 3. Wright: Not having the year he had last year, but by no means is he having a bad year. He's within the realm of what you could expect. 4. Beltran: Again, not having a great year, but with an .862 OPS, he's within what you could reasonably expect from him. 5. Alou: Predictably hurt. Performing as you would expect him to perform. 6. Delgado: Predictably old and bad. Performing as you would expect him to perform. 7. Church: A pleasant surprise, better than we would have thought. Unfortunately, he's hurt. 8. Schneider: Performing exactly as you would expect him to perform. So, considering no one is really underperforming when gauged against reasonable expectations, who is to blame?

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 09:57 AM

seawolf17 wrote: I would love an Omar watch! I'd always know what time it was on his planet. What are you waiting for?

Nymr83 Jun 25 2008 11:46 AM

]I worry that Minaya might trade away part of that core in an attempt at short-term success you think he'll trade Wright? Santana? Beltran? Maine? i don't think so. who do you think he'll trade away thats part of the "core" of a potentially successful mets team?

Mex17 Jun 25 2008 11:47 AM

Nymr83 wrote: ]I worry that Minaya might trade away part of that core in an attempt at short-term success you think he'll trade Wright? Santana? Beltran? Maine? i don't think so. who do you think he'll trade away thats part of the "core" of a potentially successful mets team? IMO, the "core" consists of Wright, Reyes, and Santana. That's it. Everyone else should be available in the right deal.

smg58 Jun 25 2008 11:48 AM

Centerfield wrote: So, considering no one is really underperforming when gauged against reasonable expectations, who is to blame? The person whose unreasonable expectations got Luis Castillo a four-year contract. And who let the need for another OF/1B who belongs in the major leagues, can actually hit, and is not a converted infielder go completely unfilled.

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 11:50 AM

And you think Minaya is going to trade one of them?

Nymr83 Jun 25 2008 11:50 AM

Mex17 wrote: ="Nymr83"] ]I worry that Minaya might trade away part of that core in an attempt at short-term success you think he'll trade Wright? Santana? Beltran? Maine? i don't think so. who do you think he'll trade away thats part of the "core" of a potentially successful mets team? IMO, the "core" consists of Wright, Reyes, and Santana. That's it. Everyone else should be available in the right deal. thats fine. i'd be more protective of Maine than Reyes at this point. but i really want to hear from vince who he thinks minaya will deal away in desperation ]And you think Minaya is going to trade one of them? it was vince, not mex, who made that comment

Vic Sage Jun 25 2008 11:54 AM

the last time Omar ran a franchise and he felt like his time might be running out (in that case, because the franchise might be contracted or sold), he traded minor leaguers Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. Do we still want to give him the rest of the year to right the ship? a ship that is floundering as a direct result of the decisions he's made to date?

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 11:55 AM

Right. Sorry. Mex fears Wilpon. Same question, different subject: And you think Wilpon is going to trade one of them?

Nymr83 Jun 25 2008 12:25 PM

]he traded minor leaguers Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. there are no such prospects in the mets system.

smg58 Jun 25 2008 01:10 PM

Nymr83 wrote: there are no such prospects in the mets system. There aren't, but he could still deal Martinez or Niese for a two-month rental, or for somebody we'll wish we didn't have next April.

Frayed Knot Jun 25 2008 01:15 PM

I tend to cut Omar some slack for that Colon deal as he was told at the time that his team was going to be contracted and there was no reason to build for tomorrow. That doesn't mean he WON'T make a bad deal here, I just don't buy the idea that it's part of a tendancy of his.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 25 2008 01:16 PM

"Core" guys who I think Omar might trade: Reyes Beltran Well, that's not a very long list, and I don't think it's very likely he would (which is why I said I'm not losing sleep), but I could definitely see these guys going to another team for 50 cents on the dollar if Omar was desperate enough.

Frayed Knot Jun 25 2008 01:18 PM

Why do you think he'd dump Reyes and/or Beltran at all much less at a discount?

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 01:25 PM

Under what rationale would that help the team for now, a week or a day? If he's trying to save his job, he's going to sell out the future for the present, and those guys are the present. He'd have to get perennial all-stars in return.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 25 2008 01:26 PM

="Frayed Knot"]Why do you think he'd dump Reyes and/or Beltran at all much less at a discount? I don't think he would. I fear he might. There is no reason for him to do it, but I think Omar might want to make a big-time trade, and they're probably the only commodities on this team that would get anything in return.

Frayed Knot Jun 25 2008 01:41 PM

But then the 50 cents on the dollar part doesn't make sense. You only do that for guys you WANT to get rid of, not for players of value.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 25 2008 01:49 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: But then the 50 cents on the dollar part doesn't make sense. You only do that for guys you WANT to get rid of, not for players of value. Yeah, but you could wind up giving away a valuable player for what you think is equal value, but wind up getting much less in return, especially if you consider perceived short term value versus long term value. I'm thinking along the lines of Mora for Bordick.

Frayed Knot Jun 25 2008 02:21 PM

The possibility of a stupid trade exists anywhere at anytime by anyone ... but giving up Mora - at a time where they had a contending club and desperately needed a SS - is hardly an equivelent situation to dumping one or both of two legit All-Stars in some kind of quick-fix scheme. If you're desperate to contend you add to those guys, you don't shop them.

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 02:33 PM

The contemporary equivelant of Mora, a late-blooming, neglected, and unheralded talent who may or may not be on the verge, is... I dunno, Muniz? I guess there is none, not on the offensive side of the ball, anyhow. Pagan might have been had he stayed healthy.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 25 2008 02:39 PM

="Frayed Knot"]If you're desperate to contend you add to those guys, you don't shop them. Right, I understand. But you don't think it's possible to trade a core player in an attempt to add to the team as a whole? Say (and this is just off the top of my head) Toronto offered Vernon Wells and AJ Burnett for Beltran and Pelfrey. Or Houston offered Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee for Reyes, Fernando Martinez, Pelfrey and Niese. You don't think it's possible Omar could make a move like that? I don't think it's probable, but I worry anyway.

Frayed Knot Jun 25 2008 02:49 PM

]Say (and this is just off the top of my head) Toronto offered Vernon Wells and AJ Burnett for Beltran and Pelfrey. Or Houston offered Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee for Reyes, Fernando Martinez, Pelfrey and Niese. You don't think it's possible Omar could make a move like that? I don't think it's probable, but I worry anyway. Anything's possible. But those scenarios you lay out above are stars for stars deals. The "50 cents on the dollar" comment - which is what started me jumping in on all this - implies something totally different and for very different reasons.

attgig Jun 25 2008 10:12 PM

Centerfield wrote: Are they to blame? What if you're asking them to be something they are not? 3. Wright: .253 with RISP 6/14 hrs are solo 4. Beltran: .301 w/ RISP 5/11 hrs are solo 5. Delgado: .197 w/ RISP. 8/11 hrs are solo when your 3-4-5 hitters are producing like that, reyes and castillo's obp is useless.

AG/DC Jun 25 2008 10:32 PM

I come not to beat up on our GM, but I disagree with the implication that Beltran's and Wright's clutch numbers are undermining an otherwise well-constructed lineup. We've been faking it in left and right all year long. At first we have no plan B when the unlikelihood of plan A flourishing was clear.

attgig Jun 25 2008 11:29 PM

AG/DC wrote: I come not to beat up on our GM, but I disagree with the implication that Beltran's and Wright's clutch numbers are undermining an otherwise well-constructed lineup. We've been faking it in left and right all year long. At first we have no plan B when the unlikelihood of plan A flourishing was clear. but that's part of it. sure the rest of the lineup sucks, but you'd win a few more games if your 3/4 hitters were actually doing something when your 1/2 hitters were on base. Honestly, I'm annoyed that forever and a day, everyone was hating on Willie, but now that he's gone, everyone's hating on Omar. I'm not the biggest fan of the guy (any liking of omar disappeared with the 4 year contract to castillo), but there is something called a team. You can't scapegoat the manager and gm when the team isn't producing. The constant fingerpointing is annoying, and I figure I'll fingerpoint the player that everyone loves because you can't POSSIBLY hate david wright, he's Jesus, second coming. yes, even he's not pulling his weight this year.

Nymr83 Jun 25 2008 11:38 PM

he's not hitting as well as last year to this point, but at a .369 OBP/.466 SLG he's not nearly the problem. if the whole team did that they'd lead the league in runs. Beltran's numbers are equally fine, and reyes must have picked things up without my noticing because his OBP is back at the .350 level of the last 2 years. castillo has even gotten on at a .350 clip, though thats not enough when you slug .300. the problem in this lineup is delgado and leftfield producing nothing while rightfield is only productive when church is healthy. it doesnt help that schneider isnt a good hitter (though you knew that coming in and he's hit beyond reasonable expectations) and the bench has been really bad too

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 26 2008 04:32 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: But those scenarios you lay out above are stars for stars deals. The "50 cents on the dollar" comment - which is what started me jumping in on all this - implies something totally different and for very different reasons. Then I apologize for choosing a poor phrase. By 50 cents on the dollar, I meant only that the value of the players returning in the trade might be, after factoring in production, salary and longevity, worth half the value surrendered. I didn't mean to say it would be a "dump" trade, if that's what that phrase implies.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 26 2008 04:42 AM

attgig wrote: TI'll fingerpoint the player that everyone loves because you can't POSSIBLY hate david wright, he's Jesus, second coming. yes, even he's not pulling his weight this year. Jeez, kinda tough to hate on a good fielding third baseman with a .369 OBP and a .466 SLG who's only making 5 million dollars this year. And as to his "clutchiness", I'll have to use the A-Rod argument- he's got 56 RBI this year (I know, awful stat), on pace for, like 115. Are all those coming in non-"clutch" situations?

AG/DC Jun 26 2008 06:00 AM

Hey, Seawolf hasn't bought his Omar Watch yet.

attgig Jun 26 2008 10:10 AM

Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: ="attgig"]TI'll fingerpoint the player that everyone loves because you can't POSSIBLY hate david wright, he's Jesus, second coming. yes, even he's not pulling his weight this year. Jeez, kinda tough to hate on a good fielding third baseman with a .369 OBP and a .466 SLG who's only making 5 million dollars this year. And as to his "clutchiness", I'll have to use the A-Rod argument- he's got 56 RBI this year (I know, awful stat), on pace for, like 115. Are all those coming in non-"clutch" situations? it's a joke that he won the gold glove last year. [url=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&sortColumn=fieldingPct&sortOrder=true&split=81&qualified=null&season=2007&seasonType=2]How many errors[/url] did he have and win the gold glove? He'll make spectacular plays, but always makes me nervous on the routine. 56 rbis. played in every single inning... no correllation... right batting 253 with RISP, and you're not willing to admit that he's not doing what he's capable of? I've been frustrated with how often we've left the bases loaded only to come away the inning without scoring a single run. And yeah, the whole team is to blame, but I just want to emphasize the WHOLE team, not everyone except Jesus second coming.

AG/DC Jun 26 2008 10:29 AM

It's not a joke that he won the gold glove. Any more than the Gold Glove is a joke. Everybody has different meaurements for defense. Of course you're nervous. You have a stake in his performance. I don't think he deserved it either, but until we can find an objective measure and stop using defensive performance only when it suits our point, we shouldn't worry about the Gold Glove. He's more or less a good fielder. His worst problem historically is a scattershot arm. I think everyone acknowledges that "he's not hitting as well as last year to this point," but the Second Coming crap is a straw man argument. He's not pulling his weight? You know where Wright ranks in salary on this team? Tenth. He sits behind Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner, Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and Luis Castillo. How many of them have pulled the weight Wright has?

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jun 26 2008 10:33 AM

="attgig"]it's a joke that he won the gold glove last year. I agree, but he is a good fielder. The Fielding Bible has him at +13 last year, Baseball Reference shows he has a career RFg of 2.64 (vs the league's 2.33), Baseball Prospectus shows a career 105 Rate2, and THT has him averaging about 4 fielding Win Shares a year. The very worst can say about his fielding is that he's only average, but he's probably better than that. As for his offense, yeah he's off by a little bit this year, but he still has a 20.8 VORP, a .306 EQA, and a 129 OPS+. Wright is not part of the problem on this team. At all.

attgig Jun 26 2008 11:53 AM

the point of all my posts is saying that, everyone is a part of the team. the team is doing crappy. everyone's responsible. I'm tired of the finger pointing. ooh, fire willie, and we'll never lose again. oooh, now fire omar, and we'll never lose again. it's a freakin team, and everyone is responsible. the fingerpointing is lame, childish, and i'm tired of it.

AG/DC Jun 26 2008 12:01 PM

I agree that scapegoating is bad. I don't agree that everyone is doing it.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 26 2008 12:18 PM

I thought that once we fired Willie, we'd never lose again.