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Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

Benjamin Grimm Jul 08 2008 09:35 AM

Hey! Remember last September, when I'd keep posting the Mets' playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus? Wasn't it fun seeing the number go from 99.9 per cent down to zero in a matter of weeks? (I was originally posting the stats in order to get comfort from the high odds, but it went terribly, terribly awry.) Anyway, I took a peek just now and here's where we're at: Average wins by position in NL East: 90.0 85.3 81.3 76.7 61.9 90.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 48 42 .526 87.4 74.6 51.72104 5.64145 57.36250 -4.14507 4.42151 Marlins 46 43 .470 80.3 81.7 8.83299 2.19664 11.02963 2.35417 -5.27805 Mets 45 44 .518 85.2 76.8 31.09188 6.49587 37.58774 5.13710 17.12308 Braves 42 48 .518 80.4 81.6 8.35349 2.48949 10.84298 -1.96723 -16.64145 Nationals 34 56 .385 61.9 100.1 .00060 .00000 .00060 -0.00057 -0.00620 I'm guessing that the Mets have a softer schedule than the Marlins do the rest of the way, because their odds are considerably higher despite them being currently behind Florida in the standings. If this data is correct, the Mets can win the division with as few as 88 wins, and, if they get to 91, would really be in good shape. To get to 88 wins, they'd have to go 43-30 (.589) and to get to 91, they'd have to go 46-27 (.630). I think our best hope is to have the Phillies win 84 games or fewer, which seems unlikely, but it would allow the Mets to win with 85 games. (40-33, .548) For this to happen, the Phils would have to go 36-36 (.500). (My evil plan does kind of rely on the Marlins fading and no longer being a factor. And of course, that might not happen at all.)

Methead Jul 08 2008 10:00 AM

"I'm guessing that the Mets have a softer schedule than the Marlins do the rest of the way, because their odds are considerably higher despite them being currently behind Florida in the standings." Could be the schedule, but the Mets also have a higher run differential than Florida. The Marlins' run differential is actually negative.

AG/DC Jul 08 2008 10:03 AM

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 08 2008 10:23 AM

The Jerry Era looks like Charlie Brown's shirt.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 08 2008 11:09 AM

The PECOTA adjusted version has the Mets at 38% to win the division against the Phillies' 49.4%. Then again, PECOTA had Delgado hitting .265/.343/.471 instead of .239/.318/.433.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 08 2008 11:15 AM

At this stage of the season, those BP playoff odds are highly volatile. Thus, the Mets win three of four from Philly and have their odds escalate from slim to good. And that's not so much a knock on the BP system as it is an accurate reflection of the fact that there's still half a season left and for all of the Mets controversy this year, they were never far from the division leaders.

TransMonk Jul 08 2008 11:45 AM

ESPN has added playoff chances to their standings page. They have the Mets much lower than BP. I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

Frayed Knot Jul 08 2008 11:49 AM

BP definitely takes run differential and schedule into consideration. ESPN might not look at either.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 08 2008 02:11 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: BP definitely takes run differential and schedule into consideration. ESPN might not look at either. ESPN uses [url=http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp]coolstandings[/url]' formula to calculate playoff odds. It's a variation on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem combined with, umm, a coin toss? Am I reading that right?

Valadius Jul 09 2008 06:16 AM

Nate Silver (creator of PECOTA) has been working on another project this election season - [url]http://www.fivethirtyeight.com[/url]. It uses regression analysis to predict what's going to happen in November. I read it every day.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 09 2008 07:11 AM

In November, I predict that President Bush will pardon the White House Thanksgiving turkey.

AG/DC Jul 09 2008 07:28 AM

I like that that graph is updating.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 09 2008 02:22 PM

FWIW, the Mets have passed the Phils in the [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php]PECOTA-adjusted projections[/url], and are damn close in the [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php]original version[/url]. Not so much the [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddselo.php]ELO report[/url], though. C'mon ELO, don't bring us down. Bruce.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 09 2008 02:35 PM

Average wins by position in NL East: 90.0 85.5 81.4 76.6 61.5 90.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 48 43 .526 86.8 75.2 44.56620 5.58918 50.15538 -7.20712 -9.59211 Marlins 46 44 .464 79.2 82.8 6.04122 1.25933 7.30055 -3.72908 -4.92413 Mets 46 44 .525 86.2 75.8 38.69230 5.76567 44.45797 6.87023 20.37172 Braves 43 48 .523 81.3 80.7 10.69957 2.61042 13.30999 2.46701 -8.23942 Nationals 34 57 .385 61.5 100.5 .00072 .00000 .00072 .00012 -0.00881 The Mets are averaging 86.2 wins to the Phillies' 86.8.

Grote15 Jul 09 2008 08:27 PM Re: Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Hey! Remember last September, when I'd keep posting the Mets' playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus? Wasn't it fun seeing the number go from 99.9 per cent down to zero in a matter of weeks? (I was originally posting the stats in order to get comfort from the high odds, but it went terribly, terribly awry.) Anyway, I took a peek just now and here's where we're at: Average wins by position in NL East: 90.0 85.3 81.3 76.7 61.9 90.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 48 42 .526 87.4 74.6 51.72104 5.64145 57.36250 -4.14507 4.42151 Marlins 46 43 .470 80.3 81.7 8.83299 2.19664 11.02963 2.35417 -5.27805 Mets 45 44 .518 85.2 76.8 31.09188 6.49587 37.58774 5.13710 17.12308 Braves 42 48 .518 80.4 81.6 8.35349 2.48949 10.84298 -1.96723 -16.64145 Nationals 34 56 .385 61.9 100.1 .00060 .00000 .00060 -0.00057 -0.00620 I'm guessing that the Mets have a softer schedule than the Marlins do the rest of the way, because their odds are considerably higher despite them being currently behind Florida in the standings. If this data is correct, the Mets can win the division with as few as 88 wins, and, if they get to 91, would really be in good shape. To get to 88 wins, they'd have to go 43-30 (.589) and to get to 91, they'd have to go 46-27 (.630). I think our best hope is to have the Phillies win 84 games or fewer, which seems unlikely, but it would allow the Mets to win with 85 games. (40-33, .548) For this to happen, the Phils would have to go 36-36 (.500). (My evil plan does kind of rely on the Marlins fading and no longer being a factor. And of course, that might not happen at all.) Funny..88 was the lucky number i was speculating on..Can we have 5-10 stoopid losses played again? Nice work.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 10 2008 02:45 PM Re: Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

Benjamin Grimm wrote: To get to 88 wins, they'd have to go 43-30 (.589) and to get to 91, they'd have to go 46-27 (.630). I think our best hope is to have the Phillies win 84 games or fewer, which seems unlikely, but it would allow the Mets to win with 85 games. (40-33, .548) For this to happen, the Phils would have to go 36-36 (.500). Now, three days later, for the Mets to get to 88 wins they need to go 40 and 30 (.571). 91 wins would be 43-27 (.614). 85 wins would require 37-33 (a mere .529). To keep the Phillies to 84 wins, they'd have to go 34-35. (.493)

Benjamin Grimm Jul 12 2008 07:53 AM

Here's the latest. Mets at around 50% for making the playoffs, significantly better than the Marlins, with whom they're tied. Nationals, with the worst record in baseball, have the most infinitesimal playoff odds. Average wins by position in NL East: 91.3 86.6 82.2 77.4 62.7 91.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 51 43 .535 88.5 73.5 48.39887 9.30102 57.69988 2.94536 -16.35987 Marlins 49 44 .473 81.4 80.6 7.58727 3.03856 10.62583 1.45254 2.17291 Mets 49 44 .532 87.6 74.4 39.85823 10.02838 49.88662 .55925 28.89307 Braves 43 50 .521 79.9 82.1 4.15545 2.03353 6.18898 -2.94667 -7.67118 Nationals 36 58 .395 62.7 99.3 .00018 .00003 .00022 -0.00001 -0.00202

RealityChuck Jul 12 2008 08:10 AM

There are all very nice mental exercises, but ultimately silly and meaningless. Or have your forgotten that the Mets odds of making the playoffs in September 2007 -- from the same sources -- were 99%?

Benjamin Grimm Jul 12 2008 08:11 AM Re: Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

Clearly I didn't forget. Benjamin Grimm wrote: Hey! Remember last September, when I'd keep posting the Mets' playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus? Wasn't it fun seeing the number go from 99.9 per cent down to zero in a matter of weeks? (I was originally posting the stats in order to get comfort from the high odds, but it went terribly, terribly awry.)

RealityChuck Jul 12 2008 08:25 PM

Actually, it's a misnomer and misrepresenation* to call these "odds." It merely is a reflection of how often the teams won in their simulations. But the simulations are built on so many iffy assumptions as to make them meaningless: that players don't go into slumps, are not injured, that trades are not made, that past performance is a guarantee of future results, etc. All the numbers mean is that the simulations showed these results a certain percentage of the time. Their connection to the real world is tenuous at best and, at worse, no better than Madame Olga's crystal ball. *A typical tactic of sabermatricians, who often design models to determine certain characteristics and then claim the models prove or disprove something else.

AG/DC Jul 12 2008 09:40 PM

They're not meaningless. They have as much meaning as they represent. I don't know why you want to keep swinging the sweeping axe against those horrid statisticians. "Or have you forgotten...?" It's just obnoxious. If you really want to put your money on Madame Olga's guess, and I put mine on Baseball Prospectus, I'm certain I'll win more than you.

Nymr83 Jul 13 2008 12:17 AM

statistics are a form of mystical voodoo while baseball is won with "heart" "clutch" and "jeter-ness"

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 13 2008 08:28 AM

Don't forget me!

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 13 2008 09:06 AM

RealityChuck wrote: But the simulations are built on so many iffy assumptions as to make them meaningless: that players don't go into slumps, are not injured, that trades are not made, that past performance is a guarantee of future results, etc. All the numbers mean is that the simulations showed these results a certain percentage of the time. Actually, Baseball Prospectus now works injury probability into their PECOTA projections. Slumps and hot streaks will regress to a player's mean over a large enough sample size. Trades are not accounted for, but I don't think there's anyway to expect a system to project a team using players that aren't on their roster. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it is a fantastic tool for determining the probability of a future event, which is exactly what these odds try to do. Last year, the Mets were extremely likely to win the division heading into the final few games. That they didn't win the division is not an indictment of the odds, but rather an indication of how extremely unlikely the Mets' collapse was. Seeing how a collapse of that magnitude has only happened twice in the league's history, it seems like the odds were spot-on in their assessments.

AG/DC Jul 13 2008 12:28 PM

And that's where we keep losing Reality Chuck. If the outcome isn't guaranteed (of course it isn't) the results are "meaningless." He sees no value in shaving away unlikelhoods and arriving at most likely scenarios. I see a lot of value, and any good investor would, because while the most likely scenario, taken exactly, still remains highly improbable, the lion's share of outcomes are clustered around that, and would still pay off. (Plus he insists that factors aren't included which are.) An informed and analyzed opinion from Baseball Prospectus says the Nats will make the playoffs .00022% of the time. An un-imformed and un-analyzed opinion from a crystal ball would give the Nats the playoffs 27.6923% of the time. Which do you want to go with?

Benjamin Grimm Jul 18 2008 08:33 AM

Well, with the Mets and the Phillies in a dead heat for first place, I thought it might be interesting, I mean, "meaningless" to take another look at Baseball Prospectus' odds: Average wins by position in NL East: 92.0 87.3 82.7 78.0 61.3 92.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 52 44 .540 89.5 72.5 51.08884 11.22992 62.31876 2.29665 12.99139 Phillies 52 44 .534 88.3 73.7 38.96599 12.66505 51.63104 -1.22309 -3.12348 Marlins 50 45 .469 81.1 80.9 5.27686 2.81910 8.09596 -0.35266 -1.07733 Braves 45 50 .526 81.1 80.9 4.66821 3.00684 7.67505 -0.47074 -1.46060 Nationals 36 60 .390 61.3 100.7 .00010 .00000 .00010 .00000 -0.00013 Mets have a nice edge over the Phillies at this point. (That guarantees a division title, doesn't it? After all, I have no memory of what happened last season!) The NL's leading Wild Card candidate is the third-place Brewers. If the season were to end as BP is predicting, the first round of the NL playoffs would be Mets vs. Brewers and Cubs vs. Diamondbacks. (In the AL it would be Red Sox vs. Angels and White Sox vs. Rays.)

Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 21 2008 08:26 AM

W/L/Pct3/Avg W/Avg L/Champions/WildCard/Playoffs/1D Change/7D Change Nationals/38/ 61/.398/62.8/99.2/.00000/.00000/.00000/-0.00010/-0.00015 Ouch. They ran the remaining season a million times and the Nats never made the playoffs. Seattle, 7 games further out of first and with basically the same record, got in 108 times.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 22 2008 07:28 AM

Three games later, the Mets odds for the division title have increased, but their overall playoff odds have gone down, thanks to the Brewers having taken a bigger bite of the Wild Card odds. The Nationals have regained a small glimmer of hope. In the NL West, the Dodgers are now favored over Arizona. The BP playoff picture is now Mets/Brewers, Cubs/Dodgers, Red Sox/Angels and White Sox/Rays. Average wins by position in NL East: 91.2 86.6 82.3 77.7 62.8 91.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 53 46 .540 88.9 73.1 53.22209 6.17341 59.39550 .70964 -0.60971 Phillies 53 46 .530 87.4 74.6 36.74687 7.25895 44.00583 .26875 -8.85860 Marlins 52 47 .469 81.3 80.7 6.16526 1.64830 7.81356 -2.07461 -0.71365 Braves 47 52 .520 80.2 81.8 3.86572 1.16884 5.03456 1.23460 -3.12410 Nationals 38 61 .398 62.8 99.2 .00005 .00000 .00005 .00005 -0.00008

Benjamin Grimm Jul 28 2008 08:47 AM

The Mets have played six games (winning four of them) since I last posted an update in this thread. Here's where we're at now: Average wins by position in NL East: 91.9 87.1 82.5 78.1 59.8 91.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 57 48 .557 90.5 71.5 64.88740 6.90296 71.79036 5.13699 13.10450 Phillies 56 49 .527 87.3 74.7 27.72262 10.59879 38.32140 2.94875 -5.41568 Marlins 55 50 .472 81.8 80.2 5.23053 1.90949 7.14002 -2.26021 -2.74815 Braves 49 55 .524 80.0 82.0 2.15945 1.01150 3.17094 -1.65685 -0.62902 Nationals 38 67 .390 59.8 102.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 The Mets' postseason odds have taken a nice jump, partially at the expense of the Phillies. Marlins have pretty much held steady. (Hopefully the next three days will knock the Marlins back a bit.) Their numbers are surprisingly low, considering how close they are to the division lead. Milwaukee is still projected to be the Wild Card, but the Arizona has reclaimed the top spot in the NL West from the Dodgers. Cubs still project to the best record in the league, so the Mets' projected first-round opponent remains the Brewers. In the AL, the Red Sox are now favored by BP to win the East, and the Rays are now the leader for the Wild Card. First round ALCS would be Red Sox/White Sox and Angels/Rays. (Too bad Tampa Bay changed its name; we'd have Sox vs. Sox and Angels vs. Devils.)

AG/DC Jul 28 2008 09:26 AM

Wow, the Nats' probability has shrunk below five decimal places.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 05 2008 07:21 AM

Not surprisingly, the numbers for the Mets aren't as good as they had been. As of now, Baseball Prospectus is indicating that the Mets are likely to finish in second place, about two games behind the Phillies. (And four ahead of the Marlins. They continue to show little faith in Florida.) The Mets would also miss the Wild Card by three games. Projected first-round playoff matchups are: Cubs/Diamondbacks, Phillies/Brewers, Angels/Red Sox, and White Sox/Rays. Average wins by position in NL East: 90.7 86.6 82.3 76.7 61.4 90.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 61 50 .526 88.7 73.3 53.77300 7.38904 61.16204 .78008 20.56688 Marlins 59 53 .483 83.0 79.0 9.17123 2.87657 12.04780 .26577 1.72030 Mets 58 53 .545 87.3 74.7 36.52008 8.99489 45.51497 1.06234 -20.02667 Braves 51 61 .518 77.2 84.8 .53568 .14917 .68485 -0.28539 -1.84355 Nationals 42 70 .401 61.4 100.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000

Benjamin Grimm Sep 04 2008 03:40 PM

Wow, it's been a month since I last checked in on this thread. The numbers, not surprisingly, have gotten quite a bit better: Average wins by position in NL East: 91.8 87.6 81.8 71.1 62.8 91.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 79 61 .541 91.5 70.5 84.69912 1.43621 86.13531 9.39107 23.34427 Phillies 76 64 .519 87.7 74.3 15.06497 3.30597 18.37093 -8.83420 -20.06348 Marlins 71 69 .481 81.9 80.1 .23592 .01853 .25445 .01222 -2.28478 Braves 60 80 .492 71.1 90.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00013 Nationals 54 86 .401 62.8 99.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 At 86%, the Mets have the third highest playoff likelihood in the NL. (Behind the Brewers and the Cubs.) The Mets are averaging 91.5 wins in the BP scenarios, very close to the goal of 92 that Marlon Anderson set way back when 92 looked impossible. The Mets can get to 90 wins by playing .500 (11 and 11) the rest of the way, but I don't think that would be a good idea. Actually, if two or three of those 11 wins come against the Phillies, then .500 could actually be good enough. A .600 pace the rest of the way will leave the Mets with 92 wins, and, very likely, a division title. The Brewers remain the most likely Wild Card (and the Mets first-round opponent) as do the Red Sox. Yankees' playoff odds are down to 1.3%.

duan Sep 05 2008 04:58 AM

what is interesting is that those odds one month ago correctly interpreted the Marlins as having a false position vs the Mets.

Elster88 Sep 05 2008 06:00 AM

What's PCT3? It doesn't match the actual or projected record for the Marlins.

Vince Coleman Firecracker Sep 05 2008 06:04 AM

Elster88 wrote: What's PCT3? It doesn't match the actual or projected record for the Marlins. It's their adjusted win percentage, based on third order wins. [url=http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php]Here[/url]'s that info.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 06 2008 07:44 AM

Average wins by position in NL East: 91.4 88.0 82.4 71.8 62.1 91.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 79 62 .542 91.0 71.0 77.48213 2.43448 79.91661 -6.66992 5.90852 Phillies 77 64 .520 88.3 73.7 22.05458 4.30520 26.35979 6.66466 -0.96824 Marlins 72 69 .483 82.5 79.5 .46328 .03162 .49490 .23023 -0.65060 Braves 62 80 .492 71.8 90.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 54 88 .401 62.1 99.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies grab 6.6 percentage points from the Mets with last night's win. The wild card is becoming a little more likely for both teams, but the Brewers are still the overwhelming favorite to get the Card.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2008 09:36 AM

NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 80 63 .542 90.9 71.1 77.32940 2.90260 80.23200 .83837 .31720 Phillies 78 65 .521 88.5 73.5 22.50770 5.27997 27.78767 2.32856 .26487 Marlins 72 71 .482 81.6 80.4 .16290 .00446 .16736 -0.11565 .01466 Braves 62 82 .488 70.5 91.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 56 88 .404 63.4 98.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 The doubleheader split works slightly in the Mets favor, as would be expected. (The lead remains the same, but we're two games closer to the end of the season.) Marlins are barely hanging in there. Their tragic number for the division is 12, and for the Wild Card is 10. Hopefully they'll win against the Phillies tonight (and tomorrow... and Wednesday...) to keep their hopes alive for a few more days. Dodgers are now at 76.6% for the playoffs, compared to Arizona's 23%. Yankees are at .27216%. Four teams are at 98% or higher: Tampa Bay, Boston, the Cubs, and the Angels. Mets still projected to open the playoffs against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 08 2008 09:52 AM

Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: The PECOTA adjusted version has the Mets at 38% to win the division against the Phillies' 49.4%. Then again, PECOTA had Delgado hitting .265/.343/.471 instead of .239/.318/.433. Delgado right now: .261/.346/.504 PECOTA WINS!!!!

Benjamin Grimm Sep 09 2008 08:11 AM

Phillies, by winning last night while the Mets were idle, gain 6.86164 points. Most of those come at the expense of the Brewers, who lost. The Mets only drop by 1.84834.

Nymr83 Sep 09 2008 10:55 AM

will tonight's game get played? its been pouring for an hour or so

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 10 2008 09:23 AM

I'd like to announce the Brewers have finally caught up to us in the Loss column, which is obviously good news in the event we make bad news. The Astros and Cardinals haven't given up yet, that's fun. I wouldn't have thought this was possible, but there's a chance that the Cubs series coming up could be for Home Feild and the West champs in the first round. We're 3 back from the Cubbies.

TransMonk Sep 10 2008 09:30 AM

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wouldn't have thought this was possible, but there's a chance that the Cubs series coming up could be for Home Feild and the West champs in the first round. We're 3 back from the Cubbies. I think we're 5 back from the Cubs, but it still may make that series a bigger one than it already was. The Mets have more wins than any MLB team since the day Manuel took over.

HahnSolo Sep 10 2008 09:41 AM

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wouldn't have thought this was possible, but there's a chance that the Cubs series coming up could be for Home Feild and the West champs in the first round. We're 3 back from the Cubbies. It is also possible that we could have a repeat of that Braves series in 2000, where the Cubs and Mets could both clinch playoff spots on different nights in the same series.

AG/DC Sep 10 2008 10:01 AM

You know, the world ain't right when that can happen.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2008 11:25 AM

Average wins by position in NL East: 91.5 88.1 81.7 71.0 63.0 91.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 81 63 .544 91.2 70.8 82.82520 3.92908 86.75428 8.48640 10.01004 Phillies 79 66 .521 88.3 73.7 17.09625 9.62643 26.72268 -7.94178 -0.48245 Marlins 73 72 .482 81.7 80.3 .07855 .00687 .08542 .02258 -0.15681 Braves 63 82 .489 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 56 89 .402 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Yesterday's action gains the Mets 8.48 points, mostly, but not entirely, at the expense of the Phillies. Philadelphia's wild card chances continue to inch upward as the Brewers continue to slide. Brewers currently have playoff odds of 73.20480, with 63.58383 of that coming from the Wild Card column. Their upcoming four-game series with the Phillies has the potential to dramatically shift the odds for both teams. Same four teams as before (Tampa Bay, Boston, the Cubs, and the Angels) have percentages over 98. For those teams, only a collapse (there's that word again) would keep them from the post-season. In the NL West, the Dodgers are now at 86%, while the Diamondbacks have dropped to 13%. Mets first-round playoff opponent is still projected to be Milwaukee, while the Cubs would play the Dodgers. First round in the AL would be Rays vs. White Sox, and Angels vs. the wild-card Red Sox. The yet-to-be-eliminated team with the slimmest playoff hopes is the Texas Rangers, at .00005. (Tigers are at ..01192 and the Giants at .01192.)

metsguyinmichigan Sep 10 2008 11:52 AM

Considering our recent performance against Milwaukee, I'm very OK with that. Bring 'em on. They'll just be happy to be there.

Centerfield Sep 10 2008 12:00 PM

Milwaukee would throw CC Sabathia twice in a 5 game series. A small part of me would rather see Philly take the Wild Card over the Brewers.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2008 12:03 PM

Well, maybe. But if the Brewers go down to the final couple of games of the season before they clinch the playoff berth, they may not be positioned to have Sabathia start Game 1.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 10 2008 12:07 PM

CC's about to start a gay dame now with Cincy. I don't think we can afford to be too picky about how tough the playoff opponents are, but if like, Houston sneaks in I won't complain. Reds lost Brandon Phillips for the year with a broken hand or finger in last nite's game.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2008 12:19 PM

True. Playoff opponents aren't supposed to be easy. (And the easy ones can be surprisingly tough, as with the 2006 Cardinals.) I've been glad to see the Brewers losing. With the Mets only a half game behind them the Wild Card is becoming a viable safety net. But it's a double-edged sword; if the Brewers continue to slump, the Phillies will roll right over them. I'm hoping that CC does the "stopper" thing today, snaps the Brewers out of their funk, and positions them for a big weekend in Philadelphia.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 06:57 AM

Average wins by position in NL East: 91.6 87.6 82.3 71.5 62.7 91.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 82 63 .543 91.5 70.5 90.12007 1.92889 92.04895 5.29467 5.91364 Phillies 79 67 .519 87.7 74.3 9.75977 6.76654 16.52630 -10.19638 -1.84463 Marlins 74 72 .484 82.3 79.7 .12017 .00936 .12953 .04411 -0.12492 Braves 64 82 .492 71.5 90.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 56 90 .403 62.7 99.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets now over the 90% mark, gaining just over 5 points. Phillies drop 10 in yesterday's action, losing some of that to the Mets and some to the Brewers, who gained about 7.5 Meanwhile, the Angels are the first team to get to 100% with yesterday's clincher. Yankees drop to .09093%. The Dodgers gained 6.84691 points yesterday, joining the 90+ club with a score of 93.10625%. Remember earlier this season when Arizona was being called the "best team in baseball?" Their playoff odds have now dropped to 6.76231, which is only slightly better than the odds of St. Louis and Houston, who are both between 5 and 6 points. The Mets are projected to win 91.5 games, which is very close to the 92 that Marlon Anderson set as a goal way back in the Willie Randolph dark ages. If the Mets do win 92 and the division title, I hope that little chart that he scribbled in the Mets clubhouse goes to Cooperstown.

AG/DC Sep 11 2008 07:20 AM

Ninety-two percent sure feels better when we're climbing up from 72% a few weeks ago. Last year, when we dropped from 99 to 92, my head tried to take comfort in the heft of that number, but the my stomache saw the trend and I was sick. My stomache was rigtht then and my head was wrong. Fortunately, they're pretty together this year, sharing cautious optimism.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2008 07:25 AM

I hear you. Here's another way of looking at the road ahead. There are 33 games left that we care about. (I'm putting aside the Wild Card here, because that makes things too complicated.) Of those 33, 17 will be played by the Mets and 16 by the Phillies. With a magic number of 14, we need a happy outcome in 14 of those 33 games. That means things have to go our way 42.4% of the time for the Mets to win the division. Let's hope that that number steadily decreases in the days ahead.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 12 2008 07:06 AM

NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 82 63 .544 91.5 70.5 87.19173 3.00352 90.19525 -1.85370 3.60872 Phillies 80 67 .521 88.2 73.8 12.70688 9.92088 22.62777 6.10147 2.93264 Marlins 74 72 .484 82.3 79.7 .10138 .01305 .11443 -0.01510 -0.15024 Braves 65 82 .493 71.9 90.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 56 90 .403 62.7 99.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 The Mets were idle last night, but the Phillies defeated the Brewers. The Mets NL East odds drop by about 3 points, but they gain a little over 1 in the wild card hunt, for a net loss of almost 2 points. The Mets magic number remains at 14, but their NHOP* rises from 42.4% to 43.75%. (That's not good. We want our NHOP to get down to zero.) *NHOP: Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage. With 32 games that matter (17 for the Mets and 15 for the Phillies) we need 14 happy outcomes to reduce the magic number to zero. The lower our NHOP, the better the playoff odds. NHOP is pronounced with two syllables: N-HOP.

Frayed Knot Sep 12 2008 07:40 AM

]NHOP: Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage And here I was thinking that that pancake place had cut back on their overseas operations.

Frayed Knot Sep 12 2008 12:31 PM

I actually like this N-HOP concept. We started the final 17 game stretch last year with our N-HOP at 33%

Nymr83 Sep 12 2008 02:41 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: ]NHOP: Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage And here I was thinking that that pancake place had cut back on their overseas operations. they've cut back on their hours, i was very upset to find them closed at 1 AM on a saturday.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 14 2008 05:43 AM

Baseball Prospectus hasn't updated its page yet, but the Mets NHOP took a hit yesterday, with the Mets getting only one happy outcome in three games. We're now at 44.8%. The Mets need 13 happy outcomes in 29 games. (15 for the Mets, 14 for the Phillies.) If the Mets can drop the magic number by two today, I'll consider this weekend a modest success.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 14 2008 08:02 AM

NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 83 64 .547 91.4 70.6 83.34002 5.14094 88.48096 -1.75919 9.08733 Phillies 81 67 .522 88.7 73.3 16.52742 14.76624 31.29366 8.14161 5.83455 Marlins 76 72 .483 83.1 78.9 .13257 .05410 .18667 .04088 -0.09634 Braves 66 83 .491 72.1 89.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 56 92 .404 61.9 100.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Yesterday's action cost the Mets less than 2 points, but the Phillies gained just over 8, mostly at the expense of the Brewers, who dropped 7.55 to 67.63096. (64.4% of that is for the Wild Card.) Arizona is down to 2.15817 for the playoffs, zero for the wild card. (It doesn't look like they've been eliminated from the wild card, though. They can still win 87 games, and only the Cubs have won more than that so far.) In the AL Central, currently in a virtual tie (Chicago ahead by .001) has a bit of a disparity in the projected finishes: AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 82 66 .516 88.8 73.2 41.79495 .09638 41.89133 13.17396 23.3235 White Sox 81 65 .547 88.9 72.1 58.20480 .07700 58.28180 -13.12543 -24.16920

Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2008 08:24 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 83 65 .548 90.8 71.2 65.82582 14.59548 80.42130 -8.05965 .18930 Phillies 83 67 .528 89.7 72.3 34.02072 25.30899 59.32970 28.03604 31.54203 Brewers 83 67 .532 89.4 72.6 .76578 47.94792 48.71371 -18.91725 -38.81012 Astros 80 68 .484 87.3 74.7 .01777 10.70041 10.71818 -0.90918 9.11287 The events of this past weekend have forced me to include the Wild Card portion of the race in the Mets playoff odds. Despite Steve Rogers' comment about the Card being "off the table" I'll happily take any ticket to the post-season. Sure I'd love to see the Mets win the division AND deprive the Phillies of a playoff berth, but things don't always work out exactly the way we'd like them to. The Cubs are at 99.21603 to win the NL Central, and only .69691 for the Wild Card. Other NL teams with negligible Wild Card hopes are St. Louis (.61021) and Florida (.14007). The teams that the Mets now have to reckon with are, in addition to the Phillies, the Brewers and the Astros. Yesterdays' action was bad for the Mets, worse for the Brewers, and very very good for the Phillies. Mets playoff odds drop by just over 8%, the Brewers drop by almost 19, and the Phillies gain just over 28. For the division title, the Mets' NHOP rises to 50%. (They need 13 happy outcomes in 26 games. Getting one happy outcome in the seven games that have been played since Thursday really hurts.) The Brewers have an identical record to the Phillies, so the Mets also have a magic number of 13 to finish with a better record than Milwaukee, and a 50% NHOP. The magic number over Houston is 12, and the NHOP is 42.85% (12 out of 28). A slight bit of good news: If the Mets and Phillies end with an identical record, and both end up better than the Astros and Brewers, the Mets will end up as the division champion and the Phillies will be the Wild Card, thanks to the Mets winning the season series this year against Philadelphia. The Brewers look like they're doing a bigger fade than the Mets are. (After all, the Mets have only lost two of three.) So even though the Mets, at the moment, anyway, don't look too likely to outplay the hot Phillies the rest of the way, chances for October are still looking pretty good.

Gwreck Sep 15 2008 09:34 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: So even though the Mets, at the moment, anyway, don't look too likely to outplay the hot Phillies the rest of the way Eh. "Hot" is as good as tomorrow's opponent. The Mets play the Nationals, from whom they've taken the last 5 games from, and are 10-4 against this year. I see them easily picking up anywhere from .5 to 1.5 games in the first half of this week alone.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 16 2008 06:51 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 83 66 .545 90.1 71.9 56.51660 16.83896 73.35555 -7.06575 -4.91233 Phillies 83 67 .528 89.7 72.3 43.26255 21.14525 64.40781 5.07811 29.74335 Brewers 83 67 .531 89.4 72.6 .44187 53.08477 53.52663 4.81292 -26.90453 Astros 80 69 .481 86.9 75.1 .00127 7.61744 7.61871 -3.09947 4.82995 Did yesterday's loss hurt? YES! Their overall playoff chances drop by another 7%; Wild Card goes up by 2 while the Division Championship drops by 9. Houston's loss only cost them 3 points, but they only had 10.7 at the start of yesterday's action. Mets NHOP is now at 52% (13 happy outcomes out of 25 games). That's not a good number, needless to say. (It applies to both the Phils and the Brewers.) The magic number over the Phillies and Brewers remains at 13. If they don't reduce it today, then tomorrow morning they'll no longer even have a magic number. The Mets magic number over the Astros is 11 and the NHOP for eliminating Houston's threat to the Mets, such as it is, is 42.3% (11 out of 26). Good stuff needs to start happening, and soon.

metirish Sep 16 2008 06:59 AM

No easy task but winning the next three games here would be sweet and taking two of three at Atlanta would set us up nicely.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 17 2008 07:39 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 84 67 .531 90.2 71.8 61.48193 18.73592 80.21785 15.81004 53.49517 Mets 83 67 .542 89.5 72.5 38.19783 26.05489 64.25272 -9.10283 -22.50156 Brewers 83 68 .532 89.0 73.0 .10815 49.02204 49.13020 -4.39643 -24.07460 Astros 80 70 .478 86.4 75.6 .00010 5.31989 5.31999 -2.29872 -0.04247 As the unhappy outcomes keep on coming, the Mets NHOP for the division title continues to rise. It's now at 56.5%. (13 out of 23) The Mets no longer have a magic number for the division title; instead they have a tragic number of 12. Not all is bleak, however. At least, not yet. The Mets are the current wild card leader, with a magic number of 12 and their NHOP relative to Milwaukee is 52.2% (12 out of 23). The Astros continue to be less of a threat. The Mets magic number to eliminate Houston is 10. NHOP for the Astros is 41.7%, (10 out of 24). Prediction: We'll soon hear about the results of a Mets/Brewers coin toss. Yesterday's action, not surprisingly, helped the Phillies a lot, giving them 15.8 more playoff points. And look at that 7-day gain: 53.49 per cent! Mets drop 9.1 points and the Brewers drop 4.4. The Phillies are now the most likely division champ, and the Brewers are the most likely Wild Card, but overall, the Mets still have better playoff chances than the Brewers do. As the number of remaining games continues to shrink, a single day's action can cause more dramatic swings in the odds. If everything goes right today (it can happen, you know) and the Mets, Braves, and Cubs all win, things would look quite a bit brighter tomorrow.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 18 2008 07:40 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 85 67 .534 90.8 71.2 63.65657 17.94059 81.59715 1.37930 65.07085 Mets 84 67 .543 89.9 72.1 36.07547 26.57932 62.65479 -1.59793 -29.39416 Brewers 84 68 .535 89.6 72.4 .18905 53.62267 53.81172 4.68152 -26.93066 Astros 80 71 .472 85.8 76.2 .00000 1.32076 1.32076 -3.99923 -4.64298 This doesn't seem fair: On a day when the Mets, Phillies, and Brewers all win, only the Mets see their playoff odds drop. This seems to be because the Phillies shaved more points off the Mets first place odds than the Mets gained from the Brewers. But Milwaukee increased their Wild Card odds because the Card is becoming less likely to end up in Philadelphia. Astros continue to decline. Another day or two like this and I'll remove them from these updates. Magic Tragic Number update: Mets magic number for the Wild Card is 11. Tragic number for the NL East title is also 11. NHOP: Mets/Phillies: 57.1% (12 necessary happy outcomes in 21 games). Mets/Brewers: 52.4% (11 of 21) If the season were to end with the standings as they are, the Mets would play the Dodgers in the NLDS while the Phillies would take on the Cubs. Home field advantages would go to Los Angeles and Chicago. Teams with playoff odds between 0 and 1 are Toronto (.02901), Yankees (.02069), Florida (.59708), St. Louis (.03878) and Colorado, at .00018 appears poised to be the next team eliminated.

Frayed Knot Sep 18 2008 07:47 AM

Remember also that these odds take the future schedule into consideration, so that every game we erase off the sked now makes those four against the Cubs next week a larger portion of the overall remainder. I'm sure that has at least a bit to do with it - although I doubt their model takes into consideration what effect an early Chicago clinching would have on the game-to-game odds in that series.

TransMonk Sep 18 2008 07:49 AM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: < If the season were to end with the standings as they are, the Mets would play the Dodgers in the NLDS while the Phillies would take on the Cubs. Home field advantages would go to Los Angeles and Chicago. I'm pretty sure if the season ended today we would play the NLDS vs. the Cubs since we would be the wild card and the Cubs have the best record.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 18 2008 07:50 AM

I think he's adjusting for the loss-column tie.

TransMonk Sep 18 2008 08:00 AM

Ah...I see, now. Makes sense.

HahnSolo Sep 18 2008 08:23 AM

="Benjamin Grimm"]If the season were to end with the standings as they are, the Mets would play the Dodgers in the NLDS while the Phillies would take on the Cubs. Home field advantages would go to Los Angeles and Chicago. Wouldn't the Mets (or whoever the East champ is) have home field by virtue of better record than LA?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 18 2008 08:28 AM

No, Monk is right, I screwed up. The Mets would play the Cubs and the Phillies would play the Dodgers. Home-field would go to Chicago and Philadelphia.

Gwreck Sep 18 2008 08:30 AM

Even so, there's no scenario that would give LA homefield advantage.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2008 06:50 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 86 67 .535 91.2 70.8 65.70010 23.14596 88.84606 7.24891 66.21829 Mets 85 67 .544 90.3 71.7 34.09700 38.54137 72.63837 9.98358 -17.55688 Brewers 84 69 .535 89.2 72.8 .02105 37.27627 37.29732 -16.51440 -36.93337 Marlins 80 72 .496 84.9 77.1 .20290 .51727 .72017 .12309 .60574 Astros 80 72 .468 85.4 76.6 .00000 .44620 .44620 -0.87456 -8.89261 Yesterday was one of the better days that the Mets have had in a while with a win over the Nationals and a heart-breaking loss that the Brewers suffered to the Cubs. The day was only marred by yet another win by the Phillies, their seventh in a row. The Mets wild card lead expands to 1.5 games, and their deficit to the Phillies remains at a half game. Mets Tragic Number for the NL East: 10 Mets Magic Number for the Wild Card: 9 Mets NHOP with the Phillies: 57.9% (11 out of 19) Mets NHOP with the Brewers: 47.4% (9 out of 19) The Astros continue to fade away. If they don't gain ground in today's action, I expect that this will be the last time they'll be listed in these updates. Meanwhile, the Marlins pop back in to the picture. Their record is the same as Houston's, but BP has their odds a bit higher. Let's hope this inspires them to smack the Phillies around a bit this weekend. Mets magic number over both Houston and Florida, who have identical records: 6 Mets NHOP with Florida and Houston: 30% each. (6 happy outcomes in 20 games.) This weekend the three teams we care most about are all on the road: Mets in Atlanta, Phillies in Miami, and the Brewers will be in Cincinnati. And the team that we're losing interest in, the Astros, is also on the road, in Pittsburgh. In other news from around the major leagues, the Dodgers now have playoff odds of 97.80655%, and the Diamondbacks have dropped all the way down to 2.19345%. Both numbers are NL West odds; they're both at 0 for the Wild Card. In the AL East, as we've known for a while, the Rays and Red Sox are both extremely likely to make the playoffs, but the identity of the division champ is still to be determined. The Rays are currently at 72.75650% and the Red Sox at 27.24350%. And there's only one remaining division race that's still competitive that doesn't have the Wild Card berth as a safety cushion. That's in the AL Central, where the White Sox have a 77.89580% for the division and the Twins are at 22.10420%.

HahnSolo Sep 19 2008 07:03 AM

I guess I just don't understand how they calculate their odds. The Mets and Phils have the same number of losses with the Phils having played one more game. Why are the odds almost 2-1 in favor of Philly winning the division? Throw in the fact that in a tie, the Mets would win (assuming Mil. is out of it).

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2008 07:08 AM

I think part of it is that the Phillies have a softer schedule. (Remember, 4 of the Mets remaining 10 games are against the Cubs.) Also, Baseball Prospectus doesn't do tie-breakers. If the Mets end up tied with the Phillies, they give half the points to the Mets and half to the Phillies, rather than all points to the Mets. Here's how they explain it: ]Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Benjamin Grimm Sep 20 2008 06:55 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 86 67 .547 90.9 71.1 51.78453 35.69591 87.48045 14.84209 -2.75969 Phillies 86 68 .533 90.7 71.3 47.96093 39.43007 87.39101 -1.45506 64.23895 Marlins 81 72 .498 85.4 76.6 .25453 .86703 1.12156 .40139 .97577 Brewers 84 70 .530 88.6 73.4 .00535 23.11895 23.12430 -14.17302 -52.06451 Astros 81 72 .468 85.8 76.2 .00000 .77322 .77322 .32702 -8.88744 As a courtesy to the Astros, who won yesterday, they'll remain part of the daily update. The Mets, as we know, had a great day yesterday, gaining 14.84209 playoff points, almost entirely at the expense of the Brewers. It's looking extremely likely that both the Mets and Phillies will make the playoffs and that the Marlins surge will probably be too little too late. (But it would be nice if they kept it going for at least two more games.) Mets Magic Numbers: Over the Phillies: 9; Brewers: 7; Marlins and Astros: 5. Phillies magic number over the Brewers: 7. Over the Marlins and Astros: 5. NHOP Update: Mets over Phillies: 52.9% (9 out of 17) Mets over Brewers: 41.2% (7 out of 17) Mets over Astros and Marlins: 27.8% (5 out of 18). Of course, the NHOP for the Marlins is a bit more complicated, as they have two remaining games against the Phillies. The happier outcome, by far, in each of those two games would be a Marlins victory. Personally, I'm not yet at a point where I want to root for the Brewers to win, but to have them overtake the Phillies, but not the Mets, would be sweet. Meanwhile, the Cubs have clinched a tie for the NL Central, and have a magic number of 1. With the Mets back in first place, the projected NLDS matchups are Cubs-Phillies and Mets-Dodgers. Cubs and Mets would have home-field advantage. The Yankees are still barely alive, with .00003% for the AL East and .01529 for the Wild Card. Diamondback playoff hopes are down to 1.97640. Other teams still alive, but with their hopes down below 1 point are St. Louis and Toronto.

Frayed Knot Sep 20 2008 07:12 AM

Dodgers with a playoff spot almost sewn up despite currently having the [u:02bfa1bece]8th best record[/u:02bfa1bece] in the NL. That kind of incompetance hasn't been seen since the 2000 Yanquis.

metirish Sep 20 2008 07:22 AM

Bookies in Ireland have the Mets at 10/1 to win the WS.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 21 2008 05:56 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 87 68 .532 91.2 70.8 67.88938 28.50846 96.39784 9.00684 65.10419 Mets 86 68 .545 90.3 71.7 32.07973 54.92721 87.00695 -0.47350 -1.47401 Brewers 84 71 .531 88.1 73.9 .00000 15.62065 15.62065 -7.50365 -52.01031 Marlins 81 73 .499 84.9 77.1 .03088 .59340 .62429 -0.49727 .43762 Astros 81 73 .467 85.3 76.7 .00000 .30442 .30442 -0.46880 -11.32294 Despite the Mets losing yesterday and the Phillies winning, the Mets wake up this morning with their playoff odds barely dented from the previous day, with a drop of less than half a percentage point. Milwaukee took the hardest hit, losing 7.5 points. The Phillies get the biggest boost, gaining just over 9 points. Florida's winning streak ended with the defeat to the Phillies and their odds are at a slim .62429%. Astros, with the identical record, are at .30442. The Phillies once again possess the magic number in the NL East: 8 The Mets have the Wild Card magic number: 6 The Phillies have a magic number of 5 for finishing ahead of the Brewers and likely guaranteeing a playoff berth. If the Mets play .500 the rest of the way (4-4) the Brewers have to go 6-1 to end up with a tie, 7-0 to beat the Mets outright. The Mets, unfortunately, will today play their last game of the year against a losing team. After this, it's Cubs and Marlins the rest of the way. The good news is that those last seven games will all be at Shea. NHOP update: For the Mets to finish ahead of Philadelphia: 60% (9 happy outcomes in 15 games.) For the Mets to finish ahead of Milwaukee: 40% (6 out of 15.) Also, Dodgers now at 98.33335% for the playoffs. White Sox at 87.04390%, Twins at 12.95610%.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 22 2008 08:32 AM

..

Benjamin Grimm Sep 22 2008 08:32 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 88 68 .532 91.7 70.3 85.45823 12.86629 98.32452 1.92667 38.99482 Mets 86 69 .543 89.8 72.2 14.54098 60.27681 74.81779 -12.18916 -5.60352 Brewers 85 71 .532 88.5 73.5 .00000 26.04179 26.04179 10.42114 -22.67192 These updates are a lot less fun on mornings after days completely lacking in happy outcomes. Yesterday, as we know, the Mets lost and both the Phillies and Brewers won, completely negating the triply-happy Saturday action. Mets drop 12 playoff points. About 10 of them go to the Brewers and just under 2 to the Phillies. Mets magic number over the Brewers remains at 6. The tragic number for the division title is also 6. Phillies magic number over the Brewers is a mere 4. They're highly likely to be playing in October. Mets NHOP over Philadelphia is 69.2% (9 out of 13) Mets NHOP over the Brewers goes from a relatively nice 40% to a less nice 46.2% (6 out of 13). The bad news is that the Mets now have four games against the first-place Cubs, while the Brewers have three against the last-place Pirates. It won't be an easy task for the Mets to maintain that wild card lead through Thursday's games and into the final weekend. Especially since Niese and Martinez are starting two of the games against the Cubs. Let's cross our fingers and see what happens...

bmfc1 Sep 22 2008 08:39 AM

BG: I appreciate your posting of the numbers and analysis. I know where the numbers may be found, but you do a nice job of dissecting the numbers and explaining them.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 22 2008 08:49 AM

Thank you!

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 22 2008 08:50 AM

Yeah, even when reading the analysis causes me to vomit.

Gwreck Sep 22 2008 08:53 AM

I think our NHOP against Philadelphia can be reduced to 8 of 13, so long as the Brewers don't catch us, because a tie for the division lead (if the Brewers don't catch us) means that we get the division.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 22 2008 08:55 AM

Good point.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 23 2008 11:04 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 68 .532 92.2 69.8 95.52425 4.10096 99.62521 1.30070 35.21741 Mets 86 70 .542 89.3 72.7 4.47575 60.85076 65.32652 -9.49126 -8.02903 Brewers 85 71 .532 88.5 73.5 .00000 34.03837 34.03837 7.99658 -19.48826 Mets hopes continue to dim and these updates seem more and more masochistic. Another 9½ points drop off the playoff odds, with the Brewers taking about 8 of them (a very productive day for an idle team) and the Phillies getting the rest. The division title is looking like quite a longshot, and the Phillies appear to be playoff bound. (Making their eventual collapse all the sweeter? How great would that be?) The Mets have a tragic number of 4 for the NL East crown and their Wild Card magic number holds steady at 6. NHOP for the division is 81.8% (9 out of 11) to win the division outright, or 72.7% (8 of 11) to end in a tie with the Phillies which could (depending on Milwaukee's final record) give the Mets the division title. The Wild Card NHOP is rising steadily. It's now at 54.5%. (6 of 11) For the Brewers, though, it's 72.7% (8 of 11). It's that in-between value, the 7 of 11, that would lead to a one-game playoff at Shea on Monday. While we can (and should) still hope for the Phillies to lose whenever possible, we've reached the point where a Brewers loss is more helpful to the Mets than a Phillies loss is. If I had one magic "make a team lose" card, I'd give it to the Brewers one night this week.

Gwreck Sep 23 2008 12:03 PM

="Benjamin Grimm"]While we can (and should) still hope for the Phillies to lose whenever possible, we've reached the point where a Brewers loss is more helpful to the Mets than a Phillies loss is. If I had one magic "make a team lose" card, I'd give it to the Brewers one night this week. I guess that's true if you consider the Wild Card a success. For me, this season would be successful with an NL East crown or the Wild Card and a first-round playoff victory.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2008 08:39 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 69 .532 91.6 70.4 87.42335 11.08457 98.50792 -1.11729 18.29007 Mets 87 70 .544 89.8 72.2 12.57665 59.56893 72.14558 6.81905 7.89285 Brewers 86 71 .532 88.8 73.2 .00000 29.29593 29.29593 -4.74244 -19.83427 A good day for the Mets yesterday, but it could have been a great day had the Pirates held on and defeated the Brewers. Oh well. Any day that reduces the magic number and gets the Mets closer to the end of the season is very helpful. Yesterday's action gained the Mets 6.8 playoff points. Just over one point came from the Phillies, and 4.7 from the Brewers. The rest? It seems to have come in tiny portions from Florida, Houston, and St. Louis. The Marlins and Cards are now officially eliminated and the Astros are hanging on by a thread. The Mets magic number to eliminate them from the Wild Card is 2. Phillies magic number over the Mets for the NL East is still 4. And it's 3 over the Brewers. Their overall playoff odds are a very healthy 98.50792%. But things can change quickly in the final few games, so you never know. By beating the Cubs yesterday, the Mets reduce their Wild Card magic number to 5. Their NHOP to finish with a better record than the Phillies is 77.8% (7 out of 9). To tie the Phillies, which could be enough to get them a division title, it's 66.7% (6 of 9). The NHOP for the Mets relating to the Brewers is 50% (5 out of 10 necessary happy outcomes.) The Brewers need an NHOP of 60% to force a tie and 70% to win the Wild Card outright. That 70% number makes it seem like the odds are good that the Mets will play beyond Sunday, even if it's just the one-game tie-breaker. Let's look at that magic number of 5, with 5 games remaining for each team. If the Mets go 3-2, the Brewers need to sweep their last five games to finish with a better record, and have to go 4-1 to force a tie. Starts by Perez, Pelfrey, and Santana give the Mets 3 games that they should have a good chance of winning. (The other two games, with starts by Pedro and TBD have somewhat gloomier prognoses.) If the Mets go 2-3, the Brewers still need 3-2 to force a tie, and 4-1 to surpass the Mets. Thursday, Pedro's start, is a key game. If they can find a way to win that one, if they can turn a should-lose into a win, then that will be a huge step towards the post-season. Remaining schedule: The Mets, Phillies, and Brewers all have nothing but home games the rest of the way. The Phillies finish the schedule against bad teams, who can, as we've seen, be dangerous. They have one game against the Braves and three against the tenacious Nationals. The Mets only play good teams, the NL Central champion Cubs for two games, and the recently eliminated Marlins for three. The Brewers, unfortunately, still have two games against the last-place Pirates, but then they have to face the Cubs for three. Right now I'd say that the Brewers have a slightly softer schedule, but if the Mets can maintain (or expand) their lead over the next two days, the schedule will then swing to the Mets' favor.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Sep 24 2008 08:46 AM

One more nutty thing: Rain forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Gwreck Sep 24 2008 08:51 AM

A Thursday Mets-Cubs rainout gets played Monday, if necessary. A Friday Mets-Marlins rainout gets played as a separate admission double-header on Saturday, 1:10 and 7:10/8:10. A Saturday Mets-Marlins rainout gets played Monday, if necessary. A Thursday Phillies-Braves rainout gets played Monday, if necessary. A Friday Phillies-Nationals rainout will get made up on Sunday, as they are the national TV game on Saturday afternoon at 3:55. A Saturday Phillies-Nationals rainout will result in a doubleheader on Sunday. No rainouts in Milwaukee. Any tiebreaker games would be played on Tuesday if rainout makeups are played Monday.

A Boy Named Seo Sep 24 2008 09:34 AM

Love reading this stuff everyday, Grimm. Thanks.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 25 2008 08:59 AM

Some days these daily updates are more of a chore than others. Today is one of those days. But here we go... W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 70 .530 91.0 71.0 85.04305 12.42827 97.47132 -1.03660 15.87417 Mets 87 71 .543 89.3 72.7 14.95695 39.59053 54.54748 -17.59809 -8.10731 Brewers 87 71 .531 89.2 72.8 .00000 47.88558 47.88559 18.58966 -5.92613 David Wright's inability to hit a fly ball last night in the ninth inning has pretty much cost the Mets 17.5 playoff points. Yes, it's nice that the Phillies lost, but it's the Brewers win that killed us yesterday. The Mets would have been much better off, playoff-wise, had the Brewers lost and the Phillies won, even with their own defeat to the Cubs. Now, they have some doing to do. It's essentially a four-game season, and the Mets have to win more of their four than the Brewers win of their own four games. The schedule sort of favors the Mets, as Milwaukee has to face the Cubs three times while the Mets will be closing against the Marlins, a good team that's not nearly as good as the Cubs. And hopefully the Cubs will be seriously getting their playoff faces on for those last three games. The bad news is that the Mets still have one game against the Cubs while the Brewers are playing the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. If the Mets can avoid losing ground to the Brewers today (in other words, if both teams end up with the same result) the advantage will swing towards the Mets again. And if the Mets expand their lead tonight, that will be significantly better. If the two teams have opposite results today, the team that wins will have a magic number of 3 with three games remaining, which is a decent, but not commanding, position to be in. The Mets starters the rest of the way are Pedro Martinez tonight in perhaps his last game as a Met, followed by Mike Pelfrey, TBD, and Johan Santana against the Marlins. (That's two shaky starters in four games.) The Brewers will have Yovani Gallardo take on the Pirates, and against the Cubs they'll have Suppan, Bush, and a hopefully exhausted Sabathia. The Mets loss last night allowed the Phillies to reduce their own magic number to 3. (That's for both the Mets and the Brewers.) The Mets and Brewers, with their identical records, have matching NHOPs. They each need 5 happy outcomes in 8 games, for an NHOP of 62.5%. Just a few days ago the Mets had an NHOP of 40, so we see how swiftly things can change. The Mets NHOP regarding the Phillies is 85.7% (6 out of 7) to finish with a better record. It's 71.4%, (5 of 7) to end up tied with the Phils. These numbers, clearly, have not been moving in a good direction. Things need to turn around very very soon!

Frayed Knot Sep 25 2008 09:07 AM

]David Wright's inability to hit a fly ball last night in the ninth inning has pretty much cost the Mets 17.5 playoff points It cost us a lot more than that considering that a win would have gained us a number of pct points over where we started the day. Add those to the 17 we lost and it's probably closer to double that.

HahnSolo Sep 25 2008 09:08 AM

Note to self: do not open "Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus" Thread in September 2009.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 25 2008 09:15 AM

I'm hoping that the Mets clinch the NL East by August 31, 2009!

Centerfield Sep 25 2008 12:44 PM

="Frayed Knot"] ]David Wright's inability to hit a fly ball last night in the ninth inning has pretty much cost the Mets 17.5 playoff points It cost us a lot more than that considering that a win would have gained us a number of pct points over where we started the day. Add those to the 17 we lost and it's probably closer to double that. To be fair, it's not all on David Wright. Ryan Church blew last night too. Meaning that's only 8.5% points a piece.

AG/DC Sep 26 2008 06:26 AM

Brewers get a walkoff win but still fall by 5%.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 26 2008 08:03 AM

12.8% chance that NY/PHI tie for the division and wild card without a third team involved. 24.0% chance that Phillies win division, Mets/Brewers tie for WC. 2.6% chance that Mets win, Phillies and Brewers tie for WC. W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 70 .531 91.0 71.0 76.80415 18.44227 95.24642 -2.22490 6.40036 Mets 88 71 .543 89.7 72.3 23.19585 38.60003 61.79588 7.24840 -10.84249 Brewers 88 71 .531 89.5 72.5 .00000 42.93533 42.93533 -4.95026 5.63801 As Edgy said, the Brewers lost 5 points despite winning yesterday. The Mets, despite being tied with the Brewers, have a 19% better chance of making the playoffs, mostly because the Mets have two ways in (as do the Phillies) but for the Brewers it's the Wild Card or nothing. Also influencing the disparity, I suspect, is the slightly easier schedule that the Mets have (three against Florida) than the Brewers (three against the Cubs). Phillies magic number is 3, for both the NL East and the Wild Card. Mets and Brewers both have Wild Card Magic Numbers of 4 with three to play. Phillies have an identical NHOP over both the Mets and Brewers: 66.7% (4 of 6) Mets NHOP over the Brewers (and Brewers over Mets) 50% (3 of 6)

Benjamin Grimm Sep 27 2008 06:34 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 90 70 .533 91.3 70.7 97.66125 1.57583 99.23708 3.99066 11.84608 Mets 88 72 .542 89.2 72.8 2.33875 21.99038 24.32913 -37.46675 -63.15132 Brewers 89 71 .532 90.0 72.0 .00000 76.43378 76.43378 33.49845 53.30948 Not much to say here. Everything went wrong yesterday and the Mets drop a huge 37.5 playoff points. 4 of them go to the Phillies and the rest go to the Brewers. If the Mets win today and the Brewers lose, we should see a dramatic shift back the other way. If that doesn't happen, the Mets are either eliminated or in a must-win-hope-the-Brewers lose situation tomorrow.

metirish Sep 27 2008 07:01 AM

It's bleak to say the least.The fundamentals of this team are not sound.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2008 06:19 AM

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 89 72 .543 89.6 72.4 .00000 54.68005 54.68005 30.35092 -32.32690 Brewers 89 72 .530 89.5 72.5 .00000 45.31995 45.31995 -31.11383 29.69930 One final update here. Clearly, as we knew, yesterday was a very good day for the Mets. No need to look at NHOP's or magic numbers. We know what needs to happen.