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Omar's Magic Beans

soupcan
Jul 15 2008 07:22 AM

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AMAZIN' PLANS

By JOEL SHERMAN

July 15, 2008 --

THE METS are more seriously considering promoting from within (Fernando Martinez for the outfield, Jon Niese for the rotation, Bobby Parnell or Eddie Kunz if a bullpen arm is needed) then making a trade between now and the July 31 deadline, Omar Minaya told The Post yesterday.

Minaya faces three major obstacles to reaching outside the organization for improvements:

1) The organization is cautiously optimistic Ryan Church will soon return, making a righty-hitting left fielder to replace out-for-the-season Moises Alou the main priority. Minaya has been unable to identify a player significantly better than a Fernando Tatis/Endy Chavez platoon to make it worthwhile to sacrifice prospect chips.

2) The Mets are finding the asking prices for relievers they have interest in, such as Colorado's Brian Fuentes, to be too steep.

3) To reach the level of contender, the Mets have expended a lot of prospect artillery the past three years, and Minaya recognizes he must protect the farm system and let it rebuild.

"We can't keep doing four-for-one deals," Minaya said.

So what does this all mean? Because the Mets are more fixated on a righty-hitting outfielder, they have substantially cooled on Seattle's Raul Ibanez, although the organization's top executives like him a great deal. Because they are unwilling to give up a big-time package, Colorado's Matt Holliday can be scratched off the list, and, unless the prices fall substantially, so can Pittsburgh's Xavier Nady.

An NL executive said he believes Minaya's historic aggression will lead him to make some kind of trade before the deadline to augment the surging Mets. And Minaya confirmed that he is very active looking for opportunities. It is possible he is just playing the propaganda game when he says he is comfortable going with internal options, hoping that lowers prices. But he insists he is sincere.

There already are two players on the 25-man roster Minaya thinks far more of than most of the rest of baseball. He said he believes Nick Evans is going to grow into a .280-plus hitter who produces 20 homers and 80 RBIs annually. Minaya also said, "I like Carlos Muniz a lot. I think he is going to grow in a nice seventh- or eighth-inning guy. I like Muniz as much as I liked Chad Cordero (when Minaya was Expos GM) in the first round."

Minaya also said the Mets' top two high-level players, Martinez and Niese, could be in play in August. He said that at the time of the trade for Johan Santana, he was thrilled he was able to keep Martinez, Niese and Mike Pelfrey out of the deal because he believed they would be building-block players for the team moving forward.

Left-handed Niese (5-7, 3.09 ERA) drew scouts from about 10 teams to his start Saturday and Martinez drew raves from scouts at the Futures Game on Sunday. The general scouting consensus, however, remains that both players need more minor league seasoning. However, the Mets are an aggressive organization when it comes to promotion, and that is no different here.

Of Niese, Minaya said, "He might be pitching for us this year in August." Of Martinez, Minaya said, "He might be better than anybody we could get in a trade. This kid is legit." Martinez, however, is a lefty hitter, is 19 years old, and has had another injury-interrupted season in which he has batted .294 at Double-A.



Thats big talk about Evans and Muniz. If even a pom-pom waving Met fan like me can see that Omar is blowing smoke up my ass, I'm guessing a major league GM can see it too. "Hey, you don't want Neise and Fartinez, you want Evans and Muniz, youknowwhatI'm sayin'?"

Good luck with that one Omar.

AG/DC
Jul 15 2008 07:31 AM

Minaya has been historically aggressive?

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Jul 15 2008 07:35 AM

I dunno. Evans has been OPSing over 900 at AA over 300 at-bats... that's pretty good and he is still young; and nothing not like about Muniz as a reliver as Seo will tell you. I think he's had only 2 bad outings in his career, one of which came a few weeks back where he knew he was doomed to a postgame demotion and the Mets were playing like shit anyway.

I wouldn't mind swapping out Feliciano for Fuentes as my lefty sidearmer, but I guess that's not a high priority.

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 15 2008 07:47 AM

="AG/DC"]Minaya has been historically aggressive?


At times, it has seemed that, when he wants to make a deal, he'll push to make it happen. There were some early examples that I remember we commented on, but I can't remember which deals they were. He acted very quickly in making the Nady/Hernandez-Perez deal right after Sanchez got hurt.

But he's also been able to hang back. He waited for the Santana deal to come to him. He backed away from the three free-agent catchers (Hernandez, Molina, and Torrealba).

We've seen that he can be aggressive, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that it's his standard behavior.

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 15 2008 07:53 AM

And I wish I could shake this sudden feeling I have that Fernando Martinez is going to turn out to be nothing more than a Matt Lawton.

metirish
Jul 15 2008 07:54 AM

The Mets are an aggressive organization when it comes to promotion? , I would say they are cautious .

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 15 2008 07:59 AM

I think some players tend to move quickly through the minor leagues, but not a lot of young players get promoted to the big leagues.

I know Martinez is one of the younger players in the Eastern League, but I'm not sure if he's an exception or an example of an aggressive trend.

AG/DC
Jul 15 2008 08:01 AM

I think it's very clear that Milledge, Gomez, and Fernandez, among others have been pushed aggressively. They have each been the youngest or among the youngest players at their levels, and/or the youngest in the AFL.

On the Nady/Hernandez-Perez deal, he (1) had been looking at a similar deal with the Pirates previously anyhow, and had walked away, and (2) had to act quickly because the injury happened just before the curtain on the trade deadline.

attgig
Jul 15 2008 08:10 AM

10 guys scouting out Niese. sounds interesting.

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Jul 15 2008 08:23 AM

="Benjamin Grimm"]And I wish I could shake this sudden feeling I have that Fernando Martinez is going to turn out to be nothing more than a Matt Lawton.


Matt Lawton played for ten years and had a career 105 OPS+ and a .277 EQA, with a few great seasons mixed in. That's not too bad. Better than Alex Ochoa or Alex Escobar. (Fun Fact: Alex Escobar [url=http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30778]is still playing[/url]!)

Not that I'd sign up for a Matt Lawton career for Martinez right now, but there are worse scenarios.

The problem I have with Omar's "promote from within" strategy is that I don't think any of the organization's top prospects are ready to produce in the majors this year. I suspect Niese, Martinez, Carp, Evans, Murphy and the rest of 'em at AA might all need a full year in NO before they're ready for the bigs. If there's nothing available on the trade market for a reasonable price, and ownership wants nothing to do with Bonds, then there's not much Omar can do except try to sell us on a bunch of college-age kids. That's too bad, cuz the only way I can see this team making the playoffs is if they add a bat to the outfield. Ryan Church might bring that bat, but I think it's a bit much to expect him to carry this team down the stretch after the season he's had.

Also, still no mention of Val Pascucci?

AG/DC
Jul 15 2008 08:27 AM

Write Sherman and tell him to ask about Pascucci.

attgig
Jul 15 2008 09:23 AM

and how about non-prospect costing options such as kenny lofton (i know... lefty) or maybe even reggie sanders (yeah, he's old and injured, but could have a 1/2 a season in him).

G-Fafif
Jul 15 2008 09:41 AM

]An NL executive said he believes Minaya's historic aggression will lead him to make some kind of trade before the deadline to augment the surging Mets.


I believe the word Sherman seeks is aggressiveness, not aggression. Aggressiveness suggests assertive and bold action. Aggression implies Minaya's looking to invade Poland.

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 15 2008 09:47 AM

Oh, I hope he doesn't do that.

holychicken
Jul 15 2008 09:55 AM
Re: Omar's Magic Beans

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Minaya's Magic Beans Cause Hot Air Around Fartinez

By JOEL SHERMAN


Sorry, but the seeds of childish potty humor have been planted. It is not my fault that I have succumb to their seductive calls.

Fman99
Jul 15 2008 10:12 AM

="Vince Coleman Firecracker"]
="Benjamin Grimm"]And I wish I could shake this sudden feeling I have that Fernando Martinez is going to turn out to be nothing more than a Matt Lawton.


Matt Lawton played for ten years and had a career 105 OPS+ and a .277 EQA, with a few great seasons mixed in. That's not too bad. Better than Alex Ochoa or Alex Escobar. (Fun Fact: Alex Escobar [url=http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30778]is still playing[/url]!)

Not that I'd sign up for a Matt Lawton career for Martinez right now, but there are worse scenarios.

The problem I have with Omar's "promote from within" strategy is that I don't think any of the organization's top prospects are ready to produce in the majors this year. I suspect Niese, Martinez, Carp, Evans, Murphy and the rest of 'em at AA might all need a full year in NO before they're ready for the bigs. If there's nothing available on the trade market for a reasonable price, and ownership wants nothing to do with Bonds, then there's not much Omar can do except try to sell us on a bunch of college-age kids. That's too bad, cuz the only way I can see this team making the playoffs is if they add a bat to the outfield. Ryan Church might bring that bat, but I think it's a bit much to expect him to carry this team down the stretch after the season he's had.

Also, still no mention of Val Pascucci?


That should read "a full year in Syracuse." If there's any justice, that is.

AG/DC
Jul 15 2008 10:17 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 15 2008 10:34 AM

I too have no problem if Martinez becomes Matt Lawton. I've had it with productive careers that are underappreciated because some prospect guide supposedly promised us we had the next Roy Hobbs.

Root for your system to produce productive players, and lots of 'em. If that happens, they'll find a few stars somewheree. Else we end up like the fools hating on Murcer for not being Mantle.

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 15 2008 10:32 AM

I'd also be okay if he was Matt Lawton. But the expectations seem to be for him to be Manny Ramirez.

Two problems with the high expectations:

If it's on the part of the fans, they'll never accept him as Matt Lawton.

If it's on the team's part, they may pass on a chance to make a good trade because they're expecting too much from Fernando.

I'd be more concerned about the first problem than the second.

Mex17
Jul 15 2008 10:55 AM

Fman99 wrote:

That should read "a full year in Syracuse." If there's any justice, that is.


What is the status of that anyway?

smg58
Jul 15 2008 10:55 AM

Tatis has an OPS of .756 and Chavez an OPS of .633. Let's not get too excited about having that from left field, especially if we can't take Church for granted. If their hitting has been helping the Mets win lately, their lack of hitting was helping the Mets lose before that.

I don't see the need for Fuentes, certainly not at the price that teams ask for their closers this time of year. I'm still worried about guys like Feliciano, Wagner, and Smith wearing down like they did last year, but the pen hasn't been so overtaxed lately (thanks largely to Pelfrey and Perez turning things around). If I can get a bargain price on an innings eater then I'm interested, but I don't see Fuentes as enough of an upgrade over Feliciano and Schoeneweis (both of whom currently have lower ERAs) to justify outbidding other teams for his services.

I think Muniz can give a few years like Matt Lindstrom's 2007 for the Marlins. I don't see him being a Heath Bell or Dan Wheeler, but after the 2006 offseason hopefully Minaya has learned that dumping pitchers who have nothing left to prove in AAA, without giving them a fair chance to prove they can stick around in the majors, is not a good recipe for winning.

Do you see Martinez starting in the Mets outfield in 2010? If yes (and I think so), then I think your best bet for an outfielder is somebody like Randy Winn, who's signed through 2009. He'd take a need off the shopping list for this offseason, without blocking Martinez or forcing the Mets to commit to more years than he's worth.

AG/DC
Jul 15 2008 11:06 AM

It would help Minaya to see Orlando Hernandez sooner, so Minaya can make that much informed.