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Give-Back runs

Frayed Knot
Jul 18 2008 07:19 AM

I suggested during the game last night that 'it seems like' (always a dangerous phrase in baseball) that Johan gives up an awful lot of "Give-Back" runs - runs allowed right after the Mets score themselves.

So working off of TransMonk's quickie research I've added some comments/context:

* March 31st vs. Marlins - Mets score 6 in the top of the 4th, Santana gives up 2 in the bottom of the 4th

Those were the only 2 runs he gave up as he went 7 for the win - so both of his runs allowed were give-backs


* April 12th vs. Brewers - Mets score 2 in the bottom of the 1st, Santana gives up 1 in the top of the 2nd

Those two were the only runs the Mets scored while Santana was in the game, He gave up 5 and Mets lost 5-3. 1 of 5 = Givebacks
This was the first game at Shea booing game



* April 18th vs. Philly - Mets score 3 in the top of the 8th, Santana gives up 3 in the bottom of the 8th

Mets scored twice early withOUT give-back runs from Johan. The 3 in the 8th made it 5-4 Mets although it was the pen that allowed some of his runners to score.
3 of 3 = Givebacks



* May 4th vs. Arizona - Mets score 1 in the top of the 4th, Santana gives up 1 in the bottom of the 4th

This give-back turned a 2-0 lead into 2-1. Santana = ND as Dbacks tied it off the pen before the Mets won it in the 9th
1 of 1 = giveback



* May 10th vs. Reds = Mets score 3 in the bottom of the 3rd, Santana gives up 1 in the top of the 4th & Mets score 2 in the bottom of the 5th,

Santana gives up 2 in the top of the 6th * These give-backs turned 4-0 Mets into 4-1, and then 6-1 into 6-3. Mets and Johan win - all 3 runs are givebacks.


* May 17th vs. the Yankees - Mets score 2 in the top of the 7th, Santana gives up 1 in the bottom of the 7th

Turns 6-2 lead into 6-3. Mets & Johan win.
1 of 3 = givebacks



* May 22nd vs. Braves - Mets score 2 in the top of the 2nd, Santana gives up 1 in the bottom of the 2nd

Give-back came after the only 2 runs the Mets scored. Later gives up 3 more for the loss.
1 of 4 = givebacks



* May 27th vs. Marlins - Mets score 3 in the bottom of the 1st, Santana gives up 1 in the top of the 2nd & Mets score 1 in the bottom of the 5th, Santana gives up 1 in the top of the 6th

2 of 3 = give-backs. Mets & Johan win 5-3


* June 6th vs. San Diego - Mets score 1 in the top of the 6th, Santana gives up 2 in the bottom of the 6th

Those are the only runs scored in the game as Mets & Johan lose 2-1
2 of 2 = givebacks



* June 17th vs. Angels - Mets score 1 in the top of the 1st, Santana gives up 3 in the bottom of the 1st

Mets don't score again, Johan gives up 2 more later on.
3 of 5 = givebacks



* July 17th vs. Reds - Mets score 2 in the top of the 4th, Santana gives up 5 in the bottom of the 4th

Last night - 5 of 5 = givebacks



After all that I'm not sure we've proven anything here as the idea that Johan gives up a larger than normal pct of his runs as givebacks still lacks any overall context - although it does seem high.

In all I think it's just somewhat frustrating that he's not been as good as hoped and that, even during his wins, he manages to pitch just poorly enough in spots so the games remain on edge. Run support hasn't been his friend either, but for a guy with a 3.10 ERA there should be at least a few slam-dunk games and too many giveback runs can keep that from ever happening.

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Jul 18 2008 08:03 AM

I started looking this up for you last night, but my sister showed up at my apartment and I had to play host. Which apparently does not allow for picking through a dozen and a half play-by-plays on baseball reference.


I have no idea what context to put this in, though. Is this more than the average pitcher with Johan's stats (not that Johan's stats are anywhere near average)? Even if it is more, is it worse for your team if you "give back" runs or if you give em up first and then settle down? I have no idea.

Johan's been pretty damn good, though. I'll take 130 innings with a 132 ERA+ at the all-star break every single year of his contract. His WHIP is high for him, but still not bad. He's striking out 8 per game and 3 per walk and giving up a HR per game, all just about his career norms. Only thing that looks off is his LD%, which is high, but still around his norm for the last 3 years.