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1990 American League Cy Young Award
AG/DC Jul 22 2008 01:57 PM |
Talk of Bobby Thigpen got me thinking about his 1990 season, in which he was pitching in air he never breathed again. A lot of pitchers did.
AL Manager of the Year that season? Jeff Torborg.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 22 2008 02:02 PM |
1. Clemens
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metirish Jul 22 2008 02:04 PM |
I would go
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Methead Jul 22 2008 02:07 PM |
I remember thinking at the time that Welch deserved it. Upon looking at the numbers now though, it looks like:
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 22 2008 02:08 PM |
I'll vote Clemens/Stewart/Welch.
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AG/DC Jul 22 2008 02:09 PM |
Crane Pool Re-Writing History
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metsguyinmichigan Jul 22 2008 02:12 PM |
Stewart
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AG/DC Jul 22 2008 02:13 PM |
metsguy goes all-Oakland.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 22 2008 02:14 PM |
Big Asshole Wins Big Honor
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 22 2008 02:15 PM |
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That's because we know a "titan" when we see one.
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 22 2008 02:21 PM |
1. Clemens
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Frayed Knot Jul 22 2008 02:27 PM |
Check out these stats at the end of Eck's line? -- 73 SO, 4 BB
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 22 2008 02:35 PM |
Clemens should've won the 1990 Cy Young award unanimously. No one was close. He pitched in Fenway that year.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 22 2008 02:42 PM |
Bob Welch, 1990's AL Cy Young award winner, finished 9th in [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1990.shtml#ALmvp]that season's MVP vote,[/url] behind his pitching teammates Dave Stewart (8th place) and Dennis Eckersley (6th Place). Clemens finished 3rd in that season's MVP voting.
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AG/DC Jul 22 2008 02:48 PM |
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See, my position is that this is really hard and that others are close. Four walks.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 22 2008 02:49 PM |
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Let's redo the 1985 MVP vote.
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AG/DC Jul 22 2008 02:49 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 22 2008 02:54 PM |
It's like he's going to hit Kadafi in the head with a fastball.
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 22 2008 02:52 PM |
I'd like to see the 1988 NL MVP re-voted.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 22 2008 02:57 PM |
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There's different levels of close. There's close to Clemens, on the one hand, but not close enough that anyone could reasonbly claim that Clemens wasn't the best. As I see it. For me, the decision becomes easy once I eliminate the relievers from first place consideration. I don't see how Eck or Thigpen could match Clemens in value pitching less than one third of the innings Clemens pitched. Welch had a gaudy won-loss record because he was very good (though not Clemens good) and received more run support than just about anybody in the AL that season. And then there are the ballparks - Fenway and the Oakland Coliseum - two stadiums about as far apart as possible on the spectrum of offense for 1990.
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John Cougar Lunchbucket Jul 22 2008 02:57 PM |
Bob Welch, overproduced
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 22 2008 02:58 PM |
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I was deciding between 88 and 85 in my Gooden post. 88- I vote Straw.
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 22 2008 03:01 PM |
Name VORP/WARP3
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Valadius Jul 22 2008 03:24 PM |
Eckersley
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Gwreck Jul 22 2008 03:52 PM |
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??? Really?
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Gwreck Jul 22 2008 03:52 PM |
1. Clemens
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 22 2008 03:55 PM |
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Yeah! Without a doubt! I'd much rather see six months of greatness than nine innings worth. I don't even care about the no-hitter thing anymore. In a way, I'd like the Mets to finish their 50th season (2011) as no-hit virgins.
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AG/DC Jul 22 2008 05:25 PM |
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I hear you, but I think VoRP is pretty unreliavle for relievers. Does it factor in leverage like m.e.t.b.o.t. does?
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 22 2008 05:41 PM |
Does metbot do defensive leverage? If so, what does he do to separate the pitching from the fielding?
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Frayed Knot Jul 22 2008 06:54 PM |
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Oh HELL Yeah!!
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 22 2008 07:53 PM |
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[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6231]Nope.[/url]
Yeah, relievers get killed on VORP (perhaps deservedly), but I can't see giving the CY Young to a relief pitcher when a starter has an all-time great season.
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AG/DC Jul 22 2008 10:24 PM |
Well, two relievers had all-time great seasons there, and I think all-time great seasons for starters are like Walter Johnson throwing 370 innings.
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 23 2008 03:44 AM |
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Since 1990, the following pitchers have had better seasons than Clemens' in terms of VORP: 2004- Johan Santana 2003-Esteban Loaiza 2002- Derek Lowe 2000- Pedro Martinez 1999- Pedro Martinez 1998- Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez 1997- Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Andy Pettitte 1996- Pat Hentgen, Alex Fernandez, Ken Hill, Roger Clemens 1995- Randy Johnson 1993- Kevin Appier Some weird entries up there. So, at least by VORP, Clemens' 1990 has been the 16th best season since 1990. You're right- that's probably not an all-time great year. I gotta look into this race more closely. (What's up with 96, by the way? Hentgen's VORP is one of the highest I've ever seen, and 4 people beat a 77.2!)
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AG/DC Jul 23 2008 06:23 AM |
Will do that next maybe. Alex Fernandez? Which one?
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 23 2008 07:10 AM |
Whoops, those were only the AL pitchers with a better VORP since 1990. Throw the following on that list:
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 23 2008 08:01 AM |
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I would tend to agree here. Consider the following hypothetical. The starting star pitcher on your favorite baseball team opens the season in phenomenal fashion, throwing a complete game two-hit shutout and striking out 11 batters. He continues to pitch at this level for the entire month of April, finishing the month with a 4-0 record and some no-decisions thrown in. He's the pitcher of the month and is leading the league in K's and ERA. His dominance continues through the month of May. On Memorial Day, he closes out the month by pitching a complete game no-hitter. His record now stands at 9-0. He is leading the league in every single important pitching statistical category and makes the cover of Sports Illustrated for the issue following his no-hitter. (Jinx!) After his no-hitter, while travelling back to his home, he is involved in a minor automobile collision and, while nobody is seriously hurt, the star pitcher is jostled around from the impact and bangs his throwing shoulder against the car interior. The pitcher sustains a season-ending injury. Could you vote this starting pitcher for the Cy Young Award?
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 23 2008 09:11 AM |
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Well, you could, based on inning for inning value. No one would, though. But relievers, although they pitch much few innings than starters, affect the outcome of many more games than starters. If the relievers are used for the highest-leverage outs in most of those games, you could argue their contribution is comparable to a starter's. The reason I would still give a "tie-breaker" to a starter is that I don't totally believe that relievers were or are used consistently in the highest leverage situations.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 23 2008 10:38 AM |
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But to what extent? A reliever who closes out the ninth inning effectively participates in three batter-pitcher confrontations. All else being equal, a "closer" who retires the side in the last inning of a game is no more impressive to me than a journeyman mopup-man who does the same in the sixth inning. I wouldn't need to look at leverage statistics because I know intuitively that a reliever, even a great one, who pitches 60 or 70 innings in a season cannot have the same impact of an All Star caliber starter who pitches over 200 innings. A guy with 10 bank accounts, each worth $25K, isn't wealthier than a guy with a single million dollar account unless you're basing wealth on the # of bank accounts.
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AG/DC Jul 23 2008 10:51 AM |
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That's what makes this hard.
I disagree at two levels. Firstly, it is more impressive. Secondly, impressiveness isn't what we're measuring here, but rather value.
I think it's definitely worth looking at. Look at that ERA of Eckersley's.
You're losing me. The point is not all outs are worth the same amount at all.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 23 2008 11:07 AM |
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I used the word "impressive" to mean value. So semantics aside, I'm not so sure that there is more value in pitching an effective 9th inning as opposed to, say, a sixth inning, though I'm open-minded enough to be convinced otherwise. The ninth inning doesn't exist in a vacuum. A team can only position itself to give its' closer a save opportunity based on what it did in the previous eight innings.
Reliever's ERA's are highly unreliable. Here's why: the pitcher's slate is wiped clean after he records the inning's third out. As you know, baserunners left on base do not carry over to the next inning. Because relievers frequently enter innings where the defense has already gotten at least one out, sometimes two, a reliever in those situations is allowed to record less than three outs before his slate is wiped clean. By comparison, a starter who walks the first three batters in an inning must either dominate the rest of the inning or be very lucky (probably some of both) to keep his ERA at 0.00 for the inning. This isn't meant to mimimize Eckersley's brilliant 1990 season. But he was a 70 inning pitcher. Clemens was brillianter!
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AG/DC Jul 23 2008 11:31 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 23 2008 11:38 AM |
You don't need to explain to me relievers' ERA. But Eckersley rarely pitched in split innings. I don't know why you would mention it if it isn't relelevant to him.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 23 2008 11:33 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 23 2008 11:45 AM |
Win-Expectancy data for the ninth inning is based on what preceded it. A team entering the last inning will have x chance of winning the game only because of what happened earlier.
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AG/DC Jul 23 2008 11:43 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 26 2008 08:22 PM |
And Eck's 1990 really, I think, forces the issue.
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Vince Coleman Firecracker Jul 23 2008 02:08 PM |
Okay, setting aside in-game situation for a moment, I was thinking about quality of batters faced.
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AG/DC Jul 23 2008 02:30 PM |
I'm not suggesting that Eck faced the opponents' best hitters with necessarily any more frequency than Clemens did, but that he faced the opponents worst hitters with less frequency.
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AG/DC Jul 26 2008 07:07 PM |
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Nymr83 Jul 26 2008 08:00 PM |
1. clemens
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AG/DC Jul 26 2008 09:30 PM |
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Thus far...
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 27 2008 08:22 AM |
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If you're gonna make a fancy box and all, then I'll vote properly. 1. Clemens 2. Stewart 3. Finley
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AG/DC Jul 27 2008 10:17 AM |
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Wow, there I was thinking I would fill an empty niche as "The Adult-Oriented Rocker Who Affected His Presentation by Wearing a Beret and Holding a Stogie and Mic in the Same Hand," and Welch had me outpimped 30 years ago.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 27 2008 11:05 AM |
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Win-Expectancy data, like leverage, yields its' own particular quirks when applied to save situations. These statistics will credit a closer who preserves a lead without much regard for the quality of the save itself. Consider the following hypotheticals: Pitcher A is brought in to pitch the bottom of the ninth inning with his team ahead 3-0. The pitcher strikes out the only three batters he faces, preserving his team's win and recording a save for himself. The next day, Pitcher B appears in the bottom of the bottom of the ninth with his team coincidentally also ahead by the same score of 3-0. Pitcher B yields Home Runs to the first two batters he faces and then walks the next three batters. Pitcher B remains in the game and strikes out the following three batters, stranding all three baserunners and preserving a 3-2 victory for his team. As you may have figured out by now, the Win-Expectancy points (or leverage data) earned by Pitchers A and B are equal notwithstanding the qualitative disparity in their performances. This is so because the teams in the two examples had the precise same chance of winning at the beginning of the last half inning and also, obviously, after the last out was recorded (a 100% chance of winning). Here, Win-Expectancy data is concerned mainly with the starting and ending points. Of course, there is very little similarity in the character of the two saves just as traveling from NYC to Washington DC is not the same experience whether you're a passenger on Air Force-One or an SRO on an Amtrak train. Now I realize that in 1990, Eckersley and Thigpen weren't throwing many -if any- games like Pitcher B did above. But still, relying on Win-Expectancy (or leverage) data as support for an Eckersley Cy, only seems to magnify the greater amount of influence a starting pitcher exerts over the course of a season.
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AG/DC Jul 27 2008 11:19 AM |
I referenced the win expectancy data to distinguish the leverage of the sixth from the ninth.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 27 2008 11:35 AM |
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Whatever the difference is, if there is one, shouldn't be credited to a reliever entering the ninth inning. Those differences, if they exist, are based wholly on the preceding action that occurred before the reliever entered. If we're clever enough to minimize the impact of, for example, RBI's or pitcher's W-L records because we know that those stats are based in large part on the contributions of many others, then we should likewise, not credit the closer with the win-expectancy percentages that apply to the closer's appearance. All things being equal, it's no easier retiring the side in the sixth inning than in the ninth. If Ramon Castro had hit three grand slam homers in the Mets last game of the season last year against the Marlins to force a tiebreaker, and then hit four more grand slam home runs over the next two tiebreaker game to propel the Mets into the post-season, you still wouldn't vote Castro for the NL MVP, would you? Don't the games played in April count the same?
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AG/DC Jul 27 2008 11:43 AM |
Things aren't equal, and it's harder. Harder and more important.
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 27 2008 12:27 PM |
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Which shouldn't be much more than you'd credit Doug Sisk with. Otherwise, what's so special about Eck's 1990? If it's all about saves, than put this years' K-Rod on the pedestal -- the saves leader who just might be the 5th best reliever in the AL this season.
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AG/DC Jul 27 2008 12:30 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 29 2008 10:03 AM |
You're making this a moving target.
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Nymr83 Jul 27 2008 12:30 PM |
did Eckersley blow a save that year? was it 48/48?
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AG/DC Jul 27 2008 12:34 PM |
Looks like he blew two saves, one of which turned into a vulture victory.
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Nymr83 Jul 27 2008 12:44 PM |
ok so he was 96% in save situations, thats still exceptional
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batmagadanleadoff Jul 27 2008 12:46 PM |
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I wasn't equating Sisk with Eck. I thought you were equating Pitcher A with Pitcher B and answered (I thought, but maybe not) accordingly.
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