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Let's Look at Heilman

AG/DC Aug 02 2008 01:35 PM

Aaron was effective in his first inning yesterday and next to useless in his second. I don't know why, and neither do you, most likely. But maybe, with the wealth of data provided by Gameday and the wisdom of the crowd, we can glean some insight. Let's look at him pitch-by-pitch last night. Inning Outs Batter Bats Pitch # Count Type Speed Break PfX Location Result 7 0 Erstad LH 1 1 Fastball 94 9" 11" Outside half, above knees Called Strike 7 0 Erstad LH 2 2 Fastball 93 8" 10" Outside, above knees Ball 7 0 Erstad LH 3 3 Change 84 10" 10" Outside half Foul 7 0 Erstad LH 4 4 Fastball 95 7" 13" Down the pipe Foul 7 0 Erstad LH 5 5 Fastball 95 7" 13" Inside Ball 7 0 Erstad LH 6 6 Change 85 9" 9" Outside corner, just above knees Line single RF 7 0 Quintero RH 1 7 Fastball 95 7" 10" Outside, above knees Called Strike 7 0 Quintero RH 2 8 Fastball 94 8" 12" Inside, at letters Bunt to P, Runner to 2b 7 1 Blum LH 1 9 Fastball 94 8" 13" Away Ball 7 1 Blum LH 2 10 Change 84 9" 13" At Knees Swinging Strike 7 1 Blum LH 3 11 Fastball 95 8" 12" Outside, above knees GO to P, Runner Out, Batter to 1b 7 2 Matsui LH 1 12 Fastball 95 9" 15" Low Ball 7 2 Matsui LH 2 13 Fastball 95 8" 13" Low, Outside Half Swinging Strike 7 2 Matsui LH 3 14 Fastball 95 7" 11" Letters Called Strike 7 2 Matsui LH 4 15 Fastball 95 7" 11" Above belt, away off plate Swinging Strike 8 0 Tejada RH 1 16 Curve 82 11" 7" Center, above belt Called Strike 8 0 Tejada RH 2 17 Fastball 93 7" 10" Inside corner, crotch high Ground 1b, LF 8 0 Berkman LH 1 18 Fastball 93 7" 12" Middle Long Ground Rule 2B, Runner to 3b 8 0 Lee RH 1 19 Int. Ball 67 12" 9" High and away Ball 8 0 Lee RH 2 20 Int. Ball 66 12" 7" High and away Ball 8 0 Lee RH 3 21 Int. Ball 65 13" 11" High and away Ball 8 0 Lee RH 4 22 Int. Ball 66 12" 10" High and away Ball, BB 8 0 Pence RH 1 23 Sinker 83 11" 7" Crotch-high, off plate outside Swinging Strike 8 0 Pence RH 2 24 Slider 83 10" 5" Outside, above knees Ball 8 0 Pence RH 3 25 Fastball 94 7" 13" Inside corner, at knees GO to 1b, runner out at plate 8 1 Loretta RH 1 26 Slider 84 10" 4" Low and away Ball 8 1 Loretta RH 2 27 Fastball 94 8" 12" Inside Corner, Below Belt HR to LF A little help with terms. Speed: This is starting velocity. Termination velocity (when it reaches the front of the plate) is typically five mph slower or so. Break: Measures how much the ball curved compared to a straight line. PFX: Measures the movement of the pitch against gravity. No, I'm not that clear on the distinction on those last two. I'm guessing that low numbers in both of these departments is a hanger, but that's not necesarily a safe assumption --- at best, an oversimplification. A couple of things jump out at me: His fastball was 94-95 in his first inning, but dropped to 93 in his second inning. Does that make a difference? I have no idea, but Tejada's single and Berkman's long double both came on 93-mph fastballs. He muscled up to Matsui --- throwing four 95-mph fastballs. Maybe he overdid it and gassed himself a bit. His change sat 10 mph slower than his fastball. Is that enough of a difference. He apparently mixed it up with Pence, opening with two pitches outside of his usual repertoire. This could suggest that he was losing confidence in his fastall and/or his slider, or that the stringer that was entering the data mis-labeled two of his change-ups. Or maybe the data recorder cameras decide what kind of pitch it was. Both the double and the homer were on pitches that were up --- one that was at the belt and one just below it. We've seen a lot more of this guy than Dan Warthan has. He needs our help.

AG/DC Aug 02 2008 09:35 PM

Let's look at Wagner.

Number 6 Aug 03 2008 03:41 AM

I`m happy to be in a place where I don`t have to look at either of them.

Farmer Ted Aug 03 2008 05:32 AM

I'd rather look at his wife. Him, not so much.

AG/DC Aug 05 2008 07:56 PM

See, youse bitches should've helped me figure him out this weekend.

metsguyinmichigan Aug 05 2008 08:03 PM

What can you do at this point? Could the possibly feel comfortable bringing him into a close game? Would Muniz or anyone else in NO do worse?

Frayed Knot Aug 05 2008 08:06 PM

I think it's been shown that just about EVERYONE on the staff CAN and HAS done worse (or at least as bad). After all, it's not like Sanchez, Smith, Schoeneweis, Feliciano, etc. haven't also blown up at critical times. I think we just expect more from Heilman and aren't getting it. I don't know what to suggest at this point.

seawolf17 Aug 05 2008 08:13 PM

I suggest we trade him to Europe.

smg58 Aug 05 2008 08:16 PM

I think Heilman just pitched his way out of seeing any more meaningful situations this year, if he didn't pitch himself off the team entirely. I don't know what's wrong, but it took five days in August to completely cancel out his July. What a mess. I've been willing to defend Heilman, and certainly the Heilman of the previous three seasons would be a much needed asset to this team, but I can't see him righting himself to the point where I'd trust him the rest of the way.

AG/DC Aug 05 2008 08:51 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 05 2008 09:18 PM

metsguyinmichigan wrote: What can you do at this point? Could the possibly feel comfortable bringing him into a close game? Would Muniz or anyone else in NO do worse? That's two "can't do worse"-es out of you today. We can and will with that attitude. Watch Heilman closely. There's an answer in there. Is his change not going for strikes? Are his fastballs up? Have they lost their movement? There's a key. And remember, you've seen more of him than his pitching coach.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 05 2008 09:11 PM

smg58 wrote: I think Heilman just pitched his way out of seeing any more meaningful situations this year, if he didn't pitch himself off the team entirely. I don't know what's wrong, but it took five days in August to completely cancel out his July. What a mess. I've been willing to defend Heilman, and certainly the Heilman of the previous three seasons would be a much needed asset to this team, but I can't see him righting himself to the point where I'd trust him the rest of the way. Really? I mean this whole thing only happened because the rest of the candidates all fell away and he's asked to carry it every night: 3 innings, 2 innings, close games, 4-run leads, whatever. He's not been right - too many HRs all year long and seems to lose his concentration too often and all but I can't see this stretch as poor as it is a trough he can't get out of given any support. Tonight his mates had his back and the 3 he allowed are immaterial.

Nymr83 Aug 05 2008 11:12 PM

i was at the game tonight and fwelt like the mets were gonna lose as soon as heilman walked the leadoff man. and if i were the manager [u:e7768ed8c4]i would have pulled him out of the game right there[/u:e7768ed8c4]. a 4 pitch walk with a 4 run lead is unacceptable. the 3-0 and probably even 2-0 pitches should have been right down the pipe if necessary.

AG/DC Aug 06 2008 05:50 AM

Feelings are fine, but they ain't facts. The Mets didn't lose You can call something unacceptable, but that won't stop it from happening. It's a tough job, but a Manuel (or a Randolph) is tasked with winning today and finding the right calculus to keep winning. Sometimes, that means keeping your cool with a four run lead and trying to let a guy work a guy through his adversity.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 06 2008 06:31 AM

There's no way I'd pull a pitcher for walking a leadoff batter with a four-run lead. That smells like panic, and it's what, to me, was the last straw with Willie Randolph when he did it with Feliciano against Florida last September.

AG/DC Aug 06 2008 06:38 AM

Thank you.

Farmer Ted Aug 06 2008 06:55 AM

You could even hear the frustration from Ron Darling last night..."He's not giving up hits, he's giving up bombs!" Nine jacks off Heilman this year. I'm not sure Davey Johnson would even want Heilman on the Olympic team right now.

Frayed Knot Aug 06 2008 07:09 AM

Let's avert our eyes from Heilman.

AG/DC Aug 06 2008 07:09 AM

On the other hand, Davey Johnson sailed was willling to risk sailing HMS 1985 right into the rocks trying to redeem Doug Sisk back into the pitcher he knew Sisk could be, rather than agree with Cashen's plan to go get a starting pitcher, which would have freed Aguilera up for bullpen. A manager has to be willling to take a lot of heat standing by a pitcher when the boobirds want to flay him. The Mets have a TBA start coming up. Yogi Berra might throw Tug McGraw a start in such a situtation. Maybe Manuel should reach back to the old school and do the same.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 06 2008 07:10 AM

Except that Tug is dead at the present time.

AG/DC Aug 06 2008 07:17 AM

Wow. Shooting down my Yogi strategy with a Yogi-ism. Well played, sir.

metsguyinmichigan Aug 06 2008 07:55 AM

Manuel saying today that it's the lead-off walk -- not the single and the bomb -- that will cost Heilman the closer's spot. But Kunz in there. He can't do, err, closing is what he did in NO.

AG/DC Aug 06 2008 08:10 AM

Well, the single was butt. That was his teammates failing to pick him up as surely as he failed them.

AG/DC Aug 06 2008 06:13 PM

Pedro, by comparison, has a fastball sitting around 88 tonight, ranging from 86-89, with his change coming in at 77-79, so he has the same 10-mph difference as Heilman, but maybe the slower velocity is giving him a better break. His changeup break seems to be 11-14" while Heilman's was 9-10". He also has his curve coming in at 71. Pedro's first pitch for the homer was a neither-here-nor-there 84-mph gimme down the middle.

attgig Aug 08 2008 01:24 PM

btw... ] Q: What is the PFX value? A: The "Pitch-f/x" value is currently defined as the measurement of the distance between the location of the actual pitch thrown over the plate, and the calculated location of a ball thrown by the pitcher in the same way, with no spin; this is the value we provided in Enhanced Gameday last season as "Break". The new Break value, which we feel is more appropriate for the common understanding of the term, is defined as the measurement of the greatest distance between the trajectory of the pitch at any point between the release point and the front of home plate, and the straight line path from the release point and the front of home plate. By this definition, a Barry Zito curveball will have a much greater Break value than a Brad Penny fastball.