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Joel Sherman: Finger on the Pulse

John Cougar Lunchbucket Aug 21 2008 08:16 AM

Doesn't really get it either time but fun to watch him chase down the big story of the day as only a Veteran Experienced Journalist can: Joel Sherman, March 9: ]DEARTH VALLEY By JOEL SHERMAN March 9, 2008 -- PORT ST. LUCIE Of course they had to do the deal. There is universal approval for that. The Mets had to take four prospects and make their biggest problem vanish by acquiring Johan Santana to front their rotation. Get The Latest From Joel On His Blog But as one AL executive said, "they have no safety net now." The Mets are out on a dangerous high wire. They have a 25-man roster that could - and maybe should - win the NL pennant. Nevertheless, that roster is proving brittle so far this spring, raising the likelihood the Mets will need their farm system to provide reinforcements through either promotions or in trades. But is the pipeline reliable? The package for Santana of Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber removed the prospects Baseball America had ranked 2, 3, 4 and 7 in the Mets system. Also, since July 30, the Mets have traded five other prospects to obtain Luis Castillo, Jeff Conine, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, including Lastings Milledge and a 20-year-old shortstop, Jose Castro (for Conine), whom many in the organization really liked. Add the ill-fated deals from the previous offseason that cost Heath Bell, Henry Owens, Matt Lindstrom and Brian Bannister, and you see why an NL general manager said, "The Mets system is not very good in terms of quantity or quality after the Santana trade." Eighteen months ago, the Mets thought they had a high-end outfield of the future looming of Fernando Martinez, Gomez and Milledge. Now only Martinez remains. They thought they had starting pitching emerging with Bannister, Guerra, Mulvey, Humber and Mike Pelfrey. Now only Pelfrey remains. Owens, Lindstrom and Bell all might have eased the injury loss of Duaner Sanchez. Baseball America recently placed the Mets 28th among the 30 teams in ranking which organizations have the most prospects likely to help in 2008. Baseball Prospectus ranked the Mets 28th in overall farm talent. Mets VP of Player Development Tony Bernazard chuckles at the perception, saying, "All the same people said we didn't have enough talent to get Santana. ... We were always confident we had players, and we remain confident we have players." Nevertheless, even Met officials concede their upper levels are thin. The Mets, in fact, consider this a vital year for their system because: a) they think they are deep in the lower levels owing to a strong draft last year combined with a burgeoning group of young, international signs, and b) thanks to free-agent compensation for losing Tom Glavine, the Mets pick 18th and 33rd overall in June in addition to their own slot at 22nd. They have not had a top-40 selection since taking Pelfrey ninth in 2005. For now, how you rate the Mets system comes down to what you think about Martinez and whether their more inexperienced skilled youngsters can blossom quickly. With Gomez and Guerra gone, Martinez was the lone Met ranked in the top 100 prospects by ESPN (10th overall), Baseball America (20th) and Baseball Prospectus (51st). In fact, no Met was even among the additional 92 prospects receiving votes by Baseball America. Thus, Martinez is vital. Nevertheless, like with Gomez, there is a wide spectrum of views on his true worth. An NL GM, while saying there is too much hype around Martinez, nevertheless vouched, "We see him as an above-average major leaguer with broad-base skills and enough hitting/power potential to produce as a corner outfielder." Nevertheless, a veteran scout called Martinez "a fourth outfielder" because of skepticism about his defense, athleticism and base running. An AL GM said, "Fernando Martinez's name is so much bigger than his game. Over the winter, people kept saying he was their best prospect. Carlos Gomez was their best prospect." The general agreement is Martinez is no center fielder, will have to play right, and will go as far as his lefty swing allows. The Mets have promoted him aggressively and, at 19, he again will likely be the youngest player at Double-A. Bernazard said, "Fernando's bat is way ahead of his age. And here is an important item, he wants to be great." Martinez will be joined at Double-A by lefty Jon Niese. Bernazard fought robustly to keep Guerra out of the Santana trade. But with Guerra gone, Niese becomes the Mets' best starting prospect. Nevertheless, like Mulvey, he projects more to the back end of a rotation. Beyond that, the Mets must do a lot of hoping, wishing and praying. They like the pitchers (Eddie Kunz, Nathan Vineyard, Scott Moviel and Brant Rustich) selected with their top four picks last June. The hard, sinking fastball of Kunz, the closer for NCAA champion Oregon State, has impressed the Mets enough that they will let him open at Double-A. That fits the Mets' philosophy. They promote their best talent aggressively. To that end, they plan to push center fielder Ezequiel Carrera and shortstop Ruben Tejada from Rookie League last year to High-A this year based largely on how impressive they have been in this camp filling in during the spate of injuries. Tejada, a Panamanian signed for $30,000, has particularly impressed in the field, with one scout likening him to "a young Ozzie Guillen" and Bernazard saying, "He's a special, special player." Another youngster who has the Mets excited is shortstop Wilmer Flores. How young is he? Flores was born two months after the Blue Jays selected the now retired Shawn Green in the first round (1991). Just 16 and the Mets' top international sign last August, Flores has elated the Mets with advanced hitting skills. Unfortunately, his ETA is around 2011. And the Mets are on the high wire now. joel.sherman@nypost.com Joel Sherman, today ]AMAZIN' YOUTH WINS NY BATTLE Posted: 3:08 am August 21, 2008 DANIEL MURPHY came up with the bases loaded and two outs in the first inning. The Brave-Metsgame was scoreless. Atlanta's fine young starter Jair Jurrjens got ahead 1-2. But one piece of information we have learned about Murphy quickly is that he has some Wade Boggs in him. He is unflappable behind in the count. He again demonstrated extreme discipline in laying off the kind of just off-the-black changeup that will seduce even the most experienced hitters. "It was a good one," Murphy said. "It just wasn't a strike." So Murphy furthered the at-bat, and, on pitch No. 7, he delivered a two-run single. That sparked a five-run inning that propelled the Mets to a 6-3 triumph. The hit also helped make a winner of Mike Pelfrey, who eliminated the need to include the Mets' shaky bullpen by delivering his first career complete game to take over the team lead in wins (12). So this game was yet another reminder that - forecasts to the contrary - the Mets' young players are outdoing their Yankee counterparts in 2008. That is among the reasons the Mets are in first place and the Yanks are barely hanging in the wild-card race. Pelfrey, at 24, is just 11 months older than Ian Kennedy. Yet while Pelfrey was becoming the first Mets hurler 24 or younger to win 12 games since Bobby Jones went 12-7 in his age-24 season in 1994, Kennedy was losing last night at Triple-A. The starting center-fielder behind him was Melky Cabrera, who hit so poorly this season that Johnny Damon was in center in Toronto on Tuesday night to mess up a game. Cabrera was flanked by Shelley Duncan, who was supposed to supply righty pop for the Yanks this season. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is where a lot of 2008 Yankee dreams have gone to die this season. Robinson Cano isn't a batting champ as projected. He is a disappointment. The four young starters the Yanks were most counting upon this year - Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Jeff Marquez and Alan Horne - have tanked so badly physically and via performance that Carl Pavano likely will start a critical game Saturday. Hughes, Kennedy, Marquez and Cabrera were among the players the Yanks did not want to part with when they were first in line to obtain Johan Santana. That enabled the Mets to sneak in and land him despite not giving up Pelfrey. Nick Evans has joined Murphy in a left-field platoon bringing not only production, but energy. And for the record, both David Wright and Jose Reyes are younger than Cano, and Wright is definitely an MVP candidate, and Reyes will probably be part of the discussion, as well. When it comes to Kennedy and Hughes, the Yanks should actually take encouragement from Pelfrey. He was dreadful the past two seasons, including beginning 0-7 last year. He was not even sure to make the rotation this year. But he has grown up before our eyes, throwing that overpowering sinker with such conviction and success that Jerry Manuel said, "Mike has evolved into one of the bright young pitching stars of the National League." Though Murphy has played in just 19 games - and reached safely in 18 of them with a .491 on-base percentage - his disciplined batting eye and willingness to drive the ball with authority to left field strongly imply that he is going to be a successful hitter. "Remarkable," Carlos Delgado called Murphy's advanced approach for someone so young. "You can't teach what he already can do." Murphy appeared on no Top-100 - or even Top 300 - prospect lists before the season and Pelfrey - not Hughes or Kennedy - seemed the pitcher most likely to end up back at Triple-A. But here they both are playing major roles on a first-place team. The Yankee system got the praise, yet the Mets had enough pieces not only to land Santana, but to sprinkle their roster with youngsters thriving in late August. There are thirtysomething games left in the season, and the Mets are winning the battle of New York because - surprisingly - their twentysomethings have been more impressive. joel.sherman@nypost.com

metirish Aug 21 2008 08:28 AM

It is refreshing to see that young players from a supposedly thin system are up with the big club and thriving. Darling said it again last night , these aren't guys that light up a computer when you punch their names in , Murphy played with Bernazrad's son in college , he liked what he saw and the Mets drafted him. The fact that the MFY's hotshots are blowing chunks shouldn't matter but it makes it sweeter. I wanted to add that Darling seems fond of saying things like that , comes across as more a scouts guy than a stats guy.

Frayed Knot Aug 21 2008 09:04 AM

metirish wrote: Darling said it again last night , these aren't guys that light up a computer when you punch their names in , Murphy played with Bernazrad's son in college , he liked what he saw and the Mets drafted him ... Darling seems fond of saying things like that , comes across as more a scouts guy than a stats guy. I heard that too but saw it more as a perpetuation of the idea that baseball is being run by a bunch of computer nerds who are missing out on all kinds of stuff becase they have their heads buried too far into their spreadsheets. Plus, if he really wants to divide things into two distinct camps, Murphy is probably more a "stats" guy - college pick, high OPB/plate discipline, decent power - than an old-fashioned, speedy and oozing with athleticism scouts' kind of pick.

G-Fafif Aug 21 2008 01:25 PM

JCL, you must have inadvertently cut and pasted incorrectly, because Joel Sherman's all-knowing spring column doesn't include his explicit mentions of Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans and Argenis Reyes and how he projected them into the big picture for 2008. Joel Sherman's a baseball expert, so I assume he had those guys covered like a tarp.

AG/DC Aug 21 2008 02:21 PM

If you punch Darling's comment into a computer, it doesn't exactly light up.

RealityChuck Aug 21 2008 08:20 PM

Frayed Knot wrote: Plus, if he really wants to divide things into two distinct camps, Murphy is probably more a "stats" guy - college pick, high OPB/plate discipline, decent power - than an old-fashioned, speedy and oozing with athleticism scouts' kind of pick. So if he is a "stats" guy, why didn't the stats analysts mention him? Hmmn?

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2008 07:28 AM

Well the point is that I don't think (as Darling seemed to imply) that folks had dismissed Murphy on account of not being able to see through their slide-rules. Fact is I don't think Murphy was on anybody's radar before this year. When you start as a 13th round pick and then have an OK, though hardly eye-popping, season + 1/2 of minor league ball it doesn't get you on top of all the pre-season hot prospect lists no matter what kind of 'approach' you come from. This year certainly, for whatever reason, he seems to have put things all together and was certainly rewarded for it.

AG/DC Aug 22 2008 07:33 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 22 2008 07:39 AM

And, had he not been promoted, folks who prefer using statistics over scouting analysis to project a prospect's future likely wouldn't have overlooked his AA performance.

TheOldMole Aug 22 2008 07:38 AM

Murphy liked Bernazard's son?

RealityChuck Aug 22 2008 07:44 AM

="AG/DC"]And, had he not been promoted, folks who prefer using statistics over scouting analysis to project a prospect's future likely wouldn't have overlooked his AA performance. Or they would have. And even if they had, they would have been a year too late. You can be pretty damn accurate if you're using hindsight and what if's. But that's not very useful in evaluating a player before he's promoted.

AG/DC Aug 22 2008 07:45 AM

For what it's worth, it's not clear what Darling meant. He may well have meant that if you punch scouting ratings of his foot speed, bat speed, power, arm strength, and agility into a computer, it wouldn't have lit up. Which would be a fair enough point to make. He still doesn't really have a position. When, inevitably, his hits stop falling in at this rate, that may be a problem. Maybe he'll continue to hit well enough to be an average-fielding leftfielder, but it's sure unclear where else he can play.

AG/DC Aug 22 2008 07:48 AM

="RealityChuck"] ="AG/DC"]And, had he not been promoted, folks who prefer using statistics over scouting analysis to project a prospect's future likely wouldn't have overlooked his AA performance. Or they would have. And even if they had, they would have been a year too late. You can be pretty damn accurate if you're using hindsight and what if's. But that's not very useful in evaluating a player before he's promoted. I'm not using anything. What's your point? Did you see Murphy coming and hitting .400 this year before anybody else did? Or is it the same argument that you can predict everyone will have the same year as least season and be as accurate as the best statistical analyst in the land?

metirish Aug 22 2008 07:59 AM

I really didn't mean to try and peg Darling into any one category , it seems to me though that Ron(especially when Keith is there) likes to say things that can be taken as a negative towards 'stats guys' or as he has called them ' the computer guys' , but maybe that's just what I am hearing.

AG/DC Aug 22 2008 08:29 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 26 2008 08:03 AM

I liked the notion of Darling as a scouts guy, whatever he is, because a big part of the plot of Dollar Sign on the Muscle was scouts panting over Darling like he was Donny Osmond, hyprventilating over him having "the good face."

Fman99 Aug 22 2008 09:30 AM

I would've suggested "Joel Sherman: Thumb in the Anus" as a better title for this thread. NTTAWWT

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2008 12:23 PM

]it seems to me though that Ron(especially when Keith is there) likes to say things that can be taken as a negative towards 'stats guys' or as he has called them ' the computer guys' But not nearly as much as Gary does. He barely even makes an attempt to hide his contempt for the stats crowd.

AG/DC Aug 22 2008 12:49 PM

To draw a distinction (and you may hear this differently), Gary's contempt seems to be for "guys who use data to argue for changing approaches to strategy," and not as much for "guys who use data to argue for changing approaches to prospect evaluation." Seems to me is that he's singing the old school song as much to suck up to Ron and Keith as anything.

metirish Aug 22 2008 12:55 PM

I think Keith is the problem , often I hear Ron make a point then say " isn't that right Keith " , and often Keith is not paying attention. I think Keith is now on vacation . I don't want to sound here like I don't like Ron becasue I do.

AG/DC Aug 22 2008 12:56 PM

Keith's catching up on the scorecard.

Frayed Knot Aug 26 2008 07:42 AM

Just to get back to the Murphy discussion, prospect guru John Sickels reprinted his pre-season analysis: Murphy was drafted in the 13th round in ’06, from the University of Jacksonville. He’s received little attention, but he was very successful in college, and he performed fairly well last year in the Florida State League, posting a +8 percent OPS, not great but safely above average. A line drive hitter, he’s not a walk machine, but he controls the zone well and doesn’t strike out much. His defense at third base is average, but he should be able to remain at the position if he continues to hit. Murphy will need to show more power at higher levels, which may require some tinkering with his swing to add more loft. I do think he’s a sleeper though. I don't really think this adds much to the 'scouts vs stats' debate. I don't consider Sickels to be firmly on either side plus it's not like the two are mutually exclusive to start with. But based on the pedestrian draft spot and small sample size prior to this year I'd be surprised if anyone from either the computer nerd or the tobacco chewers camps were raising the roof over him. He then then adds a follow-up based on this season to date: Murphy showed that additional power this year, hitting .315/.379/.493 in Double-A, posting an OPS of +17 percent compared to the Eastern League context, much improved compared to '07. I think he's been a bit over his head with the Mets and will settle down as a .280+ hitter, but with an above average on-base percentage and at least moderate power. An infielder in the minors, he's playing left field in the majors, and has proven to be an excellent defensive outfielder, at least statistically, already posting a +6 mark according to the Fielding Bible, and a 117 rate mark according to Baseball Prospectus. So is Murphy a fluke? Yes and no. He won't hit .350 in a full season, and I don't think he will be a big-time classic power-hitting corner outfielder. However, he does a lot of things genuinely well, gets on base, has some pop in his bat, looks really good defensively in the outfield, and could play in the infield if needed. I like the way he controls the strike zone; his BB/K/AB ratio is excellent and projects very well for his future. This is an example of a guy who was a polished college player who has been able to take his game ot the next level. He's fun to root for, and the Mets should get good use out of him over the coming seasons. A bit optimistic on the defensive end if you ask me.

MFS62 Aug 26 2008 08:09 AM

My impression is that Murph's early success was hitting to left field. In recent games, opposing scouts may have caught on, and other teams are pitching him and playing him to hit that way. It will be interesting to see how well he adjusts. Later

duan Aug 26 2008 10:26 AM for me

i'd be saying to mr murphy to go to a winter league with a 2nd baseman's glove and work your ass off at it. Could someone draft in a Rey Sanchez type maybe to work with him over the winter or something like that.