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At the 54 game mark ...

Frayed Knot Jun 05 2005 08:40 PM

OK, since the earlier thread checking where teams were at various points in the season was lost to the E-ZDisaster, I'll have to pick up here - at the 1/3 point of the season. As was the case before, all records shown are where the teams were at the completion of their 54th game. But also, in addition to being a good spot to check up on how things are going, the 1/3 point in the season is also the first best time to check on how individual players are going and where their seasons will wind up if they continue "at this rate". So after the teams' current records are selected individual stats shown as projections for the full year. NL East Braves: 29-25 Rafael Furcal - 492 outs (684 plate app - .280 OBA) Nationals: 28-26 Brad Wilkerson - 171 Ks NYM: 28-26 Jose Reyes - 24 BBs Marlins: 28-26 Dontrelle Willis - 27-6, 1.85 ERA Phillies: 27-27 Jim Thome - 6 HRs NL Central Cardinals: 35-19 Albert Pujols - 84 XBH Cubs: 29-25 Derrick Lee - 380/467/710; 51 HRs, 153 RBIs Brewers: 26-28 Russel Branyan - 291 ABs, 117 Ks Pirates: 25-29 Ty Wigginton - 15 HRs, .204/.261.398 Reds: 21-33 Sean Casey - 36 GiDPs (One-season record = 36 by Jim Rice) Astros: 20-34 Craig Biggio - 18 HBPs (his 12th will break Don Baylor's career record of 267) NL West Padres: 33-21 Sean Burroughs - 429 ABs, 6 extra-base hits Diamondbacks: 30-24 Russ Ortiz - 108 BBs, 78 Ks Dodgers: 27-27 Jason Phillips - 444 ABs, 9 HRs, 81 RBIs Giants: 24-30 Moises Alou - 414 ABs, 21 Ks Rockies: 18-36 Todd Helton - 15 HRs, .257 BA AL East Orioles: 32-22 Brian Roberts: 612 ABs / 33 HRs / 393 TBs (prior career totals - 1,502 / 12 / 541) Red Sox: 30-24 Keith Foulke - 78 IPs / 90 H / 30 BBs / 54 Ks / 36Svs / 6 Blown Svs Blue Jays: 28-26 Roy Halladay - 255 IPs (most in MLB) NYY: 27-27 Carl Pavano - 279 Hits allowed (most in MLB) Team Clean-up slot - 6 HRs Devil Rays: 19-35 Scott Kazmir: 191 IP; 180 H; 102 BBs; 141 Ks AL Central White Sox: 36-18 Scott Posednik - 84 steals / 27 caught stealing Twins: 32-22 Brad Radke - 246 IPs, 150 Ks, 9 BBs Tigers: 26-28 Vance Wilson - 108 ABs, .111/.220/.111 Indians: 25-29 Aaron Boone - 486 ABs, 78 Hits (.160/.211/.259) Royals: 17-37 Joe McEwing - 177 ABs / 3 extra-base hits / 0 BBs AL West Angels: 31-23 Francisco Rodriguez - 51 IPs / 30 H / 15 BBs / 72 Ks / 30 Saves / 0 Blown Rangers: 31-23 David Delucci - 123 walks Mariners: 23-31 Ichiro - 210 Hits A's: 21-33 Eric Chavez - 15 HRs / .230 BA / .288 OBA

Swan Swan H Jun 05 2005 09:46 PM

After the games of June 5 the Yankees are sx games out of first place - more games out of first than every team in the NL East combined.

Frayed Knot Jun 06 2005 08:16 AM Edited 5 time(s), most recently on Jun 06 2005 08:59 AM

So let's see how well HTML charts work here ... 10 Games 25 Games 40 Games 54 Games ATL 6 - 4 15 - 10 23 - 17 29 - 25 WASH 6 - 4 13 - 12 22 - 18 28 - 26 NYM 5 - 5 12 - 13 21 - 19 28 - 26 FLA 5 - 5 15 - 10 24 - 16 28 - 26 PHIL 4 - 6 11 - 14 18 - 22 27 - 27 StL 6 - 4 15 - 10 25 - 15 35 - 19 CHIC 4 - 6 12 - 13 18 - 22 29 - 25 MILW 5 - 5 12 - 13 19 - 21 26 - 28 PITT 4 - 6 9 - 16 19 - 21 25 - 29 CINC 5 - 5 10 - 15 14 - 26 21 - 33 HOU 5 - 5 11 - 14 15 - 25 20 - 34 SD 5 - 5 11 - 14 24 - 16 33 - 21 ARZ 6 - 4 15 - 10 23 - 17 30 - 24 LAD 8 - 2 16 - 9 22 - 18 27 - 27 SF 5 - 5 14 - 11 19 - 21 24 - 30 COL 2 - 8 6 - 19 12 - 28 18 - 36

Frayed Knot Jun 06 2005 08:38 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 06 2005 08:41 AM

10 Games 25 Games 40 Games 54 Games BALT 5 - 5 17 - 8 26 - 14 32 - 22 BOST 5 - 5 13 - 12 23 - 17 30 - 24 TOR 7 - 3 13 - 12 21 - 19 28 - 26 NYY 4 - 6 10 - 15 21 - 19 27 - 27 TB 4 - 6 8 - 17 14 - 26 19 - 35 CHIW 7 - 3 18 - 7 28 - 12 36 - 18 MINN 7 - 3 15 - 10 24 - 16 32 - 22 DET 3 - 7 12 - 13 19 - 21 26 - 28 CLEV 4 - 6 10 - 15 17 - 23 25 - 29 KC 4 - 6 7 - 18 11 - 29 17 - 37 LAA 6 - 4 14 - 11 23 - 17 31 - 23 TEX 4 - 6 12 - 13 21 - 19 31 - 23 SEA 5 - 5 12 - 13 16 - 24 23 - 31 OAK 4 - 6 13 - 12 16 - 24 21 - 33

TheOldMole Jun 06 2005 08:39 AM

Consistent, aren't we?

Edgy DC Jun 06 2005 08:46 AM

I edited LF's post to close the table.

Frayed Knot Jun 06 2005 08:58 AM

So why the hell didn't you correct any of my math mistakes while you were in there ya lazy bum?!? (I think I got them all at this point)

Edgy DC Jun 06 2005 09:08 AM

I have to fix coding errors because they can kerflutz everything else on the page, but it's good policy not to touch peeps content. Only time I think I ever did that was when that stray ESPN rolodex was published, which seemed like violation of our usage agreement. ezboard did occasionally check on that sort of thing.

Frayed Knot Jul 06 2005 08:32 AM

We've hit the halfway point. Below shows where each team was as they hit the 81 game point, how many wins that projects to over a full season, and how that projection compares to how many they won last season. TEAM 81 Game Rec. Proj. Wins # Wins '04 Proj. +/(-) WASH 50 - 31 100 67 +33 ATL 44 - 37 88 96 -8 FLA 42 - 39 84 83 +1 PHI 41 - 40 82 86 -4 NYM 40 - 41 80 71 +9 StL 51 - 30 102 105 -3 CHI 40 - 41 80 89 -9 HOU 39 - 42 78 92 -14 MILW 38 - 43 76 67 +9 PIT 35 - 46 70 72 -2 CINN 31 - 50 62 76 -14 SD 44 - 37 88 87 +1 ARZ 39 - 42 78 51 +27 LAD 38 - 43 76 93 -17 SF 34 - 47 68 91 -23 COL 28 - 53 58 68 -10 TEAM 81 Game Rec. Proj. Wins # Wins '04 Proj. +/(-) BOS 46 - 35 92 98 -6 BALT 44 - 37 88 78 +10 NYY 42 - 39 84 101 -17 TOR 41 - 40 82 67 +15 TB 27 - 54 54 70 -16 CHIW 55 - 26 110 83 +27 MINN 46 - 35 92 92 0 CLEV 45 - 36 90 80 +10 DET 38 - 43 76 72 +4 KC 26 - 55 52 58 -6 LAA 50 - 31 100 92 +8 TEX 43 - 38 86 89 -3 OAK 40 - 41 80 91 -11 SEA 35 - 46 70 63 +7

Willets Point Jul 06 2005 08:58 AM

I like the whole Yankees not making the playoffs aspect of the projection.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 06 2005 09:01 AM

I'm much less optimistic about that than I was a month ago. I think the Yankees will end up with about 90 wins. Not enough, probably, for a division title, but it might get them a wild card. And didn't they win the World Series in 2000 with only about 88 wins?

Elster88 Jul 06 2005 09:02 AM

87, I think, though they had clinched the division with their 84th win about three weeks earlier, IIRC.

Elster88 Jul 06 2005 09:02 AM

Yankee pride and all that.

Willets Point Jul 06 2005 09:05 AM

If I recall correctly the Yankees lost a game, but then the Red Sox lost too thus allowing the Yankees clinch and they had the usual bachanallian champagne orgy despite the embarrassing fashion in which they clinched. The Post or the News had a photo of a champagne-drenched Torre that we all mocked at Mets Online.

Frayed Knot Jul 06 2005 11:52 AM

I think the Yanx have a better chance at their division then they do at the Wild Card. If Boston had played better during the NYY downtime I might think differently, but after a half-season of mediocrity they're only a few good days from being in 1st place. It's certainly not a given, but with even a decent year out of Boston there'd be a 10-game gap right now. Instead, they have to outlast each of the 3 teams from what is now almost a dead heat. With the WC, yeah they have the cushion of losing out to one of the AL-East teams but then have to outlast ALL of the other contenders: Minny, Injuns, Rangers, (maybe even the suddenly hot A's) plus the remainder of the East non-winners. Meanwhile, those east teams are likely to spend the 2nd half beating each other up. Cleveland and Minny, on the other hand, have MUCH easier skeds remaining as far as playing .500+ teams (something like 30-some games for Cleveland vs 60+ for the Yanx).

Frayed Knot Jul 06 2005 11:53 AM

Team progressions throughout the year to date: 10 Games 25 Games 40 Games 54 Games 81 Games WASH 6 - 4 13 - 12 22 - 18 28 - 26 50 - 31 ATL 6 - 4 15 - 10 23 - 17 29 - 25 44 - 37 FLA 5 - 5 15 - 10 24 - 16 28 - 26 42 - 39 PHIL 4 - 6 11 - 14 18 - 22 28 - 26 41 - 40 METS 5 - 5 12 - 13 21 - 19 28 - 26 40 - 41 StL 7 - 3 15 - 10 25 - 15 35 - 19 51 - 30 CHIC 4 - 6 12 - 13 18 - 22 29 - 25 40 - 41 HOU 5 - 5 11 - 14 15 - 25 20 - 34 39 - 42 MILW 5 - 5 12 - 13 19 - 21 26 - 28 38 - 43 PITT 4 - 6 9 - 16 9 - 16 19 - 21 35 - 46 CINN 5 - 5 10 - 15 14 - 26 26 - 28 38 - 43 SD 5 - 5 11 - 14 24 - 16 33 - 21 44 - 37 ARZ 6 - 4 14 - 10 23 - 17 30 - 24 38 - 43 LAD 8 - 2 16 - 9 22 - 18 27 - 27 38 - 43 SF 5 - 5 14 - 11 19 - 21 24 - 30 34 - 47 COL 2 - 8 6 - 14 12 - 28 18 - 36 28 - 53 We're being very consistant with our inconsistancy. 10 Games 25 Games 40 Games 54 Games 81 Games BOST 5 - 5 13 - 12 23 - 17 30 - 24 46 - 35 BALT 5 - 5 17 - 8 26 - 14 32 - 22 44 - 37 NYY 4 - 6 10 - 15 21 - 19 27 - 27 42 - 39 TOR 7 - 3 13 - 12 21 - 19 28 - 26 41 - 40 TB 4 - 6 8 - 17 14 - 26 19 - 35 27 - 54 CHIW 7 - 3 18 - 7 28 - 12 36 - 18 55 - 26 MINN 7 - 3 15 - 10 24 - 16 32 - 22 46 - 35 CLEV 4 - 6 10 - 15 17 - 23 25 - 29 45 - 36 DET 3 - 7 12 - 13 19 - 21 26 - 28 38 - 43 KC 4 - 6 7 - 18 11 - 29 17 - 37 26 - 55 LAA 6 - 4 14 - 11 23 - 17 31 - 23 50 - 31 TEX 4 - 6 12 - 13 21 - 19 31 - 23 43 - 38 OAK 4 - 6 13 - 12 16 - 24 21 - 33 40 - 41 SEA 5 - 5 12 - 13 16 - 24 23 - 31 35 - 46

Elster88 Jul 06 2005 12:29 PM

The 54 game mark for the NL East still boggles my mind.

Rotblatt Jul 06 2005 12:40 PM

Boston needs Curt to come back at 100% and stay that way. That should really help them a lot, especially cause it'll allow Arroyo to go back to the pen. Getting Foulke straightened out would help too, but the bigger thing, IMO, is getting him out of there for now. Use Timlin in the high-leverage spots until it looks like Foulke has turned the corner; if it looks like he's not going to, then find a top-notch reliever and pay whatever you need to for him. If they can do all that, and stay relatively healthy, I think they'll be able to stay atop the East. I suspect the Sox and Yankees will continue to make it interesting as Baltimore fades away, though . . .

Frayed Knot Aug 07 2005 12:50 PM

All teams have now reached the 108-game mark (2/3 of the season). The table shows each team's records at game 108, plus a comparison as to how their wins in the first 1/3 of the season stacks up to their wins in the second third. Rec @ 108 1st 54 2nd 54 Diff ATL 62 - 48 29 33 +4 WASH 58 - 50 28 30 +2 FLA 56 - 52 28 28 0 PHIL 56 - 52 27 29 +2 NYM 54 - 54 28 26 -2 StL 68 - 40 35 33 -2 HOU 59 - 49 20 39 +19 CHIC 54 - 54 29 25 -4 MIL 53 - 55 26 27 +1 CINN 48 - 60 21 27 +6 PITT 46 - 62 25 21 -4 SD 53 - 55 33 20 -13 ARZ 52 - 56 30 22 -8 LA 48 - 60 27 21 -6 SF 47 - 61 24 23 -1 COL 40 - 68 18 22 +4 Rec @ 108 1st 54 2nd 54 Diff BOS 62 - 46 30 32 +2 NYY 57 - 51 27 30 +3 TOR 56 - 53 28 27 -1 BAL 52 - 56 30 22 -8 TB 42 - 66 19 23 +4 CHIW 70 - 38 36 34 -2 CLEV 57 - 51 25 32 +7 MINN 55 - 53 32 23 -9 DET 52 - 56 26 26 0 KC 38 - 70 17 21 +4 LAA 62 - 46 31 31 0 OAK 61 - 47 21 40 +19 TEX 54 - 54 31 23 -8 SEA 47 - 61 23 24 +1

Frayed Knot Aug 20 2005 07:53 PM

Time for the 3/4 season update. Records shown are as they were at the (approx) 1/4, 1/2 & 3/4 marks in the season. 40 Games 81 Games 120 Games ATL 23 - 17 44 - 37 69 - 51 PHIL 18 - 22 40 - 41 64 - 56 WASH 22 - 18 50 - 31 63 - 57 FLA 24 - 16 42 - 39 63 - 57 NYM 21 - 19 41 - 40 61 - 59 StL 25 - 15 51 - 30 76 - 44 HOU 15 - 25 39 - 42 64 - 56 CHIC 18 - 22 40 - 41 58 - 62 MIL 19 - 21 38 - 43 58 - 62 CINN 14 - 26 31 - 50 54 - 66 PITT 19 - 21 35 - 46 51 - 69 SD 24 - 16 44 - 37 59 - 61 ARZ 23 - 17 39 - 42 56 - 64 LA 22 - 18 38 - 43 55 - 65 SF 19 - 21 34 - 47 53 - 67 COL 12 - 28 28 - 53 44 - 76 40 Games 81 Games 120 Games BOS 23 - 17 46 - 35 70 - 50 NYY 21 - 19 42 - 39 66 - 54 TOR 21 - 19 41 - 40 63 - 57 BAL 26 - 14 44 - 37 60 - 60 TB 14 - 26 27 - 54 47 - 74 CHIW 28 - 12 55 - 26 74 - 46 CLEV 17 - 23 45 - 36 64 - 56 MINN 24 - 16 46 - 35 63 - 67 DET 19 - 21 38 - 43 58 - 62 KC 11 - 29 26 - 55 38 - 82 LAA 23 - 17 50 - 31 69 - 51 OAK 16 - 24 35 - 46 67 - 53 TEX 21 - 19 43 - 38 67 - 53 SEA 16 - 24 41 - 40 52 - 68

Giant Squidlike Creature Oct 06 2005 11:33 AM

No 162-game mark?

Nymr83 Oct 06 2005 12:11 PM

i have hte exact stats for the 54 game mark at home, i can post them later if anyone wants to compare to the later 2/3 of the season

Frayed Knot Oct 07 2005 10:07 AM

OK, if you really want it ... TEAM Wins - 1st 1/3 Wins - 2nd 1/3 Wins - Last 1/3 Final Record ATL 29 33 28 92 - 72 PHI 29 28 32 88 - 74 NYM 28 26 29 83 - 79 FLA 28 28 27 83 - 79 WASH 28 30 23 81 - 81 StL 35 33 32 100 - 62 HOU 20 39 30 89 - 73 MILW 26 27 28 81 - 81 CHIC 29 25 25 79 - 83 CIN 21 27 25 73 - 89 PITT 25 21 21 67 - 95 SD 33 20 29 82 - 82 ARZ 30 22 25 77 - 85 SF 24 23 28 75 - 87 LA 27 21 23 71 - 91 COL 18 22 27 67 - 95

Frayed Knot Oct 07 2005 10:18 AM

TEAM Wins - 1st 1/3 Wins - 2nd 1/3 Wins - Last 1/3 Final Record NYY 27 30 38 95 - 67 BOS 30 32 33 95 - 67 TOR 28 27 25 80 - 82 BAL 32 20 22 74 - 88 TB 19 23 25 67 - 95 CHIW 36 30 29 99 - 63 CLE 25 32 36 93 - 69 MINN 32 23 28 83 - 79 DET 26 26 19 71 - 91 KC 17 21 18 56 - 106 LAA 31 31 33 95 - 67 OAK 21 40 27 88 - 74 TEX 31 23 25 79 - 83 SEA 23 24 22 69 - 93

SI Metman Oct 07 2005 10:29 AM

Gotta give the MFY credit for that strong last 1/3 of the season.

Nymr83 Oct 07 2005 11:57 AM

the 82 win padres? thats sad. sadder still is that they only need to go 78-86 to win that dvision. another good argument for the old 2 divisions per league.

Valadius Oct 07 2005 12:31 PM

Actually... it's 78-84.

Edgy DC Oct 07 2005 12:34 PM

There were division winners with low win totals in the two-divsion alignment also. So I've heard.

Nymr83 Oct 07 2005 12:42 PM

Edgy DC wrote: There were division winners with low win totals in the two-divsion alignment also. So I've heard. but it is obviously statistically less likely to happen. and even the '73 mets were over .500...just barely but over is over, my gripe with the nba/nhl has always been that i hate the idea of a team that win half their games or less in the playoffs.

Frayed Knot Oct 07 2005 01:10 PM

The thing about the extra divisions is that no matter how heavily you "unbalance" the sked toward intra-division play, the fact that your in-division opponents now represent a smaller piece of the whole makes the sub-.500 winner that much more likely. The NHL & NBA have their own problems in that they simply let too many teams into the post-season but the NFL is going to get bitten by this also now that they've gone from 5 team divisions (where fully half of the league's games were intra-divison) down to 4 (where they're now under 38%). I think they had two 8-8 playoff teams last year but at least those were WCs. They'll have a 7-9 division winner soon enough, it's only a matter of time. In '73 it wasn't that the NL East got smushed by the west (well, they did but it wasn't as lopsided as you might think) it's that they just beat each other up which "accordian-ed" the division towards the middle. Still, part of what "saved" the .500 mark was that each team played 90 of it's 162 in-division. Now, teams are down to below half and Interleague makes the dreaded turkey playoff team more likely since now not even each league as a whole is guaranteed of being .500 - and indeed the AL got the better of the NL this season. The "brain"-trust at MLB needs to remember all this if/when they ever get the idea to go to 32 teams teams of 8 4-team divisions. So if you happen to hear someone proposing such a system please beat the scoundrel into a bloody pulp at your earliest convenience. You'll be doing your fellow baseball fans a favor.

Edgy DC Oct 07 2005 01:18 PM

]Now, teams are down to below half... And some peeps complain that they're sick of seeing the same teams. One of those things that make me wonder if some baseball fans actually like baseball.

Frayed Knot Oct 07 2005 01:25 PM

Now imagine not only the 8 4-team division set-up but also the "regional realignment" that many talk about; like one where the NYM, NYY, Bos & Phil comprise one division. How sick of the Phils & Sawx do you think NY fans would get seeing them 40 times/yr each?!? And even seeing each division opponent as many as 20 times per year still only gets you 60 of 162 games (37%) within the division. It would be the worst of both worlds.