The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[Benjamin Grimm]

I also can't help but think if Ryan Howard. (Without having looked up his numbers.)

[Frayed Knot]

Pujols OPS/OPS+ @ age 29 = 1101 / 189
at age 37: 672 / 80
So a loss of 429 OPS points or from a hitter 89% better than league average to one 20% below


Cabrera @ 29 = 999 / 164
at age 37 (a partial season) = 746 / 104. His full seasons at 36 & 38 were 744 / 97 and 701 / 95


The lesson being that of course Pete can be a DH at that age. He can be one now but his position is hardly the point.
It's that even if he agrees to only an eight-year deal what the team (and fans) should expect is a significant diminishment
in his offense over the length of the deal.
Plus he's not starting at as high a level as Pujols or Miggy--or Howard or Judge or Freddie for that matter, a quintet
with eight MVPs among them. Pete's best OPS+ to date is 147 and that was his rookie season. Pujols never had an OPS under 150
for the first ten seasons of his career. Miggy was north of 150 in 10 of his first 13 seasons with two of the three 'under' years coming prior
to him being old enough to buy booze.

[Edgy MD]

And he's attempting to perform under (supposedly) stricter PED enforcement.

[metsmarathon]

That could also mean that his body may not already be being pushed beyond its natural limits… but also means that he wouldnt have as ready access to magical healing elixirs.

[ashie62]

Two relievers that the Mets were linked to, Matt Moore and Robert Stephen have gone elsewhere which blows

Without any expensive signings this off season wouldn't the money to sign Pete be readily available?

I understand the Mets are in full rebuild but I would be more comfortable with Pete remaining while waiting for the wunderkinds to make their mark

I hope Pete doesn't get fat from here on and get old real quick

[Edgy MD]

It's not a question of what's available.

I have the money available to buy a boat, but it probably wouldn't be the wisest move.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I wouldn't say that they're in "full rebuild". This is an adjustment year, but it's not a back-up-the-truck year.

[Frayed Knot]

I don't think it is either, although whether it is or isn't has little to do with the topic on which this thread is based.
This is not about whether Pete is on the team this season as much as it is what are the owner's and POBO's plans
for the long term of a 1B/DH/Slugger who is eligible to be a FA in nine months and will turn 30 in ten.

[Lefty Specialist]

However much you wind up paying him, you'd probably pay more than that to replace his offense. And yes, you'll have to go longer than you want, which means some down years at the end of the deal. Ryan Howard and the Fielders were FAT. Pete Alonso is not fat. Big, but not fat. I'm betting he can keep himself in shape well into his 30's. Show him the money.

This is certainly an adjustment year, but it should be the only one. To 2025 and beyond!!!!

[metirish]

I have absolutely no issues with what Stearns is saying here , predictably Mets Twitter is in meltdown mode

[ashie62]

Stearns is stating the obvious here

Scott Boras client, what else would you expect?

Pete's walk season will be compared to Aaron Judge's early and often

[Frayed Knot]

So these first five weeks of this season have thrown an interesting wrench into the P.A. free agency tour.
Right now he (and McNeal) is/are basically the worst hitter(s) on the team.

[metirish]

I think Pete seems the type that he can't let go the previous bad at bat , it's eating him up , long way to go, but damn, he best on himself

[Frayed Knot]

Add to the list of cautionary tales, one Paul Goldschmidt.
- a 981 OPS/177 OPS+ season and an MVP in his age 34 season in 2022
- he then fell to 810/120 in 2023. Still good but a big fall.
- and while it's too early to call this season a disaster, it's certainly a disaster so far as we approach the 1/4 point in the season.

Now the good thing from the Cardinals standpoint is that if this fall looks like it'll be permanent this is the final year of his contract
just as he turns 37 in September. But imagine if this start does foreshadow the type of player he'll be from this point forward and
he was signed, as some are advocating for Pete, through age 38 or more?

[metirish]

Ah here , what a load of utter bollox

[Centerfield]

I'm on board with standing ovations for Mets any time.

Back to the contract. He'll be 30 in the first year of his deal. If it takes 7 years to lock him down, he might still be productive for 4-5 years of that deal. Goldschmidt, as you mentioned is now in his age 36 season. A better bet might be 3/4 years. And then you hope that he remains somewhat productive on the back end.

Of course, that doesn't hold if you look at Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols. I think a few factors play in there. I think the shift played a big factor in Ryan Howard's decline. If you're making outs every time you pull the ball, it probably messes with your mechanics a bit. And with all sluggers during that era, I wonder if some of them were roided up in the early part of their careers, then put the needles away once testing got more stringent and the big contract was secured.

No proof of that, of course, just wondering.

As for Pete. To me, he doesn't seem like the player who would age well. But he'd almost certainly end up the career Mets leader in HRs, could be borderline HOF candidate, and would get his number retired. There's some value to that as well.

[metirish]

[Edgy MD]

Gosh that's getting ahead of things, no?