Monday DH Scenarios

[Frayed Knot]

Odds are a harder to figure out since the chances of any one result aren't exactly 50/50.

Using the generic odds of each game being 50/50 therefore the odds of 3 wins = 12.5% 2 wins = 37.5%, 1 win = 37.5%, 0 wins = 12.5% for all three clubs,
those 30 scenarios where the Mets clinch outright by Sunday, while they are 46.9% of all possibilities [30/64 = .469], have a 40.6% cumulative odds of
occurring.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Since all of the games feature good teams playing other good teams, the coin flip method may be more accurate than it otherwise would.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah.
One can argue that factoring in home field advantage (typically around 53% in baseball) should play a role.
Taking the location into account ups the home team's odds of a sweep from 12.5% to 14.9% [.53 x .53 x .53 = .148877]
and it drops their odds a being swept down to around 10.4% [.47 x .47 x .47 = 10.3823]
but you're really just playing along the margins.

[whippoorwill]

You forgot to divide that by the square root of 1645.15 and subtract the number of rolls of paper towels in all the even numbered office areas


Seriously guys relax and enjoy

[batmagadanleadoff]

You forgot to divide that by the square root of 1645.15 and subtract the number of rolls of paper towels in all the even numbered office areas


Seriously guys relax and enjoy

Amen!

_______________________


The Athletic summarizes the over 1,000 NL possibilities over the last weekend (including the Dodgers and Padres) and the 64 possibilities for the three teams fighting for the last two NL playoff spots -- the Mets, Braves and DBacks.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/579649 ... ibilities/

A few takeaways:

The Mets cannot be eliminated before Monday’s doubleheader;

What would render Monday’s doubleheader completely unnecessary?

There are a couple scenarios in which the National League playoff field is set and seeded by Sunday night. This would require:

• A Royals sweep of the Braves

• The Padres to take two of three from the Diamondbacks

• The Mets to win the series over the Brewers

In these cases, the Padres would host the Mets and the Brewers would host the Diamondbacks. The Braves would be eliminated.

The last time a rescheduled regular-season game after the end of the season determined playoff qualification was 1973, when the Mets won the first game of a doubleheader with the Cubs to clinch the NL East. (The second game was not played.)

Is there a chance of a mutually beneficial split?

[***]

So, is there a chance the Mets and Braves work something out to ensure both teams advance? There are scenarios where that would be the case, if both teams enter Monday with one fewer win than Arizona. However, given the decades-long rivalry between the two franchises, as evidenced by their inability to work out a better contingency plan for these last two games, it’s hard to imagine either side looking at such an arrangement as mutually beneficial.

No mention of the DBacks recently losing two to the nothing-left-to-play-for Giants. (Deduct two points for critical analysis).

[batmagadanleadoff]

Also, an interesting idea in the reader comments to that article: let the #1 seed choose their opponent:


Mike N.
It’s ridiculous that the “reward” for being the 1 seed is having to face the winner of the two hottest teams, whereas the 2 seed gets either an awful division winner or the team with the worst record in the whole field. MLB needs to rethink their bracket or at least re-seed after the wild card round.
Like



@Mike N. Everything should be reseeded after the wild card round. Or, up the intrigue and let the #1 seed choose their opponent of the available teams.

[Chad ochoseis]

It was odd explaining to my non- Mets fan friend that it makes no difference whether the Mets go into Monday even with the Braves, one game behind, or two games behind. And similarly, it makes no difference whether the Mets are one game ahead or two games ahead.

[metirish]

[Chad ochoseis]

It's smart. They can pitch Sale against KC, win, and root for the Brewers. Or they can pitch Sale against the Mets and not have to scoreboard watch. I'm surprised the Mets aren't saving Manaea.

[ashie62]

I wish I had studied Calculus this hard

Personally I liked 4 divisions with the winners moving forward

[Lefty Specialist]

Mets control their destiny- and Milwaukee is tuning up for the playoffs. Get the wins day by day. I'm OK with Manaea pitching. If he does well it's more pressure on the Braves and DBacks.

If the Braves are really saving Sale for Monday, I wonder how he pitches on 11 days rest. He last pitched on September 19.

[rchurch314]

Mets control their destiny- and Milwaukee is tuning up for the playoffs. Get the wins day by day. I'm OK with Manaea pitching. If he does well it's more pressure on the Braves and DBacks.

If the Braves are really saving Sale for Monday, I wonder how he pitches on 11 days rest. He last pitched on September 19.

All of them control their own destiny.

I say it is dumb to save Sale. You need wins, and whoever pitches today can pitch game 2 of the WC series. But sure. Lots more clarity after tonight's games.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think (with a seat-of-the-pants count) that 22 of the 64 possibilities will be eliminated from that chart on the previous page.

[Gwreck]

A lot of scenarios that would result in the games on Monday being cancelled or not mattering just went off the board.

Mets	Diamondbacks	Braves	Scenario
0	0	1	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
0	0	2	ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday
0	0	3	ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday
0	1	1	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	1	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	1	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	2	1	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	2	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Game 1
0	2	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	3	1	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	3	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	3	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
1	0	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
1	0	2	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
1	0	3	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
1	1	1	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
1	1	2	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
1	1	3	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
1	2	1	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1
1	2	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Gm 1
1	2	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
1	3	1	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
1	3	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
1	3	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses game 1
2	0	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	0	2	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
2	0	3	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
2	1	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	1	2	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	1	3	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	2	1	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
2	2	2	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
2	2	3	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
2	3	1	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1
2	3	2	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1
2	3	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Gm 1
3	0	1	NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games cancelled
3	0	2	NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only
3	0	3	NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only
3	1	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC only
3	1	2	NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only
3	1	3	NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only
3	2	1	NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games cancelled
3	2	2	NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only
3	2	3	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
3	3	1	NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only
3	3	2	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
3	3	3	Clinch with 1 win on Monday

[metirish]

[Gwreck]

And some of the lesser scenarios gone with the Diamondbacks loss:

Mets	Diamondbacks	Braves	Scenario
0	0	1	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
0	0	2	ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday
0	0	3	ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday
0	1	1	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	1	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	1	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	2	1	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
0	2	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Game 1
0	2	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
1	0	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
1	0	2	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
1	0	3	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
1	1	1	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
1	1	2	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
1	1	3	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC
1	2	1	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1
1	2	2	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Gm 1
1	2	3	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
2	0	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	0	2	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
2	0	3	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
2	1	1	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	1	2	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	1	3	NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only
2	2	1	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
2	2	2	Clinch with 1 win on Monday
2	2	3	Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC

[Centerfield]

Braves aren’t losing this weekend.

Mets only hope is the DBacks collapse.

We’ll need two on Monday.

[Centerfield]

So now.

If the Mets win and DBacks lose, we are in.

If the Mets win and DBacks win, the Mets need one win on Monday.

If the Mets lose tomorrow, and the DBacks lose, they’ll need one game on Monday.

If the Mets lose and the DBacks win, the Mets will need to win both games on Monday.

So for our purposes, it’s better if the Braves win tomorrow so they have nothing to play for on Monday. Is that right?

[Gwreck]

Heading into Sunday:

Mets	Diamondbacks	Braves	Scenario
L	L	L	ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday
L	L	W	ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday
L	W	L	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
L	W	W	Clinch with 2 wins on Monday
W	L	L	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
W	L	W	NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only
W	W	L	Clinch with 1 win Monday
W	W	W	Clinch with 1 win Monday

[Chad ochoseis]

I was working on this exact table just as you posted it. Basically, the Mets' magic number vs the Diamondbacks is 2, and the Braves' magic number vs the Diamondbacks is 1.

For the Mets and Diamondbacks win, Braves lose scenario, the Mets and Braves are both in if they split the DH. Otherwise, it's the Diamondbacks and whoever sweeps.

[Fman99]

I wonder, in a scenario where the Monday DH only matters for seeding, would they still drag the Mets all the way to ATL just to determine that? Or would they use tiebreaker scenarios and give those teams Monday off?

[metirish]

[batmagadanleadoff]

Yeah. The Mets still control their own destiny. If they win two of three, they're in. If the DBacks lose today, they only have to win one of three. And in a worst case scenario where the Mets lose today and the DBacks win, they could still get in by winning two games tomorrow.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Another signal that there's too many teams in the playoffs