The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[Buck4Prez]

What's an extra two or three million dollars to a guy that will make between $150M and $200M by the time he's 40 between baseball salaries and endorsements? How much money does a person need? Why would he walk away from all of that for an extra million dollars a year?

Cohen made that much money in the time it took you to write this.

[kcmets]

Just sign the fucking contract Pete and stop dicking around.
Then get your polar ass down to PSL and get to work.

Chop chop, we've got a division to win!

[batmagadanleadoff]

What's an extra two or three million dollars to a guy that will make between $150M and $200M by the time he's 40 between baseball salaries and endorsements? How much money does a person need? Why would he walk away from all of that for an extra million dollars a year?

Cohen made that much money in the time it took you to write this.

He probably did.

[Centerfield]

I just don't get what all the fuss is about these supposed "leaks" or whatever they are. The parties can divulge to the press whatever they wanna divulge about the negotiations

I didn't say there was a fuss over it. I said the information was leaked. Yes, parties can divulge information. If they do it publicly, it's a disclosure. If they do it anonymously it's a leak. I'm of the belief that parties leak information with intent.

Also, I don't see what kind of an edge Boras gets from this info or leaks or whatever it is. If the info is true, then it's info that the Mets already know. I don't think that Boras is that dumb that he thinks the Mets are gonna go against their plan and crumble just because the dumb and uninformed portion of the Mets fanbase reacts to this info the way that dumb and uninformed people tend to react to things. Is that what Boras thinks is gonna happen? That the Mets are gonna be goaded into paying Alonso way more than they were willing to pay because some idiot calls up Mike Francesca and blows a gasket on live radio over Alonso's unsigned status? Maybe that's how things worked under the Wilpons. Not that they'd have the money to even be in the Alonso talks.

Which side is more inclined to leak this "info" to Martino. Stearns? Not a chance. The Mets front office doesn't leak info. Also, they have nothing to gain by publicly stating that they are moving on from Alonso. If they wanted to move on, they'd simply tell Boras and pull their offer. They don't need the public to know. They certainly don't want their plan B options thinking that they now have the upper hand. It makes no sense for the Mets to release this info.

Boras on the other hand, is hoping to create a public frenzy. The calls into WFAN like you describe. Outrage on twitter. He's hoping that it will spur Steve Cohen to get involved (hence the Jim Duquette line "Steve Cohen may have to get involved"). Would David Stearns leak that to the press? "Hey Jim, go on SNY and say 'Steve Cohen may have to get involved'." We all know what's happening. We all know where Duquette is getting his info.

And no, I said before that I don't think it will work. I think Cohen hired Stearns to stop himself from paying more than market value. And I don't see any of this having an effect on Stearns. But I think Boras is pulling out all the stops to get as much money from the Mets as he can. In the end, I think (or maybe I just want to believe) that Alonso told Boras he wants to go back to the Mets, and that Boras job was to get as much money as possible. I think Boras is doing whatever he can in a tough situation.

The Mets are offering Alonso in the 23M-24M AAV range. Freddie Freeman, a better first baseman, got a $27M AAV contract. Miguel Cabrera got the highest AAV ($31M) in baseball history for a first baseman. But Cabrera was a triple threat -- not only capable of leading the league in HR's and RBI's like Alonso, but in batting average as well, unlike Alonso.Cabrera was a four time batting champ. He was also toast by his age 32 ssason. If the Mets offer is so bad, some team would have topped it by now. ST is one month away and the big ticket FA purchases are always the first dominoes to fall during the off-season. The Mets offer sounds very fair. Maybe the Mets left a little wiggle room to raise their offer. But they're definitely in the ballpark of what seems fair and reasonable.

I agree with all of this. Which is why ultimately I think he will come back. My only real concern is Toronto. I think they can be a wild card in this. They're so desperate to get players and spend money I can see them beating the Mets offer. If they do, the Mets would have to match or else Pete is gone.

I also think that some other team would need to blow the Mets offer out of the water. Because if they just top it by a little bit, why would Alonso take the little bit of extra money to walk away from his cherished team and the great city that he came to love? And he'd be in line to shatter most of the Mets franchise major batting records. That surely means a lot to Alonso. What's an extra two or three million dollars to a guy that will make between $150M and $200M by the time he's 40 between baseball salaries and endorsements? How much money does a person need? Why would he walk away from all of that for an extra million dollars a year?

I agree too. But let's say, for argument's sake, that the Blue Jays offer Alonso a contract similar to what they offered Santander. 5 years. $90-$100M. Does Stearns match? I don't think he does. And then if you're Pete, do you take a 3 year deal for $70M, or a five year deal for $95M? I don't know.

[Centerfield]

I mean logically. Why would the Mets publicly state they are pivoting to other options. That's the dumbest thing they can do. The effects are:

1. Other teams are encouraged to bid on Alonso, thinking that maybe the Mets are out and won't match it.
2. Public outcry from angry Mets fans
3. Negatively impacts the Mets leverage with plan B options

None of these things may end up making a difference. But ultimately, only Boras/Pete would want this kind of buzz out there.

[kcmets]

Can I draw another line in the sand or would that just lower my
already incredibly low creditability here?

Just end this NOW!! Give him ten million more and a yacht lol...

[Edgy MD]

I didn't write The Art of the Deal or anything, but one thing revealing an intent to pivot to other options is supposed to do is make your target panic that you're walking away and taking the best deal with you.

If you want to get Anne Hathaway in your picture, but you can't or won't go higher than $20 million, and she's still balking, one technique is to have your assistant interrupt the meeting to tell you that Emma Stone is on line two.

I'm not endorsing it, but it's a thing that people do. It's more effective when it's not a bluff, of course, and you really do have Emma Stone available to pivot to, and really would be perfectly happy with her in your stupid movie.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think what CF is saying is that there's no advantage to the Mets in releasing their pivot plans to the public. It certainly makes sense to do that as a bargaining ploy in the private negotiations with Boras and Alonso.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I guess it could be a way of letting the player and his team know you're serious, and you aren't afraid of the public heat you might take for walking away.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I'd be curious what Boras and Pete are asking for. You'd think if it was anywhere close to what the Mets are offering, they would have split the difference and called it good by this point.

[Edgy MD]

Another way of splitting the difference is putting the difference into a reachable incentive clause.

　　"You won't go higher than $30 million but we want $33 million. We are talking a difference of 10%."

　　　　"Yeah, but all the guarantee is on your end, and all the risk is on ours. If and when your guy gets hurt ... ."

　　"My guy doesn't get hurt."

　　　　"We all get compromised eventually. And overpaying for your guy to play for us is one thing.
　　　　Overpaying for your guy to not pay for us is quite another. It cripples good, wealthy teams."

　　"But my guy has a track record of not missing games! He plays through pain."

　　　　"Fair enough. Let's put your guarantee in writing. He gets a $30 million salary, plus another
　　　　one million if he appears in 100 games, one million more if he appears in 125, and a total of
　　　　$33 million if he appears in 150."

　　"You can't just take it on faith that my guy answers the bell?"

　　　　"Sounds like you're losing faith yourself."

　　"Hmmmm ... let me talk to my guy."

[Benjamin Grimm]

From what we've been hearing, which may or may not be accurate, Boras is asking for $91 million over three years, and the Mets are offering about $70. Splitting the difference would mean the Mets are going up by $10 million. It's only about $3 million per year, so maybe that will happen.

[kcmets]

I left out an important detail. Not just the yacht, but a wait staff, a
captain as well as several crew members.

That's how that Pomposity Guy rolled, before going to the pen...

[Centerfield]

I think what CF is saying is that there's no advantage to the Mets in releasing their pivot plans to the public. It certainly makes sense to do that as a bargaining ploy in the private negotiations with Boras and Alonso.

Exactly this. Walking away is an effective tactic. But it only needs to be communicated to the adverse party. There's very little advantage, if any, to going public with the move. And if the Mets wanted to walk away, they need to actually walk away. That means pull the offer and pivot. If the offer remains on the table, no one believes anyone has pivoted. Regardless of whatever has been disclosed.

So let's start there. Did the Mets pull the walk away move? No. Not if you believe the reports from last week.

Andy Martino:

The Mets have pivoted to plan B, post-Alonso. They now consider it the most likely outcome that Alonso will sign elsewhere.

Joel Sherman:

The Mets made what they perceived as a last-ditch effort to sign Pete Alonso by offering him a three-year contract in the $68 million-$70 million range, and when that was rejected, began their pivot away from their slugging first baseman

Jon Heyman:

With a gap in talks remaining, Mets are looking more seriously at other options and a return for Pete Alonso seems much less likely now

These reporters came out with nearly identical takes, all at the same time. None of them mention that the Mets pulled their offer. Only that they are discouraged, or have started their pivot. If anything, all of them imply that the Mets offer remains on the table.

So, what do we think happened? Did the Mets leave their offer on the table and publicly disclose that they are pivoting? What's the sense in that. You have no credibility so long as the offer remains. The only thing that makes sense is that the Mets have done nothing but leave that offer on the table, and that Boras is feeding this narrative to the press. And when you look at the info that's come out, in the order it's come out, and who has reported it, it's very clear who's leaking this info.

[Centerfield]

From my viewpoint, there are three scenarios.

Scenario A
The Mets pulled the walkaway move. They pulled their offer to Pete. But, the reporting is different, and couches a reunion as "less likely", without mentioning that the offer was pulled. If this happened, I think the reporting would be "Mets out on Alonso".


Scenario B
The Mets did not pull the walkaway move. But they wanted to create some heat, so Stearns calls Sherman, Heyman and Martino and says "Hey, I want you to report that we are discouraged with negotiations and that we are pivoting to plan B". At the same time, they leave the offer on the table. Could this be what happened? Possibly. But how much credibility do the Mets have if these negative reports are out there, while the offer sits waiting to be accepted?


Scenario C
The Mets have had their three year $70M offer on the table for some time. Pete and Boras were to bring back any competitor's offer but have been unable to secure any. Without a need to bid against himself, Stearns stands pat.

Boras leaks to the press that Pete is willing to accept a short term deal, but only with the Mets. Because Pete loves the Mets.

Boras leaks to the press that the Mets and Pete remain far apart on AAV, even after the concession by Pete to take three years. Suggests "Steve Cohen may have to get involved"

Boras leaks to the press that the Mets have imposed a deadline.

Boras leaks the terms of the Mets offer to the press. 3 years, $70M. An offer that is $20M less than the $90M rumor floated around previously.

Boras leaks that the Mets have pivoted away from Pete. And that a deal is now less likely.

During that time, David Stearns stands pat with his offer.


For my money. I think it's C. And I think Stearns is confident that eventually all this bluster will blow over, and eventually Pete will have to sign the offer that's on the table. Unless, as I mentioned before, Toronto does something nutty and offers Pete terms similar to Santander. And if they do that, I guess Pete might be gone.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I just don't get what all the fuss is about these supposed "leaks" or whatever they are. The parties can divulge to the press whatever they wanna divulge about the negotiations

I didn't say there was a fuss over it. I said the information was leaked. Yes, parties can divulge information. If they do it publicly, it's a disclosure. If they do it anonymously it's a leak. I'm of the belief that parties leak information with intent.

When I wrote about the "fuss" over these disclosures, I was writing about you. I thought you were making a big fuss over these disclosures. Which is fine. That's what makes these boards interesting. But to me, these leaks or disclosures or whatever are one big nothing-burger as far as I'm concerned. I don't think there was any strategy or chess game being played by the release of that info. I think that it's somebody privy to the negotiations deciding to disclose some of that info to the press anonymously and nothing more.

I never thought the disclosures were going to cause the Mets to crumble or fold or to weaken their bargaining position. And more importantly, I never thought that the Boras/Alonso camp ever thought that, either. It's just info being released. Any reasonably sentient fan knows that without knowing Boras's demands, the info is practically useless anyway.

Me personally, I don't think these talks are dead and there's a very good chance that Alonso and the Mets finally come to an agreement. I say this because Alonso wants very badly to remain a Met and everybody knows this. Alonso has made no attempt to hide this. If the Mets offer was unreasonably low, some other team would've topped it by now.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Can't believe all this radio silence and apparent inactivity in the Alonso negotiations. Maybe the Alonso camp really overplayed its hands. Pete's OPS+ has been dropping for four straight seasons and he looked like absolute horseshit for many long stretches of last season -- like the worst side of Dave Kingman. By most fielding metrics, he's about the worst fielding every-day first baseman in baseball. What's Boras's backup plan? Some desperate hail mary wish that Freddie Freeman sustains a terrible injury in ST and the Dodgers and all their money come to the rescue?

[metirish]

Right? Three weeks and the Mets are reporting to Spring Training

[Centerfield]

I just don't get what all the fuss is about these supposed "leaks" or whatever they are. The parties can divulge to the press whatever they wanna divulge about the negotiations

I didn't say there was a fuss over it. I said the information was leaked. Yes, parties can divulge information. If they do it publicly, it's a disclosure. If they do it anonymously it's a leak. I'm of the belief that parties leak information with intent.

When I wrote about the "fuss" over these disclosures, I was writing about you. I thought you were making a big fuss over these disclosures. Which is fine. That's what makes these boards interesting. But to me, these leaks or disclosures or whatever are one big nothing-burger as far as I'm concerned. I don't think there was any strategy or chess game being played by the release of that info. I think that it's somebody privy to the negotiations deciding to disclose some of that info to the press anonymously and nothing more.

I never thought the disclosures were going to cause the Mets to crumble or fold or to weaken their bargaining position. And more importantly, I never thought that the Boras/Alonso camp ever thought that, either. It's just info being released. Any reasonably sentient fan knows that without knowing Boras's demands, the info is practically useless anyway.

Me personally, I don't think these talks are dead and there's a very good chance that Alonso and the Mets finally come to an agreement. I say this because Alonso wants very badly to remain a Met and everybody knows this. Alonso has made no attempt to hide this. If the Mets offer was unreasonably low, some other team would've topped it by now.

Yeah, I was trying to communicate (clearly not effectively) that I thought all the disclosed info was a bunch of nothing. Basically that neither side had budged. As you put it, I agree it's all a big nothing burger.

I disagree that the Boras camp released it with no intent. I think Boras figured let's roll the dice and see what happens. There are plenty of owners that would cave to public pressure. And as recently as a year ago, Cohen might have been one of them. I also think Boras wanted to signal to other teams that the Mets were out. If there is a perception that whatever bid is offered would just be taken back to the Mets, I think Boras was trying to get out in front of that.

I'm also in the camp that the Mets and Alonso eventually come to an agreement. My only real concern is that the Blue Jays do something crazy and the Mets decline to match.

[Edgy MD]

I disagree that the Boras camp released it with no intent. I think Boras figured let's roll the dice and see what happens. There are plenty of owners that would cave to public pressure. And as recently as a year ago, Cohen might have been one of them. I also think Boras wanted to signal to other teams that the Mets were out. If there is a perception that whatever bid is offered would just be taken back to the Mets, I think Boras was trying to get out in front of that.

You should share this with Steve Cohen if you ever happen to run into him.

[Centerfield]

He didn’t offer much. Said he’d love to have Pete back. Hopes it will happen.

Someone said “so we’re not out on Alonso?” He smiled. Kinda chuckled? Said don’t believe everything you hear in the media.

[metirish]

And the beat goes on

[Centerfield]

And the beat goes on

Alonso signs with Jays. "SEE I WAS RIGHT"

Alonso doesn't sign with the Jays. "SEE I WAS RIGHT"

[Bob Alpacadaca]

What would be Pete's role with the Blue Jays? Vlady has first base, unless there is a plan to trade him. Santander seems like a DH type unless they are going to throw him in the outfield.

[batmagadanleadoff]

What would be Pete's role with the Blue Jays? Vlady has first base, unless there is a plan to trade him. Santander seems like a DH type unless they are going to throw him in the outfield.

I agree. It's a tough squeeze. It looks like Alonso's playing time in Toronto will come at the expense of someone who's already expected to play many games. And on top of that, the signing is gonna cost them a draft pick. Maybe they're fairly certain that Guerrero will eventually leave. I dunno. I guess they could move Guerrero to third base, too.