How Will He Thrive in Twenty-Five?: Juan Soto

[Edgy MD]

The Crane Pool Forum Series that brightens up every February and March is back! Posters compete for big prizes as they try to predict the coming seasons of Mets figures!

We open with Juan Soto! Juan is the defending third-place finisher for the American League MVP, having previously finished sixth, second, fifth, and ninth in previous seasons across two leagues. In fact, we really shouldn't be describing him as "defending" his finish at all, as he is no longer participating in the America League. Juan has been broadly described as MLB's best hitter, and while there are certainly other guys who one may make a case for, his consistency and health have been pretty impressive since he first came up, largely thanks to an on-base percentage that never fails to shine.

The downside isn't much. He's been carrying extra weight in recent years, but as he is only 26, he probably has a few years before that starts to stick. Frequently, big names on the offensive side that the Mets have brought in — even the ones that have flourished like Carlos Beltran and Francisco Lindor — have tended to skid in their first season. But as Soto has already been through the New York adjustment, and his OBP (as noted) has tended to be slump resistant, that even though nothing is set in stone, there is little reason not to be optimistic.

So, how optimistic do you want to be for Juan Soto in his first season as a Met?

[MFS62]

.285 - 42-122 Top 3 in MVP voting
By August he will have a candy bar named after him.
Later

[ashie62]

Mr Soto

.279 31-108

Struggles some like Lindor did in his first year. This is his fourth organization and that makes me take notice

The other side of this is .302 45-121 MVP

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is his fourth organization and that makes me take notice.

He wasn't traded because he was bad. He was traded, both times, because he was so good he would be too expensive to sign. That issue, obviously, has been resolved.

[Cowtipper]

Seems to happen a lot with new big name Mets.

25 home runs, 80 RBI, a .260 average, and fans left and right saying he's done and was a waste of money.

Then next year, he'll become the Juan Soto we all thought he could be.

[metirish]

I do not anticipate any first year blip , .290 35 HR , 126 RBI

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm not at all sold on the idea that players have to "adjust" to New York, but we certainly have seen players, like Lindor and Beltran, disappoint at least to a degree when coming to the Mets, and then bouncing back. Or like George Foster, not bouncing back. Or like Johan Santana, thriving immediately. So who knows? But while it's Soto's first year with the Mets, it's his second in New York, so I think he'll be fine. He's going to put up some very healthy numbers, and if the Mets don't go deep into October it won't be his fault.

[smg58]

.280/.410/.530 with over 100 runs and RBI and 35 HR.

[Benjamin Grimm]

[Cowtipper]

Other examples of new big name Mets underwhelming in their first years in New York:

Edwin Diaz—

Year One: 2-7 W-L, 5.59 ERA, 74 ERA+
Year Two: 2-1 W-L, 1.75 ERA, 246 ERA+ (in the shortened 2020 campaign)

Francisco Rodriguez—

Year One: 3-6 W-L, 3.71 ERA, 110 ERA+
Year Two: 4-2 W-L, 2.20 ERA, 179 ERA+

Tom Glavine—

Year One: 4.52 ERA, 93 ERA+
Year Two: 3.60 ERA, 110 ERA+

(looking back, it's kind of crazy that we had the Tom Glavine on our team for five seasons)

Jay Bruce—

Year One: .219/.294/.391 line, 84 OPS+
Year Two: .256/.321/.520 line, 121 OPS+

Granted, those are mostly pitchers, but a Mets adjustment is fairly common. Also granted, some guys don't actually need one, like Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner, who were rather excellent right off the bat.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Granted, those are mostly pitchers, but a Mets adjustment is fairly common. Also granted, some guys don't actually need one, like Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner, who were rather excellent right off the bat.

I don't see any trend one way or the other. Mike Piazza, Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter and Carlos Delgado excelled instantly. And George Foster didn't go through a period of adjustment. The beginning of his decline coincided with his arrival in Flushing. Foster the Met would never again be the lethal MVP-caliber hitter he was with the Reds.

[ashie62]

Jason Bay was bad in his first and second years

[Benjamin Grimm]

Jason Bay was a disaster. But as stated above, there's really no pattern here. Some players start out strong and remain production. Some start out awful and remain awful. Some start out good and decline. Some start out bad and get better. You really can't use the past in these cases to assume anything about Soto or anyone else.

[Edgy MD]

I predict Soto will exactly reproduce Frank Thomas' slash line of 1995 — .308 / .454 / .606 // 1.061. And what the hell — he will also match The Big Hurt's power numbers of 40 homers and 111 RBI.

He will provide three or four moments — probably three — in the outfield which will suggest his future home will be at DH sooner rather than later. Alternatively, he'll make some big plays on defense too, but rather than serve as an argument that he has a long future in the outfield, it will feed the narrative that you don't want him hurting himself on defense.

He will experiment with facial hair, instantly leading to speculation that the Yankees' grooming policy came up — if only passingly — in their failed negotiations with Soto's reps, and led to the Yankees reviewing this policy. The Yankees will deny all of this, but the end result will be that the notion doesn't seem that much of a stretch. In fact, the nature of their denials will be such that they actually lend credence to the theory.

[MFS62]

Jason Bay was a disaster. But as stated above, there's really no pattern here. Some players start out strong and remain production. Some start out awful and remain awful. Some start out good and decline. Some start out bad and get better. You really can't use the past in these cases to assume anything about Soto or anyone else.

That's Baseball, Suzyn.
Later

[Channel9]

I do not anticipate any first year blip , .290 35 HR , 126 RBI

I am simpatico with this.

(looking back, it's kind of crazy that we had the Tom Glavine on our team for five seasons)

Fuck Tom Glavine.

[MFS62]

Fuck Tom Glavine.

I am simpatico with this.

Later

[Lefty Specialist]

Fewer homers from not playing in the Bedpan in the Bronx, but still a stellar year. .296/30/110.