Yeah, that's a mean of 1000 or whatever simulations, and presumably that mean is dragged down by the 300 or however many simulations in which he gets hurt early and misses all or most of the season. But (a) he hasn't gotten hurt yet, and (b) his injuries last year weren't of the kind that required reconstructive surgery or anything, so if you have a more optimistic prediction than that, I am all ears.






