Nimmo and the Mets have a deal

[roger_that]

If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

[MFS62]

If you're Buck, do you strategize with him on getting his walks total back to where it was? Or leave him be?

In other words, is Nimmo's decline in walks a problem or a one-year blip?

Ralph Kiner is famous for saying that home run hitters drive Cadillacs.
Nimmo was in the last year of a contract looking toward free agency and he might have amped up his power stroke in anticipation of a big payoff. Now that he got the big contract, he may go back to doing what he does best, get on base.
Or maybe not.
But I'd give him this year to be able to answer that question.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

Ask a stupid, attention craving question ....

If you're Buck, do you strategize with him on getting his walks total back to where it was? Or leave him be?

In other words, is Nimmo's decline in walks a problem or a one-year blip?

I'm not sure why you use the phrase "In other words". Your two dumb questions aren't synonymous. Which means you've asked two distinct dumb questions. Also, I'd have to be Buck to answer your first question, but not necessarily Buck to answer your second one. And again, "problem" and "one year blip" aren't mutually exclusive because it could be a one-year problem. Which theoretically, could be synoynmous with one-year blip. I guess your query for the 19th centerfielder on the Mets depth chart didn't draw enough interest to satisfy you.

Are we trying too hard to impress?

[Ceetar]

If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

scroll up? I talked about it in my post. tl:dr Maybe it's an Eric Chavez philosophy thing. He's swinging at more pitches outside the zone and it's bad for his personal numbers. He should absolutely stop it. It's a problem, precisely for the reason's Eno describes in this tweet. But if it was a conscious choice to swing more, it's not a problem so much as an "easily" fixable approach thing. Especially going into a second year where advanced scouting is going to reflect him swinging at more pitches outside of the zone. He should readjust and set a career high BB%.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

Isn't it implied in your original dumb question that you're looking for responses?

Anyways, me I'd trade Nimmo right now. I recently discovered in my thesis that I invented that baseball players peak and then they decline right after. Nobody else knows this And Nimmo's coming off his best season ever. So I could probably bring in a haul for Nimmo in a trade.

[Frayed Knot]

If nothing else, this deal gives the Mets several years to find and groom and legit CF'er. Despite Nimmo morphing himself into a considerably better CF than I thought he'd
ever become based on his early career, I've long thought his best fit to be in left and that's likely where he's going to wind up by the time this contract hits its halfway point
so it would be real nice if they could manage to have one in the pipeline sometime before the present decade starts to run out.



P.S., there's no way Nimmo intentionally altered his approach strictly for purposes contract negotiations only to plan on altering it back right after. Being a success at hitting
is tough enough without trying to chase some old-timey baseball bromide from 3/4 of a century ago, especially one that hasn't even been true in decades.

[vtmet7]

If you're Buck, do you strategize with him on getting his walks total back to where it was? Or leave him be?

In other words, is Nimmo's decline in walks a problem or a one-year blip?

I think Nimmo's walk obsession has been a byproduct of Sandy Alderson's directives in the organization...and with Buck/Chavez/Eppler influence last year, Nimmo focused a little more on: "if it's a good pitch to hit, pounce on it"...Which, IMO, as long as he's not chasing bad pitches is a good thing...

I'm sure that most teams around the league know that Nimmo goes up there trying to draw a walk; and pitchers with good control are probably not going to walk him...

There were some interesting splits for Nimmo (some good and some not so good):

From July 29 until the end of the season, Nimmo hit: .298/.398/.455/.853;
From Opening Day until May 27, Nimmo hit: .293/.386/.452/.838;
In between (May 31 thru July 28), Nimmo hit: .237/.311/.390/.701 (appears that he was playing hurt since he missed May 28 thru May 30, and was a pinch runner on May 31);

Home: .234/.321/.366/.688;
Away: .309/.406/.492/.898;

First pitch (swinging or getting HBP): .358/.374/.605/.803;
Batter ahead in count: .272/.492/.473/.965;
Even count: .310/.323/.456/.779;
Pitcher ahead in count: .232/.263/.368/.631;

by the way, Nimmo had 29 hits (and 2 HBP) on the first pitch of a Plate Appearance...
of those 29 hits, he had 10 XBH: 4 Home Runs; 2 Triples; 4 Doubles....
that's a pretty good percentage of his Home Runs and Triples on the season...
In other words, in 12.6 % of Nimmo's Plate Appearances; Nimmo had 25% of his Home Runs and 29% of his Triples;

[Ceetar]

Nimmo didn't particularly square up any more balls last year than previously. His power numbers, his barrel numbers, his "good contact" stuff, were all pretty on-par.

He sacrificed a few walks and a few strikeouts for a few more ground ball outs and singles. His weak contact was up. His GD% up. his LD% down. Pull numbers down.

Again, he sacrificed walks and strikeouts for ground ball outs and singles, but he sacrificed more value than he gained. I guess you could wonder if he's just not as attuned to the zone as he was previously, but the higher swing% makes me thing it was on purpose. Prioritizing contact does seem to fit with some of the things Buck and Chavez said, but it was detrimental here, which jibes with what we know about batting.

[vtmet7]

Nimmo didn't particularly square up any more balls last year than previously. His power numbers, his barrel numbers, his "good contact" stuff, were all pretty on-par.

He sacrificed a few walks and a few strikeouts for a few more ground ball outs and singles. His weak contact was up. His GD% up. his LD% down. Pull numbers down.

Again, he sacrificed walks and strikeouts for ground ball outs and singles, but he sacrificed more value than he gained. I guess you could wonder if he's just not as attuned to the zone as he was previously, but the higher swing% makes me thing it was on purpose. Prioritizing contact does seem to fit with some of the things Buck and Chavez said, but it was detrimental here, which jibes with what we know about batting.

it will be interesting to see how those types of numbers change for left handed hitters in 2023...Don't know how many times that Nimmo was screwed by the shift, but lefties typically get screwed more than righties do...Volgelbus particularly hits into shifted outs a lot...

[Frayed Knot]

Nimmo also beat the shift -- particularly with two strikes -- more than most LH hitters.

[Edgy MD]

If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

Ask a stupid, attention craving question ....

Have you ever just tried to stop?

[Ceetar]

nobody gets "Screwed" by the shift. hit the ball hard and it doesn't matter. There are only 8 guys out there. As i said, Nimmo used the whole field more last year than ever, and as a result they didn't shift on him as much. his wOBA was .357 unshifted, .321 shifted. (103 shifts)

The difference from 2021 is that when shifted in 2021 he was .415 wOBA versus .350 unshifted.

I mean, all in all his 2022 was still really good. He just traded some OBP for soft contact, and it didn't really work out for him, though he did still crush a bunch of pitches. But he lowered his launch angle and missed the sweet spot more, because he was making a lot more bad contact at out of the zone pitches. Essentially he opted to softly ground out into the shift instead of taking a few pitches and striking out (but walking) more.

His average HR trot though, increased from 18.29 in 2021 to lead MLB to 19.21 in 2022 which was merely 3rd.

[roger_that]

One thing I'll be following closely is whether the trend continues or reverts. I don't remember the exact stats, but from watching him, it seemed that he swung at first pitches more last year than in previous years. His HRs and triples jumped in 2022, but oddly enough his overall SLG declined slightly (because fewer singles) so he seemed to be trying to take advantage of early strikes thrown in the "knowledge" that he'd be taking, a strategy (if I'm correct) that can be used only for so long before the opposing pitchers wise up. if I had to bet, I'd say that 23 triples and HRs (7 + 16) will be his career peak as he sees fewer fat first pitches in 2023 and beyond.

WHOOPS! I looked it up and he actually peaked earlier with 25 triples and HRs (8 and 17).

[Ceetar]

he saw the exact same percentage (61.9) of first pitch strikes at 2021. He swung at 1.4% more (30.9) first pitches than 2021, and 1.3% more overall, so pretty much didn't change his first pitch approach at all. It's like maybe a pitch more a month.

[roger_that]

he saw the exact same percentage (61.9) of first pitch strikes at 2021. He swung at 1.4% more (30.9) first pitches than 2021, and 1.3% more overall, so pretty much didn't change his first pitch approach at all. It's like maybe a pitch more a month.

Thanks. Interesting to know that my subjective thinking (more HRs and fewer BBs = swinging at fat first pitches) was ex post facto thinking.

[Edgy MD]

I tend to still think that his approach changed, but it's not particularly detectable within the data of a single season, because the change occurred as the season progressed.

It's not even detectable if you split the season in half. But cut it up just a bit more granularly and voila! Look at this inverse bell curve! It's like, one third of the way through the season, he got off his game, had a crap middle of the season, but then corrected about 2/3 of the way through. By September, we were looking at something like peak Nimmo. It's certainly too much to ask that that's the guy we get over the course of the contract, but if it is, happy days!

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
March/April	18	16	76	63	11	17	3	1	3	7	0	0	12	13	.270	.387	.492	.879	31	2	0	1	0	0	0	.298	119	159
May	25	24	110	94	18	29	5	3	0	10	0	0	11	16	.309	.385	.426	.811	40	2	2	1	2	0	3	.363	103	130
June	25	25	110	98	13	25	6	1	2	7	0	1	5	20	.255	.327	.398	.725	39	0	6	0	1	0	1	.299	81	101
July	25	25	118	108	20	24	4	0	5	15	0	1	9	22	.222	.288	.398	.686	43	1	1	0	0	0	3	.235	70	92
August	29	29	131	110	17	31	7	0	2	5	0	0	15	23	.282	.397	.400	.797	44	4	6	0	0	0	0	.341	101	129
Sept/Oct	29	29	128	107	23	33	5	2	4	20	3	0	19	22	.308	.417	.505	.922	54	0	1	1	0	0	1	.358	130	16

[G-Fafif]

Good headline (bottom) becomes better headline (top).

[batmagadanleadoff]

If anyone has an intelligent answer to my question, I'd be interested in hearing it.

Ask a stupid, attention craving question ....

Have you ever just tried to stop?

Have you ever tried to write a post like the one you just wrote-- but addressed to your buddy kc on my behalf? You had 10 years to do so and the situation merited you writing that post dozens of times. But you never did and so here we are with me still holding deep rooted grudges. Or what about when this pushy blowhard started with me, unprovoked, and then threatened to put his boot up my ass whenever the hell he feels like putting his boot up my ass --- in five or six different posts? Not only havent you, but then on top of everything else, you then take his side. And KC's, . You're the only one. What does that say, as if I dont know. Rhetorical question.

Whatever. Not that I expect an honest response from you on this.Youll just cry out martyr which carries as much intellectual sense as the Mets themed phrase last piece to the puzzle. Carry on about Nimmo. Knock yourself out spending 45 minutes researching this blowhard's attention craving ridiculous question. He no doubt posited his Nimmo query mainly to see how many others he could get to respond rather than out of a sincere interest in the answers themselves. 16th centerfielder on the Mets depth chart? Is he serious? A national crisis over Agee's mispronunciation instead of just a mistake? Oh my! Call the FBI. Get President Biden to the podium.

[Edgy MD]

It's a yes-or-no question.

[kcmets]

but then on top of everything else, you then take his side. And KC's, . You're the only one. What does that say, as if I dont know.

Truth be told, we're divorced after ten years of marriage. It was in the prenup
that he always take my side. It's in our separation agreement as well. I have a
very good legal staff. He got the Ryan and Seaver rookie cards, the bastard...

[batmagadanleadoff]

It's a yes-or-no question.

How many times does he have to threaten to put his boot up my ass whenever the hell he feels like putting his boot up my ass before you finally respond on my behalf? Six times? Ten times? Thirty? A million? Never?

Yes or no?

Me, I'm too tired now from the horrible horrible occurrence involving Agee's mispronunciation on BRef. Just horrible. A day that will live in infamy. Think of the children.

[batmagadanleadoff]

By the way, BRef's pronunciation isn't entirely off (accent on 2d syllable). That's exactly how Agee's name was pronounced when Mets fans chanted his name: Ay-GEE!. Ay-GEE! Ay-GEE! So spare me the fucking dramatics. Horriible occurrence. Oh, my. Call the National Guard!

[vtmet7]

I guess that I don't understand the drama but...

how much of this thread is actually about Nimmo?

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I guess that I don't understand the drama but...

how much of this thread is actually about Nimmo?

I like Nimmo! I’m glad he’s back! I love that he always seems happy to be there. Love the enthusiasm, the smiles, the running to first on the walks. Love his humility and that he shares his faith. The leaping catch against the Dodgers might have been my favorite moment of the year - and the best Topps Now card. I love that he worked hard to improve his defensive skills. I bought one of the grab bag things in the authentics shop and got a framed photo with a piece of a game-worn Nimmo road jersey.

I worry that he gets hit by pitches so much because of the injury risk - the Marte hand injury probably cost us first place - but that’s a small thing.

[vtmet7]

I guess that I don't understand the drama but...

how much of this thread is actually about Nimmo?

I worry that he gets hit by pitches so much because of the injury risk - the Marte hand injury probably cost us first place - but that’s a small thing.

good point with the HBP...prior to Buck taking over, it seemed like the Mets might be receptive to getting hit by pitch (not saying that they were doing a Jason Kendall and leaning into pitches; just saying that they saw it as another way of getting on base so they didn't get offended by it)...Nimmo, McNeil, Alonso and Marte all get me worried when they get drilled...and it looked like it really bugged the shit out of Buck when it happened