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Re: Memories of Dom Smith

Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 12:00 pm
by nymr83
Edgy MD wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:11 pm I don't know anybody projected to hit 40 homeruns in the big leagues at 18, but yes, he was projected to develop power, by both the Mets and outside rankers. I mean, look at him. He's got the strength, he's got the swing, and he's got the bat speed. And he has shown what he can do, power-wise, if not consistency-wise. I think if you review reports from the time, you'd generally see a 65 rating for his power potential.
Here is baseball prospectus from august 2014:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/p ... portid=177
Flashes above-average raw power in BP; linear swing path lacks much lift at present, leading to abundant topspin in games; whip-like bat speed through the zone; player shows ability to get the barrel to the baseball on a consistent basis, but a lack of leverage, an out-of-sync lower half, and a contact-heavy approach limits the over-the-fence pop at present; thick/strong lower half bodes well for potential power output in theory; needs plenty of mechanical adjustments and approach alterations, but player flashes the necessary ingredients to accumulate average power production in the form of doubles and mid-teens home run output.
the bold is mine. they gave him a "50" future power grade. the overall report certainly doesnt read "1st rounder" to me.

Re: Memories of Dom Smith

Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 12:17 pm
by Edgy MD
Sure, but that's just one bullish guy.

I wish they got more value out of the pick too, but I sure didn't know then who that was going to be. Baseball America ranked Smith 14th, MLB.com ranked him 16th, and Bleacher Report Prospect Pipeline had him 16th as well. All are below the Mets' 11th slot, but all firmly entrenched in the first round.

But hey! They got Jeff McNeil 11 rounds later!

Re: Memories of Dom Smith

Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2023 12:38 pm
by nymr83
Jeff McNeil's skill set feels like an even more improbably success story. Of course, in round 12 who the heck cares, you can take a guess at that point and there is very little downside to being wrong.