Let's talk about Yoshinobu Yamamoto

[Lefty Specialist]

Get this guy.

[metirish]

Absolute banter

[Edgy MD]

What does Metsource say?

[Cowtipper]

Successful Mets Japanese imports:

Kodai Senga
Hisanori Takahashi

Semi-successful Mets Japanese imports:

Nori Aoki
Ken Takahashi
Masato Yoshii

Japanese players that have played for the Mets:

Ryota Igarashi
Kazuhisa Ishii
Takashi Kashiwada
Satoru Komiyama
Kazuo Matsui
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Hideo Nomo
Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Shingo Takatsu

Italicized means they were initially signed by the Mets.

The Mets have not had a great deal of success with Japanese players, whether they initially signed them or not. Unless they can get him for a great price, I would hesitate in signing him as I don't think the Mets would catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row.

[Edgy MD]

If I were to accept your categorizations at face value, I'd like to compare that success rate side by side with the team's success rate with US-born players, Canadian players, Venezuelan players, etc.

Also, I'd want to compare it to other teams' success rate with players of Japanese origin.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Besides being culturally dumb, the list above doesn't take into account expectations. Many of the guys signed in the Steve Phillips Era were only asked to provide back-end relief help or a reserve bat; most lived up to that modest expactation and some exceeded it. Igarashi was the only real clunker. Something about him didn't sit right with the Mets and he spent most of the year in AAA.

[Cowtipper]

The point I was trying to make is that the hype/money the Mets put into signing Japanese guys usually doesn't breed the results we expect, and it happens with Japanese guys a lot. For every Ichiro or Hideki Matsui, there is a Kosuke Fukudome, a Kaz Matsui, a Kei Igawa, a Hideki Irabu, etc. I remember the hype around Kaz, Igarashi and Shinjo. Perhaps they were so hyped because of their novelty at the time, but we have seen time and again that in the long run the hype they receive and the output they produce do not match.

The list was made arbitrarily, but I think it's fairly accurate. Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matsuzaka, for example, were expected to be out of this world; they finished with ERAs and ERA+'s of 4.24/97 and 4.45/99, respectively for their careers.

I don't understand how it's culturally dumb considering all I did was list the players born in Japan who have played for the Mets. Since we're talking about a Japanese player potentially going to the Mets I dare say the list is ... germane.

Don't get me wrong, pound for pound Japanese players produce greater MLB stats than most Dominican guys, I'd say. How many guys do the Mets churn through from Latin America that never advance beyond rookie ball? But it is to be expected as the Japanese guys are going from a major league to a major league. But just as Tuffy Rhodes can go to Japan and become a star, rarely do Japanese guys that come over here match the star power they had over there, because the NPB and MLB are not exactly on the same level. MLB's talent level is still a bit higher than Japan's. So we see a lot of steps down in terms of output when Japanese guys come over here, despite the fact that they seem like they get paid decent money to put up similar star numbers.

All this to say, also, be cautious with signing him ESPECIALLY considering the luck the Mets seem to have with starting pitching.

[Fman99]

I think 7+ years at 30+ million per for a guy whose never thrown an MLB pitch is pretty ridiculous. I get that he's got good stuff but they have no barometer at all as to how it will translate on this side of the Earth. Is he literally three times better than Senga ?

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Shinjo was only expected to be a defensive reserve when he arrived. His flair and early success may have given the impression there was more to him than that but he pretty much overdelivered on his promise.

Kaz Matsui is a different case entirely, he wasn't a bad player--not a great one either-- but he was mostly mishandled by the Mets.

[metsmarathon]

seriously, using kaz and shinjo as examples of why the mets shouldn't go get more japanese players is upside down thinking to me.

we need more tsuyoshi shinjos in baseball. the man was amazing in every sense.

and yeah, kaz is more of an example how the mets fuck up everything they touch sometimes, moreso than that japanese ballplayers are a bad idea.

[kcmets]

we need more tsuyoshi shinjos in baseball. the man was amazing in every sense.

Anyone remember when the Japanese media wanted to take pictures
of Dave Diamond's Shinjo banner in Philly? Ah, mammaries...

[Lefty Specialist]

When Lefty Jr was small, he LOVED Shinjo. He was like a Pokemon character to him. Had a jersey and everything. He was very disappointed when he left.

[Edgy MD]

How do we quantify expectations?

I don't know that there was a meaningful consensus on what one guy expected from Shingo Takatusu or Norichika Aoki when they came to the Mets and since they both came after the deadline to Met teams falling out of the picture, I can't imagine either moved a whole lot of tickets or merchandise. I know I didn't expect much from either, but was happy to have them. Both came as late season free agents, having been previously released, so neither probably cost the team much in salary beyond the minimum.

And both played pretty much OK, though neither was around long enough to appear in a media guide, but they appear in different categories above.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Dreamt last night we got this guy.

[metirish]

Fman please reply to this

[metirish]

Stark

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — He’s 25 years old, six months younger than Adley Rutschman. He has thrown zero pitches in American professional baseball, making him a theoretical unknown.

So if you didn’t know Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s name or story and we asked: How much money would a major-league team pay a guy like this, what would you guess? Six years, $52 million? That was the original Daisuke Matsuzaka contract with the Red Sox

What about six years, $126 million? That was the original Yu Darvish contract with the Cubs.

Or maybe seven years, $155 million? That was the original Masahiro Tanaka contract with the Yankees.

All right then. The guessing is closed. Now here’s the verdict: Those guesses are guaranteed to be wrong, wrong and wrong.

Yamamoto won’t begin meeting with teams on his short list until next week, major-league sources tell The Athletic. But already, the Winter Meetings buzz from officials with multiple clubs is that his deal will hit record levels. And not just for a pitcher from Japan, but also very possibly for any pitcher in history not named Gerrit Cole.

Eight years, $240 million? That seems to be the most conservative guess from interested teams at this point. But 10 years, $300 million? That would no longer shock anyone. And of course, in Yamamoto’s case, a hefty posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes, his team in Nippon Professional Baseball, will be piled on top of that deal.

Now let that price tag sink in. Can we agree this is no Cyber Monday sale?

Just for the record, other than Cole — who signed for nine years, $324 million with the Yankees in December 2019 — no pitcher on this side of the Pacific has ever inked a deal worth $300 million-plus. And beyond Cole, no pitcher has even crashed through the $250 million barrier. Next highest? The $245 million the Nationals bestowed (regrettably) on Stephen Strasburg after his 2019 postseason heroics. So we’re talking about nearly uncharted territory.

Yet some team — the Mets? The Giants? The Yankees, perhaps? — seems prepared to guarantee huge dollars, and possibly 10 years, to a pitcher who is 5-foot-10 … who has never pitched in a five-man rotation … who has never pitched a season with an American baseball … and who has a multitude of other baseball and cultural adjustments ahead of him.


It’s kind of amazing when you think about it that way, isn’t it? So when baseball’s general managers appeared Tuesday at their only mass media availability of the Winter Meetings, we made sure to bring up Yamamoto’s name with as many of them as possible.

Why are teams so energized by the possibility of signing him? And why are they willing to accept the risks that a contract like this will pose? Here’s a sampling of what some of those executives see — and not just the ones who are gearing up to possibly pay the right-hander.

Asked if Yamamoto would look good in Yankees pinstripes, GM Brian Cashman didn’t bob, weave or dodge the question at all.

“Yes, I would agree with that,” he said. “I personally saw him. We’ve scouted (Orix) extensively. And I think he’s going to be a really successful pitcher anywhere he pitches on the planet. He’s a free agent, and we’ll see where it takes us.”


Rangers GM Chris Young, meanwhile, hasn’t scouted Yamamoto in person. And the Rangers aren’t viewed as Yamamoto shoppers. But Young is a former pitcher, a student of pitching and interested enough to have watched a ton of Yamamoto video. So not surprisingly, his review sounded much like Cashman’s.

“Well, just he’s really, really talented,” Young said. “I mean, it’s amazing. It’s a unique fastball profile, great command, competitiveness, and it’s explosive. And really, I think it bodes well to translate to Major League Baseball very, very well.”

We could recount lots more scouting reports with those characteristics. But take our word for it. If we’re merely talking about stuff, talent, athleticism, and Yamamoto’s sensational track record in Japan, there is no debate, anywhere, about what feels like a potential one-of-a-kind international phenomenon.

There’s also no need to deluge you with a slew of stats. But it’s hard to ignore this one: Over the past three seasons in Japan, Yamamoto’s ERAs were 1.39, 1.68 and 1.16. Whew.

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Who was the last qualifying starter in our fair land to spin off ERAs under 2.00 three years in a row? How about Grover Cleveland Alexander — in 1915, ’16 and ’17.

Since it’s the 21st century, Yamamoto actually gets compared more to Pedro Martinez than Grover Cleveland Alexander. But again, let’s make this clear: It isn’t the elite talent level that’s in question. It’s this:

In the case of a smallish pitcher from another continent, there’s so much more to it. How can any team be confident about guaranteeing 10 years — or even eight — to a man with so many adjustments to tackle and so many questions to answer? That’s the $300 million question. So we asked it.

Is it fair to call Yamamoto unique? Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t bring himself to use that word.

“I don’t think he’s unique,” said Hoyer, who also scouted Yamamoto in person last season. “I think he’s super-talented. I don’t think he’s unique. But I think certainly there have been a lot of really good pitchers that come here from Japan, and he’s certainly in that conversation.”

So was the journey to Japan to watch Yamamoto in person enough to provide that reassurance? Hoyer politely declined to get into anything he learned from that trip. But Cashman — who lucked into seeing Yamamoto pitch a no-hitter in September — was as unfiltered as ever when he was asked: “What did you learn from seeing him in person?”

“Nothing, to be quite honest,” Cashman replied. “It was just a really enjoyable experience. The fact that it was a no-hitter was really spectacular. It’s special whether you see that in high school, college, or the pro ranks. It made my trip worthwhile, flying all that way to watch the artistry play out, which was, again, really moving. For him to do that for his fans and his team as they were going through their playoff effort. It was cool.


“(But) I didn’t learn anything new. I had already been educated enough on him over the course of our scouting years knowing the type of talent he was. He just showed it. But it wasn’t surprising.”

Let’s say this again, though. It isn’t the talent that’s raising the questions. It’s the uncertainty of what’s ahead and how Yamamoto will handle it.


Major-league teams have faced that uncertainty for years, obviously. But is it possible there is less of it now than 10 or 15 years ago? No exec we spoke with was more adamant about that than Pirates GM Ben Cherington, who was with Boston for the pursuit of Matsuzaka over a decade and a half ago.

“He’s been an outstanding performer on the world stage,” Cherington said of Yamamoto. “Not just in Japan, but on the world stage. Every team has access to pitch data now. You can do the biomechanical assessment from a distance. He’s really good, you know? It’s not that hard to make the translations.”

Asked what he learned from the Matsuzaka experience that would apply now to the ability to project the longevity of someone like Yamamoto, Cherington made clear it’s a different universe, here in 2023 — and in more ways than most people would expect.

“Between that time and now,” he said, “with what has changed, it fundamentally changes our understanding of just how to measure certain things more precisely. So the things teams can do now, in terms of biomechanical analysis, without being in person with the guy, is just way more advanced than it would have been at the time that we were trying to do the same thing with Dice-K.

“You know, pitch-grade evaluation, as far as using data to assess pitches, is so different than when we were going through the same process with Dice-K. We were going through reports based on subjective scouting reports, and as much due diligence on character as we possibly could. Sure, we’re looking at performance, but it’s pretty top-level … like just, what were the raw results? A lot of the stuff that’s under the hood and available today just wasn’t available then. So it is a different ball game.”

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But is that data really enough to enable teams to predict the future — over the next decade, remember — of a player who is only 25 and has never been here or done this? Some teams are skeptical of that — and staying out of this sweepstakes.

An executive of one of those teams said he’s convinced that only one piece of data truly explains this frenzy over Yamamoto — the magic number, 25. As in: 25 years old.

That exec, who was granted anonymity so he could speak candidly, said there’s so much fluctuation in performance of all players, no matter where they’re from, that “I have a hard time predicting what a player is going to do next year, let alone in 10 years.”

So in a sport in which teams are increasingly reluctant to invest long-term in players in their 30s, this exec said he’s convinced that the temptation to sign a potential international superstar who is still five years away from turning 30 is fueling all of this. And he’s probably not wrong.

But does that mean some team is about to make a massive — not to mention massively expensive — mistake? That’s the biggest question no one in the sport can answer. The simple answer is: Let’s hope not.

“What I hear and see about him looks extremely exciting as a scouting person,” Orioles GM Mike Elias said. “He seems like a bright talent. And it’s great for our game when we get the best players from Japan.”

So if the bidding is headed to heights never seen before for one of those players, you know what the GMs doing the bidding would say to that? Ha. What else is new?

“Markets are always supply and demand, right?” Cashman said. “That’s what drives things. That’s the way the world works. Players might get more than maybe you might be comfortable with. But again, when teams are competing and they have that desperate need, that’s the business of baseball.”

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So Mr. Yamamoto, welcome to America. We hope you’re every bit as Pedro-esque as people say you are. And if not, well, never forget: It’s just business.

— The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty contributed to this report.


https://theathletic.com/5115966/2023/12 ... ed-article

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's a risky signing, no doubt, but for a team with pockets as deep as the Mets have, it's a risk worth taking. I'll be very disappointed if Yamamoto ends up elsewhere.

[A Boy Named Seo]

There's definitely sticker shock when comparing his theoretical price tag to big name Japanese pitchers who came before him, but I don't really get the uncertainty over whether he'll be great or not, or whether the 5-man rotation or culture change will stunt his performance. Whether he'll be great for 10 years, sure, but we've seen enough from Nomo, Daisuke, Darvish, even our own Kodai Senga to know this guy's gonna ball.

[metirish]

It's a risky signing, no doubt, but for a team with pockets as deep as the Mets have, it's a risk worth taking. I'll be very disappointed if Yamamoto ends up elsewhere.

Same , some talk that the MFYs are in the driver's seat

[A Boy Named Seo]

It's a risky signing, no doubt, but for a team with pockets as deep as the Mets have, it's a risk worth taking. I'll be very disappointed if Yamamoto ends up elsewhere.

Same , some talk that the MFYs are in the driver's seat

And hot and heavy for Soto. I don't want to imagine those two 25-year olds anchoring the MFY until 2030.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Will Sammon from the Athletic reports that Cohen flew to Japan and met with Yamamoto last week. Morosi from MLB is reporting that the Yankees haven't met with him yet but are going to do so next week. Funny to read that the Yanks are the front-runners but haven't had a face-to-face yet. I want to hear Mets fan in Amish Country's take on this.

[metirish]

Wow , I guess he calls his people to get the private jet ready and just goes, must be nice

[Benjamin Grimm]

Smart move, too. I expect that Yamamoto would appreciate the effort and see it as a sign of respect.

[Edgy MD]

Get Bruce Wilpon on the case.

[metirish]

Get Bruce Wilpon on the case.

Used to be our secret agent in Japan , God be with the days