pivot pivot PIVOT!!!

[batmagadanleadoff]

I hope you're right. But I don't see it. I think it's a football saying? You are what your record says you are. And the Mets were a 75 win team last year and have even less pitching going into 2024. They were 20th in runs scored, and 18th in team ERA. That's a lot of ground to make up.

The 18th and 20th ranked teams are midldle of the pack. At the middle, the teams are so tightly packed together, that the difference between an 18th or 20th ranked team and a 10th or 13th ranked playoff qualifying team is so tiny and negligible that I'm sure the difference is all luck and randomness.

If the Mets aren't already a playoff contender, they're not that far off. 84 or 85 wins gets you into the tournament. TOURNAMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baseball's not a science. No sport is, but especially, especially baseball. It's a flawed, imperfect sport with more luck than a sport should rightfully have.

[ashie62]

Were pivoting to a 74 win season at this pace

This is a rebuild until action says otherwise

Probably even dump Pete

Very disappointing off season

[A Boy Named Seo]

Were pivoting to a 74 win season at this pace

This is a rebuild until action says otherwise

Probably even dump Pete

Very disappointing off season

Nah, it's no rebuild, it's never been. They're >$250MM for '24 and already at $140MM for '25 on six players. Those aren't "rebuild" numbers.

And Yamamoto was the action. They offered over $300MM on one dude. By all accounts, they don't want to get tangled in the luxury for a decade to come on 30-somethings like Blake Snell, which I'm great with. Their plan at this point doesn't appear to be top secret - one year, lower-dollar contracts on bounce-back guys for this season and hopefully make the playoffs. Then tax reset for '25 with guys like Mauricio, Acuña, Vasil, Christian Scott, etc. hopefully thriving.

When you're not sure, just see if they're following the Dodgers. That's always been the blueprint.

[MFS62]

When you're not sure, just see if they're following the Dodgers. That's always been the blueprint.

Oh shit!
Y'mean they're gonna' move?


Later

[Edgy MD]

It profiles more as a shore-up than a rebuild so far from my perspective.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm just dropping into this thread to mention that it's almost February, and Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are still out there.

I find this surprising. We're only a few weeks away from "pitchers and catchers". I'm not expecting that either of these guys will be Mets, but I do wonder what's going on. Yamamoto has been out of the way for a while now.

[MFS62]

There was a report (SNY?) that said the Mets are still looking to add a hitter.
Are J.D.Martinez and Jorge Soler still available?

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

They are. Andy Martino said recently (on Mets Hot Stove) that he doesn't expect that to happen, but he won't rule out Steve Cohen making an impulsive change of mind.

I would love to see them add Soler but the conventional wisdom (for whatever it's worth) is that Vientos and Stewart will be doing the DHing this year.

[Centerfield]

I think no one has any idea what the Mets are going to do. Martino least of all. So everything we are hearing is just guessing.

I don’t see how it makes sense for the Mets to run this team out there. For just money, they can easily turn this team into a team that projects a win total in the high 80s. That’s good enough to get you to the dance with this new playoff format.

I’m guessing (hoping?) Stearns is waiting on the market and will pounce on bargains as we get closer to spring training.

[ashie62]

Are we going with Vientos DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor at DH

[MFS62]

Soler and J.D. Martinez are still available, but Soler is reportedly speaking with SF. (SNY?)
Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

It doesn't look like they're going to sign either of those guys. I think this year it's going to be Vientos until and unless he shows he's not good enough.

[Lefty Specialist]

We're little more than a week from pitchers and catchers and this team looks woefully inadequate, with some gaping holes. Sure, there are BODIES there, but not productive bodies. Baty at 3rd, Vientos/DJ Stewart as DH, Severino, Manaea, Houser in the rotation, Marte in RF, and a box of Munchkins in the bullpen do not inspire confidence.

[MFS62]

And they'll be asking a rookie manager to make chicken salad out of those chicken droppings.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I don't think those are chicken droppings.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I don't think we're going to have the pitching depth to keep up with Philly or Atlanta but I am not nearly as down on the offense. An underwhelming rookie season doesn't condemn Baty to failure for the rest of his days; he will be better. Vientos I have less faith in my if they're really trusting the DH role to him they probably have faith.

Alvarez will be more consistent, you'd think, and McNuts will bounce back. Marte was an excellent piece when healthy and he appears so now? Bader and Taylor will shore up the outfield depth and both guys are a little dangerous with the bat. We have Lindor and Alonso and Nimmo too.

Hoping the Mets will be the team that wins 7-6 a lot.

[MFS62]

Hoping the Mets will be the team that wins 7-6 a lot.

I think they will have to.
Later

[cal sharpie]

I pretty much agree with JCL. If the team plays well, there will be opportunities in the trade market if we want to make a playoff push.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I pretty much agree with JCL. If the team plays well, there will be opportunities in the trade market if we want to make a playoff push.

I'm here, too. They're better than they were last year, when everything seemed to go wrong.

[MFS62]

PECOTA projects them for 84 wins and making the playoffs.
I don't see this team being 9 games better than last year.
We'll see.

Later

[Edgy MD]

They flipped a not-yet-appeared guy that was half the return on Eduardo Escobar into two big-league players, so I'm guessing they're willing to go deeper into their future talent pool.

pivot pivot PIVOT!!!

This could obviously still break a number of ways, but that "not-yet-appeared guy" was Coleman Crow, who still hasn't appeared for the Brewers after missing 2024 following UCL surgery. He's scheduled to play for Milwaukee in the AFL this autumn.

Meanwhile, the two "big-league players" were Adrian Houser, who was pretty valuable for a month in there when they found a role that suited him, and Tyrone Taylor, who's been pretty valuable for most of the season and isn't done contributing.

Stearns has cashed in a few times with players from his old organization.

[Centerfield]

I like how Mets Insider Andy Martino said that the Mets would not sign JD Martinez and then the Mets signed JD Martinez. Nothing is predictable in baseball except Martino not having a clue what is going on.

Looking back, the Mets jumped from 20th in runs scored in 2023 to 7th in runs scored in 2024. They did this despite down years from Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez. Crazy. Lindor had a great year, but he was pretty good in 2023.

Really the production came partially from signing the aforementioned JD Martinez, but mostly a jump from Vientos, Iglesias coming out of nowhere, and better production from role players like Taylor, Marte, Winker, Bader, and even Acuna.

[Gwreck]

Looking back, the Mets jumped from 20th in runs scored in 2023 to 7th in runs scored in 2024. They did this despite down years from Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez. Crazy. Lindor had a great year, but he was pretty good in 2023.

Really the production came partially from signing the aforementioned JD Martinez, but mostly a jump from Vientos, Iglesias coming out of nowhere, and better production from role players like Taylor, Marte, Winker, Bader, and even Acuna.

Interestingly, Alonso and McNeil had the exact same OPS+ in 2023 as in 2024. The biggest drivers of increase in relative offensive production are, in my view: (1) Vientos; (2) Lindor improvement; (3) Iglesias and (4) Marte improvement.

Martinez/Taylor/Bader/Winker didn’t produce a significant difference in offense than Vogelbach/Stewart/Pham last year. (Taylor and Bader’s defense, that’s a different story).

[Edgy MD]

2023 DHs: .220 / .312 / .403 // .715 in 578 PA | OPS+: 97
2024 DHs: .232 / .332 / .399 // .731 in 604 PA | OPS+: 102